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お久しぶりです。
2/26から約1月ぶりとなります。こんなに空けたのは5年ぶりでしょうか。
工事で家を出されたり、プロジェクトの進捗に翻弄されたり。
気付くと家の前の桜が満開となっています。
日経新聞を読まない日も多かったので足元を整理しておきます。
マーケットのテーマは
インフレ鎮静化➡しぶといインフレ➡ターミナルレート上昇➡債券価格下落による銀行の含み損拡大➡破綻銀行➡CS救済➡AT債デフォルト➡金融危機懸念➡金利低下
となっていたようです。銀行が破綻の危機に直面するとFDICがまた救済してるようです。いつか来た道。預金供給で今回は潰さないようです。
ようやくTOPIXを積み始めた矢先にSVBの危機が起きました。
買って翌週に減らすという不器用さに我ながら呆れています。
中小型株を減らし、エネルギーを減らし、ドルを外し、原油を外しました。
次の一手は？
TOPIXオレンジ、S&P500赤、ナスダック100青：
今年は１，２月とプラスを確保したが3月にマイナスとなりました。
ファンダメンタルズ、株式が弱い中でナスダックが順調なのは気になります。
転換点に理由は無く後付けです。
ナスダックは金利上昇は織り込み、レイオフも織り込んできっかけ待ちです。
或いはSVBの問題はナスダックを直撃すると報道されていますが、実際は違うのかなと考えています。
次回からYouTubeに移行します。
オジサンもYouTube配信の練習。
It has been a while since I took a plane on a business.
In Tokyo, the plum blossoms are in bloom and spring has arrived, but in Izumo, a blizzard and snow were piling up.
This week's market
Inflation was not easily quelled and the terminal rate rose 50 basis points.
The idea is that inflation is not quickly quelled or it has peaked.
My view is that it is not easily quelled but has peaked out.
I do not believe it will exceed the previous peak.
Expected inflation is in the range:
Long-term U.S. interest rates are poised to exceed previous levels:
Expectations for an early rate cut have disappeared:
Stocks are up 20% from the bottom.
No wonder some participants want to take profits.
On the other hand, I don't think there are hedge funds that will sell off further.
NASDAQ:
The market, which had stopped reacting to inflation, has changed.
It is now reacting again.
Reaction ➡No reaction ➡Reaction
This may be a repetition.
U.S. Treasuries, which offer a 5% return, are valuable.
I want to keep money in dollars.
U.S. interest rates from 3 months to 30 years:
My friend's brother was diagnosed with stage 4 cancer in October and given two months to live.
After treatment, he returned to work. I now know that miracles do happen.
U.S. Long-Term Interest Rates and the Dollar/Yen
Last week's market themes
Inflation calming down ➡ Revival of inflation fears
The Fed doesn't know either whether inflation will be calmed or rekindled.
No point in making predictions. You have to be flexible either way.
U.S. wage trends:
U.S. wage growth appears to have stopped
Fed rate hike forecast, upper before FOMC, lower after FOMC, from Mr. Goto:
Terminal rate upped by 25 bp in one week.
5.25% is now the consensus and a rate cut is out of sight.
From left to right: NASDAQ, Dow, Stoxx50
Stocks are not reacting to inflation and I have turned bullish.
They're still up at the close on Friday. Europe is steady.
This is the most crucial phase of the year for me.
Crude left, copper right:
The price of copper is firm on the back of a strong economy.
On the other hand, the price of crude oil has been lacklustre.
I have almost cut WTI positions, but still wondering why crude oil is so weak.
I stepped on the gas pedal. My position is:
"Inflation fears are rekindled, interest rates rise, and the dollar rises. But the stock market won't break."
This is the first mountain of the year. I am nervous about what to do if I am wrong.
Nikkei TV-Tokyo University, a popular channel with 1 million subscribers, has been shut down.
Says pressure from the parent company, Nikkei Newpaper.
TV Tokyo's shareholder composition:
The Director Takahashi has left TV Tokyo, and Mr. Goto has left Nikkei Shimbun last year.
Interesting battle between old and new media power.
Week in Review
Sticky inflation still rattles the market.
Has it calmed down or not yet?
Market participants are moving left and right.
Investor positions are bullish for the first time in a long time.
The two main reasons behind this are the reduction of the prospect of a recession and the end of FRB's monetary tightening. As usual, the market moves on expectations before confirming the facts.
