On the 5th day of Russian attack against Ukraine, the Russian and Ukrainian delegations held talks in the Gomeli region of Belarus.
However, the differences between Russian demands and Ukrainian demands were so wide.
The Russian delegation demanded demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, neutral status of Ukraine, Russian sovereignty over the Crimea and the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk Republics.
The Ukrainian delegation demanded the withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea and Donbass.
Given these stark differences, the two sides may seem to be inconciliable.
However, if the substance and core of these demands are examined and analyzed, the path to a compromise which could satisfy the interests of both sides might be paved.
The reason why Russia demands demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine and neutral status of Ukraine is that Russia doesn’t want Ukraine to join NATO because eastward expansion of NATO is a direct threat to Russian security.
Russia demands Russian sovereignty over the Crimea because Russia wants to maintain its naval base at Sevastopol which is a home port of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
On the other hand, Ukraine demands the withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukrainian territory because Ukraine wants to protect its national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Ukraine doesn’t want to lose even an inch of its territory.
Also, Ukraine wants to join NATO.
Under these circumstances and considering these demands, here is a possible compromise to solve Ukraine crisis:
1. The reason why Ukraine wants to join NATO is security. Thus, Russia gives security guarantee to Ukraine in a document co-signed by parties concerned.
2. Ukraine becomes a neutral state to be a buffer zone between NATO and Russia.
3. Ukraine leases the Crimea to Russia for 99 years.
4. Ukraine admits the sovereignties of the Donetsk and Luhansk Republics and leases the entire states of Donetsk and Luhansk to each of them for 99 years.
By Russian security guarantee, Ukraine’s concern on its national security is removed.
By Ukraine becoming a neutral state, Russia’s concern on its national security is removed.
By the lease of the Crimea, Russia can maintain its naval base at Sevastopol.
By the lease of the states of Donetsk and Luhansk, the Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk gain areas where their national sovereignties exercise and their population reside.
By taking the form of lease, Ukraine’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity are maintained.
If Russia doesn’t accept the compromise, Russia will bear heavy burden of prolonged warfare with increasing criticism and protest both internationally and domestically.
If Ukraine doesn’t accept the compromise, Russian Army will further advance and encircle Kiev. Once encircled, Kiev will be cut off food, water, electricity and fuel. The resistance of Kiev will cease.
As a neutral mediator, China can propose and advocate the above compromise.
After Russia and Ukraine accept the compromise, China and Russia will propose and advocate building a wider buffer zone between NATO and Russia for the sake of lasting peace in Europe.
The traditional theory of so-called balance of power doesn’t work. When military forces of hostile nations are deployed adjacently, a conflict occurs.
Former Warsaw Pact nations should become neutral states to form a wider buffer zone between NATO and Russia, which will create a sufficient space to maintain peace, preventing military conflicts and a nuclear war.
China can promote building the buffer zone in Europe at the United Nations with mobilizing peace-loving Asian, African and Central & South American nations.
Thank you.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
However, the differences between Russian demands and Ukrainian demands were so wide.
The Russian delegation demanded demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, neutral status of Ukraine, Russian sovereignty over the Crimea and the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk Republics.
The Ukrainian delegation demanded the withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea and Donbass.
Given these stark differences, the two sides may seem to be inconciliable.
However, if the substance and core of these demands are examined and analyzed, the path to a compromise which could satisfy the interests of both sides might be paved.
The reason why Russia demands demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine and neutral status of Ukraine is that Russia doesn’t want Ukraine to join NATO because eastward expansion of NATO is a direct threat to Russian security.
Russia demands Russian sovereignty over the Crimea because Russia wants to maintain its naval base at Sevastopol which is a home port of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
On the other hand, Ukraine demands the withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukrainian territory because Ukraine wants to protect its national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Ukraine doesn’t want to lose even an inch of its territory.
Also, Ukraine wants to join NATO.
Under these circumstances and considering these demands, here is a possible compromise to solve Ukraine crisis:
1. The reason why Ukraine wants to join NATO is security. Thus, Russia gives security guarantee to Ukraine in a document co-signed by parties concerned.
2. Ukraine becomes a neutral state to be a buffer zone between NATO and Russia.
3. Ukraine leases the Crimea to Russia for 99 years.
4. Ukraine admits the sovereignties of the Donetsk and Luhansk Republics and leases the entire states of Donetsk and Luhansk to each of them for 99 years.
By Russian security guarantee, Ukraine’s concern on its national security is removed.
By Ukraine becoming a neutral state, Russia’s concern on its national security is removed.
By the lease of the Crimea, Russia can maintain its naval base at Sevastopol.
By the lease of the states of Donetsk and Luhansk, the Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk gain areas where their national sovereignties exercise and their population reside.
By taking the form of lease, Ukraine’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity are maintained.
If Russia doesn’t accept the compromise, Russia will bear heavy burden of prolonged warfare with increasing criticism and protest both internationally and domestically.
If Ukraine doesn’t accept the compromise, Russian Army will further advance and encircle Kiev. Once encircled, Kiev will be cut off food, water, electricity and fuel. The resistance of Kiev will cease.
As a neutral mediator, China can propose and advocate the above compromise.
After Russia and Ukraine accept the compromise, China and Russia will propose and advocate building a wider buffer zone between NATO and Russia for the sake of lasting peace in Europe.
The traditional theory of so-called balance of power doesn’t work. When military forces of hostile nations are deployed adjacently, a conflict occurs.
Former Warsaw Pact nations should become neutral states to form a wider buffer zone between NATO and Russia, which will create a sufficient space to maintain peace, preventing military conflicts and a nuclear war.
China can promote building the buffer zone in Europe at the United Nations with mobilizing peace-loving Asian, African and Central & South American nations.
Thank you.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.