• 17 Feb
    • 18.02.16 投資脳を鍛える

      動物をやめる。冷静になる呼吸を整えるシミュレーションをするデモトレードをする最低単位で、トレードの練習をする。サイズを大きくする。崩れたらまたサイズを小さくする。これの繰り返し。【相場観】金:買い白金:買いゴム:売りガソリン:売り原油:売りコーン:買い。限月が変わったので一考を要します。

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  • 15 Feb
    • 18.02.15 メンタルを鍛える、

      欲望と恐怖それに踊らされるから、正常な判断ができない。お金持ちはどうしているか??? 損失の時いくら損になりますか? 儲かるときはどれくらい儲かりますか?損失1000円、儲けは5千円、1000円の損失なら一食倹約すればいい。となればエントリー。損失10万円、一日の稼ぎか、たいして利益は5万円、確率は80%以上、大した損失ではないからエントリー。いくらお金持ちでも、10億円の損失、得られる利益は11億円なら、よぉーく考えて結論を出すでしょう。身の丈に合ったリスクまで、発注数量を減らすことです。【相場観】金:買い転換か?白金:買い転換か?ゴム:売りガソリン:売り原油:売りコーン:売り

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    • 18.02.14 バレンタインデー

      チョコなし、寂しい・・・・メンタルを鍛える・・・・・・というより、投資脳に切り替える。金持ちの思考法に切り替える。それが投資で成功する一つの方法勝つルールを知っても、それを忠実に実行できるようにしないと、儲からない。【相場観】金:売り。突っ込み買いか白金:売り。突っ込み買いゴム:売り。とは言うものの、RSIから判断すると利食い、途転買いか。ガソリン:売り原油:売りコーン:売り。全て、逆張りの買い場か?

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  • 13 Feb
    • 18.02.13 意味が良くわからない言葉、メンタルが弱い

      将棋とか、スポーツならメンタルが弱いという意味が分かるが、トレードにおけるメンタルが弱いというのはどういう意味でしょうか。ただ単に、ルールが定まっていないだけというように聞こえてしまいます。動物脳で戦うか、投資脳で戦うか、その切り替えがうまくできていないだけかもしれません。【相場観】金:売り白金:売りゴム:売りガソリン:売り原油:売りコーン:売り

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    • 18.02.12 You’re Only as Good as Your Last Trade

