安倍のおかげで、東京は海面上昇で水没するかもしれない

 

( 英語が苦手な場合は、オンラインの機械翻訳を使用してください )

Guess you learned that the work (by Syukuro Manabe etc.) of modeling global warming is awarded Nobel Prize in physics. This reminds me a thing, how has the so-called "shift of manufacturing supply chain away from China to India and Vietnam etc." worked so far? There had been quite a hype on this subject, and you may still bump into a talk of this kind from time to time recently, so how much damage has been done, and how much is still under way?

Why did I choose the word "damage"? if you knew the answer, then you will understand what the title of this article means. This shift away from China into less developed countries (India, Vietnam, etc.), will have no or little effect on reducing China's green house gas CO2 emission on the one hand, and will greatly increase CO2 emission in the destination countries of the shift on the other hand. Because the infrastructure, the R&D capability, the industrial capacity, the highly skilled workforce have already been established in China, you can't take away these by a simple operation like the shift. As long as China's economy efficiency and automation level stays the same or continue to grow, its CO2 emission will not be reduced much. However, massive investment in those less developed countries could cultivate another China in terms of both industrialization and CO2 emission. (A side note, although China's total CO2 emission is high above all other countries, the CO2 emission per capita of USA is a few times that of China.) Esp. India, which has a population that may have already surpassed China's and still is growing fast, if its CO2 emission per capita increases by 3 or 4 times, then all the effort in CO2 reduction by the rest of the world will be nullified.

CO2 emission shares by country

 

I guess, those politicians and strategists who proposed this supply chain shift, as a strategy to curb China, may have never considered this problem, or like Trump, who openly denies the possibility of global warming caused by CO2 emission. The Americans played a major part of this hype, along with many right wing Japanese who are comrades of Abe. who himself is known as the initial inventor of the Indo-pacific strategy.

I agree that no country should be deprived the right to develop, so are India and Vietnam, etc. However, it is another matter if, someone, for the purpose of their own perceived national interests, juggle with other countries' economic development, up and down. These are selfish, stupid, and arrogant people who pretend they are the omnipotent God, and there will be consequences for these.

You probably know that global warming is esp. harmful for Japan, it could cause Tokyo and many important Japanese cities, just barely above sea level, to be submerged under rising sea level. It is such an irony that the proud inventor of Indo-pacific strategy is Japan's former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and a group of very patriotic Japanese are the most active proponents of the hype about the supply chain shift. They bend over backward to bring the homeland submerged under the rising sea level.

melting arctic ice cap

 

See the above satellite photo of the the Arctic ice cap, if all the ice were melted, then the sea level on Earth will rise about 80 meter, then Tokyo would be a scene where only a few towers stick out of the sea here and there.

 

And there is a related news, recently China stopped financing for coal power plants of belt and road initiative, https://www.beltandroad.news/china-avoids-belt-road-coal-projects. Clearly, China has realized this is not a smart thing to do.

Some politicians, they are proclaimed as genius by themselves (most famously Trump) or by their followers, are actually very stupid, the arrow they shoot out often end up a boomerang that hurts us all. Let's stop them. What I have in mind are, shall we put an end to this stupidity formally, and in addition, to establish some climate committee to monitor/supervise all investments in developing countries. By the way, don't forget to take our hats off to the rightful owners of this stupidity.