丸亀のkappaのブログ
  • 25May
    • 18.05.24-2 新しい大関の誕生・・・横綱の引退近し???

      力負けしたのか、良い体制をとれなかったのか、勝った力士が強かったのか?来場所が楽しみです。処で、日大の危機管理はひどかった。あの司会者は自分を何様だと思っているのか、立派と思われている経歴の持ち主らしいが、品格がなかった。聞く耳を持たない。【相場観】金:売り。とはいうものの、レンジ相場につき?? トレンド系の手法は損切りまたは損切に近い利益の少ないトレードが続くだろう。白金:買いと思ったら売りになっちゃった。魅力のない時間帯。ゴム:売り。押し目買いが有効かもしれない。ガソリン:売り。とは言うものの10日移動平均線の上ですので、打診売りです。調整波と判断していますので、2,3日様子見です。原油:売り。コーン:売り。とは言うものの押し目買い有利か。【テクニカル】RSIで売られすぎらしい所、買われすぎらしいところを見つける。波動論で、推進波・調整波を見る。上位時間軸での平均足、トレードする時間軸での平均足。以上環境認識取引する時間軸での平均足、色の変化、実体、ひげを総合的に判断して、仕掛けの注文を出す。手仕舞い・行き過ぎで手仕舞う・・・・うまくいけば大きい利益、間違えればもっと大きく獲れたのに。・ボリンジャーバンドの±2シグマから内側に乖離したところ・・・早すぎることがある。・10日移動平均線を跨いだ時。・最終決裁時・・・仕掛けた理由がなくなったとき。やっと、ルールらしいものが出来上がったような気がする。次の段階は・検証・実践・ブラッシュアップ

      NEW!

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  • 24May
    • 18.05.24 売買ルールの見直し

      平均足単独では騙しが多い・・・保ち合いに弱い。平均足とMACDの組み合わせ平均足と移動平均線の組み合わせ平均足とRSIのくみあわせ平均足とパラボリック平均足と一目等々あるが、・・・・ 平均足とRSIの組み合わせがよさそうです。フィルターにRSIを用いることで、仕掛けがかなり減ります。ということはロスカットが減る・・・・儲けやすいということにつながります。大相場をとるということで、小次郎講師の、  3つの大循環分析の組み合わせも面白そうです。但し、相場に絶対はないので、  ロスカットルール(名前が気に入らない・・・・手仕舞いルール)をしっかり決めてからの、運用になります。

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    • 18.05.23 保身の大人

      保身を図りたい気持ちはわかるが、嘘はダメでしょう。幼稚園児の様なウソ。【相場観】金:買い白金:買いゴム:買いガソリン:買い原油:買いコーン:買い

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  • 23May
    • 18.05.22 

      金:買い白金:買いゴム:買いガソリン:買い原油:買いコーン:買い

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  • 21May
    • 18.05.21 日大問題

      サラリーマンの出世欲。保身のたまもの。パウアーハラスメント。優勝すれば、保身が図れる、給料アップになる。相手選手を退場に持ち込む・・・・昔のアメリカで実際にあった。プロ野球でも、相手がけがをするようなプレイがあった、今でもあるようですが。勝つためには手段を択ばない、人間としていかがなものか。上司が悪いと、部下がかわいそう、部下が不幸になる。一生を棒に振ることになる。話は変わって、大相撲・女人禁制その昔、女性は神様だった。。蛇足、天照大御神も、女性です。土俵にも神様(女性)がいる、と信じられている。女性を土俵に上げると、女性の神様がお怒りになられる。だから女性を土俵に上げてはならない、ということになったようです。【相場観】金:買い白金:売りゴム:買いガソリン:買い原油:買いコーン:買い

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  • 19May
    • 18.05.18

      【相場観】金:売り。とは言うものの足はピンバー後の高値越え、買い目線白金:売りゴム:買いガソリン:買い。ボリンジャーバンドの2σを大きく上回ったところは利食い場でしょう。原油:買いコーン:買い

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  • 18May
    • 18.05.17 勝つ秘訣

      強い人と競争しないこと。勝つとわかっているときだけ、戦うこと。相場でいえば、大底確認、上げ始めを、現受け覚悟の買い。ナンピンの買い下がりはしない方針、資金がいっぱいある人は、あくまで現物を購入するつもりでの丸代金を持っての買い下がり。数年来の高値で、部分的に売り、現物渡しの売りです。これなら破産はしないでしょうし、利益も出るでしょう。金スポットの、現受け覚悟の買い、これは無期限に近いので有効でしょう。現物を受けることのできる会社がおすすめです。 何故、上場来安値を更新したらどうする? その前に空売り、でリスクヘッジも考えましょう。このとき現物を持っていると安心感があります。 また、現物を持っていると、子供に譲れますから。【相場観】金:売り白金:売りゴム:売り。安値更新していないので、売り注文成立していないが、・・・ガソリン;買い。危険な考え、値ごろ売り、原油:買い。コーン:買い

