トレンドフォロアーの合言葉 予想はよそう何故？ 外れるから。誰にも未来のことはわからないから。それでも、kappaは予測する、何故？シナリオを描くため。 ここを超えて高くなれば、さらに上昇するだろう、どこまで？ 捕らぬ狸の皮算用、売り転換するまで。 行き過ぎと判断できるところまで。 相場に行き過ぎは、よくあること。レンジ相場は、様子見。 下がれば売り。レンジ相場は逆張り。どちらが有効？？？トレンドは何故継続する？ 物理の法則に、慣性の法則というものがあるそうな。 上がっているものはどこまでも上がる、 下がっているものはどこまでも下がる、 邪魔する者が現れるまで。トレンドも似たようなもの。【kappaの予測】NYダウは右肩上がりに上がるように設計されている。ただし行き過ぎを修正するために、暴落が必ず発生する。株価は上がらなければ困る筋がある。今、アメリカでは不動産バブルの種がまかれている。これが顕在化するのに、数年かかるだろう、それまでは株は押し目買い有利だろう。一つの指標、先行指標は、長期金利と短期金利の、金利差が逆転するまでは買い安心感がある。逆転したら、手放すとき。日本株は、保ち合い継続 ・・・前の高値を超えていないから。株価が上がらないのは、財務省の陰謀日本国民を貧乏にする政策を財務省主導で推し進めているから。不動産バブルの時、金持ちが回転を利かせて、ぼろもうけした、という僻みを受けてそれなら、金融引き締めをして懲らしめてやろう、という不遜な考えを持ったことが事の始まり。ソフトランディングをすべきところを急激に舵を切りすぎて、転覆した。財政健全化政策も、日本を困窮させる政策である。先行事例として、ギリシャがある。ギリシャの様になってよいのならそれもよかろう。kappaは反対であるが。アメリカは、減税・インフラ政策で好景気らしいが、新卒は職に就けない状況だとか。彼ら・彼女らは奨学金を借り入れし、借金苦になっているとか。彼らにお金を貸し付けて、不動産を持たせて、部分的に部屋が死してそのお金を返済に回す、奨学金の高金利を不動産の低金利で借り換えさせ、新たな不動産バブルを作る・・・・・銀行と不動産業界の陰謀が始まっている。この問題が、表面化するまでは、買い有利だろう。バブル形成に、2～4年、それが問題視されるまでに1～2年、2～3年ぐらいは大丈夫だろう。長短金利差にも注意を払いながらの、株、NYダウの売買、その時、貴金属も売りに転じるだろう。前のリーマンショック・・・・・金融危機と同じ構造になっていることに注目。【相場観】金：売り。新規売り直し。白金：売り。突っ込み買いを暗示。ゴム：買いガソリン：売り。原油：売り。戻り売り、新規に売ってみた。コーン：売り。安値更新していない、同じゾーンにいるので、買い転換近し、打診買いも面白い。
平均足単独では騙しが多い・・・保ち合いに弱い。平均足とMACDの組み合わせ平均足と移動平均線の組み合わせ平均足とRSIのくみあわせ平均足とパラボリック平均足と一目等々あるが、・・・・ 平均足とRSIの組み合わせがよさそうです。フィルターにRSIを用いることで、仕掛けがかなり減ります。ということはロスカットが減る・・・・儲けやすいということにつながります。大相場をとるということで、小次郎講師の、 3つの大循環分析の組み合わせも面白そうです。但し、相場に絶対はないので、 ロスカットルール（名前が気に入らない・・・・手仕舞いルール）をしっかり決めてからの、運用になります。
強い人と競争しないこと。勝つとわかっているときだけ、戦うこと。相場でいえば、大底確認、上げ始めを、現受け覚悟の買い。ナンピンの買い下がりはしない方針、資金がいっぱいある人は、あくまで現物を購入するつもりでの丸代金を持っての買い下がり。数年来の高値で、部分的に売り、現物渡しの売りです。これなら破産はしないでしょうし、利益も出るでしょう。金スポットの、現受け覚悟の買い、これは無期限に近いので有効でしょう。現物を受けることのできる会社がおすすめです。 何故、上場来安値を更新したらどうする？ その前に空売り、でリスクヘッジも考えましょう。このとき現物を持っていると安心感があります。 また、現物を持っていると、子供に譲れますから。【相場観】金：売り白金：売りゴム：売り。安値更新していないので、売り注文成立していないが、・・・ガソリン；買い。危険な考え、値ごろ売り、原油：買い。コーン：買い
【相場観】金：買い白金：売りゴム：売りガソリン：買い原油：買いコーン：売りオイル系；拭き値売りのタイミングか？Why Two Different Traders Can See The Same Chart Very DifferentlyA curious fact of trading is that you can take two different traders and give them the exact same chart and even the same trading pattern, and you will end up with very different results. With everything else being equal like knowledge, trading experience and access to information, why do two different traders behave so differently when they are looking at the exact same market data?I started thinking about this when my friend and I had been discussing a chart of a market we both had open trades on. At that time the market was moving against both of us quite severely and it struck me as odd that we had very different views even though we had the same trade on and the same thing was happening. I had concluded it was probably due to the fact one of us had a much larger position than the other, and one of us was clearly far less attached to the trade/chart because they had much less to lose and less skin in the game.This is of course just one of the possible reasons we saw this trade and the chart of this market very differently; in fact, there is a plethora of reasons we could have both reached different conclusions and I wanted to write a lesson and bring these factors into the spotlight. You may read these points and start nodding your head and have one of those “aha” moments, and hopefully this gets you thinking more about the fact that multiple perspectives can exist at the same time in the market, i.e., yours and your opponents (those on the other side of your trade). Thinking about these different perspectives and WHY they might exist will only work to make you a better trader.Over-committedpositionIt is my belief that the more money a trader risks on a trade relative to their overall net worth, the more emotionally invested in that trade they will be. It seems like commonsense perhaps, but the implications of this are quite profound…When you become over-committed to a trade or to an investment, you are FAR more likely to make a mistake. For this reason, two traders can literally be in the exact same trade, but if one has risked a much higher percentage of their net worth, they are most likely going to see the chart much differently and react to it much differently, than the trader who has risked a ‘safer’ amount.The take-away point of this, is that the more money you have at risk, the more emotionally-charged you will be at every up and down tick of that chart. When you are very emotional about a position (usually due to being over-committed, money-wise) you are more likely to see a short-term reversal in that position as an impending market correct that may go WELL past your entry point, causing you to lose money. So, what do you? Inevitably, when faced with this powerful emotion of FEAR, you will exit that trade for probably either a very small gain relative to what you had (since you’re exiting as the market is coming back toward your entry) or you will exit near breakeven. Granted, this is still much better than a loss, but it can be very painful and mess with your trading mindset, leading to more mistakes.To the trader who wasn’t over-committed, that same correction may have been viewed differently; as