アメリカの景気後退：forbes引用
Will The U.S. Downturn Become A Recession?
08.01.06, 6:00 AM ET
Housing has played a far more important role in driving U.S. economic expansion than in any time in history. The combination of a slowdown in both housing and consumption could set the stage for a significant recession in 2007.
A recent Merrill Lynch survey of global investors found that 60% of respondents expected the world economy to weaken during the next 12 months. These concerns are driven by three major factors:
-- The Federal Reserve is still tightening monetary policy at a time when the yield curve is already inverted.
-- The U.S. housing market is losing momentum.
-- There is a risk that oil prices could rise further if conflict continues in the Middle East.
All U.S. recessions in the modern era have been preceded by an inverted yield curve. However, there have been occasions when the yield curve inverted without the economy plunging into recession.
Since 2000, the economy has experienced record housing inflation. There are numerous signs that the housing market is cooling:
Falling sales: New home sales are 5.9% below their level last year.
Stabilizing prices: The downturn in home sales appears to be affecting home prices.
Rising rates: The greatest risk to the housing market is rising short-term interest rates.
Market signals: There could be a significant slowing in national household borrowing during the next 12 months, and the growth rate of consumer spending could dip.
The housing sector has played a far more important role driving the recent business expansion than ever before:
Investment: The residential investment share of GDP has risen to 6.2%.
Employment: Employment in sectors dependent upon housing, real estate sales and mortgage finance has accounted for nearly 30% of all job growth since 2002.
Consumer spending: The household sector has significantly expanded its mortgage borrowing in order to finance other forms of consumption and savings. This has helped compensate for sluggish employment and personal income growth.
Real estate transactions: As a result of escalating house prices, the value of residential real estate transactions in the economy has skyrocketed.
Besides housing, retail employment figures have stoked the most significant recession concerns. Retail employment has declined in four of the past five months. This decline is problematic because every single year-on-year fall in retail employment has coincided with a recession. The downturn in the sector could persist if the housing slump depresses consumer spending.
The major offsets to housing and consumption weakness are exports and capital spending. The corporate sector is also bolstering investment because of large gains in profitability and liquid balance sheets. Yet if the economy loses momentum because of a downturn in consumption, there is a risk that firms could curtail investment.
The other risk threatening the economy is energy prices. Rising oil prices are eroding consumer incomes and intensifying pressure on the Fed to pursue a more restrictive monetary policy. Fed policy will play a critical role in determining how much the economy slows next year.
The U.S. economy is transitioning to its slowest growth rate since the 2001 recession. If the futures market's current anticipation of a broad-based housing downturn is correct, consumer spending could slacken dramatically and drag GDP growth into the 1-2% range. The Fed is unlikely to risk a full-scale recession by over-tightening, but the economy remains vulnerable to an oil price shock.
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