こんにちは🗻🗻
2016年のトップ10リスクについて詳しく解説したいと思います！
文は英語ですが、解説は日本語です😁
Top Risks 2016（Ian Bremmer, President）Published January 4, 2016≫
1 ? The Hollow Alliance: The trans-Atlantic partnership has been the world’s most important alliance for nearly seventy years, but it’s now weaker, and less relevant, than at any point in decades. It no longer plays a decisive role in addressing any of Europe’s top priorities. Russia’s intervention in Ukraine and the conflict in Syria will expose US-European divisions. As US and European paths diverge, there will be no more international fireman―and conflicts particularly in the Middle East will be left to rage.
2 ? Closed Europe: In 2016, divisions in Europe will reach a critical point as a core conflict emerges between Open Europe and Closed Europe―and a combination of inequality, refugees, terrorism, and grassroots political pressures pose an unprecedented challenge to the principles on which the new Europe was founded. Europe’s open borders will face particular pressure. The risk of Brexit is underestimated. Europe’s economics will hold together in 2016, but its broader meaning and its social fabric will not.
3 ? The China Footprint: Never has a country at China’s modest level of economic and political development produced such a powerful global footprint. China is the only country of scale today with a global economic strategy. The recognition in 2016 that China is both the most important and most uncertain driver of a series of global outcomes will increasingly unnerve other international players who aren’t ready for it, don’t understand or agree with Chinese priorities, and won’t know how to respond to it.
4 ? ISIS and “Friends”: ISIS is the world’s most powerful terrorist organization, it has attracted followers and imitators from Nigeria to the Philippines, and the international response to its rise is inadequate, misdirected, and at cross purposes. For 2016, this problem will prove unfixable, and ISIS (and other terrorist organizations) will take advantage of that. The most vulnerable states will remain those with explicit reasons for ISIS to target them (France, Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United States), and those with the largest numbers of unintegrated Sunni Muslims (Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, and across Europe).
5 ? Saudi Arabia: The Saudi Kingdom faces a growing risk of destabilizing discord within the royal family this year, and its increasingly isolated status will lead it to act more aggressively across the Middle East this year. The threat of intra-royal family strife is on the rise, and a scenario of open conflict, unimaginable prior to King Salman’s January 2015 ascension, has now become entirely realistic. The key source of external Saudi anxiety is Iran, soon to be free of sanctions.
6 ? The rise of technologists: A variety of highly influential non-state actors from the world of technology are entering the realm of politics with unprecedented assertiveness. These newly politically ambitious technologists are numerous and diverse, with profiles ranging from Silicon Valley corporations to hacker groups and retired tech philanthropists. The political rise of these actors will generate pushback from governments and citizens, generating both policy and market volatility.
7 ? Unpredictable leaders: An unusually wide constellation of leaders known for their erratic behavior will make international politics exceptionally volatile this year. Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan are leaders of an unruly pack that includes Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and ? to a lesser but important extent ? Ukraine’s Petro Poroshenko. These unpredictable leaders make our list for 2016 because their interventions overlap and conflict. One powerful, erratic leader spells trouble; four spell volatility with major international implications.
8 ? Brazil: President Dilma Rousseff is fighting for her political survival, and the country’s political and economic crisis is set to worsen in 2016. Contrary to hopes among pundits and many market players, the battle over Rousseff’s impeachment is unlikely to end the current political stalemate. Should the president survive, her government won’t gain the political boost necessary to move on the economic reforms needed to tackle the country’s growing fiscal deficit. If Rousseff is ousted, an administration led by Vice President Michel Temer won’t fare much better.
9 ? Not enough elections: Emerging markets underwent a historic cycle of national elections in 2014-2015, but this year there are relatively few opportunities for EM voters to make themselves heard at the ballot box. As slower growth and stagnating living standards stoke popular discontent, governance and stability will suffer. Historically, markets have been less volatile in non-election years, but this time will be different. By raising popular expectations, the massive income growth that most EMs enjoyed over the past 10 years has created conditions for a rude awakening.
10 ? Turkey: After a decisive victory for his AK party in late-2015, President Erdogan will now push to replace the country’s parliamentary system with a presidential one. He’s unlikely to reach his goal in 2016, but his aggressive electioneering will further damage an already battered Turkish business and investment climate. On the security front, there is little prospect of an imminent end to PKK violence, and unrelenting US pressure on Ankara to clamp down on the Islamic State will produce only modest results while making Turkey more vulnerable to new attacks by ISIS.
