[Trend] in 2014 the most promising industry investors and most Nike Lunar Haze SnubLooking back on 2013, the ups and downs of the global economy seems to have finally found a foothold. Trends across the US 'fiscal cliff' after the establishment of the medium-term economic upward, QE gradually withdraw, driven by strong economic recovery in the dollar; the euro area countries reached an agreement with the country's hard-hit relief, to avoid the spread of the crisis, in 2013 two, Third consecutive quarter of positive GDP growth, indicating that the euro zone has passed the worst phase, began back to life; in Japan, under 'abenomics' stimulus, depreciated yen and promote economic growth. Therefore, Outlook 2014, the global economic recovery is expected to become a common market. This article comes from the 'New Fortune' magazine, author Chenyong Qian, he analyzed the economic trend in 2014 pre-sentence, and to select the most promising and were left out of the industry. i recommend to you the dark horse this article entrepreneurs, hoping to prepare the 2014 business friends for reference. US Department of Commerce released the latest data show that three quarters of 2013. US real GDP annualized quarter rate of 4.1%, far exceeding market expectations, the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2011, which the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the prospects for the US economy is expected, and said the world economic situation in 2014 will be more certainty. Hai Tong Securities expects 2014 global GDP growth of 2.5% from 2013 up to 2014 of 3.3%, while it is the main driving force behind the steady recovery of the US economy. CITIC Securities believes that economic recovery in Europe will drive the global economic recession, and its role in boosting trade demand growth will help to improve the external demand in emerging economies, ASEAN countries will benefit from the economic recovery in Europe and America; but on the part of emerging markets , due to the US QE exit and the negative impact of a stronger dollar led to weaker commodity prices, the economy will once again under attack, India, Indonesia and Thailand will be even greater impact, while Brazil, Russia and other resource-based countries as the dollar strong lead to weaker commodity prices, affecting its revenue and economic recovery. After QE era, Haitong Securities is expected, since differentiation prospects for recovery, the lever on the environment and capital flows, countries of the monetary policy in 2014 will begin to appear decoupling, synchronization cycle policy of central banks came to an end. Central banks of the 'split' will in the future market trends, capital flows, and even risk distribution will be the emergence of new variables. Steady growth, is expected to push reform in the global economic recovery in 2014, China will no longer pursue economic growth alone, in the steady growth while promoting economic reform, will be the main theme of the next few years. China last round of large-scale economic reforms launched in 1998, or the housing market as well as state-owned enterprise reform, the reform push plus the dividends of globalization accession to the WTO, China's economy bottomed out in 1999 after the beginning of the rapid rise, and thereafter 10 It maintained a double-digit annual growth during the year. However, after the 2008 financial crisis, China's economic growth gradually declined dominant force. Old cycle turn of the eighth session of the Third Plenum was held in 2013 to 2014 and over the next few years China's economic development that set the tone for reform. In the pattern of reform, in 2014 China's economy will bid farewell to high growth. Looking to 2014, steady growth has become the consensus of all research institutions, major broker on the 2014 GDP growth forecast of 7.2% between the basic 7.8%, many institutional investors point of view also point 7.33%, slightly lower than in 2013 7.7%, 7.5% and 7.8% level in the first three quarters. SW believes that the future pattern of China's economy is to hold the bottom line, accelerate the transformation of economic growth and hope in the TFP (TFP). Guotai Junan Securities, said the growth target downward adjustment in the more low, meaning that the greater the driving force transformation. In the context of increasing efforts to promote reform, economic growth in 2014 downward trend has not changed, in 2014 GDP growth of 7.5%, and the government will be more concerned about the quality of economic growth rather than the total growth. UBS Securities in 2014 for China's economic trend is relatively optimistic, which represents 2014 Chinese primary goal of macroeconomic policy is to ensure stable economic growth while promoting reform, and to benefit from improved external demand and domestic demand is basically stable, China's GDP in 2014 growth will rebound slightly to 7.8%. CICC believes that by 2014 China will show steady growth, rising consumer signs, and slowing economic growth for three years will also be stabilized. More optimistic estimate is that because of tight macroeconomic policy down the contribution level of investment, technology effect since the second half of 2012 as the anti-corruption related consumption growth caused by the impact of one-time loss, coupled with the impact of structural reforms , consumption growth will increase, and exceeded investment has become the biggest driver of growth. Chinese long-term economic reform would be positive, but short-term pains are inevitable. CITIC