a simple market correction. That trader may have held the trade and now is well into the money as the chart turned around just as the previous trader bailed.This is really just one of many examples of how risking too much or being over-committed to a position can cause you to panic and self-sabotage your trades.To reiterate my point; two traders, one has risked way too much, the other has risked a much smaller amount, the one who risks too much will almost always panic and mess up the trade, the one who didn’t risk too much is more likely to have a favorably trading result.Bias of no position or positionSimply by being in a position, by having ‘skin in the game’ so to speak, you may view the chart differently than a trader who has not taken a position in that market. Even if you are staying within your per-trade risk parameters and following your trading plan to the T, you are going to be at least slightly influenced by the fact that you have your hard-earned money on the line and could potentially lose it. This is essentially why trading is not easy and it’s not for the weak minded or easily shaken personality.It’s a curious fact that when you are demo-trading with paper-money, you are probably going to get better results than when you trade live. The reason is, it’s paper-money, not real money. The key to trading success truly is trying to forget about the money and trading the markets as if it’s all a game and the money is just a way of keeping score, a tally of points, so to speak. The only way to effectively do this is to NOT be over-committed. You have to basically try to see the chart as if you have no position in the market, even if you do.Recency bias based on trade outcomesTwo traders, trading the same setup on the same chart may see that chart differently due to something called recency bias. Recency bias means you have a bias or an opinion / feeling about something due to an experience you had recently with that same or similar thing. So, trader A may have seen this ‘same’ scenario before and had a trade on and lost money, whereas trader B may have made money on market conditions similar to what they’re seeing now.As stated in an article in USnews & World Report titled 7 Behavioral Biases that May Hurt Your Investments: It’s no secret that retail investors tend to chase investment performance, often piling into an asset class just as it is peaking and about to reverse lower. Because the investment has been climbing higher recently, investors believe that will remain the case.As humans, we are all influenced by recent events more heavily than past ones, it’s just part of being human. This can be good and bad in trading. Market conditions that are trending strongly lend to recency bias being beneficial; because if you keep getting in the trend on pullbacks you’ll likely keep making money. However, when the trend changes and the market starts moving sideways, you are likely going to get chopped up if you don’t quickly read the price action and figure out the conditions are changing.Interestingly, there are many different personality biases that can affect how any individual sees the market.Too attached to the market or to the initial viewPeople can become emotionally attached to charts / certain markets or just to their initial view on a chart for a variety of reasons, not only from being over-committed financially.Take a trader who has researched a certain market extensively and studied the chart a lot, they are probably going to become very attached to a view once they take one. They will feel their time spent studying XYZ market has to have been worth something and they can’t bear to think the market isn’t doing what they want. This causes them to look for news articles and web stories that support their view on the chart (after all, you can find any opinion on anything online). This is essentially letting arrogance and ego dictate your trading behavior. You can become over-attached to a chart simply because you don’t want to believe you are wrong or that all your research has been for naught.This is essentially what is called the over-confidence bias. This is caused by spending too much time studying a market and ‘convincing’ yourself you are right about what will happen next. Traders also get over-confident after a winning trade because they tend to become overly-optimistic about their recent decision and attribute too much of the win to something they did rather than just a statistical occurrence of their edge playing out.To learn more about different behavior biases, check out this article from internationalbanker.com: Why Biases Lead to Irrational Investment Decisions, and How to Fight BackAnother trader who maybe doesn’t have this mental hurdle becuase they haven’t done the research and the study is arguably at an advantage to the trader above. When you spend less time on something you are naturally more neutral and less committed to it. This gives a fresh perspective and more importantly, a more objective one.In trading, objectivity is key and this is why I am generally against trading the news or paying too close attention to