BBS has had a similar evolution of the concept

Talk about Ali Baba!growth of Alibaba B2B business logic is started, when 99 years of the start of the dotcom bubble, the domestic emergence of a large number of Internet companies, but Alibaba's B2B should be among the first to achieve profitable company, in fact, we look back see, had many well-known Internet companies are basically gone, names are not quite want to get up. Survive and live is also a good Sina, Sohu, Netease three major portals (I refer only to the company founded around 99 years, after not), which NetEase is also almost Nasdaq delisting , then the use of online games, had become the richest man, when in fact there are a number of particularly interesting website, at that time under certain conditions, limited to a number of conditions, and failure to achieve good living, but the passage of time, up to now, these modes it's alive again. One of the most typical is B2C, in 2000, many Internet companies try online sales, but the development of the final constraints, it is because of logistics and warehousing can not keep up, resulting in de facto online sales can not achieve them. I remember we read in college, in a mall to buy instant noodles, most of the night, people really give sent. But he failed to adhere to one year, went bankrupt. B2C popular now, it is because the package to keep up. There is a micro-Bo, in fact, when in 2000, BBS has had a similar evolution of the concept of micro-Bo, but quickly disappeared, and now the popular microblogging Why? To a certain extent, is formed thanks to the mobile Internet under plus 3G intelligent machine co boost, microblogging start breeding when also, the potential is also, in fact, is quite correct, at the right time, doing the right thing, you can not go too fast. Alibaba's B2B business, why can first achieve profitability, the current situation is actually promote the results, the background is China's first 94 years after the exchange rate reform, and it followed a substantial growth of foreign trade, and the second background, 98 years after his flight over the development of Internet technology, greatly reducing network costs. These two factors are prerequisite for B2B can get rapid development, B2B development to the present, more just to stay in the information exchange capabilities, technical level, relatively simple, in this business, it is to a large number of enterprises Information published on the site Alibaba, so that foreign procurement, in terms of the field, so much is the Internet company Alibaba, as it is a marketing company Alibaba, he realized that the labor-intensive work, a lot of the country Recruitment home sales marketing trade customers, to enable them to Alibaba release products, in fact, highly reproducible, and with the constant advance of time, this model is actually more difficult to sustain, the reason is simple, the more opportunities for foreign trade less and less, a lot of the initial supplier, the development of late have formed a stable customer base, new procurement fewer opportunities, publishing information obtained by the feedback also increasingly reduced, while with substantial foreign trade in unsustainable Growth is inevitable. This trend is the case why has not the market after Hong Kong-listed Alibaba approved the main reason, after the market has been down, the final discount delisting. But from the beginning to see, B2B at the time in the background, to achieve leapfrog development, Alibaba to develop the foundation to the present, no matter how criticized by many, whether good or bad strategy Alibaba B2B intermediate taken, Alibaba The B2B is a starting point. As Alibaba B2B started domestic operations in the next, I think that Alibaba general advantages, operability is poor, B2B shrink does not require much in doubt. After the B2B Taobao, during SARS in 2003, the creation of Alibaba Taobao, Taobao is not the first, at the time of the market, the major domestic eBay, and later settled EBAY eBay, Taobao's competitors became EBAY, Taobao beat EBAY main strategy is free, Taobao take the case under all free, relatively easy to defeat EBAY, so Alibaba after accusing many electricity providers unethical competition, at a loss of price competition, but to reflect on it, Taobao is all electric PRICE wars start. After Taobao, Alipay, in fact, Alipay mock objects or EBAY PayPal, pre-function almost exactly the same, so a lot of people say that Alipay is Taobao beat EBAY root causes, I do not agree, defeated EBAY root cause is free, if said there was the same thing, and that is wide access of Taobao, EBAY fact, goods or access requirements more stringent, but Taobao is not the same, what can enter this market, so a lot of fakes flooding Taobao middle, has also undergone a lot of litigation cases. But anyway, Taobao has become a baton by Alibaba B2B business later become the core of Alibaba now the core. After Taobao, is the Lynx Mall B2C, so the evolution of Alibaba, in fact, is B2B, C2C, B2C, the current trend, B2C, may become Alibaba third baton. But now estimated or Taobao C2C business. Because Alibaba reputation, partly because Ma personal ability is very good, excellent eloquence, depicts a beautiful blueprint for good, so it is easy to give very excited appeal, so