Economists believe that the use of social networks can analyze stock trends, new securities analysis mode or will be born? ! 1997, the medical school is Richard \u0026 bull; Peterson (Richard Peterson) like never seems short of money and a friend to play poker. The penny stock transactions friend (referring to a low of less than one dollar per share, the amount of stock \u0026 mdash; \u0026 mdash; translator's note) earned pours. One day, he was driving a brand new Jeep appeared in front of the garage, which proves that he is doing well. When Peterson about his initial contact with the world of finance experience to say: \u0026 ldquo; he was merely a rumor on the tracking network only. \u0026 Rdquo; As the Internet from the late 1990s to develop basic chat room, Peterson understand that he wants to use social media to do to gain market advantage. Doing a psychiatrist for 11 years after his friend and colleague from raised $ 1 million, the establishment of a hedge fund, and subsequently raised $ 750,000 to support the establishment of a hedge fund technology companies MarketPsych. Headquartered in Santa Monica, California MarketPsy Capital Fund uses Server Tracker chat room, blog, website and microblogging to determine market sentiment on thousands of companies, and Peterson will be traded in the stock market where the number of enterprises stock.
This may sound like science fiction, but in terms of shocking to invade, but the use of social media to predict the future, the financial sector has become popular pursuit. Tracking factors affect people's decision-making has never been so easy. People search at Google (Google) on answers to questions on the microblogging post thoughts, posted on the blog and Facebook own findings. Now, some entrepreneurs are designing algorithms to identify patterns, make predictions, to outperform the stock market purposes. Peterson fund initially seemed to do this. Founded two years ago, MarketPsy Capital return rate of 40%. He said: \u0026 ldquo; then everything seems very straightforward, we go on the road to success. \u0026 Rdquo; but by 2010, this fund lost 8%. He said: \u0026 ldquo; when the market sentiment turned from fear to recover, our model does not grasp this trend, because the model is based in fear.
That is the trend of Capital tough times. \u0026 Rdquo; associate professor of information sciences and computing technology at Indiana University (Indiana University) John \u0026 bull; Boren (Johan Bollen) have more of this skepticism, his poor investment performance offers another explanation. He asked: \u0026 ldquo; How do you filter spam accuracy even up to 80%, you still have a 20% chance that a big mistake, this is enough to make you go bankrupt?. \u0026 Rdquo; Professor Boren believes that research from the Internet community as a whole emotional states really valuable. But tracking people on social media forums on a company's views are not so useful. He explained: \u0026 ldquo; Just because information related information does not represent predictive. \u0026 Rdquo; his research to \u0026 ldquo; mood using Twitter to predict market \u0026 rdquo; for the title, text analysis attempts to micro-blog posts sentiment classification. The results in 2011 published in 'Journal of Computational Science' (Journal of Computational Science). The results revealed that the change of network state of calm is reflected in changes in the market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow Jones Industrial Average) Change has a strong predictive correlation. Although he questioned the choice of stock through social media approach, but Professor Boren believes the overall sentiment analysis of Internet can produce significant gains, just as the same as the California Gold Rush. He set up a Guidewave business, trying to find \u0026 ldquo; \u0026 rdquo ;. GOLD He said: \u0026 ldquo; We are looking for the hidden social undercurrents. \u0026 Rdquo; in a study on the occasion Prof. Bollen, Bernardo cosplay uniform HP Labs research division of HP (HP Labs) social computing, head of research \u0026 bull; Huberman (Bernardo Huberman) began investigating people put their attention on the web Where. Huberman professor of 'pages rule' (The Laws of the Web), a book he was interested in the relationship with the real world things microblogging release occurs between people. He called \u0026 ldquo; \u0026 rdquo ;. attention economics He said: \u0026 ldquo; I want to find some very precise things, look at our prediction is correct, so we chose the movie and box office receipts for the study. \u0026 Rdquo; Huberman found in a film before release, through analysis published microblogging people to predict box office revenues, more accurate than the Hollywood Stock Exchange (Hollywood Stock Exchange), which is a performance-related futures and large which, by the broker Cantor \u0026 bull; Fitzgerald (Cantor Fitzgerald) ownership. Not surprisingly, the release of the results of the paper 'Use social media to predict the future' (Predicting the Future with Social Media) has been eager to expand product demand manipulated Twitter advertiser concerns. But it also inspired a number of Dutch entrepreneurs to set up a similar price movements to predict predictor. In the Netherlands the social media monitoring companies Clipit angel investors with the help of the idea turned into a prototype.
One of four founders Vincent \u0026 bull; 范莱 text (Vincent van Leeuwen) indicates: \u0026 ldquo; we mainly use Twitter, because it is in real time, access data more easily, and most have interpretation value. \u0026 Rdquo; their startups called SNTMNT, Twitter analysis provide retail investors, is currently signed an agreement with a Dutch bank. Fan Lai Wen said that other interested companies, including online brokerage firms. Fan Lai Wen adds: \u0026 ldquo; they are always looking for new tricks to encourage customers to buy and sell stocks. \u0026 Rdquo; at the same time, in Paris, the three have a behavioral finance (using psychology to improve investors' decisions) background trader operates IIBremans, which is the French CAC 40 index provide analysis of business sentiment. Over the years, Phillips \u0026 bull; Deb Rem (Phillippe de Brem) and Guillaume \u0026 bull; Diman (Guillaume Dumans) each morning, before they start work as a trader, spent two hours browsing the web French stock bullish or bearish.
They will publish a newsletter, judgment day, the stock Cosplay Costumes for sale market may go. Now, the company provides an algorithm-based cattle - bear market index, called the L \u0026 rsquo; indicateur IIBremans. Diman said that during the financial crisis, the dismal returns of the fund manager, \u0026 ldquo; you want something fresh, something unusual. \u0026 Rdquo; But skeptics said that if all of this sounds like alchemy, like \u0026 mdash; \u0026 mdash; the garbage into gold on the Internet, it is because this is indeed the case.
Professor and Professor Huberman Boren questioned monitoring only a subset of Twitter on (such as the financial sector), in the end how much value. Professor Boren indicates: \u0026 ldquo; from the point of view of the surface, this is an obvious thing. But you have to ask: why would someone for a stock made to it, why the microblogging more valuable than the sailor moon wigs other indicators \u0026 rdquo; he adds, if you understand that the market insider, certainly will not be shared with others?. Professor Huberman echoed this view: Use social media to measure public sentiment, it is only useful in the overall sense. \u0026 Ldquo; unless George \u0026 bull; Soros (George Soros) and Warren \u0026 bull; Buffett (Warren Buffett) in micro-Bo, or Twitter users are not those who can influence the market trend. \u0026 Rdquo; Cosplay Costumes viai black horse BY 'Financial Times'