#US #Equity #AAPL
Apple、iPhone 13出荷量推定値1,000万台下方修正
Appleは4Q21の間にiPhoneを約9,000万台出荷する予定だったが、テキサス·インスツルメンツとブロードコムの部品供給不足により約1,000万台減少した8,000万台と予想される。
Appleが再びiPhone中心の成長を遂げているのに、1,000万台が減少したのは無視できるニュースではないが、技術的な問題ではないサプライチェーンの問題、中でも事前に生産するTSMCのAPやLGD、BOE、Samsung Displayの供給問題ではなく、Texas instrumentとbroadcomの問題であることを見ると、最近は物足りない… その手の部品に打撃を受けたようだ. しかし、1,000万台、約11%減少したのは、第4四半期のiPhone売上推定値をそれに見合う水準に減少させなければならず、減少した需要と供給はそのまま1H22に繰り越され、約60%~80%ほど反映されると推定した。
したがってAppleのiPhone EPS推定値は実質的に約3%~6%減。 小幅なTP Cut要素ではあるがiPhone需要が強すぎ、Proラインナップ需要が以前に比べて大幅に伸びたため、実質的にその点を反映すれば株価に及ぼす影響は少ないだろう、したがって今回の事態はマルチプル、DCF基準TPに約$2程度しか下落要因にはならない。
関連記事。
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-12/apple-poised-to-slash-iphone-production-goals-due-to-chip-crunch
Apple(AAPL)
Apple lowered iPhone 13 Series Production Goals by 10 million units
Apple was scheduled to ship about 90 million iPhones during the 4Q21, but due to a lack of parts from Texas Instruments and Broadcom, it is expected to drop by about 10 million units to 80 million units.
Personal opinion) Apple's iPhone-oriented growth and the decline of 10 million units is not negligible news, but it's not a technical problem, but a supply chain problem, especially a Texas instrument and broadcast problem, not a pre-produced TSMC's AP, LGD, BOE, and Samsung Display. As if they were directly hit by those kinds of parts. However, a decrease of 10 million units, about 11%, should reduce iPhone sales estimates in the fourth quarter to a suitable level, and the reduced demand and supply will be postponed to 1H22, reflecting about 60% to 80%.
Therefore, Apple's iPhone EPS estimate is substantially reduced by about 3% to 6%. Although it is a small TP Cut factor, iPhone demand is too strong and professional lineup demand has increased significantly compared to before, so reflecting those points will have little impact on stock prices, which is only about $2 drop factor for TP based on multiple and DCF.
Related articles.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-12/apple-poised-to-slash-iphone-production-goals-due-to-chip-crunch
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