" the wind blows as it pleases",
On a sunny day, it is easy to imagine how the sun will shine on the solar panels.
However, in the case of wind, it seems to blow at will and is difficult to imagine.
However, in the case of wind, it seems to blow at will, making it difficult to imagine. Since it is a natural flow of the atmosphere, it is affected by the weather.
There must be a relationship between cause and effect.
If the wind blows, the bucket shop will make money.
The process is so complicated that even AI cannot calculate it.
Even AI can't calculate it.
Perhaps even the Fugaku (supercomputer) will not be able to predict it.
This is where Fermi estimation comes into play.
(Fermi estimation is the process of estimating an elusive quantity, which is difficult to actually investigate, by reasoning logically based on a number of clues and making a rough estimate in a short time.
Against this whimsical wind
How do we find these clues?
For example, can we predict the output of a wind turbine for one year from the rated output of the wind turbine?
If you look on the Internet, you will find "How Wind Power Works.
"A single wind turbine generator at Wind Farm Hamada (Shimane Prefecture), with a rated output capacity of 1.67 MW, could generate about 14.63 million kWh of electricity per year if it operated at full capacity for one year.
"
One year is 365x24=8760 hours, 1.67x8760=14,629Mwh
"At Wind Farm Hamada, Inc.
We expect an annual facility utilization rate of 20%."
I hadn't thought about it. The wind is blowing at 20% of full capacity.
And the local wind conditions map
There is also a website called
If you look at this
I had never heard of the technical term
There is even a distribution map called
What is the Weibull-Weibull coefficient?
"
It is widely used to statistically describe the strength of an object to brittle fracture. The Weibull coefficient m is determined by the type of material used to construct the object. In general, materials with a large m have a smaller variation in strength, which makes it easier to ensure safety in design.
"
Will this be used as a guideline for designing the strength of wind turbines wind turbine?
There are only a little over a thousand of these in Japan, and they are probably all imported from abroad.
I can't imagine any enthusiast using this kind of map information.
Still, there is no information on this site to estimate the operation rate.
I don't have any information to estimate the operation rate from this site. My intuition tells me that 20% is a lot.
For example, if we talk about solar energy
There is data called the annual sunshine hour ranking.
Saitama is the best.
2366 hours/8760 hours = 0.27
Taking into account the weight of the percentage of daytime sunshine
Multiplied by 5 hours/24 hours = 0.2
0.054
is the rate at which the sun is fully available.
So, as a rough estimate (according to Fermi's estimate)
0.2/0.054=3.7
That is
~4x only
Wind power wins
This is the case of wind against solar in Japan.
In the desert it may be equal.
But if we want to make energy in Japan, we should aim to innovate with wind.