When I was a student at a US graduate school, studying about national security and democracy, I had an opportunity to participate in a war game (a war simulation) on the Middle East held at the graduate school.
Participants included graduate school students, diplomats from various nations such as India and China, and students of US military academy (West Point). Participants were divided into teams representing the Middle East countries and great powers such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Israel, the U.S., Russia, China and so on. (There was no Japan team.)
Each team was allocated to a separate room and had several members who discussed and determined their course of actions. Then, each team sent a message to the umpire consisted of national security professors. The umpire, after judging messages, determined outcome, informed it to each team, and asked to submit another messages. Each team could also exchange messages with other teams as a diplomatic correspondence.
I was the only Japanese participant and was put into an Iran team. Actually, the Iran team turned out to be very aggressive. Our team meeting came to a conclusion that we should invade Iraq.
At an initial phase of the war game, I personally proposed that Iran should launch a ballistic missile into a low earth orbit and make a nuclear detonation there so that electromagnetic pulse (EMP) would destroy most of orbiting military satellites. But, my proposal was rejected by the umpire because it would have too much a decisive effect upon the war game.
After Iran started an invasion against Iraq, the US team didn't intervene. Actually, the US team continued discussion and didn't make any actions.
Meanwhile, the Iran team sent out a message to a China team, asking for their support. However, after one hour, the China team sent back a reply saying "We would maintain our neutral position." The Iran team was impressed with that very "Chinese" reply.
The Iran team discussed their next action, more specifically whether they should move into Saudi Arabia. I was against such a move. But, a member from West Point was very aggressive. Finally, he prevailed and the Iran team decided to march into Saudi Arabia.
However, even at this stage, the US team still didn't intervene. The US team continued their diplomatic talk with a Russian team and other teams.
Finally, the Iran team marched into Riyadh and was admitted as victorious by the umpire, which marked the end of the war game.
After the war game, all of the teams came together at the hall of the graduate school. The members of the Iran team were invited to stand on the front stage.
The umpire of professors appreciated decisive actions taken by the Iran team while denouncing indecisive actions of the US team.
It is many years since the war game was conducted. At that time, to be honest, I was a little bit surprised and skeptical with the outcome of the war game. I personally thought the outcome was unrealistic. Perhaps, many participants felt in the same way.
However, when I look back at the war game and look at the present situation, I can't help feeling the similarity of the situations. Currently, Iranian troops are operating deep inside Iraq, fighting against ISIL. A confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia is intensifying very much in the Middle East. The U.S. is tired of long years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan. American people are opposing against sending ground troops to the Middle East. Given the present situation, what I thought unrealistic at the time of the war game might not be so unrealistic today.
The current Japanese government may think that the US military forces are almighty. But, it would be wise to maintain a good diplomatic relationship with Iran too.
Thank you.
Participants included graduate school students, diplomats from various nations such as India and China, and students of US military academy (West Point). Participants were divided into teams representing the Middle East countries and great powers such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Israel, the U.S., Russia, China and so on. (There was no Japan team.)
Each team was allocated to a separate room and had several members who discussed and determined their course of actions. Then, each team sent a message to the umpire consisted of national security professors. The umpire, after judging messages, determined outcome, informed it to each team, and asked to submit another messages. Each team could also exchange messages with other teams as a diplomatic correspondence.
I was the only Japanese participant and was put into an Iran team. Actually, the Iran team turned out to be very aggressive. Our team meeting came to a conclusion that we should invade Iraq.
At an initial phase of the war game, I personally proposed that Iran should launch a ballistic missile into a low earth orbit and make a nuclear detonation there so that electromagnetic pulse (EMP) would destroy most of orbiting military satellites. But, my proposal was rejected by the umpire because it would have too much a decisive effect upon the war game.
After Iran started an invasion against Iraq, the US team didn't intervene. Actually, the US team continued discussion and didn't make any actions.
Meanwhile, the Iran team sent out a message to a China team, asking for their support. However, after one hour, the China team sent back a reply saying "We would maintain our neutral position." The Iran team was impressed with that very "Chinese" reply.
The Iran team discussed their next action, more specifically whether they should move into Saudi Arabia. I was against such a move. But, a member from West Point was very aggressive. Finally, he prevailed and the Iran team decided to march into Saudi Arabia.
However, even at this stage, the US team still didn't intervene. The US team continued their diplomatic talk with a Russian team and other teams.
Finally, the Iran team marched into Riyadh and was admitted as victorious by the umpire, which marked the end of the war game.
After the war game, all of the teams came together at the hall of the graduate school. The members of the Iran team were invited to stand on the front stage.
The umpire of professors appreciated decisive actions taken by the Iran team while denouncing indecisive actions of the US team.
It is many years since the war game was conducted. At that time, to be honest, I was a little bit surprised and skeptical with the outcome of the war game. I personally thought the outcome was unrealistic. Perhaps, many participants felt in the same way.
However, when I look back at the war game and look at the present situation, I can't help feeling the similarity of the situations. Currently, Iranian troops are operating deep inside Iraq, fighting against ISIL. A confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia is intensifying very much in the Middle East. The U.S. is tired of long years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan. American people are opposing against sending ground troops to the Middle East. Given the present situation, what I thought unrealistic at the time of the war game might not be so unrealistic today.
The current Japanese government may think that the US military forces are almighty. But, it would be wise to maintain a good diplomatic relationship with Iran too.
Thank you.