Red Herrings: US voters aren't going to elect a president who will close the country to Muslims. China’s economy isn’t headed for a hard landing, and its politics will remain stable. Continued strong leadership from Japan's Shinzo Abe, India's Narendra Modi, and especially China's Xi Jinping will keep Asia's three most important players focused on economic reform and longer-term strategy, reducing the risk of conflict in Asia’s geopolitics.
毎年恒例のユーラシアグループによる「2016年Top 10 Risks」が発表された。
1.The Hollow Alliance
2.Closed Europe
3.The China Footprint
4.ISIS and "Friends"
5.Saudi Arabia
6.The Rise of Technologists
7.Unpredictable Leaders
8.Brazil
9.Not Enough Elections
10.Turkey
* Red Herrings
・・・さて２０１６年の１０大リスクについて、以下、勝手な訳を付けて解説しておきたい。
（1）The Hollow Alliance（同盟の空洞化）・・・過去70年間にわたって最重要だった大西洋同盟は弱体化した。ロシアのウクライナ侵攻やシリアでの紛争により、米欧間の亀裂が深まった。そうなると国際的な救助隊は存在しなくなる。これでは中東の大荒れは必至である。
（2）Closed Europe（閉ざされる欧州）・・・2016年の欧州は開放と閉鎖の両方向に引き裂かれ、格差と難民とテロと政治圧力が欧州の理念に立ち塞がる。英国のEU離脱リスクを過小評価してはいけない。経済は統合されたままでも、その他の分野はそうでなくなるだろう。
（3）The China Footprint（中国の足跡）・・・たとえ穏やかなものであっても、中国の発展は世界中に波紋を投げかけている。中国は世界で唯一、グローバルな戦略を持つ国。しかしその最重要な国が最も不安定である、という認識は、準備のない他の国々を苛立たせる。
（4）ISIS and "Friends"（ISISと仲間たち）・・・世界最凶のテロ集団ISISは、西側諸国の不適切な対応も相まってナイジェリアからフィリピンまで賛同者を広げている。彼らISISが狙いやすいのはフランス、ロシア、トルコ、サウジアラビア、そしてアメリカ。そしてイスラム教スンニ派が多いイラクなどもご用心。
（5）Saudi Arabia（サウジアラビア）・・・サウジアラビア王国は昨年１月にアブドラ国王が死去、代わってサルマン国王が即位したが、現在は病気のため皇太子が実務を代行している。しかし隣国イエメンへの軍事介入で多額の戦費をつぎ込むなど、強引な人事や財政悪化などで王族内部の不満が高まっており、王室内の不一致で不安定さを増し、中東での攻撃姿勢を強めるだろう。先代のアブドラ国王時代には考えられなかったクーデターの脅威が高まっている。サウジアラビアの心配は間もなく制裁が解除されるイランに向けられている。
（6）The Rise of Technologists（先進技術の台頭）・・さまざまな非国家アクターが、技術の世界から政治の世界に参入している。シリコンバレー企業からハッカー、引退した篤志家まで、野心的な技術家たちの台頭が政府や市民の退場を迫り、政策や市場の不安定さを増す。
（7）Unpredictable Leaders（予測不可能な政治家たち）・・・ロシアのプーチン、トルコのエルドガン、サウジアラビアのサルマン皇太子、そしてウクライナのポロシェンコなど、風変わりな指導者が国際政治を引っ掻き回す。1人なら単なる邪魔者だが、4人では不安定性だ。
（8）Brazil（ブラジル）・・・汚職にまみれたルセフ大統領が生き残りを目指す間に、ブラジルの国家の危機は深まる。大統領弾劾では今の混迷は解消しない。ルセフ大統領が生き残ればブラジルの経済改革への推進力は失われ、居なくなればテメル副大統領には荷が重い。
（9）Not Enough Elections（選挙が足りない）・・・2014年、15年は新興国の選挙が相次いだ。ところが16年はその機会が少なく、国民の不満を深めるだろう。新興国では過去10年の収入増加により、国民の要求水準が高まっている。
（10）Turkey（トルコ）・・・エルドガン大統領は与党の大勝後、議会制システムを大統領制に替えようと図る。しかしトルコ国内のビジネス界や投資環境は悪化。安保面ではクルド勢力の制圧やISIS掃討への見込みは薄く、逆にテロ攻撃の危険は高まる。
＊Red Herrings （リスクもどき）・・・アメリカの有権者はイスラム教徒に国を閉ざすトランプ氏を大統領に選出せず、中国経済はハードランディングせず、政治の安定も続く。日本の安倍首相、インドのモディ首相、中国の習国家主席は強い指導力を維持し、アジアのリスクを軽減する。
・・・結論として、「Top Risks 2016」では、今年は新興国は大変なことになるけれども、日本とその周辺のアジアは安泰だということになる。新年早々、早速サウジアラビアが熱い・・・。
1 ? The Hollow Alliance: The trans-Atlantic partnership has been the world’s most important alliance for nearly seventy years, but it’s now weaker, and less relevant, than at any point in decades. It no longer plays a decisive role in addressing any of Europe’s top priorities. Russia’s intervention in Ukraine and the conflict in Syria will expose US-European divisions. As US and European paths diverge, there will be no more international fireman―and conflicts particularly in the Middle East will be left to rage.
