スポーツ実況と同じで、
開票実況も、
例え録画していても、
実際に後から見るというものではないですねーー。
ということで、深夜を過ぎて、
１時近くまで、
テレビを見てしまいました。
（そうなんですよ、まだ我が家にはテレビ放送があるんです）
開票前の市場調査の平均を見たら、接戦のままでした。
掛け率に関しては、トランプ氏がいくらか上がっていました。
（その後、開票結果後の６日に見たら、
トランプ氏が９０％台、ハリス氏が一桁になっていたんだけど、
どういうふうに結果が出されているのでしょうね？）
２０２０年はなかなか結果がはっきりしなかったので、
今回のスピーディな展開にびっくり。
地元の州での選挙結果はまもなく出て、
それぞれスピーチがあって、
それを見たりして、
真夜中過ぎても
まだ集計が終わっていなかったのですが、
勝敗はついていたようです。
ワシントンDCでのハリス氏の集会でも、
ハリス氏がスピーチをすることはないから、
皆に帰るように、とのアナウンスが。
フロリダのトランプ氏の集会は、実況では
まだまだ人がたくさんいました。
（背広やネクタイで、会社帰り？フォーマルな風で驚きました）
さてさて、
テレビの中継、
郡ごとに集計が出てきて、
どこをどう投票数が出たら、
どちらに有利かなど、
詳しく解説が入るので、
興味深くて見続けてしまいます。
２０２０年のときに、
詳しい説明があって驚いたのですが、
アメリカ全体で、郡ごとの結果での地図でみると、
ほとんどが赤色なんですね。
ほんの少しの青色の都市部の投票結果で、
その州が赤か青か決まるのです。
今回は、青色バブル、と呼んでいました。
その都市部の青色バブルがどれだけ広がるかで、
ハリス氏の優勢が決まってくるのです。
しかも出口調査で、
性別、年齢や人種の割合も出て、
投票状況が推測されています。
例えば、
ペンシルバニア州ですが、
女性票が伸びなかった、と。
敗因は、やはり、
テレビの解説でも述べられていた、
バイデン政権、現状に対する不満が大きく、
Turn the page,
A new way forward
と言っても、
ページをめくった先に何があるのか
（同じことの繰り返し？）
新しく進むという先に何があるのか、
（今の延長？）
ハリス氏は、政策面で、
バイデン政権との違いを
広く説得できなかった、ということでしょうね。
私自身で言えば、
ウクライナ危機
（の段階で）
ハマスの攻撃、
に対して、何もしなかった
（フランス、イタリア、トルコなど、プーチンと話そうとしましたよね）
戦争、破壊にページをめくった、
バイデン政権の様相は信用できません。
（紛争解決、世界平和への影響力、努力のなさも）
とはいえ、
日本の報道での世論調査を見たら、
アメリカ大統領選で重要なことに、
国際、外交、経済などが上位だったのですが、
アメリカの世論調査だと、
国際、外交面は上位には入らないのですよね。
私自身の視点は、
（アメリカに住んでいるとはいえ）日本人一般の視点だなあ、
と改めて。
| RCP Average | 10/10 - 11/4 | — | — | 48.7 | 48.6 |
Harris+0.1 |
| RCP Average - Last update: 8:00AM EST, Tuesday, November 5 | 59.7 | 38.9 |
Exit Poll Shows White Vote Surging as Black and Hispanic Voters Stay Home
An early exit poll released on Tuesday showed that while more white voters are going to the polls for the presidential election, the Black and Hispanic voter turnout is lower than in 2020.
Millions of Americans are continuing to cast their ballots on Tuesday to decide the next president of the United States with Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, facing off against former President Donald Trump, the GOP nominee.
While most polls opened at 6:00 or 7:00 a.m. local time, some polls will begin to close in the U.S. from 7 p.m. with the majority closing between 8:00 and 10:00 p.m.
The Impact
The exit poll comes as Trump has seen his approval ratings fall among white voters, according to another early exit poll.
In a worrying sign for the former president's campaign, NBC reported that Trump's support among white voters had dropped from 57 percent in 2020 to 49 percent in 2024.
However, Trump has seen his support rise over the same period among Black and Latino voters.
Support from Latino voters rose from 38 percent in 2020 to 42 percent in 2024.
Among Black voters, Trump saw his support rise from 10 percent to 14 percent over the same period.
Meanwhile, the national exit polling from Edison Research also suggested that more white women and college-educated voters are participating in the 2024 presidential election than in 2020.
