マクロファンドからの手紙

前、お話したのだがNYのでっかいマクロファンドで働いてて、この業界で今まであった中でも頭の良い奴３本の１人に入るが、相場は当たらないはずだったC○RILのコメント第２弾。前回のものを振り返ってみて欲しいのであるが、彼はCOMMODITYの下げをぴったり当てている！ちなみに、彼はハーバード卒のフランス人。現在の日本のマーケットのCOMMODITY関連については以前からしつこくいっていたHFの解約の影響が強いと思うのであるが。。これまで、待っていた人については今日第１弾の買いを入れてみるのも悪くはないと個人的には思う。Inpex、物産、商事、三井鉱山。とはいえ、以下がC○RILのコメント。 (my part) your view on commodities has turned out to be completely correct. I have been such a CHICKEN that I couldn't short those with 7-9x of PER. Are you still bearish on commodities? also, some technical guys say even nasdaq, which had performed quite well in a relative sense, has broken down 13 and 26 weeks moving average and this implies all the global indicies will see new lows either in Sep or Oct. Any sense on the US equities? (C○RIL) I am only climbing out of the hole I dug for myself in q1! am still bearish on commodities because of global synchronized slowdown and demand destruction. i think they are all going back to marginal cost(75-80 for oil). I think late cycle capital goods and machinery are next. US equities, I think, made their low in July. Lower oil, lower inflation, potentially lower rates in US should gibe you multiple expansion expansion but EPS still need to get revised down so you've got a low, some rally potential but the rally is capped(maybe even some kind og retest) until economy and earnings bottom(q4 maybe q1). so I only have moderate exposure.