Securities is also optimistic about the consumer-driven economy, that the main driving force of GDP growth in 2014 from consumption and capital formation, consumption will boost GDP growth of 3.8%, bringing capital formation by 3.6% growth. First half of the economy affected by tight liquidity and other factors, lower growth in the second half in place with the gradual reform measures, the economy rebounded, annual GDP growth is projected at 7.5 percent, and in 2013 was essentially flat. Prospects for reform, CITIC Securities believes that various reforms have greatly improved the potential growth of the economy, the domestic reform is expected to increase the potential GDP growth rate of 1-2 percent. For 2014, investment and consumption stimulating effect on the economy, Haitong Securities took a different view, that because of rising interest rates to curb investment spending, the need or the year 2014 is still the biggest constraint of economic stabilization. Haitong Securities, said the third quarter of 2013. The main drivers of economic rebound from excessive investment, but because the government control of the currency led to decline in money supply, money supply and demand and interest rates soaring, which means that investment and consumption in 2014 will continue to be suppressed, especially serious real estate bubble sales will face downside risks. Thus, the economy is still downward trend. If the government can take advantage of lower economic growth target, you do not need to stimulate investment, interest rates can be reduced, the transformation industry will receive funding in the second half of 2014 is expected low stabilized, then embarked on the transition road. Monetary policy guidance to the big printing leveraged by the world as compared with the dollar bill, the issue of excessive financial risk arising from the yuan has crossed the cordon. For significantly improved leverage, the recent government position will implement a more prudent monetary and credit policy, thus bringing down the rate increase leverage. Hai Tong Securities pointed out that the economy of China rely on monetary expansion mode greatly increases the financial risk, M2 / GDP over 200% of total bank assets / GDP over 260%, so the government had to tighten monetary policy, starting from the second quarter of 2013, The central bank has continued tight monetary policy, thereby Forced deleveraging of financial institutions. UBS Securities believes that the central bank will try to keep the inter-bank market liquidity, 'tight balance' to maintain a relatively high money Air Jordan 1 market interest rates, and to ensure that new loans are not higher than 2013 levels, and the government may strengthen the interbank Regulated business and other 'shadow banking' activities. China Merchants Securities, said in June 2013, 'money shortage' The fundamental problem is that the incident exposed the lack of central bank and other regulators shadow banking control and means of interbank business as 'shadow banking' in the wildest part of the development will be more to stringent regulation, which have a profound impact on the money supply, liquidity and so on. With the strengthening of supervision of interbank business, interbank business of money creation channels are blocked, may have in 2014 a strong impact on liquidity, M2 growth fell further expected annual growth rate of 12.5%. At the same time, monetary policy is limited due to space, so that interest rates and RRR adjustment tool has Air Jordan 9 Retro become more difficult in 2014, expect the central bank will continue to use a combination of open market operations, short-term liquidity loans adjusting tool and standing facilitation tool to strengthen the market interest rate guidance. CPI continued to moderate in 2011 experienced high inflation, modest gains after bottoming out in 2012 and 2013 more than a month of, SW expects inflationary pressure is not 2014, CPI trend mainly depends on the base effect and Food price volatility. For 2014, inflation, UBS Securities believes that benefited grain harvest and mild weather conditions, food prices are expected to remain stable period, but a low base in 2014 could raise food and overall inflation. At the same time, economic growth picked up, rising house prices and service costs as well as the planned energy and utility price adjustments may result in the overall CPI annual high, rising from 2.7% in 2013 to 3.5%. On the other hand, needs to improve, stabilize commodity prices ease deflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector, coupled with the base effect, the 2014 PPI is expected to turn positive. Hai Tong Securities believes that the current inflation is still at the stage of building top, inflation will remain stable in 2014, mainly for two reasons. First, from a macro trend, in 2014 the economy is still downward trend, while in 2013 manufacturing investment to expand production capacity, and therefore the level of supply and demand driven PPI and core CPI is limited; the second is the micro level, adequate food supply, inventory stable, exit the QE will be represented by crude oil commodity prices bring downward pressure on inflation is difficult to quickly rise, it is expected that 2014 will be comparable to the level of CPI in 2013, was 2.6%. Investment Opportunities reform era in 2014 for A-share market trends, major brokerage firms and institutional investors tend more optimistic that the trading range in 2014, the Shanghai index is between 1977-2605 points. Institutional