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  • 15May
    • 18.05.15 同じものを見て売り買い分かれるこの不思議

      【相場観】金:買い白金:売りゴム:売りガソリン:買い原油:買いコーン:売りオイル系;拭き値売りのタイミングか?Why Two Different Traders Can See The Same Chart Very DifferentlyA curious fact of trading is that you can take two different traders and give them the exact same chart and even the same trading pattern, and you will end up with very different results. With everything else being equal like knowledge, trading experience and access to information, why do two different traders behave so differently when they are looking at the exact same market data?I started thinking about this when my friend and I had been discussing a chart of a market we both had open trades on. At that time the market was moving against both of us quite severely and it struck me as odd that we had very different views even though we had the same trade on and the same thing was happening. I had concluded it was probably due to the fact one of us had a much larger position than the other, and one of us was clearly far less attached to the trade/chart because they had much less to lose and less skin in the game.This is of course just one of the possible reasons we saw this trade and the chart of this market very differently; in fact, there is a plethora of reasons we could have both reached different conclusions and I wanted to write a lesson and bring these factors into the spotlight. You may read these points and start nodding your head and have one of those “aha” moments, and hopefully this gets you thinking more about the fact that multiple perspectives can exist at the same time in the market, i.e., yours and your opponents (those on the other side of your trade). Thinking about these different perspectives and WHY they might exist will only work to make you a better trader.Over-committedpositionIt is my belief that the more money a trader risks on a trade relative to their overall net worth, the more emotionally invested in that trade they will be. It seems like commonsense perhaps, but the implications of this are quite profound…When you become over-committed to a trade or to an investment, you are FAR more likely to make a mistake. For this reason, two traders can literally be in the exact same trade, but if one has risked a much higher percentage of their net worth, they are most likely going to see the chart much differently and react to it much differently, than the trader who has risked a ‘safer’ amount.The take-away point of this, is that the more money you have at risk, the more emotionally-charged you will be at every up and down tick of that chart. When you are very emotional about a position (usually due to being over-committed, money-wise) you are more likely to see a short-term reversal in that position as an impending market correct that may go WELL past your entry point, causing you to lose money. So, what do you? Inevitably, when faced with this powerful emotion of FEAR, you will exit that trade for probably either a very small gain relative to what you had (since you’re exiting as the market is coming back toward your entry) or you will exit near breakeven. Granted, this is still much better than a loss, but it can be very painful and mess with your trading mindset, leading to more mistakes.To the trader who wasn’t over-committed, that same correction may have been viewed differently; as a simple market correction. That trader may have held the trade and now is well into the money as the chart turned around just as the previous trader bailed.This is really just one of many examples of how risking too much or being over-committed to a position can cause you to panic and self-sabotage your trades.To reiterate my point; two traders, one has risked way too much, the other has risked a much smaller amount, the one who risks too much will almost always panic and mess up the trade, the one who didn’t risk too much is more likely to have a favorably trading result.Bias of no position or positionSimply by being in a position, by having ‘skin in the game’ so to speak, you may view the chart differently than a trader who has not taken a position in that market. Even if you are staying within your per-trade risk parameters and following your trading plan to the T, you are going to be at least slightly influenced by the fact that you have your hard-earned money on the line and could potentially lose it. This is essentially why trading is not easy and it’s not for the weak minded or easily shaken personality.It’s a curious fact that when you are demo-trading with paper-money, you are probably going to get better results than when you trade live. The reason is, it’s paper-money, not real money. The key to trading success truly is trying to forget about the money and trading the markets as if it’s all a game and the money is just a way of keeping score, a tally of points, so to speak. The only way to effectively do this is to NOT be over-committed. You have to basically try to see the chart as if you have no position in the market, even if you do.Recency bias based on trade outcomesTwo traders, trading the same setup on the same chart may see that chart differently due to something called recency bias. Recency bias means you have a bias or an opinion / feeling about something due to an experience you had recently with that same or similar thing. So, trader A may have seen this ‘same’ scenario before and had a trade on and lost money, whereas trader B may have made money on market conditions similar to what they’re seeing now.As stated in an article in USnews & World Report titled 7 Behavioral Biases that May Hurt Your Investments: It’s no secret that retail investors tend to chase investment performance, often piling into an asset class just as it is peaking and about to reverse lower. Because the investment has been climbing higher recently, investors believe that will remain the case.As humans, we are all influenced by recent events more heavily than past ones, it’s just part of being human. This can be good and bad in trading. Market conditions that are trending strongly lend to recency bias being beneficial; because if you keep getting in the trend on pullbacks you’ll likely keep making money. However, when the trend changes and the market starts moving sideways, you are likely going to get chopped up if you don’t quickly read the price action and figure out the conditions are changing.Interestingly, there are many different personality biases that can affect how any individual sees the market.Too attached to the market or to the initial viewPeople can become emotionally attached to charts / certain markets or just to their initial view on a chart for a variety of reasons, not only from being over-committed financially.Take a trader who has researched a certain market extensively and studied the chart a lot, they are probably going to become very attached to a view once they take one. They will feel their time spent studying XYZ market has to have been worth something and they can’t bear to think the market isn’t doing what they want. This causes them to look for news articles and web stories that support their view on the chart (after all, you can find any opinion on anything online). This is essentially letting arrogance and ego dictate your trading behavior. You can become over-attached to a chart simply because you don’t want to believe you are wrong or that all your research has been for naught.This is essentially what is called the over-confidence bias. This is caused by spending too much time studying a market and ‘convincing’ yourself you are right about what will happen next. Traders also get over-confident after a winning trade because they tend to become overly-optimistic about their recent decision and attribute too much of the win to something they did rather than just a statistical occurrence of their edge playing out.To learn more about different behavior biases, check out this article from internationalbanker.com: Why Biases Lead to Irrational Investment Decisions, and How to Fight BackAnother trader who maybe doesn’t have this mental hurdle becuase they haven’t done the research and the study is arguably at an advantage to the trader above. When you spend less time on something you are naturally more neutral and less committed to it. This gives a fresh perspective and more importantly, a more objective one.In trading, objectivity is key and this is why I am generally against trading the news or paying too close attention to fundamental data. Beyond learning to trade price action and understanding basic trading terminology, there is no real advantage to increasing amounts market research, in fact, it may actually hurt you because of what we have just discussed.Indicators vs. clean chartsOne obvious reason two traders will view the same chart differently is indicators. Some traders like to plaster their charts in technical analysis indicators that literally make the charts look like a piece of modern abstract art.The trader who uses clean, simple price action charts without indicators plastered all over them, will inevitably have a different perspective on the same market; a clearer and more accurate one.Trend follower vs contrarianSimilar to the above point, there is truth that two traders who have historically made money trading the markets different ways, are going to see the same chart differently. For example…Trader A may see a chart going up, but because he is a natural contrarian (wants to trade opposite to near-term momentum) he wants to short into the strength, ideally at a key level, because he has made money doing this before (recency bias). He hates trading with the herd.Trader B may see that same chart going up and he is looking to go long! Because he too has made money doing this. He has traded trends and made good money. He can’t ever seem to go against the herd.Neither approach is necessarily right or wrong; there are multiple ways to skin a fish, so to speak. Whilst it is more dangerous to trade against near-term trends, some traders just have a knack at fading the market, or picking the places the market will reverse (contrarians). However, for most traders, sticking with the trend is the best bet.The point is that each person is going to see the exact same chart, setup, pattern in the market a little bit differently and for a variety of reasons discussed above, react differently to the same market movement.ConclusionTwo traders can indeed see the same chart differently and more often than not they will get different results from the exact same trading setup on the exact same chart. The common unifier in trading is the price action on the chart, it really is the great equalizer. The price action takes into account ALL variables affecting a market and that have affected it in the past and displays it to you in a relatively easy to read clue-packed ‘portrait’. Learning to read the price action is how you can eliminate or greatly reduce most of the variables in the markets that confuse and complicate the trading process for most.Most of the reason two traders see the same chart differently is due to lack of discipline. Some traders chronically risk too much per trade, which obviously greatly influences their perception of what a market is doing and what it might do next. Whilst I can teach you the importance of discipline and explain to you why you need it, I cannot force you to actually get and stay disciplined in your day-to-day trading routine. I can show you the door to trading success via my trading courses and I can lead you to the proper path, but I cannot make the journey for you, that is up to you. So, what you have to decide next is how are you going to view the same charts everyone else is looking at? Will you view them through emotionally-charged eyes and indicator-riddled screens, or will you view them through calm, collected eyes with smooth, clean charts? That is also up to you…

