ファイナンシャルタイムズ:グリーンスパン議長がインフレ警告
>By Andrew Balls in Washington
>Published: November 3 2005 15:30 | Last updated: November 3 2005 23:43
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Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman, gave an upbeat assessment yesterday of the outlook for growth in the US economy but warned of an “uncertain” outlook for inflation.
In his last scheduled appearance before Congress as Fed chairman, Mr Greenspan stressed the economy’s strong momentum, in spite of the setbacks from the hurricanes on the Gulf coast, in comments that gave no indication that the central bank was close to the end of its rate-tightening cycle.
“The economic fundamentals remain firm, and the US economy appears to retain important forward momentum,” Mr Greenspan said in testimony before Congress’s joint economic committee. “Except for the hurricane effects, readings on the economy indicate a continued solid expansion of aggregate demand and production.”
Investors expect further rate increases in December and January before Mr Greenspan steps down. Ben Bernanke, the administration’s nominee to replace Mr Greenspan, is set to take over at a difficult time – monetary policy may no longer be stimulating growth in the economy. Treasuries were sold off following Mr Greenspan’s comments and data suggesting that the economy was shrugging off the impact of high energy prices. The Institute for Supply Management reported strong service sector activity in September, following its upbeat assessment of the manufacturing sector earlier in the week.
The Labor Department reported on Thursday that productivity grew at a 4.1 per cent rate in the third quarter, the biggest quarterly increase in more than a year. Unit labour costs declined 0.5 per cent, though some economists pointed to distortions in the data because of the hurricanes.
The Fed this week raised interest rates to 4 per cent – its 12th consecutive rate increase – and highlighted inflation risks. It said it expected to continue raising rates. A series of Fed policymakers have stressed cyclical risks to the inflation outlook and the danger that high energy prices will lead to a rise in core inflation and inflation expectations.
Mr Greenspan on Thursday took a step back and focused on longer-term developments. He said the fall of the Berlin Wall and the rise of China and India had led to the integration of large educated workforces into the global economy, helping restrain inflation over the past decade. This had suppressed wage growth, lowered inflation expectations and made it easier for central banks to achieve price stability.
“The suppression of cost growth and world inflation, at some point, will begin to abate,” he said. “Where the global economy is currently in this dynamic process remains open to question. But going forward, these trends will need to be monitored carefully by the world’s central banks.”
At a time when the Fed is focused on inflation risks, it sees more rate increases as necessary to slow the economy’s growth to its trend rate or below next year. Overall the economy grew at a 3.8 per cent rate in the third quarter, the 10th consecutive quarter of growth above 3 per cent. The long-run potential growth rate is often put at 3.25-3.5 per cent.
Mr Greenspan pointed to the uncertain effect of high natural gas prices on consumer spending but overall there was little discussion of downside risks to the outlook.