that people do not care about the real status of Ali Baba, the real Status of Ali Baba, not very good, from September 2011 to June 2012, nine months between Alibaba total revenue reached $ 2.9 billion, Nike Air Griffey Max net income of $ 781 million, a margin of 27%. While Ali Baba in income has become China's third largest online, but compared with Tencent and Baidu profit margin of 50% or more frequently, it is pales. Alibaba is currently capable of forming revenues mainly the following pieces, Alibaba B2B business, Taobao advertising business, as well as the Lynx service fee income, together cost-effective, Paypal, also had a certain amount of income. Other pieces of business, including not cause lines, but great imagination to give Ali Ali finance, estimated the short term I think it is still Nike Air LeBron EE losing money, the latter will be specifically addressed, there is not much to say. But for now that a few business point of view, I feel the whole imagination is very limited, B2B discussed earlier too, Alibaba scenery when the market valuation is 30 billion dollars, while delisting time is about 8 billion US dollars valuation In fact, my views on the B2B business is more pessimistic, to be exact, this business will become tasteless business after almost no imagination. Alibaba and may also be a great burden, delisting, if I remember correctly, in the B2B business profits probably less than $ 200 million valuation of $ 8 billion, profits of less than 200 million dollars, the valuation obvious It is on the high side. Also see Supra Skytop IV the Lynx, Lynx plus Taobao first occupied the electricity suppliers about 90% of the market share it, but now, with Jingdong, Suning, Gome, constantly adding, accounting Lynx Nike Air Max 1 is probably down to around 60%, the rate of decline is still very obvious, and this trend still further down, of course, the overall size or meeting to go, but the share will down, the other is the profit margin will be down, the electricity supplier war C2C, I do not think there is any significance has since do not make money. Even money, but also very limited, mainly advertising revenue, maintain cost is also high. The B2C competition, in fact, has just begun, use Taobao, Lynx went to the front, but can not say how long this advantage. Jingdong actually emulate year Alibaba Taobao thinking, loss strategy to continue to erode Lynx share, and now with the banks also joined the fray to play the electricity supplier, electricity providers believe that after the end of the day, even if money cat shop, will increasingly do not make money, then the final play of the game who lived to the end. Overall, Alibaba B2C and C2C, I am optimistic about the competitiveness of the former, but the current outcome is not divided, not under judgment. C2C is Ali now seems to be the biggest one injured chips, many years before the loss of C2C, saying began a profit. C2C profit is actually very difficult, Ali Baba he made a profit itself is not easy, but the follow-up to maintain high profit growth Why? From accounting point of view, in fact, Taobao C2C should be in the downward phase, the next step Competition should focus on the B2C area, and I believe a lot of people do not believe this inference, but I still adhere to this view, C2C down, also there are several large backgrounds. On the one hand is the day the cat B2C, C2C is Nike Lebron X Elite actually eroded the share of Taobao's C2C is the Lynx maximum flow entrance, this is the core point Lynx constitute a competitive advantage, but with the days of the continuous flow of imported Lynx, C2C businesses growing discontent, especially in recent C2C has been more than a year is not peaceful, October siege incident, in fact, the business of B2C and C2C Taobao big protest this kind of thing, although the final margin to slow increases in charges have been solved, but predictable result is achieved when defeat EBAY free strategy, now experiencing a dilemma, if you do not charge, so increasing difficulty C2C operations, but also for Ali, the operating pressure will continue to increase, but the key is to create a B2C competition, because no matter from which perspective, C2C prices and costs should be lower than B2C, but Ali's B2C technology should be a top priority of the future, in this case, for the B2C the tendency is an inevitable trend, in terms of rankings, etc., the same product after almost all C2C B2C, C2C will mean an increase in the survival plight. Even without charge under, are true, then the charges C2C it? Charges C2C, it means Taobao destined to give up a lot of small sellers, and these sellers are then helped defeat Ali EBAY force, moral life difficult no problem, the key is at the same time a large number of small sellers Taobao loss will lose a lot of buyers, the current C2C and B2C relationship is complex, simple to understand is the day the cat is similar to a large high-end shopping mall, which is Taobao The most intensive urban crowd, if the crowd is not dense once, then the high-end passenger Lynx mall will be reduced accordingly, so that the overall flow of Taobao ensure stability, Alibaba should still do a very long period of time in the future work until the Lynx Taobao to leave, otherwise Lynx mall compete with other, should