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  • 14May
    • 18.05.14 セミナーで教わったこと

      トレードは、職人芸。一つの道にまい進すること。・それには不器用なほうが良い。・単純なことの繰り返し。・飽きることなく、親方、師匠のいうことを繰り返す。トレードも、一つの武器・技を習得し、それを磨く。・タートルズ流は、20日の高値・安値ブレイクという単純な方法だけを教えた。・手法は1つだけだったが、相場の本質も教えたようで、いろいろな手法で儲ける卒業生を輩出した。なまじっか器用だと、目移りして、大成しないものらしい。器用だけれども、集中力があって、専門化したものがあれば、また成功できるものらしい。【相場観】金:買い白金:買いゴム:売りガソリン:買い原油:買いコーン:売り

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  • 11May
    • 18.05.10

      【相場観】金:買い転換白金:買いゴム:買いガソリン:買い。そろそろ売場か原油:買い。売り場探しコーン:買い

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  • 10May
    • 18.05.09 アメリカ大統領は、選挙公約を守る⁉

      但し、議会の承認が不要なものに限る、そのほかのものはむつかしい。イランも大変だ。第三次世界大戦、継続中【相場観】金:売り白金:買いゴム:売りガソリン:買い。大きく下げたところは絶好の買い場だったかも、kappaは手出しできなかった、残念原油:買いコーン:買い。転換を暗示するチャート。

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  • 09May
    • 18.05.08 トランプ大統領発言、どう出る???

      特に、為替、オイル系に影響を与えるか?どっちに振れてもよいように、資金管理だけしていればよい。ストップロスも考慮しての資金管理です。【上から目線】  相場で勝つ秘訣・相場に100%はない、上げ下げのランダムウォークが延々と続くだけである。ランダムウォークと言っても、ある特定の時間帯は上げ(または下げ)の力が強い時がある。トレンドは人気によって作られる。その時に大勝、大きな利益を上げるよう心掛ける。そして確率の大数の法則で勝つ。・破産するのは、大きくかけて少数の法則が当てはまるときが来た時。円周率πは無限小数であるが、7が7個以上続く(少数の法則)ところもある、普通同じ数字が7回以上も続くことはないが、稀に発生する。稀にと書いたが意外と多いのも事実。こういうところで負けが続くと、資金管理がいい加減だと破産する。少数の法則で破産する。少数の法則にうまく乗れば、巨万の富を得ることができる。・大底と思われるときに阿呆になって買う(本間宗久の手法)現受け覚悟の買い。これも資金管理、大底と判断する確率の問題・・・これで資産を増やす。【相場観】金:売り白金:買いゴム:買いガソリン:買い原油:買いコーン:売り

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  • 07May
    • 18.05.07 The Psychological Advantages of Set and

