ファイナンシャルタイムズ組閣情報続き

Mr Koizumi's reluctance to stay in office for more than five years - he says he wants to listen to music and dine out - contrasts admirably with the tendency of his peers in other countries to overstay their welcome. Even so, his planned departure raises the question of who will take charge of his political legacy, particularly the privatisation of the giant postal savings bank, and manage Japan's imminent emergence from deflation and stagnation.

Yesterday's cabinet reshuffle went some way towards providing an answer. By choosing Shinzo Abe as his chief cabinet secretary, a prominent post in Japan, Mr Koizumi has put Mr Abe in a strong position to succeed him when the LDP makes its choice in 2006. Taro Aso, appointed foreign minister, is another possible contender. So is Sadakazu Tanigaki, who remains finance minister. Heizo Takenaka, Mr Koizumi's enforcer on financial reform, was made minister of internal affairs and communications and will remain responsible for the sale of Japan Post.

Mr Abe was a logical choice for Mr Koizumi. At 51, he is one of the youngest of the LDP's front runners. He is also the most popular. In a recent opinion poll, 55 per cent of voters said they wanted Mr Abe to be the next prime minister. Yasuo Fukuda, once seen as a possible successor to Mr Koizumi, scored only 9 per cent. Mr Fukuda was not included in the cabinet yesterday.

However, neither Mr Abe nor his rivals have said anything very revealing about their attitude to reform. Mr Koizumi's biggest achievement was to implement reforms in the face of a distinct lack of enthusiasm from his own party. It would be comforting to know that his successor intends to pull off the same trick, but there is no evidence for such a belief other than formulaic statements from all cabinet ministers in support of Mr Koizumi's reforms.

Where Mr Abe differs - especially from the dovish and now sidelined Mr Fukuda - is in his hawkish approach to foreign policy. He has been an outspoken critic of China, has supported official visits to the nationalist Yasukuni shrine that commemorates Japanese war criminals as well as other soldiers and has called for economic sanctions against North Korea over its past abductions of Japanese citizens.

If Mr Abe does eventually become prime minister following yesterday's reshuffle, he would certainly make an impact on Japanese foreign policy. Unfortunately, it is not so obvious that he would eagerly advance the economic reforms begun by Mr Koizumi