fundamental data. Beyond learning to trade price action and understanding basic trading terminology, there is no real advantage to increasing amounts market research, in fact, it may actually hurt you because of what we have just discussed.Indicators vs. clean chartsOne obvious reason two traders will view the same chart differently is indicators. Some traders like to plaster their charts in technical analysis indicators that literally make the charts look like a piece of modern abstract art.The trader who uses clean, simple price action charts without indicators plastered all over them, will inevitably have a different perspective on the same market; a clearer and more accurate one.Trend follower vs contrarianSimilar to the above point, there is truth that two traders who have historically made money trading the markets different ways, are going to see the same chart differently. For example…Trader A may see a chart going up, but because he is a natural contrarian (wants to trade opposite to near-term momentum) he wants to short into the strength, ideally at a key level, because he has made money doing this before (recency bias). He hates trading with the herd.Trader B may see that same chart going up and he is looking to go long! Because he too has made money doing this. He has traded trends and made good money. He can’t ever seem to go against the herd.Neither approach is necessarily right or wrong; there are multiple ways to skin a fish, so to speak. Whilst it is more dangerous to trade against near-term trends, some traders just have a knack at fading the market, or picking the places the market will reverse (contrarians). However, for most traders, sticking with the trend is the best bet.The point is that each person is going to see the exact same chart, setup, pattern in the market a little bit differently and for a variety of reasons discussed above, react differently to the same market movement.ConclusionTwo traders can indeed see the same chart differently and more often than not they will get different results from the exact same trading setup on the exact same chart. The common unifier in trading is the price action on the chart, it really is the great equalizer. The price action takes into account ALL variables affecting a market and that have affected it in the past and displays it to you in a relatively easy to read clue-packed ‘portrait’. Learning to read the price action is how you can eliminate or greatly reduce most of the variables in the markets that confuse and complicate the trading process for most.Most of the reason two traders see the same chart differently is due to lack of discipline. Some traders chronically risk too much per trade, which obviously greatly influences their perception of what a market is doing and what it might do next. Whilst I can teach you the importance of discipline and explain to you why you need it, I cannot force you to actually get and stay disciplined in your day-to-day trading routine. I can show you the door to trading success via my trading courses and I can lead you to the proper path, but I cannot make the journey for you, that is up to you. So, what you have to decide next is how are you going to view the same charts everyone else is looking at? Will you view them through emotionally-charged eyes and indicator-riddled screens, or will you view them through calm, collected eyes with smooth, clean charts? That is also up to you…
【相場観】金：売り白金：買いゴム：買いガソリン：買い原油：買いコーン：買いThe Psychological Advantages of Set and Forget Trading RegimesSet and forget trading is a phrase that I coined several years back in an article I wrote on the topic. It’s a trading approach that works if you follow it, to put it simply. For this reason, I write about it often, and those of you who have been following me for some time no doubt understand the main benefits of the set and forget trading approach.However, in today’s lesson, I want to focus on the psychological aspects and benefits of the set and forget approach and why it will help your trading performance, based on my personal experiences.We get many members who email us regularly with success stories after they have adopted the set and forget approach. Hopefully, more of you will start trialing this concept because there is nothing that makes me happier than hearing my students’ success stories.As you may already know from some of my other articles on this topic, set and forget trading works partially because of the way it helps you to systemize the entry, stop and target of your trades. By allowing the edge to play out uninterrupted, without you fiddling with it for arbitrary reasons, your long-term trading performance will improve simply as a ‘side-effect’.However, there are also some very important mental benefits of set and forget trading which I don’t often discuss.In this lesson,I want to focus on the psychological benefits of set and forget trading to help more of you make the mental transition to this style of trading. By committing to the trade completely before you even place it, it means you’re identifying the trade, placing the orders and walking away with