      【相場観】金:売り白金:買いゴム:買いガソリン:買い原油:買いコーン:買いThe Psychological Advantages of Set and Forget Trading RegimesSet and forget trading is a phrase that I coined several years back in an article I wrote on the topic. It’s a trading approach that works if you follow it, to put it simply. For this reason, I write about it often, and those of you who have been following me for some time no doubt understand the main benefits of the set and forget trading approach.However, in today’s lesson, I want to focus on the psychological aspects and benefits of the set and forget approach and why it will help your trading performance, based on my personal experiences.We get many members who email us regularly with success stories after they have adopted the set and forget approach. Hopefully, more of you will start trialing this concept because there is nothing that makes me happier than hearing my students’ success stories.As you may already know from some of my other articles on this topic, set and forget trading works partially because of the way it helps you to systemize the entry, stop and target of your trades. By allowing the edge to play out uninterrupted, without you fiddling with it for arbitrary reasons, your long-term trading performance will improve simply as a ‘side-effect’.However, there are also some very important mental benefits of set and forget trading which I don’t often discuss.In this lesson,I want to focus on the psychological benefits of set and forget trading to help more of you make the mental transition to this style of trading. By committing to the trade completely before you even place it, it means you’re identifying the trade, placing the orders and walking away with very little monitoring. It also means being at peace and avoiding the emotional ups and downs that come with watching your trades as they are live. It means walking away and letting the market ‘do the work’ whilst you go do something more productive or fun. It means removing yourself from the temptations of chart-watching and getting influenced by chart whipsaws from news releases, short-term volatility and so on. In short, it means setting and forgetting!By understanding the mental advantages of set and forget trading,perhaps you will gain a deeper understanding of its power and begin trading this way sooner.Mental advantages…1. Significantly Reduce Stress & Emotional Ups & DownsTrading can be as stressful or as stress-free as you want it to be, it all depends on what you do. If you sit there staring at the charts all night when you should be asleep, you are doing to drive-up your body’s stress response and your cortisol (stress hormone) levels will sky-rocket both from the lack of sleep and from over-thinking about your trades.Now, as if the stress wasn’t bad enough, it’s going to get worse. You’re also going to hurt your trading performance by doing what I described above, this will work to further increase your stress levels. Eventually, you will be tired, angry, frustrated, on the verge of tears and left with an empty trading account.By employing my set and forget trading approach, you can eliminate all this stress, worry and losing! Show me a set and forget trader and I will show you a stress-free trader who is on the path to trading success. There have been studies done on investors / traders and their trading performance in relation to their trading frequency, and they always show that less-involved traders do better over the long-run. Similarly, even though trading is a male-dominated arena, when women do step into it they tend to do much better on average than men. Why? Simple; they do not over-trade as much and they do not risk too much like many men do. The reason has to do with men having higher testosterone levels (a hormone that makes men take more risks and feel over-confident, things that can hurt you in trading). I have an article in which I discuss this female vs. male trading phenomena more in-depth, check it out: What is The Weakest Link in Your Trading? Suffice it to say, us men are not always right, and we can and should learn from women sometimes and trading seems to be one area where we can benefit from their seemingly innate ability to set and forget their trades.2. Help Cure Your Obsessive Chart-WatchingHave you ever heard of positive reinforcement? It’s when you get a reward from doing the right thing this will then reinforce whatever the ‘right thing’ was that you did, so that hopefully you keep doing it. It works on kids and it can work on adults too, especially in trading.When you watch charts all the time, you are probably going to lose money, so the chart-watching is a negative behavior. The tricky part here is that the act of chart-watching can feel very good while you’re doing it (dopamine – the chemical in your brain that gives you the rush you get from the ‘hope’ of making money), so you are essentially getting a mental reward from committing a negative behavior and you are reinforcing a negative behavior by continuing to do this. Therefore, traders get stuck in an addictive cycle of watching charts, making the same mistakes over and over and losing money.But, YOU CAN STOP THIS and YOU CAN REVERSE IT! By utilizing set and forget trading you can literally begin to reinforce positive behavior rather than negative. This will work like a positive feedback loop in which the improved performance you see from behaving properly in the markets works to make you want to continue that positive behavior. It’s no different than someone who sticks to a regime of exercise over a period of months; soon enough the endorphins and improved strength and energy-levels begin to reinforce the behavior of working out consistently. Yes, in the beginning it may seem like a ‘boring’ chore you don’t want to do and it may even hurt a little, but rest assured, that pain is good for you.Setting and forgetting your trades is truly the key to eliminating almost every negative trading behavior that traders have. You