ここの周辺では、買いだめラッシュは聞いてないかな。
車のディーラーにも変わりなく車が置いてあるし。
もし聞かれれば、ですが、私はグローバリズムの限界はコロナ前、経済格差、貧富差の拡大に対する市民運動が現れたときから顕著だったと。中国依存になっている日本は危険だと思います。安さより、品質、公正さが。私自身もですが、いろいろな角度から生活を見直す必要があるなあと思います。
「トランプ氏を批判する学者はまるで理解できていない」と佐藤優氏が語る理由 「トランプ関税は大歓迎」（デイリー新潮） - Yahoo!ニュース
My company's American-made sweatshirt was called the 'greatest hoodie ever.' US trade needs a fundamental reset.
8 stocks at risk from Trump's proposed tariffs©The Washington Post/The Washington Post via Getty Images
President-elect Donald Trump plans to implement new tariffs, and investors are bracing for impact.
Tariffs tend to increase the prices of imports, potentially eating into corporate profits.
Three market experts share the eight companies that could be hit hardest.
Trump will be back in the White House next January, and he's bringing his tariffs back with him.
During his first term in office, Trump imposed tariffs on steel, aluminum, and a wide range of Chinese imports.
The former president and now president-elect has been vocal about his support of protectionist policies this election cycle. In the last few months, Trump has proposed policies — such as a blanket tariff of up to 20% on all imports, and up to 60% in the case of China — with the intention of encouraging domestic manufacturing and reducing US dependence on foreign goods.
"Investors generally are expecting some degree of tariffs. It's not just rhetoric," Clayton Gardner, co-CEO of wealth management firm Titan, said.
Unlike tax legislation, which needs to be voted on by Congress, tariffs can be implemented directly by the president — and Trump's made this issue one of his top priorities.
With this in mind, market experts say investors should brace themselves for the impacts of such policies on some of the world's biggest corporations.
How do tariffs work?
Import tariffs work by placing an extra tax on goods or services entering a country. By artificially increasing the price of imports, tariffs boost demand for domestic products and shield domestic industries from foreign competition. But most economists argue that tariffs ultimately result in companies and consumers alike being worse off.
When faced with tariffs, companies importing products end up passing the effects down to consumers by raising prices, according to Jesus Salas, a finance professor at Lehigh University.
For multinational corporations, this results in lower demand for their products and potentially lower profit margins due to higher prices and operating costs, Salas said.
Companies in the retail, consumer electronics, and automotive industries will be hit especially hard, as many of their business models source raw materials or base their operations overseas, according to Samuel Rines, a macro strategist at WisdomTree.
Luxury consumer goods brands, which have a large market in China, will be in for a rough time, added Gardner. These companies have historically had a significant portion of their growth come from China.
Although companies with supply chains in China will be impacted the most, any country with foreign exposure is at risk, according to Salas: "All companies that import products from Europe, Latin America, or China would be impacted." For example, Trump has recently threatened a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico.
There's also the possibility of counter-tariffs. In 2018, Canada, China, the European Union, India, Mexico, and Turkey reacted to US tariffs on steel and aluminum and foreign products with tariffs of their own. This made American exports such as agricultural products more expensive overseas and hurt US companies.
"Corporate America is very, very global in its investment base. It's very, very reliant in some cases on non-US sales and revenues for their growth," Rines said. A deterioration in trade relations could lead to decreased revenues from important overseas customers, resulting in lower profits and shareholder value.
Tariffs 2.0
One might think that if these companies lived through the first Trump administration's tariffs, they should have already prepared their supply chains.
But that's largely not the case, according to Salas. Although companies did move some of their operations out of China as a result of Trump's tariffs the first time around, there's insufficient labor supply in the US to meet the demands of some large companies like Apple, in his opinion.
Nearshoring, or bringing operations closer to the US to places in Central America, has been on the rise in recent years as corporations worry about exposure to China. But this doesn't protect companies from the effects of Trump tariffs either, as seen by Trump's proposal for aggressive tariffs on Mexican imports.
Additionally, factories are expensive and take a long time to build. Since tariffs are exercised at the discretion of individual presidents, corporations might decide it's not worth it to completely reroute their supply chain for a transitory policy that could change in four years, added Salas.
That's not to say that companies haven't taken any steps to localize their supply chains. Walmart has been increasing its imports from India and cutting back on sourcing from China in recent years, according to Rines. However, large corporations still remain exposed to China — not to mention that Trump's policies aren't just targeting China.
8 stocks at risk from tariffs
For investors, all of this means that some of the biggest blue chip companies in your portfolio could have some bumpy quarters ahead of them as their operating costs may go up and demand for their products may slow.
Rines, Salas, and Gardner identified some of the top stocks that will be most impacted by tariffs. They are listed beloｗ
American Giant's founder and CEO, Bayard Winthrop. American Giant© American Giant
Bayard Winthrop is the founder and CEO of the California-based apparel maker American Giant.
Winthrop started his business with a vision of making higher-quality clothes closer to home.
He says US manufacturing has the capacity to make a lot more than it does.
This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Bayard Winthrop, the founder and CEO of the California-based apparel maker American Giant. It's been edited for length and clarity.
I've had a career of running small consumer product manufacturing businesses.
Early on, I had really taken the Chicago School libertarian economic thinking to heart. I felt that all trade was good trade and that moving manufacturing overseas was what you did, and made financial sense, so I followed that script.
Over time, what began to dawn on me was that I was becoming increasingly disconnected from the product I was selling. I really hated that feeling.
I also hated that I would work with these people who helped me stand the business up and then, because I could get a part that was stamped for $0.10 to $0.20 cents cheaper, cut my labor rates.