The poll shows that 43 percent of voters this year have a college degree, up from 41 percent in 2020, according to Reuters. A total of 37 percent of the electorate was white women, an increase from 32 percent in 2020. Women made up 53 percent of voters overall, an increase from 52 percent in 2020.
It comes as previous polling suggests that Harris has a clear edge over Trump among college-educated voters and among women, including white women.
A margin of error was not provided for the Edison Research exit poll.
Follow Newsweek's live blog for the latest election updates.
Voters cast their ballots in individual booths at a polling location in Fairfax, Virginia, on November 5, 2024. An early exit poll on Tuesday showed less Black and Latino voters are going to the polls in this election. Photo by ALI KHALIGH/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images© Photo by ALI KHALIGH/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images
What Did the Exit Poll Reveal About Men and Women?
In a further breakdown of the early exit poll, 34 percent of voters nationwide were white men, compared with 35 percent in Edison Research's 2020 exit poll. However, white women saw an increase this year at 37 percent compared to 32 percent in 2020.
Among Black voters, there was no change in Black men as 4 percent of voters nationwide were Black men this year and in 2020. However, there was a slight decrease in Black women with 7 percent in 2024 compared with 8 percent in 2020.
Among Hispanic voters, 6 percent of voters nationwide were Hispanic men, compared with 5 percent in 2020. There was also a slight decrease in Hispanic women with 6 percent of voters this year compared with 8 percent in 2020.
chris-wallace-claims-early-exit-polling-shows-harris-needs-a-miracle/ar-AA1tzGJj?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=e0e913d374164f04ce43d6fbe018e30e&ei=41
What Does the Early Exit Poll Show?
According to preliminary results from a national exit poll conducted by Edison Research and published by Reuters, 71 percent of voters nationwide were white, compared with 67 percent in Edison Research's 2020 exit poll.While results will be updated as additional poll responses are gathered, the exit poll showed that 11 percent of voters were Black, compared with 13 percent in 2020.Meanwhile, 12 percent of voters were Hispanic in 2024, compared with 13 percent in 2020.
Chris Wallace claims early exit polling shows Harris needs a ‘miracle’
Story by Jenny Goldsberry, Washington Examiner
Early exit polls taken on Election Day found that only 7% of respondents were enthusiastic about the way things are going in the United States, an indication for CNN's Chris Wallace that Vice President Kamala Harris might need "a miracle" to pull out a victory.
CNN discussed its exit poll Tuesday amid a presidential race that is neck and neck. While Harris and former President Donald Trump have supporters turning out to vote, polling showed a large motivation for voters is their disappointment with the country.
Some 43% of respondents reported they were dissatisfied, and another 29% were angry, with a total of 72% saying they were not satisfied, let alone enthusiastic. With Harris fresh from her first term as vice president, her reputation could spell disaster for her political future.
"In conventional terms, it would be a miracle that Kamala Harris could win with that kind of headwind," Wallace said in response to the polling. "If she is able to overcome those numbers and still win this election, then she has done a remarkable job of somehow separating herself. That she is part of the solution and not a part of the problem."
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
When it comes to President Joe Biden's approval rating, which could bleed into voters' perception of Harris, only 41% of respondents approved of him, while 58% disapproved.
A RealClearPolitics poll average from Tuesday evening showed Harris with a slight 0.1-point lead nationwide. On the day Biden withdrew from the race, Trump had a 1.9-point lead.
bottom-has-started-to-fall-out-trump-campaign-aides-fret-as-election-day-confidence-has-shifted/ar-AA1tyAH6?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=a3c555accc214a8fc66ba01e9fc4b35f&ei=32
"Bottom has started to fall out": Trump campaign aides fret as Election Day "confidence has shifted"
About a dozen Donald Trump campaign aides spoke to Tim Alberta, a staff writer at The Atlantic, about how their candidate strayed from a hitherto on-message campaign to embark on a series of offensive, threatening and self-defeating verbal adventures that have left his team utterly demoralized heading into Election Day. The former president’s predictions of triumph, the reporter who has covered several Republican presidential campaigns concluded, belie a sense of panic among his subordinates that "the bottom has started to fall out" in their efforts.
bottom-has-started-to-fall-out-trump-campaign-aides-fret-as-election-day-confidence-has-shifted/ar-AA1tyAH6?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=a3c555accc214a8fc66ba01e9fc4b35f&ei=32