not be much advantage. From this perspective, Taobao will inevitably have to choose a very long period of time free strategy, and Nike KD 7 this strategy for Alibaba, the profit would have been unable to effectively enhance the affirmative. As C2C and B2C growth, this issue, it is hard to judge, my own judgment is that no matter C2C and B2C, after so many years of development, have explosive growth potential, should be the possibility of not too big, Many people take a few years to do more double 11, I do not think myself to be very value this year because of the presence of two-11 has two background, the first is double last year's 11, not many people know, and this year double 11, massive, almost all people know, so the demand was artificially deliberately and after early pressure, and from this point of view, 13 years of double 11, double 11 than 12 years have grown explosively The possibility is almost zero. Second, a large background that a large number of businesses are actually using two 11 destocking, the price war, and this price war is not necessarily sustainable conditions. Therefore, the rapid growth of double 11, and can not be understood as the electricity supplier there is much room for development. 2012 Ali Baba's electricity supplier to do a trillion, one of the country's total retail sales 18 points, with the rapid development of China's economy as a whole into the plateau, then the country's retail sales should also be increasingly flat, Ma Wang Jianlin bet with ten ten trillion years to break, I think Ma wins must have a premise that the country's total retail trade have broken one hundred trillion. Ma is otherwise not win the jackpot. The second major electricity supplier development background is actually subject to many restrictions, online is to increase Internet users increased and the shopping experience, the next line is the bottleneck of logistics canceled, two former premises indispensable. Electricity supplier development is the trend, but has entered a plateau, the logistics can not keep up, it is real, not to Ma as the objective conditions and objective metastasis. Logistics with the country's transport infrastructure, labor costs, even with the economic forms of development are positively correlated, absolutely not a single entity effort can change the status quo. Both background actually greater degree of control of the electric commercial development, to maintain earnings growth before Ali 100%, personal feeling, the difficulty has been great. Inverse translation is C2C and B2C are not effectively boost overall profits Ali upstream, high-growth small possibility Ma elaborated. As for Ali and Ali cloud Amoy. Ali cloud, I really do not understand, if Alibaba has a different number, it should be Ali cloud, because I guess most people did not understand Ali cloud in the end be able to toss out something, or maybe do not Good apples to toss out that Alibaba Niubi big, high growth is inevitable, this assertion I can not do, do not know, put aside. As a scouring, I think the word, rubbish. Do not do the evaluation. Alibaba's intention may be hope to become a scouring parity tool, but he forgot one important point is that this kind of thing parity, generally non stakeholders to do their own there's biggest electricity supplier, in doing parity, basically did not care to belong to the state of the. Because who do not believe you. Ma himself said strategy, platform, financial, data. Seven Swords six months ago, according to Ma's statement, is to do platform, then after the platform, he wants to finance, so that stresses the integrity of network operators to get rich first. Finally do data, it is to do economic meteorological station forecast. Economic variations can predict in advance. So, Ali finance, became the second former Ma they think the killer mace heart, and in the bigger platform based on Ali finance it ready to come out. For this proposition, I've been visited Ali finance. Indeed also changed, I discuss a lot Nike Air Jordan 5 Women Ali finance. Ali then talk about their financial views. Many people say that I always look at Jordan CP3 VI other financial model bank angle, a large bank thinking on the inside, in fact, I think that I do not have big bank thinking, just because I think in the current situation, China Trend serious financial credit Under the status quo, to control credit risk, the bank is relatively the most authoritative and rigorous place, with bank credit standards point of view, in fact, reasonable. Of course I am not against the wind of financial innovation challenge banks control thinking, but until now, we did not find too many successful innovative behavior. Ali finance, is a lot of media that challenges the bank, in fact, Ali, people inside do not think Ali finance with banks will compete, there are no challenges, a lot of media like wishful thinking to impose their views to Ali who, in fact, the overall strategy Ali Ma's speech which is very clear, he is bigger platform first, then do the banking, finance is derived from the platform in the financial, Air Jordan Outlet rather than do independent financial, banking is done for what ? To make honest network operators to get rich, do you mean? mean financial but also to the network platform services. The core