investors in 2014 the top ten most promising sectors are pharmaceuticals, TMT, environmental, consumer, financial, food and beverage, real estate, new energy, industry and agriculture. Among them, the medicine is to get 39.79 percent of institutional investors, while the identity of TMT, environmental, consumer and finance are more than 18% (Figure 1). Overall revenue of the pharmaceutical industry in the A-share market is not the highest, but two consecutive years in the 'new wealth,' the survey most institutional investors optimistic, but get overwhelmed by nearly forty percent of institutional investors, one reason Perhaps that economic fluctuations in the pharmaceutical industry have invested when defense property, which is equally optimistic about the root cause of many brokerage firms where the pharmaceutical sector. Shenyin that the pharmaceutical industry will continue substantial long-term investment returns, the industry growth trend intact. After the adjusted third quarter 2013, the pharmaceutical industry stocks adjustment is large, the industry gradually differentiation, will usher in a strategic sector configuration time. UBS is also optimistic about the sector's trend, that the benefit of private capital into the health care and medical device sector, industry long-term climate change, the future direction of health care reform is the public health back 'guarantee basic', and high-end medical, and some specialist areas , promising medical services and medical device sectors. In telecommunications, media and technology combination TMT industry in the stock market in the first half of 2013. abnormal amazing, and one of the mobile Internet, mobile games and other sections of the stock price is Lianfan several times. Although the industry is divided somewhat vague concept, but the next few years it is going to be one of the biggest hot spot market investments. 31.23% institutional investors choose to continue to be optimistic in 2014, the industry's performance. Haitong electronic, media, computer, communications and consumer electronics industries unified five attributed TMT, in addition to one of the media industry to give a 'neutral' recommendation, but on the other four industries were given the 'overweight' recommendation. It is optimistic about the Apple and Google leading the mobile Internet technology innovation sub-2.0 times; that the mobile payment industrial chain will Nike Shoes erupt in 2014, while taking into account the 4G licenses have not yet brought about the release of positive factors such as the TMT 2014 is still worth expectations. However, it is somewhat surprising that, TMT industry in 2014 ranked second in the most promising industry, but also in 2014 was named the fourth most are not optimistic about the industry. Perhaps some investors perceived hot TMT Although the outlook remains attractive, but its inherent investment risk should not be underestimated. The same has been the favorite of the environmental protection industry, gained 23.72% institutional investors optimistic. CITIC Securities, said the environmental protection sector accumulated excess return of 60.3% since 2010, continuing the introduction of the policy is an important factor in active plate. CITIC Securities believes that the Third Plenary Session 'decision' indicates the depth and breadth of the ecological impact of reforms on the environmental protection industry brings are beyond past policies, while listed companies based on financial, resource and platform advantages to implement lateral expansion, opening up new opportunities in related fields, the vertical integration of the industry chain will be an inevitable trend, the industry concentration and competition is expected to be enhanced quality, and suggested that based on the environmental protection industry to grasp the investment opportunities arising from mergers and acquisitions under the premise of a margin of safety. In 2013 the new institutional investors are not optimistic about the industry one of Air Jordan 5 Retro the most, in addition to people 'love to hate' the TMT, the steel industry topped the list, more than 39% of institutional investors believe that in 2013 bleak steel industry in 2014 is difficult to obtain investment opportunities. Followed by coal and non-ferrous metal industry, were bearish 24.11% and 12.91% of the institutional investors (Figure 2). It is worth mentioning that the top three industries, including building materials and ranked by the machinery industry, are the property of strong cyclical industry, these traditional industries in economic transition are facing overcapacity, decline in profitability and debt burden high prices and other issues. Remove TMT, the other seven industries on the list, in 2013 the overall stock market performance are not satisfactory, steel, coal, non-ferrous metals throughout the year (as of December 24, 2013) in the secondary industry index SW declines of -18.30% - 40.38% and -33.98%, coal is the worst performing stock market sectors throughout the year. Prospects for the coal industry in 2014, investment securities that economic growth fell sharply due to the rapid adjustment of the first wave of the coal industry Kids Nike Trainers Air Jordan 13 Retro tends to end, but the future remain low GDP growth, adjusting the economic structure will in turn curb demand for coal again . Although the book value of the coal industry repeatedly record low valuation is not high, but the lack of attractiveness of the market, it is difficult now expected upward.