2 ? Closed Europe: In 2016, divisions in Europe will reach a critical point as a core conflict emerges between Open Europe and Closed Europe―and a combination of inequality, refugees, terrorism, and grassroots political pressures pose an unprecedented challenge to the principles on which the new Europe was founded. Europe’s open borders will face particular pressure. The risk of Brexit is underestimated. Europe’s economics will hold together in 2016, but its broader meaning and its social fabric will not.
3 ? The China Footprint: Never has a country at China’s modest level of economic and political development produced such a powerful global footprint. China is the only country of scale today with a global economic strategy. The recognition in 2016 that China is both the most important and most uncertain driver of a series of global outcomes will increasingly unnerve other international players who aren’t ready for it, don’t understand or agree with Chinese priorities, and won’t know how to respond to it.
4 ? ISIS and “Friends”: ISIS is the world’s most powerful terrorist organization, it has attracted followers and imitators from Nigeria to the Philippines, and the international response to its rise is inadequate, misdirected, and at cross purposes. For 2016, this problem will prove unfixable, and ISIS (and other terrorist organizations) will take advantage of that. The most vulnerable states will remain those with explicit reasons for ISIS to target them (France, Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United States), and those with the largest numbers of unintegrated Sunni Muslims (Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, and across Europe).
5 ? Saudi Arabia: The Saudi Kingdom faces a growing risk of destabilizing discord within the royal family this year, and its increasingly isolated status will lead it to act more aggressively across the Middle East this year. The threat of intra-royal family strife is on the rise, and a scenario of open conflict, unimaginable prior to King Salman’s January 2015 ascension, has now become entirely realistic. The key source of external Saudi anxiety is Iran, soon to be free of sanctions.
6 ? The rise of technologists: A variety of highly influential non-state actors from the world of technology are entering the realm of politics with unprecedented assertiveness. These newly politically ambitious technologists are numerous and diverse, with profiles ranging from Silicon Valley corporations to hacker groups and retired tech philanthropists. The political rise of these actors will generate pushback from governments and citizens, generating both policy and market volatility.
7 ? Unpredictable leaders: An unusually wide constellation of leaders known for their erratic behavior will make international politics exceptionally volatile this year. Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan are leaders of an unruly pack that includes Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and ? to a lesser but important extent ? Ukraine’s Petro Poroshenko. These unpredictable leaders make our list for 2016 because their interventions overlap and conflict. One powerful, erratic leader spells trouble; four spell volatility with major international implications.
8 ? Brazil: President Dilma Rousseff is fighting for her political survival, and the country’s political and economic crisis is set to worsen in 2016. Contrary to hopes among pundits and many market players, the battle over Rousseff’s impeachment is unlikely to end the current political stalemate. Should the president survive, her government won’t gain the political boost necessary to move on the economic reforms needed to tackle the country’s growing fiscal deficit. If Rousseff is ousted, an administration led by Vice President Michel Temer won’t fare much better.
9 ? Not enough elections: Emerging markets underwent a historic cycle of national elections in 2014-2015, but this year there are relatively few opportunities for EM voters to make themselves heard at the ballot box. As slower growth and stagnating living standards stoke popular discontent, governance and stability will suffer. Historically, markets have been less volatile in non-election years, but this time will be different. By raising popular expectations, the massive income growth that most EMs enjoyed over the past 10 years has created conditions for a rude awakening.
10 ? Turkey: After a decisive victory for his AK party in late-2015, President Erdogan will now push to replace the country’s parliamentary system with a presidential one. He’s unlikely to reach his goal in 2016, but his aggressive electioneering will further damage an already battered Turkish business and investment climate. On the security front, there is little prospect of an imminent end to PKK violence, and unrelenting US pressure on Ankara to clamp down on the Islamic State will produce only modest results while making Turkey more vulnerable to new attacks by ISIS.
Red Herrings: US voters aren't going to elect a president who will close the country to Muslims. China’s economy isn’t headed for a hard landing, and its politics will remain stable. Continued strong leadership from Japan's Shinzo Abe, India's Narendra Modi, and especially China's Xi Jinping will keep Asia's three most important players focused on economic reform and longer-term strategy, reducing the risk of conflict in Asia’s geopolitics.