point, in fact, can not be ignored. Ali back to the last financial expectations better for C2C, B2C, B2B service even. Ali helped build better ecosystem. Ali's C2C and B2B, there are a lot of customers, Ali has been hoping that the bank's financial services to these customer groups benefiting up, so have with China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of cooperation, but in the process of cooperation, Ali considered inefficient banks and inadequate risk control so many of his great good customer service, have failed to obtain loans should be obtained, and thus no further development and expansion, Ali blamed the responsibility for the bank's inaction or lack of flexibility. Ali, in cooperation with the bank to no avail, began to germinate their own financial, customer service ideas. In other words, the customer base itself is not the bank's clients, Ali do these customers, with the bank also did not construct the positive competition. One feature of these customer groups small, and second, dispersed, three are big risks and uncertainties, the four general unsecured unsecured. For the banks, due to the strict external supervision and internal control, and a single risk control measures, we can not enter this area really is doomed, even if in doing more financial innovation, but it is still unable to operate. From a global perspective, small, small areas of credit support to the financial sector problems are in fact, or Yunus will not get such a high honor and title of. So Ali Baba financial support in this area, with competition among banks is actually not much intersection. Here, conversely, if you get the Alibaba banking license, this field may not actually lending operations, because under external supervision, issuance of work do not allow a lot of credit loans. So take no intention of Alibaba banking license, I believe. And Ali Baba left the C2C, is essentially dry wood, rootless group, basically equivalent to martial the whole waste, with the bank to re-turf war. Great conceivable difficulty. But in the C2C field? Because control of a very large Taobao hand, Alibaba basically belong to no opponent of the king, where he is rule-makers, he was like a duck to do finance in this field, I can place assertion that if Ali can not do financial Taobao its financial years, then there is a proposition to be achieved, and that is not suitable for small micro-credit loans to field support. After Ali finance in the field of C2C has two advantages, the first one is with a strong risk protection measures, generally speaking, rule out the risk of malicious fraud, bad form trade enterprises mainly to sluggish sales of problems, but with Taobao natural ability to digest inventory, general product just go to Taobao home, digest general inventory, in fact, is a matter of minutes. This is the advantage of Taobao, others irreplaceable advantages. The second advantage is supporting Taobao Alipay, Ali finance the first time can be made for funds to monitor and chargeback. These two advantages, in fact, are the two risk control advantages only under his rule, can be achieved. And risk control measures are effective, the other so-called data tracking, analysis and risk warning and so on, I can only think is to reduce the probability of bad logic fills practice effect and logical reasoning is actually completely two concepts theoretically reduce the probability of default risk control measures, in fact, as long as the possibility of leaving a little bit, the basic is not established. And so on will be described. I've been here set forth are C2C Ali financial field, why not mention the B2B and B2C, is also a reason, Ali financial service actually want to cut into the B2B, B2B businesses face shrinking, if not better The service is introduced, B2B, basically a dead end, if there is financial support support to keep up, may also be a reverse trend highlights, but because of B2B, it is only the exchange of information, but no other transactions, therefore, essential to create financial Ali risk assessment model, the model could take only be similar to the bank's due diligence on the way home, and in this way for a large number of very small amounts of loans, expensive, highly paid and income is not proportional, although Ali finance also think of other ways such as outsourcing, but in general, the results are unsatisfactory, the balance has been unable to go. To be honest, in this business without any financial advantage Ali up financial support. As B2C, Ali Baba actually have an advantage, but the competition is fierce precisely because B2C settled areas of the business, cash flow is generally a good business, but sales are very large, usually by tight local bank tight tracking of business, the Bank can provide financial support must be superfluous Ali Baba, Ali finance in this area to give credit support is very limited, in terms of the amount, or no advantage from the services. Of course, Ali can develop better some financial innovation business, evaluate the advantages of flexible system, and perhaps some of the ways to get out, but banks, too, can not be achieved in various ways Ali and measures to give more support. This constitutes a competitive field, but because of the B2C field, the Lynx now, although a dominant, but