By Andrei Lankov Published: March 23 2008 14:59 | Last updated: March 23 2008 14:59 North Korea is again in the news. The visible success of the New York Philharmonic’s February concert in Pyongyang produced a predictable wave of optimistic expectations. Combined with the talks about alleged “progress on the nuclear issue”, the concert has helped to foster an impression that the soft approach to the country is working and will eventually bring about the miraculous transformation of a destitute rogue state into a reforming nation, akin to China or Vietnam.
However, this sense of optimism needs to be kept in perspective. The North Korean regime has been striving to acquire nuclear weapons for half a century. Pyongyang needs them both as a deterrent against a foreign attack and as a negotiating chip to deploy in order to squeeze important concessions from the outside world.
The incentives that can be offered in exchange for denuclearisation are still not attractive enough. Generous aid is welcome, but the regime knows it can survive without it, as was the case in the 1990s. Of course, an estimated 1m people starved to death during that time, but cognac-sipping Pyongyang leaders have shown a remarkable ability to ignore the suffering of their own people.
For now, Pyongyang is stalling for time. Soon it will become evident that it has no intention of surrendering its nuclear devices. When that happens, the Washington hardliners will predictably get angry and demand a ban on all exchanges with North Korea. Their battle cry will be “isolation and pressure”. Perhaps they will also point to the New York Philharmonic’s trip as having been a mistake or a sign of weakness. They will be wrong.
Indeed, the dream of a Chinese-style transformation in Pyongyang seems to be unfounded. The prosperity of their affluent South Korean neighbours is still largely unknown to most North Kor eans and makes the situation in the North very different from that of China. North Korea’s leaders believe that since Chinese-style reforms req uire an expansion in inter actions with the outside world, these reforms will lead to an East German-style collapse, not a Chinese-style economic boom. So they prefer to keep their people under control and earn cash not by improving their economy but by fabricating an international crisis and squeezing ransom money from the outside world.
However, pressure and isolation will not work either. The US cannot “isolate” the North. China, South Korea and perhaps even Russia, driven by their own priorities, will continue to provide at least some aid, helping to keep the regime afloat. The only real hope is in the form of transformation from below – a revolution.
It will happen, sooner or later, but there are two strategies to speed up the event which should be used simultaneously. First, one should try to provide North Koreans with information about the outside world. The continuous support for radio broadcasts and to fund opposition activities is vital.
Second, there is another strategy to foment dissent – the development of officially approved exchanges, such as visits by academics, hosting concerts and exhibitions. Since such measures require Pyongyang’s consent, they would be impossible to arrange without some compromises. Hardline critics may be right that North Korean officials will portray these visits as a foreigners’ tribute to their “Dear Leader”. However, one should not overestimate the efficiency of this propaganda. I grew up in the Soviet Union in the 1970s and officially approved cultural and academic exchanges were a critical source of information about life overseas and helped arouse serious doubts about the communist system.
Both strategies should be used persistently, irrespective of what is happening on the ever-shifting diplomatic front. One should not dismiss support for broadcast and opposition activities, even when optimists assure everybody that the North Korean regime is about to change itself. (It will never change itself.) On the other hand, the cultural and academic exchanges (as well as humanitarian assistance) should continue even in the midst of another crisis – whatever the hawks say.
Soon it will become clear that North Korea will retain its nuclear ambitions. This should not mean it becomes a no-go area for Western artists or non-government bodies. These exchanges are not a reward for the regime. Their ultimate goal is to influence the minds of the people and bring changes from below – probably in a form that Pyongyang leaders will not like.
The writer is an associate professor at Kookmin University in Seoul