毎年恒例のユーラシアグループによる「2016年Top 10 Risks」が発表された。
1.The Hollow Alliance
2.Closed Europe
3.The China Footprint
4.ISIS and "Friends"
5.Saudi Arabia
6.The Rise of Technologists
7.Unpredictable Leaders
8.Brazil
9.Not Enough Elections
10.Turkey
* Red Herrings
・・・さて２０１６年の１０大リスクについて、以下、勝手な訳を付けて解説しておきたい。
（1）The Hollow Alliance（同盟の空洞化）・・・過去70年間にわたって最重要だった大西洋同盟は弱体化した。ロシアのウクライナ侵攻やシリアでの紛争により、米欧間の亀裂が深まった。そうなると国際的な救助隊は存在しなくなる。これでは中東の大荒れは必至である。
（2）Closed Europe（閉ざされる欧州）・・・2016年の欧州は開放と閉鎖の両方向に引き裂かれ、格差と難民とテロと政治圧力が欧州の理念に立ち塞がる。英国のEU離脱リスクを過小評価してはいけない。経済は統合されたままでも、その他の分野はそうでなくなるだろう。
（3）The China Footprint（中国の足跡）・・・たとえ穏やかなものであっても、中国の発展は世界中に波紋を投げかけている。中国は世界で唯一、グローバルな戦略を持つ国。しかしその最重要な国が最も不安定である、という認識は、準備のない他の国々を苛立たせる。
（4）ISIS and "Friends"（ISISと仲間たち）・・・世界最凶のテロ集団ISISは、西側諸国の不適切な対応も相まってナイジェリアからフィリピンまで賛同者を広げている。彼らISISが狙いやすいのはフランス、ロシア、トルコ、サウジアラビア、そしてアメリカ。そしてイスラム教スンニ派が多いイラクなどもご用心。
（5）Saudi Arabia（サウジアラビア）・・・サウジアラビア王国は昨年１月にアブドラ国王が死去、代わってサルマン国王が即位したが、現在は病気のため皇太子が実務を代行している。しかし隣国イエメンへの軍事介入で多額の戦費をつぎ込むなど、強引な人事や財政悪化などで王族内部の不満が高まっており、王室内の不一致で不安定さを増し、中東での攻撃姿勢を強めるだろう。先代のアブドラ国王時代には考えられなかったクーデターの脅威が高まっている。サウジアラビアの心配は間もなく制裁が解除されるイランに向けられている。
（6）The Rise of Technologists（先進技術の台頭）・・さまざまな非国家アクターが、技術の世界から政治の世界に参入している。シリコンバレー企業からハッカー、引退した篤志家まで、野心的な技術家たちの台頭が政府や市民の退場を迫り、政策や市場の不安定さを増す。
（7）Unpredictable Leaders（予測不可能な政治家たち）・・・ロシアのプーチン、トルコのエルドガン、サウジアラビアのサルマン皇太子、そしてウクライナのポロシェンコなど、風変わりな指導者が国際政治を引っ掻き回す。1人なら単なる邪魔者だが、4人では不安定性だ。
（8）Brazil（ブラジル）・・・汚職にまみれたルセフ大統領が生き残りを目指す間に、ブラジルの国家の危機は深まる。大統領弾劾では今の混迷は解消しない。ルセフ大統領が生き残ればブラジルの経済改革への推進力は失われ、居なくなればテメル副大統領には荷が重い。
（9）Not Enough Elections（選挙が足りない）・・・2014年、15年は新興国の選挙が相次いだ。ところが16年はその機会が少なく、国民の不満を深めるだろう。新興国では過去10年の収入増加により、国民の要求水準が高まっている。
（10）Turkey（トルコ）・・・エルドガン大統領は与党の大勝後、議会制システムを大統領制に替えようと図る。しかしトルコ国内のビジネス界や投資環境は悪化。安保面ではクルド勢力の制圧やISIS掃討への見込みは薄く、逆にテロ攻撃の危険は高まる。
＊Red Herrings （リスクもどき）・・・アメリカの有権者はイスラム教徒に国を閉ざすトランプ氏を大統領に選出せず、中国経済はハードランディングせず、政治の安定も続く。日本の安倍首相、インドのモディ首相、中国の習国家主席は強い指導力を維持し、アジアのリスクを軽減する。
・・・結論として、「Top Risks 2016」では、今年は新興国は大変なことになるけれども、日本とその周辺のアジアは安泰だということになる。新年早々、早速サウジアラビアが熱い・・・。