Jingdong, Suning, Gome, even the bank's own electricity suppliers are joining choose to compete, in fact, more banks, while Ali was only hinges on itself. Ali from the current balance of the loan financial point of view, most of them concentrated in the C2C, also can look out. From the growth point of view, the current electricity provider done in the case of a trillion, the overall financial balance of Ali actually probably should not be over five billion scale, Ali finance run quite a long time, a variety of model is relatively mature, from Under such a case, there is much Ali financial room for growth? I feel very difficult ah. Ali finance the current number of about three hundred people, if not effectively increase the balance, but it is still worth the candle, three hundred fifty million individuals operating loans, and how to look for money. Only based on the continuous upward on Taobao is it possible to continue to rise to Ali finance, both want each other to boost factors boost uplink use Taobao Ali finance, in turn, enabled Ali also boost financial Taobao up, but in front of me The problem is discussed in the hands of Taobao Ali, has been in a fight with B2C, my own feelings, Taobao will become increasingly marginalized, this really is not necessarily Ali own ideas, but the result Nike Air Max of market-driven, if not derived from Taobao industry can make money out of Taobao actually meaningless existence, like a Jinshan in your hands, but he just can not make money, but also pointless, but so far spawned C2C Paypal, transaction volume of less than hundreds of billions 200 million profit, but also gave birth to the Lynx, but the Lynx in turn will have to overthrow the C2C, also gave birth to Ali finance, but also not profitable financial Ali, even money, but also less likely to have a high valuation. Also she gave birth to a scouring, but basically in a senseless embarrassment, the C2C, is already the all Ali al difficulty, always think it is a treasure, how to use it?! Yes ah, how to use it? Now Taobao He began selling the fund, to sell financial products, but in the end will be? Do not know. In fact, this is the status of Ali, because among different platforms, although derived from Taobao, but their relationship has competition, but also to prepare for the new platform derived from Taobao injury, I said this is in fact Ali there have been so-called large enterprises ill. Relationship between Alipay Ali finance and in fact, is the relationship between these numerous inside a microcosm. It is very difficult to handle, in theory, Paypal is the need to keep the support of the banks, although rumors everywhere Alipay powerful, but in fact, Alipay bank card, after all, still need to recharge and withdrawals, with online banking and the increasingly powerful role of bank cards has become increasingly evident, aside Taobao transactions in case of need Alipay mobile banking, other transfers, transaction capabilities, in fact, the probability of being replaced by trading functions of the bank's own card higher and higher. Imagine, you do the taxi, you hope people give money to your card assigned to it, or want people to send money into Paypal? Paypal and facing increasingly fierce competition in fact, now has 232 paid license Zhang. Taobao Alipay once in a dominant, which is now probably accounted for about 50% share continued downward. Alipay pressure also increasing. Of course, this is a digression, Ali financial relationship with Alipay is very interesting. Ali does not constitute a financial fact, in direct competition with the banks, but always to be set up outside the bank to resist competition model and typical, and many times will always allow banks are unhappy, conversely, for small and medium micro enterprises, some small Cheap Nike Free Outlet banks or conduct business with Ali finance cross competition, in this case, the bank's cooperation with Alipay is very passive, always for the role of Ali became finance backside. To maintain good banking relationships, Paypal general cooperation with the bank, mainly using the hands of a very large deposit Paypal precipitation, maneuvers between the various banks, look at the parts of the deposit, Nike Air Max 2012 Men the bank generally sorted Alipay good cooperation , but the problem is in Alipay cooperative banks increasing amount of deposit resources are quite limited. Alipay daily precipitation deposits in about 60 billion yuan or so, the figure would like further upstream, in fact, the difficulty is getting bigger. This figure, in fact, that small is not small, but certainly not to say big big. In fact, there is still a sense inference, if Ali finance really set up the bank, I guess basically the bank may have to cut off cooperation with Alipay. Sixty billion for banks only say that barely okay figure it. But absolutely do not constitute less that 60 billion less than the argument alive. So, I think the possibility of the establishment of the bank is not too big Ali. Ali finance current major formats but it is still small loan formats, whether it is realistic to consider in the future consideration, I feel no need to become a bank financial Ali, became the bank, put a lot of partners to push the level up to the opponents, but also by more external supervision, so