very little monitoring. It also means being at peace and avoiding the emotional ups and downs that come with watching your trades as they are live. It means walking away and letting the market ‘do the work’ whilst you go do something more productive or fun. It means removing yourself from the temptations of chart-watching and getting influenced by chart whipsaws from news releases, short-term volatility and so on. In short, it means setting and forgetting!By understanding the mental advantages of set and forget trading,perhaps you will gain a deeper understanding of its power and begin trading this way sooner.Mental advantages…1. Significantly Reduce Stress & Emotional Ups & DownsTrading can be as stressful or as stress-free as you want it to be, it all depends on what you do. If you sit there staring at the charts all night when you should be asleep, you are doing to drive-up your body’s stress response and your cortisol (stress hormone) levels will sky-rocket both from the lack of sleep and from over-thinking about your trades.Now, as if the stress wasn’t bad enough, it’s going to get worse. You’re also going to hurt your trading performance by doing what I described above, this will work to further increase your stress levels. Eventually, you will be tired, angry, frustrated, on the verge of tears and left with an empty trading account.By employing my set and forget trading approach, you can eliminate all this stress, worry and losing! Show me a set and forget trader and I will show you a stress-free trader who is on the path to trading success. There have been studies done on investors / traders and their trading performance in relation to their trading frequency, and they always show that less-involved traders do better over the long-run. Similarly, even though trading is a male-dominated arena, when women do step into it they tend to do much better on average than men. Why? Simple; they do not over-trade as much and they do not risk too much like many men do. The reason has to do with men having higher testosterone levels (a hormone that makes men take more risks and feel over-confident, things that can hurt you in trading). I have an article in which I discuss this female vs. male trading phenomena more in-depth, check it out: What is The Weakest Link in Your Trading? Suffice it to say, us men are not always right, and we can and should learn from women sometimes and trading seems to be one area where we can benefit from their seemingly innate ability to set and forget their trades.2. Help Cure Your Obsessive Chart-WatchingHave you ever heard of positive reinforcement? It’s when you get a reward from doing the right thing this will then reinforce whatever the ‘right thing’ was that you did, so that hopefully you keep doing it. It works on kids and it can work on adults too, especially in trading.When you watch charts all the time, you are probably going to lose money, so the chart-watching is a negative behavior. The tricky part here is that the act of chart-watching can feel very good while you’re doing it (dopamine – the chemical in your brain that gives you the rush you get from the ‘hope’ of making money), so you are essentially getting a mental reward from committing a negative behavior and you are reinforcing a negative behavior by continuing to do this. Therefore, traders get stuck in an addictive cycle of watching charts, making the same mistakes over and over and losing money.But, YOU CAN STOP THIS and YOU CAN REVERSE IT! By utilizing set and forget trading you can literally begin to reinforce positive behavior rather than negative. This will work like a positive feedback loop in which the improved performance you see from behaving properly in the markets works to make you want to continue that positive behavior. It’s no different than someone who sticks to a regime of exercise over a period of months; soon enough the endorphins and improved strength and energy-levels begin to reinforce the behavior of working out consistently. Yes, in the beginning it may seem like a ‘boring’ chore you don’t want to do and it may even hurt a little, but rest assured, that pain is good for you.Setting and forgetting your trades is truly the key to eliminating almost every negative trading behavior that traders have. You need to implement this sooner than later.A man smarter than me once said; “Suffer the pain of discipline or suffer the pain of regret”. That means, pay your dues, be disciplined now and it will pay off later, or you can continue to act lazy and undisciplined and you will suffer the pain of regret later.3. Sleep at Night – Know What You Stand to Lose or MakeSleep is critical to all physical and mental process in the human body. There are thousands of studies on this. I can tell you for a 100% iron-clad fact that IF you are losing sleep from watching charts and worrying about losing too much or not winning enough, you are hurting your trading performance and you are starting down the road to reinforcing negative trading habits as we discussed in point 2.When you are using set and forget trading, your stop loss and profit targets are