ファイナンシャルタイムズの為替情報
アメリカの貿易赤字発表により、ドル高一服。 だが、日銀の金融政策に変更がなかったため、円安ドル高の傾向は不変。
Dollar’s rally fades on trade fears The dollar staged a retreat against European currencies on Wednesday as the support initially provided by the hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve’s latest minutes faded. “The minutes were consistent with recent Fed rhetoric that had suggested the Fed was being driven more by inflation concerns, rather than the growth outlook,” said David Woo of Barclays Capital” Foreign exchange dealers were left with with no doubt that the Fed will continue to tighten interest rates after officials indicated more concern about the inflationary effect of higher oil prices over the impact on growth. “Inflationary pressures are being barely contained (and), the Fed has made it quite clear that the likely peak in the monetary cycle is once again shrouded in uncertainty,” said Simon Derrick of the Bank of New York. The dollar strengthened to $1.1952 early in the European session but retreated to $1.2027 as traders’ attention started to switch to US trade figures due today. “If it looks like the deficit is growing, Asian central banks are likely to lose appetite to continue amassing dollars,” said Adrian Foster, head of FX strategy at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. “We see the stand-off between the large trade deficit and the US interest rate advantage as the reason for the range bound euro/dollar trend of recent months.” Against the Swiss franc, the dollar touched SFr1.2949 but did not challenge resistance at SFr1.2965 and retreated to SFr1.2868, about 0.2 per cent weaker. The Bank of Japan announced an unchanged monetary policy stance after a two-day meeting and released its monthly report that indicated some modest improvement in the economy. Some dealers expect Japan to end its monetary policy of quantative easing – which floods the banking system with excess funds – in the new fiscal year, but officials appeared to be pushing back expectations of the timing of any change after the BoJ deputy governor said current policy was appropriate and core consumer price inflation had not yet turned positive. “The contrast between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan only serves to highlight the continued widening of interest rate differentials that will encourage further dollar strength against the yen,” said Derek Halpenny, senior currency economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. The dollar touched a seventeen-month high at Y114.72 but remained rangebound above Y114, trading at Y114.34 late in the european session. Traders said if the dollar established above Y114, the next target at the Y115.00 level could present a significant obstacle. The euro continued to trade in a narrow range against the yen for a second session, hovering round Y137.64. Sterling fell to $1.7390 early in the European session but rallied to $1.7504, about 0.4 per cent stronger. Expectations of a UK rate cut in November were dented by a hawkish speech by Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England. Mr King said policymakers were surprised by both the slowdown in consumer spending and the rate at which inflation had picked-up. Earnings and unemployment figures failed to provide any impetus for sterling, which remained rangebound against the euro at £0.6862. Large short positions have been built against sterling and traders said if the euro could maintain a hold above £0.6848, the next target would be £0.6930. South Africa’s central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 7 per cent today, so attention will focus on the tone of any comments after the recent rise in inflation. Although the rand’s yield advantage over the dollar is being eroded, higher precious metals prices continue to provide support. The rand weakened 0.8 per cent to R6.5642. Analysts at Calyon said the outlook for high yielding currencies was set to become more differentiated given the effects from commodity prices (oil and non-oil) and the upward move in US long bond yields. The Canadian dollar’s main driver lately has been energy prices, with recent declines in natural gas prices translating into weakness for the loonie, which traded half a cent weaker at C$1.1698. The Australian dollar traded 0.3 per cent stronger at $0.7545 but traders reported speculative long positions being closed. The Czech koruna traded at 29.595 against the euro as the currency failed to benefit from an improvement in the outlook for growth after the finance ministry upgraded 2005 and 2006 GDP forecasts. |
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