a letter from macro fund

i have asked my friend working at macro fund on how he views on currencies of emerging countries such as Iceland or Indonesia and the following is his reply.

Not really
Dollar weakness most likely. Am thinking big risk aversion dollar rally is over. May short dollar
What do you think?

Eventually, this doesn't seem a big issue for them. But more importantly, he is about to start short DOLLAR!!

I responded "i would agree but timing should not be now. As long as dollar remains a primary currency used for settlement, we need a catalyst for the dollar to collapse. Looking back the global depression era back in 1930s, US Treasuries started selling off in 9 months after a collapse in corporate bonds. And this collapse in corporate bonds took place in 12 months after stock market's sell off.

This is interesting, for this time, corporate bonds started heading south in 11months after a weakness in stock market. (similar to 12 months) If history repeats, we might see a collapse in US Treasuries around Jun-Jul next year..... I sense this should become a good timing to short USD.....

Having said that, I would agree to BUY Yen against USD. And Euro particularly with targeting 100.