According to a news report, China's fighter jets and destroyers could not track Nancy Pelosi's plane when she visited Taiwan, due to the electronic jamming radiated by US military planes. [1][2]
Electronic warfare, especially electronic jamming, is one of the most critical factors that would determine the conditions of battlefields in the war of the near future.
For example, if China and the US should wage a war over Taiwan, both China and the US will implement the most powerful electronic jamming ever used in a war.
Therefore, it is likely that, because of powerful jamming, both China and the US would never be able to use their electromagnetic radars, electromagnetic signal communications or electrmagnetic homing missiles whether active or passive in the war over Taiwan. Among great powers, Russia and the US has the most excellent electronic jamming technologies. China is catching up rapidly.
In addition, both China and the US would likely destroy their GPS satellites each other. Also, electronic jamming would be applied over GPS signals too.
As a result of electronic jamming and destruction of GPS satellites, the US's so-called smart weapons such as JDAM, cruise missiles and homing missiles that hit targets with pin-point accuracy would never work. [3]
Although terrain contour matching (TERCOM) missile guidance systems would probably work despite electronic jamming, their scope of usage and effects would be limited. TERCOM guided missiles can be used only against fixed targets like air force bases that are usually heavily defended with air defense systems.
Under such heavy jamming conditions, if the US try to achieve the goals of destroying such targets as China's air force bases and China's fleet of landing ships, it would have to resort to tactical nuclear weapons because tactical nuclear weapons can destroy targets with their enormous blasts even if they miss a target by the unit of 100 meters.
Even if the US tactical nuclear weapons would miss China's air force bases or China's fleet of landing ships by 500 meters, the blasts would destroy China's air force bases' facilities and cripple China's amphibious assault ships and landing helicopter docks.
What's more, the US has another reason to use tactical nuclear weapons. Compared to China, the US has less warships and less warplanes in the East Asia. In order to overcome the numerical inferiority, the US would use tactical nuclear weapons.
In the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), the US already proposed the developing and use of tactical nuclear weapons. [4]
When the US dropped atomic bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, it said it was a war for democracy and that the bombs were used to minimize the casualties of US soldiers. The same excuse would be used again by the US.
On the other hand, since the first day of possession of nuclear weapons, China has pledged to "no first use" of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances. China is the only one among the five nuclear-weapon states to have made this pledge.
To counter jamming and decoding, China is now successfully developing quantum communication. If China succeeds in quantum communication for military usage, China can maintain communication even under heavy jamming because quantum communication doesn't require exchange of electromagnetic signal. [5]
Also, it is reported that China has heat-seeking radars that can detect stealth aircraft 300 Km away (the Taiwan Strait is 180 kilometer wide) and scan the entire sky in a few seconds. If that's being the case, China can detect US warplanes and warships even under heavy electronic jamming and destroy them by infrared homing missiles in a Taiwan war. [6]
Having said that, however, if the US would use tactical nuclear weapons against China, China would have to retaliate with tactical nuclear weapons in her attack against US carrier strike groups and US military bases in Japan and Guam.
Thus, it is likely that, if China and the US should wage a war over Taiwan, it would be the world's first nuclear war in which dozens of tactical nuclear weapons would be exchanged and detonated in various places and areas.
Because of enormous blasts of tactical nuclear weapons, the collateral damages would be catastrophic too. For example, if China attack US military bases in Japan, the blasts of tactical weapons would shatter the surrounding residential areas too and produce a large number of civilian casualties. Not only the US bases in Ryukyu Islands but the US bases in the Japanese mainland would be attacked by tactical nuclear weapons.
[US military bases and facilities in Japan]
In addition to the enormous blast, the detonation of tactical nuclear weapons would generate electromagnetic pulse that would blacks-out the electric grid for a year and decimate the critical infrastructure necessary to support a large population. Millions of the Japanese population could perish from starvation, disease and societal collapse.
A war of tactical nuclear weapons would result in hundreds of thousands of or even millions of civilian casualties. [7]
Therefore, China and the US's war over Taiwan needs to be avoided by all means. China can and should make the most of political and diplomatic measures that would be effective to prevent the war.