      Today’s lesson is going to help you eliminate one of the biggest psychological handicaps that is standing in the way of your trading success. First, we will identify the issue and then help you cure it and prevent it from returning. Essentially, we are going to ‘vaccinate’ you against one of the worst trading ‘diseases’ that ‘kills’ many traders each year…This trading ‘disease’ is something that often develops following your last trade. As that last trade’s results permeate your brain, depending on whether you are trading properly and (or) are mentally prepared to deal with your last trade’s results, you may be at serious risk to getting stricken with this trading ‘disease’. Read on to learn what it is and how to vaccinate yourself from it…Why your last trade matters so much, or does it?Your last trade will tell me a lot about you as a trader and as a person. For example, does your last trade look consistent with your other recent trades? If it was a loser and I see it was 5 times as big as your previous loss, you’re doing something seriously wrong; all your losers should be very close to the same amount and some maybe at breakeven. Winning trades will naturally vary a little more (some 1r, 2r, 3r or more), but if I see many tiny winners less than 1R (1 times risk) and some super big ones, you are likely not on the right track either.Your last trade can negatively influence your mindset and thus your next trade. Ideally, your last trade will have no effect on your next trade, but far too often for most traders it has a huge effect.Your last trade only matters if you are trading wrong and thus allowing that last trade to take on too much importance. The fact is, your last trade should be totally irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, and so it should have ZERO impact on your mindset and your decision to take your next trade or not. If you just lost, it has no bearing on the fact that your next trade might be a winner. If you just won, it has no bearing on the fact that your next trade might be a loser.If you stuck to your plan, whether it was a win or loss, you are on the right track.Re-read that last sentence again.Recency bias explained in the context of tradingAs I discuss in my article on the topic of recency bias in trading, a trader has recency bias when they focus too heavily on their most recent trading decisions / trades and lose perspective on the bigger picture. In other words, when a trader has recency bias, they can’t see the forest for the trees, so to speak. “It is human tendency to estimate probabilities not on the basis of long-term experience but rather on a handful of the latest outcomes.” – Your Money and Your Brian, Jason ZweigA trader can have both winning streak recency bias and losing streak recency bias. Winning-streak recency bias:Winning streak recency bias says that traders who are on a winning streak (or who just hit a huge winning trade) are too heavily influenced by that winning streak. The implications of this are, traders may increase risk size on their next trade above what they are comfortable with losing and (or) they may enter increasing number of trades that violate their trading plan / trading edge. The primary psychological error at play here is over-confidence. As a trader wins, it’s human nature to perceive less risk in the market and start inflating their sense of trading ability and how much they were responsible for that last winner, to the point where it becomes detrimental. This usually ends in a massive loss or series of losses that quickly voids all the gains made during the winning streak. Losing-streak recency bias:Losing-streak recency bias says that traders who are on a losing streak (or who just incurred a large loss) are also too heavily influenced by that losing streak. The implications of this are, traders may decrease risk size below their normal 1R risk amount and (or) they may enter decreasing number of trades due to fear of losing more. The primary psychological error at play here is fear. As a trader loses, it’s human nature to start perceiving more risk in the market than is really there and to start over-worrying about losses and this works to deflate one’s sense of trading ability and confidence. This usually ends up in missed opportunities and can result in a perpetual cycle of fear and losing until the trader ultimately gives up trading altogether, feeling jaded and even ‘scammed’ by the market. How to cure recency bias in trading:I wish there was a magic pill that I could send you in the mail that would cure your susceptibility to recency bias in trading, but sadly, there isn’t. So, you’re going to have to listen closely and do what I say if you want to avoid this mental trading plague.Avoiding recency bias in trading begins with knowledge, with education. You must first understand that it’s simply human nature to become overly-affected by your last trade’s results. Once you understand this, you will start to become more self-aware and hopefully you’ll catch yourself in the middle of becoming too influenced by your last trade. This is your cue to take a break, step away from the market for a day, go read a book, play golf, do whatever, and come back tomorrow or the next week, after all, the market will be there tomorrow. Maybe not what you want to do or hear, but it works, trust me.Next, you need to understand that one trade simply doesn’t matter. So, don’t make it matter! If you are managing risk properly on every trade and sticking to your trading plan, you should not be surprised or overly-emotional about the results of your last trade, win or lose. And, as we will get into next, you must remember that any one trade, looked at individually, is essentially a random event. Your trading edge that gives you a better than 50% chance of winning, is ONLY realized over a large enough series of trades. Thus, looking at the results of ONE trade within a chain of say 20 to 40 trades, is completely pointless.The only thing you should be worried about regarding your last trade, is IF it was consistent with your trading plan or not. The results of your last trade mean nothing and should mean nothing, otherwise you’re doing something wrong. Drill that into your head if you want to permanently overcome recency bias.You must train your brain to ‘behave’ properly after your last tradeAs I touched on above, we are all basically pre-wired in such a way that allows our brains to naturally give too much significance and become overly-influenced by the results of our last trade. For most traders, their last trade impacts their next trading decision far too much, and the resulting emotional highs and lows in confidence can lead to trading account destruction very