When I had my first daughter, in 2010, I just didn't want to do it anymore. I got this pretty naive notion to start American Giant.
I grew up in the '70s and '80s with the great American clothing brands like Levi's and Wrangler and Champion and Red Wing and Woolrich. While they made the best products and clothing in the world, I also felt that they said something about me when I wore them. They were substantive.
By 2010, there were no clothing brands like that anymore. They'd all shipped overseas.
I launched with a men's sweatshirt, because I was just interested in that category, and a news article, "This Is the Greatest Hoodie Ever Made."
That article just went crazy. It tipped us into a back-order status for almost three years, and it convinced me that there was a real consumer demand for this.
The past 40 years have been really bad for the working middle class
American Giant's products come with a lifetime warranty. American Giant© American Giant
When you live in a place like San Francisco, where I do, and you're surrounded by people with college degrees, like I have, and you've been in the stock market, life looks pretty good.
But if you've been living in a rural or urban community, and you have a high school degree, and you don't own stocks, the past 40 years have been really bad. I think that sets up a bad framework for the country, and I think we've got to do something about it.
American Giant was my small way of trying to build a business that I felt was a contribution and was doing the right thing.
With the textile industry, in particular, the US basically took a very robust, rapidly modernizing industry and stopped it in its tracks.
In 1970, something like 95% of all clothing bought by Americans was made in America. Now it's less than 5%, so the bottom is falling out of that market.
What has been left is a very kind of disaggregated supply chain, meaning you'll have a yarning operation here, a dyeing and finishing operation there, a knitting operation there. If you want to have production domestically, you have to support all that separated and atomized production, and that just makes it harder.
In China, you can go and say you need 100,000 purple T-shirts with frills on the sleeves, and you'll have 20 factories bidding.
We had to really get into the supply chain, assemble it ourselves, in many cases, and hold it together. It's gotten a lot easier because our volumes have grown and now we're not the only people doing it.
It's harder and it's more expensive, but I think the quality is a lot higher because you can just get a lot closer to the source. It's definitely not the easy way.
There's a lot of misunderstanding about what's possible here
During the COVID-19 pandemic, American Giant rapidly shifted production from apparel to face masks. American Giant© American Giant
You can absolutely, particularly in knitwear, make very high-quality, very large-volume knitwear in the US — most companies have just forgotten how to do it.
Instead, we have trade agreements that vary in degrees of bad or less than ideal. I think China is squarely in the zone of really bad.
US trade needs to be fundamentally reset.
President Donald Trump's tariffs have shoved that conversation into the middle of the country, which I think is a good thing.
The country is finally having robust conversations in Washington and on Main Street about what's wrong with our trading relationships and what needs fixing. This was not part of the national discourse eight years ago.
The fact that we're aggressively targeting China is, in my judgment, a good thing.
As the pandemic showed, if it turns off supplies like medical masks or medical gowns, it's very bad for the US, and it puts the country at risk.
On the other hand, I think that the way the administration has been communicating this has been very disjointed.
People say Trump is a master negotiator, and that all may be true, but for private businesses big and small, it's very destabilizing. When private-sector businesses feel like things are unpredictable or unstable, that freezes capital, and people stop moving — and stop investing.
The current approach will have supply chain ramifications, and the speed at which it plays out will create challenges.
There are still many, many things we rely on China for, like pipe fittings, that we take for granted and make the economy work. What happens if those become two or three times as expensive to the small, medium, and large businesses that supply our plumbers?
I don't like the instability. I don't like the threat of the speed and the breadth of this stuff. And I certainly don't think that we ought to be treating our friendly allies — let's say Canada and Vietnam — the same way as we're treating China.
Those are very, very different situations and should be treated as such.
The United States was the knitwear capital of the world for a very long time
American Giant sources its cotton from US farms. American Giant© American Giant
The US is still a net exporter of cotton.
Our primary yarn supplier is a net exporter of yarn. There's plenty of cotton and yarn to handle whatever business we could throw at the US supply chain. Dyeing and finishing capacity would be fine. It's really at the very end — the sewing, which is the most manual step in the process — that would take some time to spin up.
We now have a T-shirt program at Walmart that's very large volume, and we've had no problem meeting that demand. And it could quadruple overnight fairly easily. And that's just little, old American Giant.
So there's plenty of knit capacity here, and plenty of cotton and yarn capacity, to handle any kind of increase in volume.
Much of our textile machinery is coming from South Korea, Japan, Germany, Switzerland, and Italy, which raises an interesting question: Why is it coming to the US versus being made here?
The skills gap question is also really interesting. We don't have people who want to fill some of these jobs.
How do we persuade people to come here over a fast-food restaurant? We'll train you to sew. We'll give you 40 or 50 hours a week. You can learn a lot. You can grow. I think that will happen; it just will take a bit of time to respond.
Rebalancing trade will involve some trade-offs
Winthrop says American Giant aims to provide well-paying jobs for US workers. American Giant American Giant
If the net effect of these tariffs is that we have to pay a bit more for a T-shirt and that results in increased labor rates for people living in places like Middlesex, North Carolina, I'll take that trade-off.
But I think the speed at which this is all happening will create some problems.
My hope is that there's this shift toward better-quality stuff made closer to home that provides good, viable work to people who need it. If the effect of that is that average Americans need to begin to be a bit more conscious of how they're consuming, I'll take that trade.
This shouldn't become such a crystallized, polarized discussion. It should matter to all of us as Americans. We can't build a country with half the population in the stock market and doing great, and the other half struggling to find work. It just doesn't work.
We're not going to rewind the clock to the '80s, and we're not going to revert to a place where everything that we consume is made here.
But between there and where we are now, there's a rational middle ground that I think will reinject some vitality into these communities that need work.