need to implement this sooner than later.A man smarter than me once said; “Suffer the pain of discipline or suffer the pain of regret”. That means, pay your dues, be disciplined now and it will pay off later, or you can continue to act lazy and undisciplined and you will suffer the pain of regret later.3. Sleep at Night – Know What You Stand to Lose or MakeSleep is critical to all physical and mental process in the human body. There are thousands of studies on this. I can tell you for a 100% iron-clad fact that IF you are losing sleep from watching charts and worrying about losing too much or not winning enough, you are hurting your trading performance and you are starting down the road to reinforcing negative trading habits as we discussed in point 2.When you are using set and forget trading, your stop loss and profit targets are pre-defined, so you know what you stand to lose and what you stand to win on any given trade. I can tell you from experience, this makes it a lot easier to get and stay asleep at night so don’t under-estimate this benefit!This brings up another point; when you know what you stand to lose or win on a trade it goes a long way towards eliminating greedy behavior. Greed is a huge reason traders fail. It causes them to hold trades too long whether the trade is moving in their favor or against them. How many times have you been in a big winning trade and you didn’t take the profit because you had no profit target or because you moved your profit target from its initial setting? This is greed. Being greedy inevitably causes traders to end up with no money.Bulls make money, bears make money, Pigs? Pigs get slaughtered! That is one of the oldest Wall Street sayings and it rings louder than perhaps any other, still to this day.When you set a profit target and stick to it, you aren’t being greedy, so over-time you should end up making money. When you set a stop loss and stick to it, you can pre-define your risk to a dollar amount you’re mentally OK with (potentially) losing. When you adjust your risk properly and you know what you can lose, you should have no problem setting your trade and walking away.Disclaimer: There is never a 100% certain outcome for any trade and losses can sometimes exceed stop losses due to slippage.4. Exercise the Mental Muscles of Routine & DisciplineWhen you make the commitment to start set and forget trading, you are kicking off a process that is self-reinforcing and will continue to strengthen the longer you use it. The power of routine and discipline, of repeating an effective system or process and staying accountable to THAT, will help you accelerate your development of the proper trading habits.Once you have the proper trading habits in place you will see improved trading performance which gives rise to a huge surge of trading confidence in both yourself and what you’re doing. This reinforces the routine you started with and it all stems from committing to the set and forget trading approach.Here is what this looks like in a diagram. Notice that set and forget is in the center, because it really all starts with that idea – once you commit you will quickly figure out the proper trading routine from the help of my articles and trading courses, then it really starts to almost ‘take care of itself’ as long as you stay disciplined and stick to the set and forget plan.The set and forget ‘wheel’ of trading success:5. Confidence Through Achieving Better Trading ResultsConfidence in business, trading or even in your personal life is something that truly is so important has no dollar value; it is invaluable. Confidence breeds more confidence and it works to reinforce those positive trading habits we discussed earlier. By trading properly not only are you reinforcing positive trading habits but you’re breeding confidence in yourself and your ability to stick to a plan, this confidence helps you stick to what was working. It’s all a positive feedback loop as I said before.Confidence is spawned by the momentum of winning trades or at the very least, having better trading experiences and having more control over the capital in your account; the strategic planning that set and forget allows, that results in improved results.It’s not going to happen all at once, but over time, when you master this style of trading, you will start to feel more in control because you’re controlling the things you can and not trying to control the things you can’t (the market’s movement is uncontrollable).Being more confident will spawn more motivation to continue mastering the act of finding the trade and placing the trade. It’s just like the earlier example I gave of exercise; when you get over the initial ‘pain’ of it or the initial ‘I don’t want to do this feeling’ and you start seeing positive results, it’s going to inject you with a whole boat-load of motivation and confidence that will work to fuel your on-going progress and quest for being the best. This will give you the willpower and discipline you need to get make it as a trader.ConclusionI focus on the set and forget approach and 95% of the time I will resign to the fact I’m about to lose XYZ or make XYZ on a trade; this works to eliminate the potential of making emotional mistakes. The expectancy of my trading method combined with the set and forget money management approach has helped me, as well as many of my studentsimprove their trading.It’s not an exact science, and of course there will be times trades are adjusted and there are times that no amount of mechanical money management can override the natural human emotion of trading, but we are not after perfection, we are after training and exercising the mind to be able to let go of the need to control the outcomes and control the market, after all the market is going to do what it’s going to do with or without us watching it or trading it.All we can is control ourselves and our own behaviors in the market and that is what set and forget trading is all about.