For example, China can mobilize her business entities including Overseas Chinese to persuade Japanese counterparts to make efforts to prevent a war and support the peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan. If a pro-China peace-oriented government is established in Japan, replacing the current hawkish LDP government, the new Japanese government may declare that China and Taiwan should be peacefully reunified and that Japan would not intervene Taiwan crisis or allow the US to use military bases in Japan for the purpose of a war against China. Here is the detail. [8]
[China's premier Li Keqiang and Japanese Komeito-Party Leader Natsuo Yamaguchi]
As for a diplomatic sphere, it should be noted that over 170 countries have expressed their commitment to one-China principle and condemned Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. China can make the most of the momentum and institutionalize the principle of non-interference in internal affairs into an international treaty and a new UN organization, which would prevent a China-US war over Taiwan. Here is the detail.
Also, if Taiwan military that fears their total disaster and defeat against China stages a coup and removes the current DPP administration from the power, replacing it with a pro-China peace-oriented government, a China-US war over Taiwan would be avoided. Here is the detail.
There are many other measures conceivable. Here is the detail.
Unfortunately, the US is prone to provoke a war with China over Taiwan because it mistakenly believes that a war over Taiwan can be geographically limited to the East Asia. Actually, a war over Taiwan would surely engulf the US mainland too. The US mainland would never remain unscathed.
China and the world nations should work together to ensure the peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan because, once a war between China and the US happens, it would be a disastrous tactical nuclear warfare that would result in hundreds of thousands of or even millions of civilian casualties. That should be avoided by all means.
Thank you.
Reference and notes:
(1) "How Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan set off a new wave of US-China electronic warfare", August 14th 2022, South China Morning Post
(2) There is of course a possibility that China intentionally stopped tracking Pelosi's plane as China did not want to disclose their real capability of counter-jamming. By pretending to be incapable of countering US jamming, China can make a surprise attack against the US next time in a real war. It's a deception.
"All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable." - Sun tzu
There is another possibility that China stopped tracking Pelosi's plane because, if China had kept tracking the plane and tried to prevent it from landing Taiwan, there might have been a dogfight between China's warplanes and US escort warplanes, which could have triggered an escalated large scale conflict.
In retrospect, it was a wise decision for China not to intercept Pelosi's plane because it might have been a US trap. There is a possibility that, if China's fighter jets had come close to Pelosi's plane, Pelosi's plane might have exploded from an unknown cause and crashed. Then, the US would have blamed China for having killed Pelosi and could have imposed the severest economic sanctions against China and mobilized the American people toward a war against China.
Actually, that is the method the US used back in 1898 when a US warship (USS Maine) exploded and sank in Havana harbor from an unknown cause. The US used the incident as an excuse to start a war against Spain.
The US shouted the phrase, "Remember the Maine! To hell with Spain!", alleging that the ship's external explosion had been a torpedo attack by Spain, although Spain's investigation came to a contrary conclusion that the explosion had originated within the ship.
[The sunken USS Maine in Havana harbor]
[a US newspaper with an allegation of Spain's attack]
(3) The US has already started a study on how to wage a war under the condition where GPS signal is not available, including navigation by the stars. See "US military imagines war without GPS", December 19th 2017, Phys.org
(4) "Nuclear Posture Review: US wants smaller nukes to counter Russia", February 2nd 2018, BBC
(5) "China in Past Decade: Leaps and bounds of quantum science innovations", August 28th 2022, CGTN
(6) "China Says Its Heat-Seeking Radar Can Detect Stealth Aircraft 300 Km Away; Scan The Entire Sky In Few Seconds!", August 24th 2022, The Eurasian Times
(7) Some Japanese national security experts warn that, if a war happens between China and the US over Taiwan, economic damage to Japan would be devastating. See 「台湾有事は日本の破滅 海上封鎖されれば台湾もお手上げ」, August 26th 2022, Yahoo Japan News
However, compared to enormous casualties to be caused by a tactical nuclear war, economic damages would be minimal and recoverable. A real issue is probable hundreds of thousands of or even millions of civilian casualties.
