３１１の時にいろいろ頑張ったが結局、大して役に立たなかった。
今回も消毒問題や大量の情報の整理そして今は数学モデルの調査など始めたが
はてどこまで切り込めるか？
数学モデルはジャーナリストや科学好きの有能な人たちの情報発信があってそれは日本のお素人さんや日本風の専門家の皆さんの非合理的な説明よりはずっとましに見える。
それらのシミュレーションはこのブログでも紹介している。
Wired
ところが欧米には流石に本当の専門家に近い人が数学的手法を駆使して現状の理解とこれからどうなるかを必死に推定しようとしている。その議論の様子が wired で紹介されている。
計算アルゴリズムの紹介がないので困るがそれでも疫病の理論家の悪戦苦闘の様子が手に取るようにわかるので有用だ。
一部転載：
The Mathematics of Predicting the Course of the Coronavirus
Epidemiologists are using complex models to help policymakers get ahead of the Covid-19 pandemic. But the leap from equations to decisions is a long one.
IN THE PAST few days, New York City’s hospitals have become unrecognizable. Thousands of patients sick with the novel coronavirus have swarmed into emergency rooms and intensive care units. From 3,000 miles away in Seattle, as Lisa Brandenburg watched the scenes unfold—isolation wards cobbled together in lobbies, nurses caring for Covid-19 patients in makeshift trash bag gowns, refrigerated mobile morgues idling on the street outside—she couldn’t stop herself from thinking: “That could be us.”
It could be, if the models are wrong.
Until this past week, Seattle had been the center of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States. It’s where US health officials confirmed the nation’s first case, back in January, and its first death a month later. As president of the University of Washington Medicine Hospitals and Clinics, Brandenburg oversees the region’s largest health network, which treats more than half a million patients every year. In early March, she and many public health authorities were shaken by an urgent report produced by computational biologists at the Fred ...
今回も消毒問題や大量の情報の整理そして今は数学モデルの調査など始めたが
はてどこまで切り込めるか？
数学モデルはジャーナリストや科学好きの有能な人たちの情報発信があってそれは日本のお素人さんや日本風の専門家の皆さんの非合理的な説明よりはずっとましに見える。
それらのシミュレーションはこのブログでも紹介している。
Wired
ところが欧米には流石に本当の専門家に近い人が数学的手法を駆使して現状の理解とこれからどうなるかを必死に推定しようとしている。その議論の様子が wired で紹介されている。
計算アルゴリズムの紹介がないので困るがそれでも疫病の理論家の悪戦苦闘の様子が手に取るようにわかるので有用だ。
一部転載：
The Mathematics of Predicting the Course of the Coronavirus
Epidemiologists are using complex models to help policymakers get ahead of the Covid-19 pandemic. But the leap from equations to decisions is a long one.
IN THE PAST few days, New York City’s hospitals have become unrecognizable. Thousands of patients sick with the novel coronavirus have swarmed into emergency rooms and intensive care units. From 3,000 miles away in Seattle, as Lisa Brandenburg watched the scenes unfold—isolation wards cobbled together in lobbies, nurses caring for Covid-19 patients in makeshift trash bag gowns, refrigerated mobile morgues idling on the street outside—she couldn’t stop herself from thinking: “That could be us.”
It could be, if the models are wrong.
Until this past week, Seattle had been the center of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States. It’s where US health officials confirmed the nation’s first case, back in January, and its first death a month later. As president of the University of Washington Medicine Hospitals and Clinics, Brandenburg oversees the region’s largest health network, which treats more than half a million patients every year. In early March, she and many public health authorities were shaken by an urgent report produced by computational biologists at the Fred ...