pre-defined, so you know what you stand to lose and what you stand to win on any given trade. I can tell you from experience, this makes it a lot easier to get and stay asleep at night so don’t under-estimate this benefit!This brings up another point; when you know what you stand to lose or win on a trade it goes a long way towards eliminating greedy behavior. Greed is a huge reason traders fail. It causes them to hold trades too long whether the trade is moving in their favor or against them. How many times have you been in a big winning trade and you didn’t take the profit because you had no profit target or because you moved your profit target from its initial setting? This is greed. Being greedy inevitably causes traders to end up with no money.Bulls make money, bears make money, Pigs? Pigs get slaughtered! That is one of the oldest Wall Street sayings and it rings louder than perhaps any other, still to this day.When you set a profit target and stick to it, you aren’t being greedy, so over-time you should end up making money. When you set a stop loss and stick to it, you can pre-define your risk to a dollar amount you’re mentally OK with (potentially) losing. When you adjust your risk properly and you know what you can lose, you should have no problem setting your trade and walking away.Disclaimer: There is never a 100% certain outcome for any trade and losses can sometimes exceed stop losses due to slippage.4. Exercise the Mental Muscles of Routine & DisciplineWhen you make the commitment to start set and forget trading, you are kicking off a process that is self-reinforcing and will continue to strengthen the longer you use it. The power of routine and discipline, of repeating an effective system or process and staying accountable to THAT, will help you accelerate your development of the proper trading habits.Once you have the proper trading habits in place you will see improved trading performance which gives rise to a huge surge of trading confidence in both yourself and what you’re doing. This reinforces the routine you started with and it all stems from committing to the set and forget trading approach.Here is what this looks like in a diagram. Notice that set and forget is in the center, because it really all starts with that idea – once you commit you will quickly figure out the proper trading routine from the help of my articles and trading courses, then it really starts to almost ‘take care of itself’ as long as you stay disciplined and stick to the set and forget plan.The set and forget ‘wheel’ of trading success:5. Confidence Through Achieving Better Trading ResultsConfidence in business, trading or even in your personal life is something that truly is so important has no dollar value; it is invaluable. Confidence breeds more confidence and it works to reinforce those positive trading habits we discussed earlier. By trading properly not only are you reinforcing positive trading habits but you’re breeding confidence in yourself and your ability to stick to a plan, this confidence helps you stick to what was working. It’s all a positive feedback loop as I said before.Confidence is spawned by the momentum of winning trades or at the very least, having better trading experiences and having more control over the capital in your account; the strategic planning that set and forget allows, that results in improved results.It’s not going to happen all at once, but over time, when you master this style of trading, you will start to feel more in control because you’re controlling the things you can and not trying to control the things you can’t (the market’s movement is uncontrollable).Being more confident will spawn more motivation to continue mastering the act of finding the trade and placing the trade. It’s just like the earlier example I gave of exercise; when you get over the initial ‘pain’ of it or the initial ‘I don’t want to do this feeling’ and you start seeing positive results, it’s going to inject you with a whole boat-load of motivation and confidence that will work to fuel your on-going progress and quest for being the best. This will give you the willpower and discipline you need to get make it as a trader.ConclusionI focus on the set and forget approach and 95% of the time I will resign to the fact I’m about to lose XYZ or make XYZ on a trade; this works to eliminate the potential of making emotional mistakes. The expectancy of my trading method combined with the set and forget money management approach has helped me, as well as many of my studentsimprove their trading.It’s not an exact science, and of course there will be times trades are adjusted and there are times that no amount of mechanical money management can override the natural human emotion of trading, but we are not after perfection, we are after training and exercising the mind to be able to let go of the need to control the outcomes and control the market, after all the market is going to do what it’s going to do with or without us watching it or trading it.All we can is control ourselves and our own behaviors in the market and that is what set and forget trading is all about.