Step theta likelihood contribution ESS
0 0 -19678.4774 -27.5334 15.1987
1 0.0015 -9950.7265 -113.8373 16.9272
2 0.0154 -6848.3262 -285.8846 39.1143
3 0.0593 -6153.3842 -580.8173 41.1282
4 0.1548 -6039.2476 -1028.7865 58.0664
5 0.3258 -6005.1028 -1633.722 24.3111
6 0.5982 -5990.5743 -2405.6227 14.0319
7 1 -5985.3503 0 8.9284
marginal L estimate =-6076.203746592951You can use the value after “marginal L estimate” to compare models.
Say, the marginal likelihood estimate value for model 1 is X and the value for model 2 is Y, then the Bayes factor comparing model s1 and 2 is is X-Y. If this difference is positive, then the Bayes factor is in favour of model 1, if it is negative, it is in favour of model 2.
つまり絶対値が０に近いモデルが、よりfitした（採用すべき）モデルという事。