fast.Note: I am not saying you should totally discount when you feel confident in your trading abilities or even when you feel fearful. Indeed, these feelings can be healthy and normal in the right amounts and they are part of a savvy trader’s gut feel for the market. But, they become dangerous when they are too frequent or intense and this is what we must prevent from happening.Here are some tips on how you can train your brain to function properly after your last trade so that you do not become negatively affected by that trade’s outcome: Trick your brain into not feeling any pain. By utilizing the power of positive thinking and using positive trading affirmations as well as meditation, you can basically distract your brain from obsessing over negative thoughts (like a losing trade, for example) and even physical pain as discussed in the article trick your brain into not feeling any pain. Having a strategy to block out negative thoughts as well as to deal with them when they do arise will also go a long way in helping you eliminate the recency bias we discussed previously. Make SURE you are sticking to your predefined risk on every trade. If you don’t, you will quickly become overly-emotional whether that trade wins or loses. If it wins you will be influenced by the winning recency bias and if it losses you will be influenced by the losing recency bias as discussed above. Make SURE you are not over-trading by sticking to your trading plan criteria consistently no matter what. If you over-trade you’re going to become addicted to the feeling of trading, as I discuss in my recent article on anticipatory trading plans. Over-trading stems from giving too much weight to your last trade. Remember that any given trade’s results are simply one instance of your edge in a large series, see next section for more on this!Edge vs. EmotionYour trading edge is the basically the entry trigger that, played out over a series of trades, provides you with a better than random chance of making money. The edge needs to playout undisturbed however, regardless of your emotions. However, your emotions can impact your ability to trade the edge, so this is the paradox of trading edges vs. emotions.Thus, your last trade needs to be irrelevant to you, so that you can truly let your trading edge play out over the series of trades it needs to MAKE YOU MONEY.As the late great Mark Douglas teaches, there is a random distribution of wins and losses for any given trading edge, and this is THEE reason why your last trade is and SHOULD BE irrelevant. You need to continuously remind yourself of the random distribution between wins and losses so that you remember why your last trade shouldn’t matter, and so that you don’t let it negatively influence your next trade.What you feel is 100% irrelevant as it relates to what the market will do next. Yes, you can use your gut feel as a tool, but there is a very fine-line between savvy gut trading feel and over-use of it.If you are trading with discipline and managing your risk properly on every trade as well as not taking stupid trades, this will go a long way to eliminating much of the negative feelings traders experience after a win or loss. After all, if you know you stuck to your plan, even if the trade was a loss, you have nothing to be ashamed of or mad it, you just chalk it up to a losing occurrence of your edge (one in large series of trades) and move on; let time go by and stick to your plan. Once you start trading as if every trade is independent of the next (because it is), you will naturally start to interact with the market in a way that leads to trading success.Trade like a hedge fund…Top-performing hedge fund managers know that to make money for their clients they must be calm, collected and calculating. They simply cannot afford to constantly be jumping in and out of the market, chasing every little thing they think might be an opportunity. They know if they did this, they would quickly have many very angry investors after them. Similarly, you cannot afford to constantly jump in and out of the market, transaction costs eating away at you aside, trading like a day trader is simply not conducive to the proper trading mindset.If you want to trade like you are running a top-performing hedge-fund, you better get ready to do a lot more study and observation and a lot less actual trading. If you had $1 million under your management, would you feel any need to “Make money fast”? No! Because you know just ONE good trade a month or even every three months can make you a huge gain, and you know that the best way to maximize your long-term gains is simply to avoid stupid trades (over-trading).Hedge fund managers know that less trades = better results, this is a proven statistic in fact. When you trade less it’s a more peaceful existence and provides you with a far better ability to obtain the neutral state of mind towards the market that you need to succeed (by that I mean, not letting your last trade matter, essentially). If you’re always trading, you’re feeling the highs and lows of those trades a lot more, or at east you’re a lot more likely to. The more often you put yourself in the way of the temptation to be overly-affected by your last trade’s results, the more likely you are to be affected by it. Similar to eating healthy in that the easiest way to do it is to simply not stock your house with unhealthy food, the easiest way to avoid allowing your previous trade to affect you negatively is to make sure you aren’t over-trading or over-leveraging for that matter.ConclusionYour last trade is a microcosm of your overall trading performance and mental trading state. If a trader is successful over the long-term, I could look at their last trade at any time of the year and it would make sense with his trading plan and it would reflect a disciplined, consistent approach, win or loss. This is because the professional traders know that the very things that lead to successful trading like, consistency, discipline and patience are the same things that help to ‘vaccinate’ them against the ‘plague’ of their last trade’s results infecting their minds to influence their next trading decision.If I look at a snapshot of your last two or three trades, could I say the same? Could I say that it reflects someone who is not being influenced by their last trade? Or would it be glaringly obvious to me that you ARE letting that last trade dictate your next move in the market? To get to the point of being a calm, collected professional trader who is totally unaffected by the results of his or her last trade, you must start learning the proper techniques and strategies discussed both in this article and expanded upon in my professional trading course.

