We think Obama has a few million thank you cards to sign.
Thats according toon 2012 election data that contains a few gems that both parties would be wise to examine.
RECOMMENDED:Among the surprises: Latinos arent as lucrative, votes-wise, as they appear to be yet. And Democrats, , shouldnt get too comfortable.
Here are four lessons the 2012 election post-mortem taught us about the minority vote:
BLACK VOTERS CAN TURN OUT
Voter ID laws. High unemployment among blacks. Low rates of registration. Lack of transportation and access to polling stations.
These were alllast year, but they didnt.
Not only did black voters turn out, their turnout levels surpassed that of whites and most minority groups, including Latinos and Asians, in last years elections.
Though we dont have exact data on the 2012 election turnout breakdown just yet, 2008 turnout data represented the smallest gap on record between whites (66.1 percent turnout) and blacks (65.2 percent turnout). According to the AP-Brookings analysis, 2 million to 5 million fewer whites voted in 2012 than in 2008, erasing that narrow lead.
LATINOS STILL LAG
The same headlines that warned of plummeting black voter turnout in 2012 also trumpeted the , which was supposed to see record levels of Latinos turn out at the polls.
They did, but not at the levels black voters turned out.
Consider this: While blacks make up aboutand 12 percent of the share of eligible voters, they represented 13 percent of the total 2012 votes cast, thereby outperforming their share.
By contrast, Latinos make up 17 percent of the population but just 11 percent of eligible voters and 10 percent of total 2012 votes cast, somewhat underperforming for their share.
In fact, Latinos probably wont surpass the share of eligible black voters until 2024, according to the AP-Brookings analysis.
Why the lower Latino rates?
Latinos may be growing fast, but theyre still , with more than one-third of Latinos (almost 35 percent) younger than the voting age of 18.
Whats more, many Latinos are not yetcitizens and therefore ineligible to vote. Nearly two-thirds of legal Mexican immigrants are not US citizens, and thats not even counting illegal and undocumented immigrants.
BUT THEIR DAY IS COMING
Acould see nearly 11 million immigrants currently here illegally become eligible for US citizenship and voting in as little as 13 years (the bill proposes a 13-year path to citizenship).
If that bill, or some iteration of it, passes, the total share of Latino voters may leap to 16 percent of the electorate by 2026. Under that same scenario, the share of eligible white voters could shrink to less than 64 percent, as the growing minority population edges out white population shares, according to the AP-Brookings report.
The 2008 election was the first year when the minority vote was important to electing a U.S. president. By 2024, their vote will be essential to victory," , a demographer at thesaid . will be looking at a landslide going into 2028 if the new Hispanic voters continue to favor Democrats.
BUT DEMOCRATS SHOULDNT REST TOO EASY
Whatever you heard about , the rainbow coalition is not a sure bet for Democrats in 2016 or for future elections.
In fact, 2012 may have been an exceptional year. Thats because Romney was an exceptionally poor candidate for motivating white voters, let alone minorities, to the polls. And Obama was an exceptionally strong candidate for motivating minorities. Thats a scenario Democrats may not be able to replicate again soon.
The 2012 turnout suggests there is an 'Obama effect' where people were motivated to support Barack Obama, , a political science professor at , told the AP. But it also means that black turnout may not always be higher, if future races aren't as salient.
Or, as GOP consultanttold the AP, It remains to be seen how successful Democrats are if you don't have Barack Obama at the top of the ticket.
Whats more, the GOP is well aware of its minority problem and working overtime to reverse it, starting with comprehensive immigration reform legislation that could make Latinos and Asians more receptive to the GOP in coming elections.
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