I’m not a great fun of FB and Twitter. I even shut it down all accounts. Nevertheless, I realized that you can’t live without Twitter, LINE and FB in 2020.
Cross Assets Trend
It’s necessary to checkup CTA’s positions and their costs in future markets. BTP (Italian Government Bond fut) long has peaked out in Sep and being reduced. Their cost seems to be around 1.17% in Italian 10y Government bond equivalent. Bear in mind that AUD, CAD and BTP are popular long amongst Japanese bond investors this year.
The cost of TY(UST) long is still 0.72%ish with next support being 1.02%. Net long has been dwindling since Aug. Long in bond futures as a whole is trending down for the past few weeks.
S&P and Nasdaq100 futures also been slashed since Sep. It seems to me that S&P net long started lower first, and NDX followed suit. Their support levels had been broken. The next support of NDX would be 10820.
It takes three months to recover sentiment after a crash and bottom out. Probability of bottom out of US stocks tend to be high after 80 weeks under Trump administration, which is in turn 96 weeks since 2009. Given correction started Sep 2, it would be December for the market to turn positive again. Until then, you can take time to choose markets and stocks that you punt.
【Price changes of Tesla, Nikola and Nasdaq100 for 1month】
What do you do with TSEREIT?
Non-domestic investors are coming since JREIT has been stuck at 1700. Bad news of Hotel and Office REIT was priced in. Fundamental of Logistics and Residential are not bad. NAV elevated and devastated before and after crash in Mar. Market becomes more reasonable when it comes to valuation and yield generated. The 4.2% yield is more stable and more upside than high dividend stocks below, I think.
【TSEREIT index has been stuck since June 19】
NAV range scattered from 0.49 to 1.56 which, I think, would be narrower. 3249 has the highest NAV of 1.56 with exposure in Logistics 56％, Infrustructures27％,Factory and R&D centers17%. Ichigo’s NAV is 0.49.
High Dividend Stocks in Japan
My father in law is trying to buy Orix for dividend. Nikkei also reported high dividend list during holidays.I’ve made quick analysis from different angles. I made a lot of mistakes for high dividend stocks. FPG got hammered by Plane lease operations, especially LCC. There is no sign of JT revamping food and pharma business.
ROIC, Market Cap
Here is some names from NIKKEI. I want to figure out those names are really generating cash. Also current CEO is creating value since their inauguration. Sorry for Japanese names, but you can google with copy and paste.
※Price change under current CEO(year start of announcement)
※Annualized by half year dividend
※ROIC＝（OP×（1－tax rate of 30%））÷（Equity＋Debts）
Interestingly, Mitsubishi Trading is the only one which increased shareholder value since his takeover. As per ROIC, all company are lower with high leverage and low growth. Well, now you know why the sage of Omaha picked up Mitsubishi.