he could not do a lot of things can be done now, for example, small businesses do to his credit, many banks are subject to the supervision of the Banking Bureau is unable to get credit to do so. C2C field Ali're in finance, I have to say outside the front of the two measures, the so-called advantages of the data, but this data advantage, whether energy into risk control measures, I have always marked with a big question mark, in this I do a lot of areas of my own ideas, but in fact back substantially, or to the results speak, my view is unlimited low probability of default does not mean it does not default. Ali financial core using various financial models behind the bulk of lending transactions is whether sufficient support is financial modeling and financial modeling default rates really can be reduced to a certain probability of certainty up to determine the possibility of 1:30 would Under really bad judgment, we can go to the next before I wrote 'Talk Alibaba to do finance', in which I described a few judge that the difficulty is great. A successful batch lending model is the result of long-precipitated, but also requires a relatively stable market environment, but also very difficult to guard against systemic risk, I can not say, not a conclusion. But we here tentatively identified Ali financial success, in large areas of C2C support a large number of customers, but in general, the scale can do much? In fact, is a big question mark. Said earlier, more than 300 people finance team, broke a world where trillions of electricity providers made a balance of less than fifty million in size, the remaining logic that there are actually two can talk, first is electricity providers continue upward, you can do 2 trillion, so that the balance can continue upward. The second change is actually a perfect model of the customer's credit system, and then Nike Air LeBron EE let the balance upward. The first argument, I was denied that possibility is not really up to the two trillion electricity supplier, and is certainly not a dominant Ali. The second argument, in fact, is positively correlated with risk, because once the model has a huge business risk, not only can not bring high returns to Ali, Ali's hand will pull down profits. For the overall market valuation Ali difficulty are great. Uncertainty is the biggest venture inside. Called Ye Alibaba qijianxiatianshan vision or the nearest 25 business groups or, in fact, are the key behind Ma day vertical Wizards good at depicting conceived blueprint, he must continue to tell investors that his The idea is so great, how tricky, and then continue to make investments to follow up on the outer Nike Air Yeezy II Ma industry and industry in the eyes of die-hard fans, all firmly believe that Ma Nike Air Jordan 10 can make a different model to the Internet, but the future How, in fact, it depends on what moment do. I combed Ma's logic is actually a more reliable impression that Ma wanted to dig out as soon as an investor want it, but Ma but give a reasonable business model drawn up or valuation models come out. From a company's strategic vision to the small but beautiful, from the platform strategy to Ali finance, investors are in fact he wanted to see his vision of a better future blueprint. And everything is high valuation for IPO. Ma is a capital master, and had tasted the sweetness from the capital. B2B less than twenty billion market capitalization after the listing of up to over 200 billion Hong Kong dollars, then slid 90%, why would come 2000 Hong Kong dollars, when this proposition in Alibaba listed, I asked, a B2B, what can go to 200 billion? There are two reasons behind, one aspect of course is related to Ma own rally, with investors constantly depict the grand blueprint for the future of Ali Baba. Ma's eloquence, compared to the year of Zhuge Liang, definitely worse. On the other hand of course, with continued stakeholder organizations behind the boost a relationship. Capital is the presence of short-term profit-driven, especially for things uncertain future, the moment of profit is always the first and only time, is the final test. As the tide receded behind Alibaba discount delisting, in fact, a large number of investors heavy losses. Ma is now the overall listing plan, no doubt have to start a new IPO, less than six months whether it was aborted qijianxiatianshan strategy, or now 25 strategic business groups, in fact, are thinking about Ma A core proposition: what investors like to hear the story of what investors like to hear the story, he would do anything to investors, the people believe that Ma and even Ali Ali Taobao hand, what should be done can be a thing?. The key is to let them know what to do in the end. This proposition is very interesting, Taobao is not a profitable gold, but Taobao who can dig a lot of gold, and now the proposition is that two, now Taobao can do? To make money, rather than conceptual. There is also a proposition that Taobao can do much?! If only addresses the first problem, then with Taobao shrink, then is doomed to fail, if only to solve the second, then always is the continuous investment, but also do not form a high valuation. Alibaba is such a thing should be. Via i dark horse By Jiangnan cynical Original: http:? //jnfq.licai.so/ Post = 480