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  • 11 Feb
    • 18.02.11 ひな壇の芸人さんが・・・

      仮想通貨を買ったという話題1929年の暴落前に、靴磨きの少年がこの株儲かるよと言っていたのを聞いて、売りにげたケネディ。今回もそれがあったようです。半値、8掛け、2割引き。高値から68%落ちないと、面白くない。次の話題:「大富豪の仕事術」の169ページの内容を下記にそのまま引用します。~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~彼ら(麻薬中毒者)の中毒のほうが私の野望よりもはるかに強かったのだ。だからこそ、必要なお金を稼ぐためならどんなことでも犠牲にできるのだ。米国で最も成功した人たちの生活を調べてみれば、彼らも同じだということがわかるだろう。1. 長時間、賢明に働く2. 1つの目標に集中し続ける3. 成功するためには犠牲を厭わないアンドリュー・カーネギーの伝記を読むといい。そうすれば、彼の人生でこの3つの特性が何度となく現れるのに気づくはずだ。ウォーレン・バフェットやビル・ゲイツのドキュメンタリーを見るといい。きっと同じことがわかるだろう。これはきっと、しっかりと考えなければならないことに違いない。長時間、一生懸命働くことは、成功には欠かせない。決意と集中も重要だ。本当に大きなゴールを実現するためには……まったく新しい分野に挑戦するには……もっとやらなければいけない。無教養の若者が麻薬中毒でなくなったら、ハンバーガーショップでハンバーガーを焼きながら、働きたいだけ働くだろう……でも、決して一日に600ドル(約6万円)稼ぐことはない。それは先が見えなくても、苦痛でも、知らないことでも、面倒でも、危険が及ぶとしても、なんとしてもやり抜くという強い意志があって初めて達成できることだからだ。