10-Year Expected Inflation:
WTI Futures:
Oil prices managed to stop falling.
I have reduced exposure, but may not be wrong.
Im looking for entry again.
TOPIX:
Following the UK and Germany, Japan seems to be breaking out of its range.
There is no longer a need to hedge. You only need to be long banks.
FTSE100:
DAX:
Even a child can look like this when kidnapped by IS.
It's hard to bring a brainwashed child back to normal.
China Stocks
It was a week that depended on inflation's calming and sticky nature.
China flew a balloon over the US mainland and got shot down.
I still think we can't take exposure in China.
Japanese bank stocks
It might be too early to tell.
Interest rates will continue to rise in Japan and bank profits will rise.
The question is when.
Crude oil
Is the upward revision of GDP finished?
Has the market already factored in economic optimism?
If the economy is not in recession, the current level of oil is the equilibrium point?
Oil companies are making unprecedented profits.
They don't want to see oil prices rise any further and public opinion rise.
But OPEC plus don't care.
I'm watching for the right time to re-enter.
深夜に酔ってタクシーで帰宅した人が、近道しようと顔からダイブしました。
あごを5針縫う大けがです。
景気回復と原油
織り込み済みでしょうか。
マーケットの見立ての変化に反して下落していきます。
一足遅かったのでしょうか、一時的な調整なのか。
わからないのでリスクを減らしています。
原油価格：
銅価格：
景気はどこへ向かうのか。
筆者の通う歯医者は麻酔注射が無痛、義歯作成は３Dプリンターで5分です。
そういえば歯のお手入れはジェット噴射になりました。
1月はヘッジで大失敗しました。月末はプラスで終える事が出来た。
ヘッジの失敗をヘッジのコントロールで埋めた格好です。
ポジション縮小
世界は楽観的な景気展望に転じてきました。
10－12月のユーロ圏のGDPはマイナスの予想に対してプラスが出ました。
フランスとスペインが好調だそうでレジャーの恩恵でしょうか。
世の中は思ったほど悪くないけど見本の物価も狂っています。
IMFの予想修正：
一方で原油の戻りは鈍くフライング気味だった懸念がある。
一度ポジションを半分まで削減します。
WTIの推移：
ダウはオレンジ、S&Pはブルー、ナスダックは：
1月半ば以降、S&Pの戻りがダウよりも堅調です。
これまでダウに避難していましたが、ナスダックとS&Pを久しぶりに増やしています。株式比率は26％。どこで50％以上まで引き上げるか考えています。
FITは電力の固定価格買取り制度で安全とされています。
でも固定価格より変動の方が長い目で見るとよい気がします。
欧州GDP
前期比マイナスに落ち込むかプラスで踏ん張るか注目します。
天然ガス価格の下落が景気浮揚の要因として語られているのに違和感です。
中国の回復がドイツと欧州へ与える影響が大きいのでないか。
中国市場のエクスポージャーの代わりに欧州を持つという迂回路もありです。
前回左、予想右
ハンセン指数は月間で15％アップ。筆者はアリババのトラウマがあって、中国市場は信じていません。
オレンジがハンセン指数、ブルーがS&P
Many men praise Takuya Kimura, saying that his way of life is terrific.
Is this staged?
Nasdaq.
When you have a position, you have to have an assumption.
You need to understand why you have those exposures.
Inflation calmed down ➡ Fed stopped raising interest rates ➡ Recession averted ➡ Pessimism recedes
Over the past week, there has been an increase in the belief that recession will be avoided in Europe and that the U.S. economy will not deteriorate as much as expected.
I covered up hedged shorts in Mothers and increased longs in Europe and NASDAQ.
Not sure which asset is best, so I am long all of them: Japanese, U.S. and European stocks, oil, and gold
Gold is orange, S&P is blue, NASDAQ is red:
Europe is orange, Japan is red, and the US is blue:
Europe.
I believe Europe is outperforming the U.S. because of monetary tightening.
If the Fed stops tightening, Europe's relative advantage will disappear.
Gold
Why does it have momentum?
I think it is a hedge against the dollar. Not hedging against stocks.
Many investors would shift their money into gold to lock in profits from the dollar's spike.
If the dollar stops falling, gold would also stop rising.
Gold in blue, USD in orange:
Crude oil
Betting that a recession can be avoided.
Wall Street has begun to revise its economic outlook positively, as expected.
The trend of declining shale oil strength is not bad as well.
WTI: