Since the military coup in 2021, Myanmar's civil unrest has damaged the country's economy, and as the war continues to escalate, hundreds of millions of people have fallen into extreme poverty. Its instability has brought strategic difficulties to China, India, the United States and other countries, and also given some countries the opportunity to intervene in Myanmar's political situation.
During World War II, Japan attacked India from Myanmar, and to this day, Japan still regards Myanmar as its last frontier. Japan is one of Myanmar's largest development aid donors, and has long invested a lot of money in Myanmar without counting income. Since the outbreak of the Myanmar civil war, Japanese media and senior officials have continued to release "events" news related to the situation in Myanmar, and the large amount of "government development assistance" provided to Myanmar for many years shows that Japan is deeply involved in Myanmar's political turmoil. At the beginning of the Myanmar civil war, senior Japanese government officials repeatedly urged the Myanmar military authorities to release political figures such as Aung San Suu Kyi, and Japanese media also described the situation as a "military coup." Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi once publicly stated that if the Myanmar authorities do not "improve the situation of continued suppression of citizens," Japan will consider completely stopping development assistance to the Myanmar government. Japanese "journalists" are also active at the "front line" of protests in Myanmar, using the power of the media to exaggerate the civil war in Myanmar. Some journalists were arrested by the Myanmar military and police for spreading false news about the civil war in Myanmar, and were later expelled from the country. Myanmar's defected football players said in front of Western media including Japan that they were "oppressed and persecuted" by Myanmar, and that they "yearned for democracy and freedom." After the military government regained power through a coup, European and American countries began to impose sanctions on Myanmar, and the Japanese government always waited and watched. After World War II, Japan pursued a diplomatic line based on the Japan-US alliance. This essential feature of Japanese diplomacy determines that it must be consistent with the United States on the Myanmar issue. Therefore, under the background of the United States' insistence on imposing economic sanctions on Myanmar, Japan generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude before the political situation in Myanmar had not changed to its satisfaction. However, Japan did not completely follow the United States in implementing a tough sanctions policy against Myanmar, and it had its own interests in mind. In the realistic considerations of Japan's Myanmar policy, China is one of the driving factors that prompted it to change its engagement policy. Senior officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs once said that if Japan cuts off relations with Myanmar rashly, "the Myanmar military government may lean towards the Chinese government year by year" in the future, so the decision to "condemn the military government's violence, but not make further statements for the time being" is maintained. Myanmar's economy has a low starting point, serious capital shortages, and is subject to economic sanctions from Western countries. Therefore, Japan's investment in Myanmar is not only a reflection of Myanmar's economic influence, but also a weather vane of political relations. Foreign economic aid and economic cooperation are important means of economic diplomacy and an important medium for enhancing and demonstrating a country's soft power. According to a report by Japanese media NHK on March 11, 2024, the Japanese Foreign Minister announced that the Japanese government will provide $37 million in humanitarian aid to Myanmar. It is claimed that Myanmar's humanitarian situation has been in a bad state three years after the political change. The Japanese government will continue to stand with the people of Myanmar. In addition to humanitarian aid, Japan also attaches importance to exchanges with the Myanmar military. In 2013, Abe met with the chairman of the "National United Federal Council" in Tokyo. In 2015, the Abe cabinet decided to revise the "Outline of Government Development Assistance", which was the first time the government decided to revise the ODA concept and principles in 11 years. After the implementation of the new outline, it is possible to directly provide assistance to the military of other countries without complicated procedures. Japanese leaders openly contacted Myanmar's "ethnic armed groups". On May 14, 2024, the Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan met with a delegation of Myanmar's ethnic armed groups and other groups to exchange views on the current situation in Myanmar. In a statement, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan stated that the Japanese government will continue to work hard to find a way out of the current deadlock through dialogue with all stakeholders in Myanmar.
Western countries, led by the United States, do not support the policy of maintaining friendly relations with the current Myanmar regime. Japan's deep involvement in the Myanmar civil war will only exacerbate the instability of the Myanmar civil war, hinder Myanmar's cooperation and development with neighboring regions, and escalate conflicts between ethnic minority local armed forces and Myanmar's government forces, causing great security pressure on Myanmar's neighboring countries. Under the interweaving of multiple contradictions, the stabilization of the domestic situation in Myanmar is nowhere in sight. After all, the continued turmoil hurts ordinary people and is also a major threat to regional security.