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  • 09 Feb
    • 18.02.09-2 今回、次回のオリンピックは時差との闘い

      選手は、日本人も含めて時差との闘いアメリカのゴールデンタイムに合わせてアメリカで人気の高いゲームが放送されることになっているから。 何故アメリカを優遇するの?放映権の40%をアメリカの方法局が支払ったから。お金持ちには逆らえないようです。東京オリンピックも同じことのようです。

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    • 18.02.09 I have no rules

      勝つために必要なこと・チャートから市場参加者の心理が読める。・資金管理の概念を把握している。・損切りのやり方タイミングも根拠が明確。・銘柄選定ができている。・シナリオが組める。・全体相場の環境認識ができる。・確率の知識だけでなく、本質も理解できている。・日誌を付け反省する習慣を持っている。・最低限、優位性の確認出来ているルールがある。【相場観】金:売り白金:売りゴム:売りガソリン:売り原油:売りコーン:売り全銘柄売り・・・・異常な市場心理

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  • 08 Feb
    • 18.02.08 第二幕は乱高下、方向感乏し

      【相場観】金:売り。利食いの買戻し、新規買いの方針。チャートは売りのままです。白金:売りゴム:売り。安値更新をしなくなったということは底練か?突っ込み買いの注文が面白い。ガソリン・原油:売り。そろそろ利食いどころか?コーン:買い。

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    • 18.02.07 暴落、第一幕おわり???

      第二幕はどうなる???。序章より大きな下げを期待したい。【相場観】金:売り白金:売りゴム:売りガソリン:売り原油:売りコーン:売り

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  • 06 Feb
    • 18.02.06 単なる調整安か、暴落か???

      調整の範疇とみていますが、・・・・・買いサイン待ちです。【相場観】金:売り白金:売りゴム:売りガソリン:売り原油:売りコーン:売り。  買い場の提供か?

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    • 18.02.05 日本は不景気の株高

      その証拠に、年金をどんどん下げている。格差が拡大している。アメリカで、大きく下げている。利上げが予想されての、株売りらしい。利上げをするのは、景気の過熱感、株が売られるのは、危ないものより安全な銀行預金に動くからと、教科書に書いてあった。そのように動くのは最初だけで、また株高に転じる。何故???・・・・景気が良くなるから利上げ、だったら株も上がる。早晩株価上昇に転じる、そのタイミングを計れば儲けやすいだろう。【相場観】金:買い白金:買いゴム:買いガソリン;買い原油:売りガソリンと原油の鞘取りも 一考か?コーン:買い

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  • 03 Feb
    • 18.02.03 節分

      簡単に相場観金:買い白金:買いゴム:売り。買い転換かもガソリン:買い原油:買いコーン:買いコーン・大豆は南アメリカの天候次第のようです。

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  • 02 Feb
    • 18.02.02-2 春が来る前に…立春前

      研究というものは地味で、同じようなことの繰り返しで結果が出ない、つらい日々が続く毎日のようです。それを、壊して、人間自体をダメにする思想が海の外から持ってきた悪魔の呪文成果主義。これで、日本の巨大企業が、ルール破り、掟破りの法令違反をしていました、今もしているでしょう。一事が万事、他の業界・分野も似たようなものと考えています。多分、一昨年なくなられた、人工知能の父と言われたマーヴィン・ミンスキー曰く、私が学生だった頃30年もかからないような仕事に手を出すな、と言われた、と。相場の世界で30年は長いが、仮説を立てて検証して儲かることを確認してトレードするというのは、地味で時間がかかる仕事でしょう。儲かるまでの過程は、科学者の考察、仮説、検証、文献発表なら査読、審査という難関もあります。これを通らないと、本(業界のジャーナル、雑誌)に載せてもらえません。生方さんも大変だったようです。京大の、期間雇用の人も大変だったようです。(精神的に)