(8) "Overseas Chinese gather to promote peaceful reunification", August 28th 2022, CGTN
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
Electronic warfare, especially electronic jamming, is one of the most critical factors that would determine the conditions of battlefields in the war of the near future.
For example, if China and the US should wage a war over Taiwan, both China and the US will implement the most powerful electronic jamming ever used in a war.
Therefore, it is likely that, because of powerful jamming, both China and the US would never be able to use their electromagnetic radars, electromagnetic signal communications or electrmagnetic homing missiles whether active or passive in the war over Taiwan. Among great powers, Russia and the US has the most excellent electronic jamming technologies. China is catching up rapidly.
In addition, both China and the US would likely destroy their GPS satellites each other. Also, electronic jamming would be applied over GPS signals too.
As a result of electronic jamming and destruction of GPS satellites, the US's so-called smart weapons such as JDAM, cruise missiles and homing missiles that hit targets with pin-point accuracy would never work. [3]
Although terrain contour matching (TERCOM) missile guidance systems would probably work despite electronic jamming, their scope of usage and effects would be limited. TERCOM guided missiles can be used only against fixed targets like air force bases that are usually heavily defended with air defense systems.
Under such heavy jamming conditions, if the US try to achieve the goals of destroying such targets as China's air force bases and China's fleet of landing ships, it would have to resort to tactical nuclear weapons because tactical nuclear weapons can destroy targets with their enormous blasts even if they miss a target by the unit of 100 meters.
Even if the US tactical nuclear weapons would miss China's air force bases or China's fleet of landing ships by 500 meters, the blasts would destroy China's air force bases' facilities and cripple China's amphibious assault ships and landing helicopter docks.
What's more, the US has another reason to use tactical nuclear weapons. Compared to China, the US has less warships and less warplanes in the East Asia. In order to overcome the numerical inferiority, the US would use tactical nuclear weapons.
In the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), the US already proposed the developing and use of tactical nuclear weapons. [4]
When the US dropped atomic bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, it said it was a war for democracy and that the bombs were used to minimize the casualties of US soldiers. The same excuse would be used again by the US.
On the other hand, since the first day of possession of nuclear weapons, China has pledged to "no first use" of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances. China is the only one among the five nuclear-weapon states to have made this pledge.
To counter jamming and decoding, China is now successfully developing quantum communication. If China succeeds in quantum communication for military usage, China can maintain communication even under heavy jamming because quantum communication doesn't require exchange of electromagnetic signal. [5]
Also, it is reported that China has heat-seeking radars that can detect stealth aircraft 300 Km away (the Taiwan Strait is 180 kilometer wide) and scan the entire sky in a few seconds. If that's being the case, China can detect US warplanes and warships even under heavy electronic jamming and destroy them by infrared homing missiles in a Taiwan war. [6]
Having said that, however, if the US would use tactical nuclear weapons against China, China would have to retaliate with tactical nuclear weapons in her attack against US carrier strike groups and US military bases in Japan and Guam.
Thus, it is likely that, if China and the US should wage a war over Taiwan, it would be the world's first nuclear war in which dozens of tactical nuclear weapons would be exchanged and detonated in various places and areas.
Because of enormous blasts of tactical nuclear weapons, the collateral damages would be catastrophic too. For example, if China attack US military bases in Japan, the blasts of tactical weapons would shatter the surrounding residential areas too and produce a large number of civilian casualties. Not only the US bases in Ryukyu Islands but the US bases in the Japanese mainland would be attacked by tactical nuclear weapons.
[US military bases and facilities in Japan]
In addition to the enormous blast, the detonation of tactical nuclear weapons would generate electromagnetic pulse that would blacks-out the electric grid for a year and decimate the critical infrastructure necessary to support a large population. Millions of the Japanese population could perish from starvation, disease and societal collapse.
A war of tactical nuclear weapons would result in hundreds of thousands of or even millions of civilian casualties. [7]
Therefore, China and the US's war over Taiwan needs to be avoided by all means. China can and should make the most of political and diplomatic measures that would be effective to prevent the war.