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    • 18.05.06 多くの時間軸でのトレード

      それも面白いが、・・・・2way player も面白い。逆張りと順張りの2刀流。仕掛けは順張り、利食いは逆張りも、いと面白い。逆張りの大家と言えば、バフェット氏。ファンダメンタルズ分析と逆張りの組み合わせです。

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  • 04May
    • 18.05.04-2 日本発のテクニカル分析

      練行(光)足、練り足ともいうようです、あちらの国ではrenko(ashi)と表記されているようです。平均足、コマ足とも、平均コマ足ともいわれているようです、あちらの国では、heikin-ashiともheiken-ashiともいわれているようです。一目均衡表、ichimokuと呼ばれているようです。練行足はパラメーター設定が必要ですが、一目と平均足はその必要がありません。外人はこれらを使って儲けているとか。私たち日本人も先人の知恵を借りて儲けようではありませんか。【相場観】金:売り白金:売りゴム:買いガソリン:買い原油:売りコーン:買い

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    • 18.05.04-2 聖杯

      本間さまには及びもないが、せめてなりたや殿様にここに、聖杯はある。宗久の本質 バーゲンハンター 噴き値売り、高値売り。現物取引だからこそできる手法です。ここに至るまでに、宗久も破産しました。

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    • 18.05.04 憲法問題

      大事なことをテレビ、新聞は報道しない。日本が、外国から攻撃されていることを。何故??? 報道機関にとって不利だから。だから新聞、テレビは批判的に見る。tokio.何故、これがニュースになる? 大事なことを隠すため。被害者の人権を踏みにじった報道。報道すること自体が被害者いじめにつながる。基本的考え、報道機関の本質;  弱い者いじめです。北朝鮮も弱い者いじめです。白人は差別主義者が多いようです。 日本人は、白人社会から見れば肌の色が違うので一等国になることに耐えられなかった、だから第1次世界大戦後、いろいろと手を打ってきた。 心ある人は調べて見られるがよいでしょう。しっぺ返しの恐れがないものをいじめる、これ、国も個人も同じです。そして、大蔵省と政府との闘い これの延長戦が、政府と財務省の戦い、更に、財務省に加担する野党、マスメディア。批判的に見ていると、本質が見え作るようです。組織のエゴ、個人のエゴ。

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  • 02May
    • 18.05.01 

      You cannot improve without practice.練習なくして、上達はあり得ない。ことわざとしては: Practice makes perfect.トレードにおける練習とは何か。・エントリーとエグジット・その都度計算するサイズ、取引数量【相場観】金:売り白金:売りゴム:買い。チャートのマジック、新補発会すると限月かわりで不思議なチャートになることがあります。それを指して言う言葉です。ガソリン:買い。未だはもうなり、もうはまだなり、というが、利食いを考えたくなる値幅、あんこの両建て、売った枚数だけ突っ込み買い・・・・・うーーーん、むつかしい。原油:買いコーン:買い。去年8月からの上昇、そろそろ利食いのタイミングか?