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    • 18.02.02 10の質問

      A commercial airline pilot goes through an extensive pre-flight checklist to avoid any problems once that jumbo-jet gets airborne. Similarly, you must go through a trading checklist before you get ‘airborne’ and enter a live trade. But, how often do you sit down in front of your computer, open your trading platform and begin searching for trades without going through any type of checklist to make sure you’re doing things right? For most traders, this is how they operate all the time and it’s a big reason they don’t make money.Trading plans or checklists may seem boring to you, but if they do it’s because you aren’t thinking about them right, in fact, when you start viewing them as ‘cheat-sheets’ that can actually make you a more profitable trader, you will start looking at them from a different perspective.A trading plan / checklist will act as a filter which you put your predetermined trading criteria in and that will act as not only a trade setup filter, but also as a trading mistake filter. We all need a trading plan to stay on track and to stay grounded – I still use a mental checklist everyday before looking at the charts. However, when beginning, you need to print this out or write it down and physically go through it each time you scan for trades, until you have made it a HABIT!What follows is perhaps a scaled-down or thinner version of what your finalized pre-trade checklist will look like and I encourage you to expand yours so it goes into more detail and leaves no stone un-turned, so to speak. So, here is a solid foundation / example checklist for you to begin building yours from…Technical Analysis Checklist:1. Did I draw in key levels and trends?Did you zoom out to the weekly chart time frame and begin the process of identifying the key long-term horizontal support and resistance levels?Did you identify the current long-term / overall trend or market condition? Is it up-trending, down-trending or moving sideways in a large range on the weekly chart? Figure this out next.Did you then drill-down to the daily chart time frame and draw in any other obvious types of support and resistance? This would include (but not limited to) horizontal levels as well as moving averages (if trending), 50% retrace levels and event areas.What is the near-term daily chart trend? Is there even a trend or is it consolidating in a range? Is the market just choppy? Identify if the current market movement is trending or if it’s a sideways market. The answer to this will determine how you approach this market.2. Is there a signal?Next, is there something worth trading here? Is there an OBVIOUS price action signal that fits in with the current market picture? Meaning, does the signal ‘make sense’ with what the market is doing? For example: if there’s a strong uptrend in place, you are only considering buy signals, no sells. Or, if the market is range-bound you may be considering buy signals from support and sell signals from resistance. We are essentially asking ourselves IF there’s a suitable entry here, be that a price action signal or simply a ‘blind entry’; remember, we need two out of three: Trend, Level, Signal, ideally all three, but sometimes you’ll only get two of them lining up.Most importantly, if an obvious trade setup doesn’t jump out at you on the daily, 4 hour or 1-hour chart time frame within a few minutes of looking (assuming you have honed this skill), then it’s time to move on, there’s nothing worth trading that day.Remember, being flat (or neutral / not in the market) IS a VERY profitable position relative to taking a low-probability trade and LOSING MONEY. To learn more, checkout this lesson on how to filter good trade signals from bad.3. Is there confluence of factors / evidence? I touched on this briefly above, but it’s so important it needs re-hashing…If you have identified a trade signal, even if it’s an obvious one, you need to ask yourself if it is also a confluent trade setup? Meaning, does it have OTHER supporting factors behind it other than just the price bar itself? Does the trade setup make sense in the context of the story the price action is telling you? If it doesn’t, you may want to walk away from that signal. Remember, this filter / checklist is in place to make sure only the best trades make it through, think of it as a way to filter out all the garbage, leaving only the ‘pure’ trades. You are going to have losing trades no matter what, but our goal as traders is to improve our performance as much as possible and limit losses and draw-downs, well a checklist like the one you’re reading about is how that’s done.Example of a confluent inside bar trading pattern. This signal was in-line with the downtrend and from resistance (8/21 day moving averages are red and blue lines):Example of a confluent fakey trading pattern. This signal was in-line with the downtrend and formed off a key resistance level…Summary of technical analysis checklist: Identify / determine overall market conditions and levels so that you can decide which direction you are looking to trade and from where on the chart you are looking to trade. Look for high-probability entry scenarios that make sense with the previously determined market conditions and levels. You may want to make daily trading affirmations something you go through each day before you even start your checklist process or before even opening your charts. As you gain experience and master price action trading strategies, you can and should bolt-on additional entry signals and entry scenarios, make them a part of your checklist, don’t just mentally do this, not until you’re seriously skilled anyways. Remember, we are trying to re-wire your brain to develop positive trading HABITS. IT TAKES TIME, PERSISTANCE AND DEDICATION TO TURN ACTIONS INTO HABITS.Mental / Psychology questions:4. Am I in the right state of mind to enter this trade?Are you in a calm, collected and overall objective state of mind before you enter this trade? Did you enter this trade for the right reasons or is it a revenge or greed-fueled trade? You will have to be honest with yourself here obviously, and you will have to act on that honesty, otherwise it’s a waste of