For example, China can mobilize her business entities including Overseas Chinese to persuade Japanese counterparts to make efforts to prevent a war and support the peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan. If a pro-China peace-oriented government is established in Japan, replacing the current hawkish LDP government, the new Japanese government may declare that China and Taiwan should be peacefully reunified and that Japan would not intervene Taiwan crisis or allow the US to use military bases in Japan for the purpose of a war against China. Here is the detail. [8]
[China's premier Li Keqiang and Japanese Komeito-Party Leader Natsuo Yamaguchi]
As for a diplomatic sphere, it should be noted that over 170 countries have expressed their commitment to one-China principle and condemned Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. China can make the most of the momentum and institutionalize the principle of non-interference in internal affairs into an international treaty and a new UN organization, which would prevent a China-US war over Taiwan. Here is the detail.
Also, if Taiwan military that fears their total disaster and defeat against China stages a coup and removes the current DPP administration from the power, replacing it with a pro-China peace-oriented government, a China-US war over Taiwan would be avoided. Here is the detail.
There are many other measures conceivable. Here is the detail.
Unfortunately, the US is prone to provoke a war with China over Taiwan because it mistakenly believes that a war over Taiwan can be geographically limited to the East Asia. Actually, a war over Taiwan would surely engulf the US mainland too. The US mainland would never remain unscathed.
China and the world nations should work together to ensure the peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan because, once a war between China and the US happens, it would be a disastrous tactical nuclear warfare that would result in hundreds of thousands of or even millions of civilian casualties. That should be avoided by all means.
Thank you.
Reference and notes:
(1) "How Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan set off a new wave of US-China electronic warfare", August 14th 2022, South China Morning Post
(2) There is of course a possibility that China intentionally stopped tracking Pelosi's plane as China did not want to disclose their real capability of counter-jamming. By pretending to be incapable of countering US jamming, China can make a surprise attack against the US next time in a real war. It's a deception.
"All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable." - Sun tzu
There is another possibility that China stopped tracking Pelosi's plane because, if China had kept tracking the plane and tried to prevent it from landing Taiwan, there might have been a dogfight between China's warplanes and US escort warplanes, which could have triggered an escalated large scale conflict.
In retrospect, it was a wise decision for China not to intercept Pelosi's plane because it might have been a US trap. There is a possibility that, if China's fighter jets had come close to Pelosi's plane, Pelosi's plane might have exploded from an unknown cause and crashed. Then, the US would have blamed China for having killed Pelosi and could have imposed the severest economic sanctions against China and mobilized the American people toward a war against China.
Actually, that is the method the US used back in 1898 when a US warship (USS Maine) exploded and sank in Havana harbor from an unknown cause. The US used the incident as an excuse to start a war against Spain.
The US shouted the phrase, "Remember the Maine! To hell with Spain!", alleging that the ship's external explosion had been a torpedo attack by Spain, although Spain's investigation came to a contrary conclusion that the explosion had originated within the ship.
[The sunken USS Maine in Havana harbor]
[a US newspaper with an allegation of Spain's attack]
(3) The US has already started a study on how to wage a war under the condition where GPS signal is not available, including navigation by the stars. See "US military imagines war without GPS", December 19th 2017, Phys.org
(4) "Nuclear Posture Review: US wants smaller nukes to counter Russia", February 2nd 2018, BBC
(5) "China in Past Decade: Leaps and bounds of quantum science innovations", August 28th 2022, CGTN
(6) "China Says Its Heat-Seeking Radar Can Detect Stealth Aircraft 300 Km Away; Scan The Entire Sky In Few Seconds!", August 24th 2022, The Eurasian Times
(7) Some Japanese national security experts warn that, if a war happens between China and the US over Taiwan, economic damage to Japan would be devastating. See 「台湾有事は日本の破滅 海上封鎖されれば台湾もお手上げ」, August 26th 2022, Yahoo Japan News
However, compared to enormous casualties to be caused by a tactical nuclear war, economic damages would be minimal and recoverable. A real issue is probable hundreds of thousands of or even millions of civilian casualties.
(8) "Overseas Chinese gather to promote peaceful reunification", August 28th 2022, CGTN
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.