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  • 30Apr
    • 18.04.30 日本はお金だけ出せばよい

      拉致問題:黒幕にとっては、利益にならないから、どうなろうが知ったことじゃない。日本はお金だけ出せばよい。口出し無用それが黒幕の本音です。【相場観】金:売り白金:売りゴム:売りガソリン:売り原油:買いコーン:買い

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  • 27Apr
    • 18.04.26 ソロス

      George Soros: The man, the myth, the legend. If you haven’t heard of him and you’re a trader, you are missing out on a lot of very valuable insight and wisdom. In today’s lesson, we are going to discuss Mr. Soros, learn a little about why he is one of the greatest traders ever and most importantly, discover what he can teach us that will improve our own trading.George Soros is famously known as “The Man Who Broke the Bank of England.” He earned this title in 1992, when he made more than a billion dollars shorting (selling) the pound sterling. He is the co-founder and manager of the Quantum Endowment Fund, an international hedge fund with more than $27 billion in assets under management.Soros began his life under the toughest of conditions; living as a young Jewish boy in Nazi-occupied Hungary in 1944. He then immigrated to England to attend the London School of Economics and moved to the US in 1956 to work as a stock broker. Today, Soros is a passionate investor, philanthropist, and democratic idealist who could teach us a lot about investing, trading and philosophy.So, what can we learn from this master trader that we can directly apply to our own trading? Let’s discuss…Soros’s trading philosophyGeorge Soros is mainly a short-term speculator. He makes massive, highly-leveraged bets on the direction of the financial markets. His famous hedge fund is known for its global macro strategy, a philosophy centered around making massive, one-way bets on the movements of currency rates, commodity prices, stocks, bonds, derivatives and other assets based on macroeconomic analysis.Whilst this is slightly different from my own personal trading approach which relies more heavily on technical analysis and more specifically, price action analysis, there are still many parallels between George Soros’s trading philosophy and mine…What can we learn from George Soros? It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right, and how much you lose when you’re wrong.This first quote from Mr. Soros really drives-home a point I made in my article on why winning percentage doesn’t matter. That point basically is that you can make money trading even if you don’t win the majority of your trades. How? Through proper risk reward. It really is as simple as that.If you don’t know how to set your trades up so that you are making about 2 times your risk or more on your winners, you’re going to have a very, very hard time being profitable over the course of a year. I have discussed in multiple articles how you can make money trading even if you only win 40% of your trades, so, that means you’re losing 60% of the time! If you don’t understand this, then read my article on a caste study of random entry and risk reward. But, basically what you need to understand it that as your reward per trade increases, the number of wins you need to be profitable decreases. The key lies in knowing how to pick the right trades and not over-trading, which is easier said than done, especially if you don’t have the right training. Most of the time we are punished if we go against the trend. Only at inflection points are we rewarded.This quote gels nicely with my overall technical analysis approach. I am primarily a trend-trader and I use price action to find high-probability entries into trades. But, trends end, and they ebb and flow and it’s at key chart levels or major inflection points that trends can reverse dramatically. So, I also look to trade from these major chart levels either by watching for clean price action signals or by getting in at the level on a blind entry. The whole thrust of my approach is that the course of events is indeterminate.In agreement with the teachings of the late-great Mark Douglas, Soros is saying in the above quote that we can never really know for sure what is going to happen in the market. We must trade in-line with this fact, otherwise we will get too emotional about our trades and we will start thinking that we have some special gift for predicting the market.The truth is, by reading price action and knowing how to trade from it, you can develop an effective trading strategy that can get you very high-probability signals to both enter and exit the market. But, there are so many variables that affect a market’s price each day that there truly is an element of randomness to any given trade, that we cannot control. Thus, we must control what we can: our entry price, our risk, our stop loss and target placement and the money we are using to trade with, as well as our own behavior and thinking. Anything outside of these things is totally out of our hands in the market, and the more you try to control the market the more you will lose. Being so critical, I am often considered a contrarian. But I am very cautious about going against the herd; I am liable to be trampled on… Most of the time I am a trend follower, but all the time I am aware that I am a member of the herd and I am on the lookout for inflection points.This is similar to a previous point above, but the key point here is the word contrarian. I have always considered myself a contrarian and I’ve even written an article on the contrarian trading strategy. However, first and foremost, I am a chart-reader, so I always understand what the dominant trend is, as well as the overall story on the chart. As Soros, said, I am liable to get trampled on if I fight a strong trend. So, being contrarian doesn’t always mean trading against the trend, it means you think differently than the herd. I wait for pull backs within the trend, rather than entering when the trend is extended and about to pull back (as most traders do). Being contrarian to me, means I am following the price action and thinking like a professional, always trying to do the opposite of what the amateur is doing. The market is a mathematical hypothesis. The best solutions to it are the elegant and the simple.OK, anyone following me for