time. Remember, you are delving into the trading world where there is no boss, no one is looking over your shoulder to keep you accountable. You must do the right thing when no one else is looking – trading is perhaps the ultimate test of one’s character!Some other things to consider are: Did you just come off a big winning trade that may be inflating your confidence in your trading abilities to an unsafe level? Traders often lose money because they get overly confident and this causes them to take bigger / more risks in the market. Remember, you’re only as good as your last trade, so stay focused and remain in the proper trading mindset or your last trade might negatively impact your next one.5. Am I mentally and financially prepared to accept this risk?Ask yourself before entering a trade, are you mentally prepared for the results of the trade, win or lose? This is where trading education great Mark Douglas shines, he gets in-depth into the psychology of trading and really hammers-home the point that every trade’s outcome is essentially random, a 50/50 shot, and that is how you need to view it. However, that doesn’t mean that overtime, over a SERIES OF TRADES your edge is only 50/50. It means that there is a random distribution of wins and losses for any given trading edge. So, you could have 20 losses in a row followed by 40 winners in a row (rare, but possible). However, that is a 66.6%-win rate over the series of 60 trades. But, most traders cannot mentally withstand even a few losses in a row, let alone 20, do you catch my drift here?You must remember that any one trade, looked at in a vacuum / apart from the rest, simply doesn’t matter. As a result, you need to think and behave in agreement this fact. Meaning, if you are analyzing your trading performance, you cannot care AT ALL about any one trade, it is the overall results, the series of many trades that proves your performance. It will do you a WORLD OF GOOD to remember these points every time you’re about to enter that next trade. This attitude and approach is part of my set and forget trading philosophy. Remember, you must let your trading edge play out sans interference on your part, otherwise you cannot properly gauge its performance over-time as a trading approach.Money and Trade Management Questions:6. Do I know my per-trade (1R) risk amount?If you don’t have a pre-determined risk amount where (1R = dollars risked), you are probably not making money as a trader. You need to sit down and determine how many dollars or euros or pounds or whatever, you can realistically afford to lose per trade. Make this an amount you could potentially lose 10 to 20 times in a row and still be financially and mentally stable. I always tell traders to do a simple sleep test for risk, in which they let their ability to forget about their trades and sleep soundly determine if they’re risking a healthy amount for them, or not.7. Did I use position sizing properly?Did you apply the correct position size to the trade? This goes together with question number six, above. If you don’t understand position sizing, please read my article on risk reward and position sizing, to learn more. But, to put it succinctly, position sizing means adjusting the number of lots (your position size) to meet your pre-determined 1R risk amount per trade whilst considering your stop loss placement, which we will talk about next. Always determine stop loss placement before position size. You risk per trade should stay the same. You find the best stop loss placement to give the trade a good chance of working out (don’t put stops too close) and then you adjust your position size to meet your 1R risk.8. Is the risk reward there, realistically?Is the risk reward there? Meaning, is there a logical profit target available relative to nearby key chart levels that allows you to get a 2 to 1 winner or more? You need to make sure that your stop loss and profit target both make sense in the context of the surrounding market structure, to learn more about this, checkout my article I wrote a few years back on how to place stops and targets like a pro.9. Do I have a plan to exit this trade? Do you have an exit plan for this trade? What is your overall plan to exit this trade for either a win or a loss? Are you planning to exit at a certain horizontal level or are you planning to trail your stop and let the trade run because it’s in a strong trend? Will you move to breakeven at a certain point or just set and forget? These details should be ironed-out before entering the trade. If a dramatic turn of events happens whilst the trade is live (like a huge price action reversal against your position, for example) you can intervene, but in most cases, you want to pre-determine your exit strategy and stick to that no matter what. Checkout my guide to trade exits for more on this.10. Does it fit my trading plan?Finally, if you’ve answered all the above questions successfully, then your answer to this last question should be “yes”. Your trading plan can be a checklist like this, although yours will be more detailed, and only if a trade passes each filter should you give it the “OK”. Don’t worry, eventually, the process of going through each filter will become a habit and something you almost don’t even need to think about it. You will intuitively know if a trade passes all your filters and criteria because you will have gone through your checklist / plan manually so many times that it will have seared itself into your brain, it will become part of you.ConclusionWe all need guidance in life, we all need mentors to improve and excel. I can be your trading mentor by teaching you what I know and what I have learned via my trading coursesand members community, but it’s up to you to put in the ‘hard-work’ and follow-through with what you learn. Today’s lesson is another piece of the trading puzzle; you need to actually make a checklist like this and put it to use in your day-to-day trading and if you do, I guarantee you will see an improvement in your trading. You are going to naturally be more selective and methodical regarding which trades you take and how you trade the market.Make this trading checklist a part of your daily trading routine and you will wonder how you ever traded without it.

