ファイナンシャルタイムズ:FRB0.25%利上げ発表について | なんでも日記

ファイナンシャルタイムズ:FRB0.25%利上げ発表について

Greenspan sends Treasury yields higher
>By Richard Beales in New York and Joanna Chung in London
>Published: November 3 2005 14:13 | Last updated: November 3 2005 18:39

>>

US Treasury yields jumped on Thursday, pushed higher by a warning on inflation from Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, and data showing robust services activity.

In his first Congressional testimony since June, Mr Greenspan warned “uncertainty” surrounded the inflation outlook, saying “global forces” that had subdued inflation and interest rates in spite of firm US economic growth would weaken.

“[There was] still no signal from the Fed that rates are close to or at neutral, that the Fed is getting ready to stop, or any such hint,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital.

The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index for October rose to 60, an unexpectedly big gain from the hurricane-hit level of 53.3 in September. As with the manufacturing index earlier in the week, the high prices paid component indicated building inflationary pressures.

The combined news led to selling of Treasuries, pushing 10-year yields to 4.63 per cent yesterday morning, up 2 basis points. Two-year yields rose 1.3bp to 4.445 per cent.

The bearish sentiment further weighed on eurozone government bonds, which were already subdued by fears that interest rates in the region may rise sooner than previously expected.

The European Central Bank on Thursday kept rates on hold at 2 per cent – for the 29th consecutive month – and comments by Jean-Claude Trichet, the central bank president, were less hawkish than expected.

However, he said “rates could move at any time”, compounding hawkish statements by a string of policymakers who indicated they were ready to act to head off inflationary pressures.

“The ECB definitely sounds uncomfortable about rising inflation risks and are champing at the bit for higher rates,” said David Brown, chief European economist at Bear Stearns.

In late afternoon trading, the yield on the two-year Schatz was up 0.7bp to 2.680 per cent while the 10-year Bund yield added 2.4bp to 3.469 per cent.

Meanwhile, gilts in the UK followed the other markets lower. Growing speculation that the Bank of England was unlikely to lower rates again this year put further pressure on prices.

As prices fell, the two-year gilt yield rose 3.1bp to 4.387 per cent and the 10-year gilt was yielding 4.445 per cent, up 3.7bp.

The Japanese bond market was closed on Thursday.