AccuWeather Meteorologist Bernie Rayno explains how a bombogenesis, or “bomb cyclone,” forms. These storms can occur anytime of the year and they bring intense precipitation and damaging winds. A storm moving along the Northeast coast of the United States will explode into a bomb cyclone from Sunday to Monday, unleashing the first blizzard in years for coastal areas and part of the Interstate-95 corridor from near Philadelphia through New York City and Boston. Even though the storm may begin as rain in some areas, especially along the coast on into Sunday evening, a quick transition to snow is forecast for most locations. "This will be the first blizzard for much of the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts in about four years," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys said. "For New York City, the last time there was a blizzard warning in effect was during the storm from Feb. 8-9, 2017," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill added. That storm brought 9.4 inches of snow to Central Park in Manhattan. The rapidly strengthening nor'easter will create heavy snow and strong winds that threaten to shut down travel in a heavily populated, heavily traveled region of the nation. Close to 40 million people from Delaware and New Jersey through southeastern New York and southern New England may experience blizzard conditions, with winds gusting to 35 mph or more and visibility dropping to one-quarter mile or less for at least three consecutive hours. These conditions should qualify the storm as a blizzard. Compared to the storm from Jan. 24-26, which brought light-weight, dry, powdery snow, this storm, due to its heavy weight and clinging nature, will make shoveling difficult and dangerous for some individuals in poor health. With the storm and its snow and wind blasting away at the major hubs in the Northeast, there is the potential for many flight cancellations through Monday. The flights that do operate will be subject to extensive delays due to deicing operations and runway maintenance. By Sunday afternoon, more than 3,000 flights were cancelled across the U.S. for Sunday and over 4,000 have already been canceled for Monday. When is this storm expected to 'bomb out'? This major winter storm is forecast to experience bombogenesis becoming a bomb cyclone by early Monday. “Very simply, it’s a storm where its pressure drops 24 millibars in 24 hours,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. As pressure decreases, the storm intensifies and wind and precipitation increase as well, Rayno added. Because of the storm's anticipated rapid strengthening, with barometric pressure plunging at least 0.71 of an inch of mercury (24 millibars) in 24 hours or less, it will track close enough to the coast to bring a around a foot of snow and locally higher amounts along I-95 from Philadelphia through New York City and Boston. Across portions of New Jersey and Long Island, New York, through portions of southeastern New England, 18-24 inches of snow is forecast with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 36 inches. There may be even greater amounts of snow on the coast and well inland if the storm develops to its full potential and slows its forward speed. Snowfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour at times may overwhelm road crews, leaving some motorists stranded from the mid-Atlantic to southern New England. Farther inland, snowfall will be significantly lower, but enough to shovel and plow from eastern Tennessee and the North Carolina mountains to much of West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, upstate New York and southeastern Maine. Wind gusts will frequently reach 35-60 mph along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. Despite the wet nature of the snow, winds will be strong enough to cause extensive drifting in coastal areas. "The clinging nature of the snow and high winds will put a strain on trees and power lines, with extensive power outages anticipated," AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex Duffus warned. The strong northeast winds during part of the storm will qualify it as a major nor'easter. The angle of the winds will push Atlantic water toward part of the coast for a time, leading to minor to moderate flooding at times of high tide from Delmarva to New Jersey, New York and eastern Massachusetts. Significant beach erosion is expected from Delmarva to Massachusetts. While temperatures will hover near or above freezing in the heavy snow areas for a time on Monday, colder air will move in later in the day and at night, which will cause some areas of slush and standing water to freeze, unless treated. GET THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+ Blustery and colder conditions are in store for Monday night and Tuesday in the Northeast, but the February sun effect will bring some natural melting for several hours on Tuesday. This will be a striking contrast to the aftermath of the storm in mid-January, which was followed by weeks of persistent cold. Still, freezing cycles at night will lead to fresh areas of ice on streets, sidewalks and parking lots on a daily basis this week.