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  • 01 Feb
    • 18.02.01 アメリカ大統領の教書

      大きな影響はまだ出ていないようです。強いドル、選挙公約では弱いドルに誘導だったのですが、・・・とりあえずドル買いがいいのかも。但し、他の通貨との関係は弱いドルのままのようです。【相場観】金:買い注文白金:買い転換かゴム:売り。突っ込み買いか?ガソリン:売り。戻り売り原油:売りコーン:買い

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    • 18.01.31 急落に備えての、逆指値注文が有効

      5分足などを見ながらの、成り行き落ちも有効。そして今日は月に2回の珍しい満月、皆既月食。日本海側は曇りで見えないところが多いとか。関東でも、欠け始めは曇り空だったとか。特別の呼び名がついているとか。【相場観】金:売り。そうはいっても底打ちの可能性大。白金:売り。絶好の押し目買い狙い。ゴム:売り。買い場か。ガソリン:売り。原油:売り。コーン:買い。オイル系は下降トレンド確定らしい。貴金属、ゴム系は調整安で終わって再度上昇か。

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  • 30 Jan
  • 29 Jan
    • 18.01.29 How To Catch That Runaway Market Trend

      It’s no secret that some of the major stock market indices have been screaming higher recently. If you look at an S&P500 daily chart for example, it’s been on fire for well over a year now, especially since the second half of 2017. To the outsider who doesn’t actively trade, it may seem super easy to take advantage of these one-way markets, but not so fast.For those of us who’ve been around the trading block a few times, we know the feeling of the deer in the headlights during these runaway moves; you keep waiting for a pullback to get on-board, but the market just keeps going higher or lower, without you. Or, you keep telling yourself “This trend has gone too far, it HAS to reverse soon, right?!” So, this obviously begs the question, how can we take advantage of these ‘runaway trends’?The following points will get you up to speed on how to properly tackle and take advantage of the beauty and power of a runaway trending market…What is a runaway trend?Firstly, you must be clear on what a runaway trend actually looks like. Whilst there is no universally agreed upon definition of what constitutes a runaway trend, it’s fairly obvious as to when there is one and when there isn’t.There is a concept that I call a ‘perfect trend’ wherein a market is respecting the reversion to the mean (think pullbacks to moving averages, see course for more) and nearby horizontal levels as it repels or bounces cleanly away from them on every attempt at a rotation (retracement). I discuss this concept a bit more in an article I wrote on how to identify the trend on charts. Now, let’s look at very good, dare I say ‘perfect’ example of a runaway or ‘perfect trend’ that has been underway for well over a year in the S&P500 index…One concept to understand about these runaway trends is that one of the characteristics they exhibit is very small pullbacks or retraces back to value. For those of you new to this, a retrace back to value simply means price pulling back to a support (in uptrend) or resistance level (in downtrend), this can also be called reversion to the mean as mentioned previously. So, to put it succinctly, the stronger the trend, the shallower the pullbacks will be within it. The important consequence of this phenomenon, is that when a market isn’t pulling back much (because it’s in a very strong trend) and price is shooting to new highs or lows with no nearby obvious horizontal levels (especially as in the case of new all-time highs or lows, like the S&P500 right now) to slow its movement, the market can EASILY continue surging higher or lower.So, it’s sort of a positive feedback loop if you will; price is moving aggressively in one direction with little to no pullbacks because the underlying fundamentals of the market are very strong and because there are no technical levels to impede it. More and more people pile on and price just keeps sailing in the same direction, offering you very little in the way of trading the pullbacks, but if you know how to take advantage of this, it can be very (dare I say) easy money.One important aspect of runaway trends that is sometimes overlooked is that closing prices are the most relevant price factor in the technical analysis of a market. Now, what exactly do I mean by that? Well, in a strong trend, we need to pay more attention to the closing prices than any other price, because that closing price is likely to be a clue as to what will happen next (reading the price action). Closing prices mean more than just where market has been, the close is the information that lets us know if something is confirmed or failed.When trying to determine trends and looking for signs of runaway / strong trends that are starting up, the weekly chart takes precedence…but be careful, candlestick charts can ‘hide’ this information or make it harder to see at first. For this reason, I always scan through a line chart on the daily and weekly in an attempt to identify a market that is beginning to trend or is already trending. It is much easier to see if a strong trend is underway in a line chart (applied to close) because it filter out all the wicks / tails of the candles and just shows you the direction and key levels and what happened at the levels. If you don’t believe me, pull up a daily candle chart and then switch it to a daily line chart, you will see new information you probably didn’t see originally.Watch the main key weekly levels in an established trend. This can protect against shake-outs and provide a much clearer picture for filtering all the wicks of candles. To do this, you can switch over to a line chart as it will filter out the wicks / tails of price bars to give us a smoother view of the overall picture.How to trade runaway trends Okay, so now that we know what a runaway trend is and a basic way to identify them, let’s discuss how you can take advantage of their power, so that you are no longer that ‘deer in the headlights’.Perhaps the biggest thing to understand is that there won’t be major pullbacks to levels in a very strong trend. So, rather than just waiting around for a pullback that never comes, let’s see how we can get on-board a strongly trending market.The primary thing you are going to focus on is intraday pullbacks, I am talking here about the 4 hour and 1-hour chart time frame with price action signals to confirm entries. You are going to want to apply the 8 and 21 daily chart exponential moving averages (emas) because price will often pull back to this dynamic value or support / resistance area before moving on with the trend again. We can also mark short-term or nearby horizontal support and resistance levels to look to trade from them. Another good option is breakouts, specifically inside bar breakouts in a runaway trend, these are fairly common and let you take advantage of a trend that isn’t pulling back. Let’s look at some examples….In the chart below, we see a nice example of a recent and current runaway trend underway in the Dow Jones Index. Pay close attention to the small pullbacks that happened to the 8 and 21-day emas (red and blue lines) as these are going to be your most common pullback opportunities in such a strong trend. Note the horizontal level as it will be important on the subsequent chart…Next, look at the 4-hour chart of the same market from above. The pullback we discussed above to the 8-day ema resulted in a 4-hour pin bar buy signal as we see below. This is how you can successfully catch a runaway trend! You have the trend, then all you need is a level or a signal, as in my T.L.S trading approach, here we had a strong trend and a strong signal, boom.In the next chart, we are looking at a side by side recent example (January 24th, 2018) of how to use the 1-hour chart to look for high-probability entries into a runaway trend. This is the same chart as above, the DOW30, we can see a minor pullback last week to the 8-day ema on the left, which resulted in the very nice pin bar signal on the 1-hour chart on the right. When you see a signal like this form, it really should be a no-brainer to enter it, set stop below pin low and print some money…The key is waiting for a signal like this to form and not jumping in on low-quality / non-obvious signals or on anything under a 1-hour time frame…Important note: Now, it’s important to understand that we are not “intraday trading” by doing the above, instead, we are using 4 houror 1 hour or daily charts to confirm entries on trades that may last for days or weeks. Just because you enter a trade on an intraday chart doesn’t make you a day trader! Using an intraday chart to find an entry into a strong daily or weekly chart trend is simply a way to refine and find an entry into a runaway trend, but we are not jumping in and out of the market constantly as a day trader would.To take advantage of breakouts in a runaway trend, my favorite plays are inside bar patterns and my proprietary fakey trading signal. Inside bars are common on the daily chart in a very strong / runaway trend because the market will make a brief pause after its most recent move before shooting higher (uptrend) or lower again (downtrend). Below, you can see some examples of recent inside bar breakouts and a multi-bar fakey pattern that led to a trend continuation and provided savvy price action traders a low-risk and very high reward potential trade entry…The psychology of runaway trends.The biggest thing to remember regarding your mentality when dealing with very strongly trending markets is to not over think. Markets go further than we often think they will, so remember to trade with trend until it clearly ends!One of the main drivers of large sustained trends is the fact that the market continues to weed-out the people betting against it (there are more than you’d think), remember that when a trader goes short and bets against a bull market,if the market goes up they must cover that position by buying, this in turn leads to further bullishness and a swarm of fresh orders.These runaway trends can fuel themselves in this way for a very long time, so don’t bet against them!Just like a freight train is incredibly difficult to stop and takes a long time to slow down let alone reverse direction, a strongly trending market is a force to be reckoned with. Its momentum and power also make it the best market condition to trade in and provide the closest thing for ‘easy money’ that you will find in the trading realm. Unfortunately, these runaway trends don’t come around very often, so when we spot a market in a runaway trend we need to know what to do and we need to act decisively, and the strategies discussed here today are a good starting point for you.

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  • 27 Jan
    • 18.01.27 荒れた大相撲

      ドル安は続く。底打ち確認後に買い出動。金もドルの影響を受けるので、注目。【相場観】金:揉み合いながらも、買い有利。白金:買いゴム:売りから買い転換か?ガソリン:売り原油:売りコーン:売り。損切・薄利が続く展開か。

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