any length of time knows that the above quote is my “jam”. The best solutions to just about anything in life are simple, trading included. I’ve written many articles on simplicity in trading, but if you haven’t read my Keep It Simple Stupid article, check it out first.Therefore, I love price action so much and why I feel in love with it to begin with; it’s simple, yet effective. Tired of all the confusing trading indicators? Well, guess what? You don’t need them, AND they are hurting you. Don’t ask me how I know this, but let’s just say I’ve been at this for 16 years and the early days were filled with indicators and over-thinking, over-complicating and losing money. Risk taking is painful. Either you are willing to bear the pain yourself or you try to pass it on to others. Anyone who is in a risk-taking business but cannot face the consequences is no good. There is nothing like danger to focus the mind, and I do need the excitement connected with taking risks to think clearly. It is an essential part of my thinking ability. Risk taking is, to me, an essential ingredient in thinking clearly.I love this quote. To me, he is saying that if you don’t enjoy taking risks, specifically financial risks, you aren’t going to survive as a trader. Risk helps focus the mind he says, I am the same way; I feel like I am more keen and aware of the market when I have money at risk. But, there is a fine-line between being focused and being over-involved and over-trading. Risk can make you focused, but you don’t want to spend all your time watching the charts, this can lead to trading addiction.The key point is, you must really love this ‘game’ to thrive at it. Some people just are not mentally cut out to take financial risks and be able to operate effectively in the market with their money on the line. That’s OK, this isn’t for everyone, but me personally? I love it. You probably do too, that’s why you’re reading this ;). If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making anymoney. Good investing is boring.Trading how you should trade to make money is relatively routine and predicable. Meaning, there shouldn’t be huge ups and downs and changes in your trading routine. You should be going through a predictable plan of action each day as you analyze the charts and there should be a huge variance in your trading behavior each day.If you are over-trading and risking too much (gambling) you are experiencing high-highs and low-lows, emotionally speaking (and financially). This can be fun and even thrilling, but you’re doing to end up broke. You don’t want to end up broke so try to make your trading as ‘boring’ as possible. By ‘boring’ it doesn’t have to actually be boring – it just must be non-emotionally-charged. Learn to love the ‘pain’ of routine and that routine will turn into profitable trading habits. Someone much wiser than me once said, “Suffer the pain of discipline or suffer the pain of regret”, let that permeate through your mind for a while. Short term volatility is greatest at turning points and diminishes as a trend becomes established. By the time all the participants have adjusted, the rules of the game will change again.What Soros is saying here is that volatility is greatest when investors without conviction cannot hold their position as the trend begins to change. The early adopters of a trend are the most knowledgeable and have the greatest time horizon, so they can hold through the normal ups and downs that occur in the markets. As the trend gets older, the latecomers (newbies), who are simply chasing the past performance (they FEEL good now that the trend seems cemented), have little conviction in the trend and can be easily shaken out when the original investors begin to take profits and move on. In short, the weaker hands in the market get scared at the slightest move against their position and most of these people naturally tend to enter when the trends are very old and concomitantly about to change course.That high level of volatility is indeed a telltale sign of turning points (both up and down) in the markets. For a price action trader, volatility is our friend and if you know how to read it properly it can be very profitable. I’m only rich because I know when I’m wrong…I basically have survived by recognizingmy mistakes.Finally, just like Soros, I too have survived this long in the market by recognizing my mistakes, admitting I was wrong and fixing the problem. It also means that I recognize when a trade I entered is not right and get out.Trading is not for the person who cannot admit they are not perfect or when they’re wrong. You are going to be wrong a lot in trading, especially in your early / learning days, so get used to it, embrace it and LEARN FROM IT or pay the price.ConclusionGeorge Soros made his initial fortune by taking a contrarian position; he bet that the British Pound would sell-off when it was high and seemed strong and most people were long. Soros was able to do this by being an astute student of the markets and charts. In my article on the false break trading strategy I even include a chart that shows there was an obvious bearish daily fakey sell signal in the GBPUSD the day before it collapsed. I’m willing to bet Soros saw that reversal signal as the ‘final straw’ for him to short. Either way, he was a contrarian at heart and therefore I feel such a strong connection with his approach.When you learn to read and trade from the natural price action on the charts, you inevitably start thinking more like a contrarian and less like a herd-follower. You stop being afraid because the chart starts making more sense to you. Fear comes from lack of knowledge, from not understanding that which we are afraid of, and you certainly cannot be good at something if you fear it. You can eliminate your trading fear by gaining more knowledge and learning to trade price action. If there is one thing we can say to summarize George Soros’s trading success, it’s that he developed his trading abilities so acutely that he had no-fear of taking any trade, and we can see the pay-off of such an ability in his famous billion-dollar win shorting the British pound.

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