庭木を切ろうと思って、レンタカーに高所作業車を借りに行ったら「免許がいります」言われたので、今日は講習へ行ってきました。なんかですね、角度が30度づつ変わると、負荷が1.41倍 1.6倍…と変わっていくんだそうです。どこかで見たような数字ですよね、関係あるんでしょうか？
さて、最近、折角、某外為ドットコムさんのおかげで、スキャルが少し解ってきたのですが、世の中の流れはもう細かい事どうこうしなくでもクロス円買っときゃいい感じですね。なんか残念です。でもまぁ、逆に言えばトレンドが出てるわけで、ココは取りに行って、その後トレンドがはっきりしなくなったら(プロじゃないんだから)きっぱり手を引いて休息をとるという長い目で見た戦略がしっかり取れるかという分かれ目でもあるんでしょうね。
全く関係ありませんが、先ほど名探偵コナン見てたら声が「高山みなみさん」になってましたが、AKBの方ではないですよね～？
ということで、昨日の新聞にこんなのが載ってました。相場については述べていませんが…。
Forex traders lose fear-factor bets as investors pile into Australian dollar
Neil Shah From: The Wall Street Journal April 01, 2011 9:03AM
The Aussie has soared in value despite natural disasters, war and nuclear terror. Source: Supplied
REVOLUTION in the Middle East. A nuclear crisis in Japan. Debt woes in Europe. Worries about fiscal health in the US. In the face of major economic uncertainty this quarter, investors have proven to be a hardy bunch.
But their surprising resilience is causing headaches for currency hedge funds that placed early bets that international exchange rates would swing wildly as markets grappled with economic shocks.
Investors like Overlay Asset Management, a $US22 billion ($21.29bn) hedge fund owned by France's BNP Paribas Investment Partners, and FX Concepts, an $US8bn hedge fund in New York, started anticipating an upsurge of fear in the currency markets a few months ago, betting investors were complacent about upcoming risks and too worried about nebulous long-term challenges.
Such bets seemed destined to pay off as a battery of travails assailed markets: Rumours swirled that Portugal would become the third member of the 17-nation euro-currency zone to require a bailout; unrest spread through North Africa and the Middle East, especially Egypt and Libya, sending oil prices soaring; an earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis savaged Japan, the world's No 3 economy; and worries grew that US and Chinese policy-makers would bungle the difficult task of nurturing a reviving economy without fuelling unwanted inflation.
Helie D'Hautefort, chief executive officer of Paris-based Overlay Asset Management, says his firm started using a common-currency options-trading strategy in January to bet that investors' fears of currency volatility would soon flare up. (A currency option is an insurance-like contract that grants its buyer the right to buy or sell a currency at a predetermined price in the future.)
For several months, Mr D'Hautefort bought options that tended to expire in one or two weeks, usually involving exchange rates like the US dollar/yen, euro/US dollar and Australian dollar/US dollar.
A jump in currency-market fear would make these options more valuable, allowing Mr D'Hautefort to sell them for a profit. To finance the cost of the options, Mr D'Hautefort also sold options that expired over longer periods, such as three months, earning him a small premium. If these longer-term options lost value in the market as Mr D'Hautefort expected, he would buy them back from one of his 10 bank trading partners at a lower price, pocketing the difference between his sale and purchase costs.
The strategy hasn't worked out as well as he hoped: Global financial markets have stabilised after weeks of turbulence. The US Dow Jones Industrial Average is up nearly 7 per cent this quarter, marking its best first quarter in 13 years. Investors are buying "junk" bonds as well as currencies seen as risky, including the Australian dollar, which today reached $US1.0373in New York, its strongest level against the greenback since the Aussie became a free-floating currency in 1983.
Currencies that investors buy in times of trouble, like the Japanese yen and US dollar, are depreciating.
Worst of all, trading in the currency-options market suggests investors are still unruffled by near-term risks and more focused on the chances of wild currency swings in a year's time.
In options jargon, the market's expectations for volatility in the euro/US dollar exchange rate over the next month are trading at 9.7 per cent today, down from the 11.9 per cent level seen at January's end. Expectations for volatility over the next year stand at 12.6 per cent, close to the 13 per cent level from two months ago. Something similar is happening with the US dollar/yen exchange rate despite Japan's crisis: Investors fear a lot more volatility in a year's time than in the next month. This phenomenon, called a "steep volatility curve", has left investors scratching their heads.
"We've had wars, we've had tsunamis, we've had almost everything one can imagine. And yet the volatility of the foreign-exchange market hasn't exploded," says Overlay's Mr D'Hautefort. "All the Black Swans were there," he says, referring to a term popularised by scholar Nassim Nicholas Taleb in 2007, which describes events that are hard to predict and beyond the realm of normal expectations.
Two weeks ago, Mr D'Hautefort started scaling back his strategy. The reason: He isn't making enough money to justify its cost. The trade "has been performing, but not as much as we expected taking into account everything that has happened", he says.
In New York, FX Concepts portfolio manager Ron DiRusso uses computer models to help determine whether short-term options are unusually cheap and longer-term options too pricey. Like Mr D'Hautefort, Mr DiRusso is wagering that the market's grasp of near-term and long-term currency risks is out of whack. Yet so far, his "curve flattening" trade has been disappointing.
After gaining some 35 per cent last year, Mr DiRusso's fund is down about 3 per cent this year. "We run a balanced portfolio," Mr DiRusso says. "We don't depend on one particular strategy. We also have strategies that do well in this type of environment."
Of course, the currency market's panic-o-meters could easily swing in the coming months, zeroing in on near-term risks and benefiting these trades. "Curve flattening structures remain attractive," one foreign-exchange options analyst noted today.
But for now, the more profitable trade is betting that investors' fears will remain glued to the future.
Bankers say some clients are buying long-term options to speculate, reduce their currency risks or insure against a Black Swan financial event. To help pay for these options, they are often selling short-dated options, keeping the "volatility curve" steep.
他方でこういうのもありましたが、
AUSTRALIA'S manufacturing sector contracted in March, weighed down by the increasing cost of raw materials and the impact of a strong Australian dollar, a performance gauge produced by an industry group shows.
After increasing for the first time in five months during February, the past month saw the Performance of Manufacturing Index falling 3.2 points from February to 47.9.
The index, published today, is compiled by the Australian Industry Group and PricewaterhouseCoopers.
A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in the sector.
"The major factor by a long way pressuring Australian manufacturing is the high dollar and this is predicted to remain high for a protracted period of time. The result portends the challenging conditions ahead for the manufacturing sector," AIG Chief Executive Heather Ridout said.
A decline in manufacturing was most pronounced in clothing and footwear, food and beverages, textiles and fabricated metals. After a lift in February, new orders fell again in March.
さて本日はカレーを作りました。あると思っていたジャガイモがなかってのでさつまいも入れましたが、まぁありな感じにできました。