You don't feel good about being turned down for a loan by a bank.
Feel like you are worth less. Never mind, there would be other banks.
Is the US GDP forecast factoring in too much economic deterioration?
Not pricing in that much deterioration?
Consensus EPS for 2023 and 24 is falling sharply
Atlanta Fed GDPNow shows 4QGDP forecast unchanged around the 3%-4% range.
A significant US GDP slowdown has been recorded at over -2.5%.
A drop to -2%yoy is unlikely this time around, I think.
IMF GDP forecast for 2023 is 1% growth for the U.S. and 2.7% for the world.
At what point will the market notice?
The tipping point is the key.
I did the whitening. I put on Mouth Piece for 10 days and it's all white.
As you get older you get dirtier, so I try to keep it clean!
Hedge selling
Typically, you should look at the shape of the spread and timing.
Selling in a hurry is not a good idea.
Selling and leaving it is also a bad idea.
Hedge selling is only to prepare for a short-term shock.
Don't make it a long shot.
Performance of Mothers Index Gray and Small Cap Fund Orange
The figure shows that if you hedged in mid-December, you could have properly prevented a 4% decline.
That's a 4% gain on the hedge sale and a 4% loss on the long.
The 10% hedging profit happened before Christmas, so you were able to gain here.
The worst case would be if you saw the drop and sold for the hedges at the beginning of the year.
I was one of them.
the Fund seems to lag on the upswing after 1/4.
That's how you get hit by the spread.
At the same time, it went up, so there is a loss from hedge selling.
SBI's system doesn't offset the loss from hedge selling and profit from long cash.
Selling futures are calculated on a naked basis.
Profit on longs from 1/4 to 1/20 is 3.2%, and loss on shorts is 5.8%.
The net loss is 2.6%.
Not a big deal since it is 260,000 yen for 10 million yen.
But in the system, the loss is calculated as 580,000 yen.
This would result in an additional margin.
I feel so bad even though I know I should just ignore it and keep putting in the additional margin.
I thrashed the hedging to prevent a further margin call.
it's a little net long now.
I did well with the dollar hedging but got hit on stocks
Even though I've been in the stock market for over 30 years, I learned a lot in short selling.
My father-in-law is 88 years old and doing well.
He says he could live to be 100.
My wife says "do you think you can live that long?!" OMG.
I feel foreign investors have been taking positions based on the same idea.
Long the banking sector, short the TOPIX.
you have had time to make positions for five days since 1/5.
JGB yields have broken the BOJ's guideline, making a spike in long-term interest rates more realistic. I booked profits, but see this as a long story.
Performance of Bank ETFs and TOPIX
It looks like I may be able to remove hedged futures positions in case of a further downturn. I will lighten the delta hedge.
Return spread between the fund and the Mothers Index, Fund/Index
Dollar movement left: 1 day, right: 1 month
I realized profits from USD hedging. I thought USD was settling down, but with JGB yields rising and US long-term rates falling, USD collapsed.
I could have left the hedge without removing it, but I'm glad I did take off.
I could short USD again.
I want to avoid the situation where I had the intention to hedge but couldn't.
Take a minimum position first and then do more with a careful amount.
