バーナンキさんの15年前の日銀に対する見解は不変です
秘書です。
日銀は、バーナンキさんが昔の考え方を捨てて日銀に近づいてきたようにみえているのかもしれませんが、バーナンキさんは15年前と全く考え方を変えていないようです。
Bernanke Takes On Krugman’s Criticism He Ignores His Own Advice
By Jeff Kearns and Craig Torres - Apr 26, 2012 1:00 PM GMT bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-25/bernanke-rejects-criticism-he-ignores-his-own-policy-advice.html
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke took on Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman yesterday and called his advice to reduce unemployment by boosting inflation “reckless.”
“The question is, does it make sense to actively seek a higher inflation rate in order to achieve” a slightly faster reduction in the unemployment rate, Bernanke said yesterday to reporters after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting. “The view of the committee is that that would be very reckless.”
Krugman, whom Bernanke hired at Princeton University in 2000 when he was chairman of the economics department, said in a New York Times Magazine article that the Fed should raise its 2 percent inflation target to cut unemployment. Such a policy shift would align with Bernanke’s comment in 2000 that the Bank of Japan (8301) should pursue faster inflation to escape deflation, he said. Japan’s consumer prices fell 0.2 percent that year.
“While the Fed went to great lengths to rescue the financial system, it has done far less to rescue workers,” Krugman wrote. “Higher expected inflation would aid an economy” because it would persuade investors and businesses “that sitting on cash is a bad idea,” Krugman said.
Bernanke, during yesterday’s press conference in Washington, denied that the FOMC’s policy contradicts his prior academic work. The chairman spoke in response to a reporter’s question referring to Krugman’s story, titled “Earth to Ben Bernanke,” published April 24. The article cited “the divergence between what Professor Bernanke advocated and what Chairman Bernanke has actually done.”
‘Absolutely Incorrect’
“So there’s this view circulating that the views I expressed about 15 years ago on the Bank of Japan are somehow inconsistent with our current policies,” Bernanke said. “That is absolutely incorrect. My views and our policies today are completely consistent with the views that I held at that time.”
Krugman didn’t respond to telephone and email messages to his publicist, Sarah Fogarty.
Bernanke said the main difference between Japan’s economic slump 15 years ago and the U.S. today is that Japan was in deflation and the world’s largest economy isn’t, with an inflation rate that’s close to the Fed’s objective.
The U.S. today doesn’t face a deflation threat, in part because the Fed expanded its balance sheet to $2.88 trillion through $2.3 trillion in bond purchases, Bernanke said. The FOMC today raised its estimate for the personal consumption expenditures price index for this year to 1.9 percent to 2 percent versus 1.4 percent to 1.8 percent in January.
Inflation, Deflation
Bernanke said pushing the increase in prices above the Fed’s 2 percent goal would risk undermining inflation expectations and erode the central bank’s credibility as a force for stable prices.
As a result, “we would in fact have less rather than more flexibility to use accommodative monetary policy to achieve our employment goals,” he said.
“We, the Federal Reserve, have spent 30 years building up credibility for low and stable inflation, which has proved extremely valuable in that we’ve been able to take strong accommodative actions in the last four, five years,” Bernanke told reporters. “To risk that asset for what I think would be quite tentative and perhaps doubtful gains on the real side would be, I think, an unwise thing to do.”
Krugman, who won the 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics, said in a blog posting on the New York Times’ opinion page yesterday that Bernanke’s response was “disappointing stuff.”
Krugman, 59, has previously proposed higher inflation to boost employment and criticized Bernanke in a Bloomberg News interview last year for not taking more aggressive action.
Professor Bernanke
Bernanke, 58, joined Princeton, in New Jersey, as a professor in 1985, according to the central bank’s website. He was a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors from 2002 to 2005 and chairman of President George W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers from 2005 to 2006, when he took office as Fed Chairman.
“Krugman’s views are not closely related to the reality in which Bernanke is forced to operate,” said Anthony Karydakis, an adjunct professor of economics at New York University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business and former chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “One of them has the responsibility of steering the economy through treacherous waters and the other has the luxury of sitting in his office and sending articles to the New York Times,” Karydakis said.
ＦＲＢ議長会見（１）ゼロ金利継続、判断の指針を検討公開日時
2012/4/26 7:59 日経新聞
http://www.nikkei.com/markets/features/12.aspx?g=DGXNASGN2600A_26042012000000
●学者時代の見解と現在の姿勢の差について
日銀の政策について15年前に私が示した見解は現在の自分の見解と異なるとの批判を受けるがそれはまったく間違いだ。今の金融政策は15年前に示した見解と首尾一貫している。当時、私は日銀の金融政策に関連して２つの点について見解を述べた。１つは、確固とした意志を持つ中央銀行はデフレをなくすための政策を実施する必要があるということ。２つ目が、短期金利がゼロになっても中央銀行は金融緩和を実施することができるということだ。
米国では2010年の終盤にはデフレのリスクが多少あったものの、（量的緩和をつかった）バランスシートの調整により目標の２％にインフレ率を近づけることができたおかげで、現在の米国にはデフレはない。15年前の日本と今の米国の決定的な違いは、日本はデフレで、デフレとリセッション下ではさらなるデフレを招くという状況だった。
現在の米国で追加緩和は必要かどうかは、失業率の低下を早めるために多少のインフレをまねいても追加緩和を正当化すべきかどうかを問うことになる。ＦＯＭＣは、それは非常に無謀なことという見解を持っている。我々ＦＲＢは過去30年間にわたり、安定的で低水準の物価上昇率を維持することで信頼を獲得してきた。過去４～５年間にわたる金融政策も不安定な物価上昇を招くことなく積極的な緩和を実施することができた。一時的な効果を狙う緩和によって、我々のそうした財産をリスクにさらすのは愚かなことだ。
→バーナンキさんは15年前の、日銀の政策に対する「確固とした意志を持つ中央銀行はデフレをなくすための政策を実施する必要がある」「短期金利がゼロになっても中央銀行は金融緩和を実施することができる」という考え方を変えていないようです。日銀は変ったのでしょうか？日銀は変わらず、バーナンキさんが日銀をまねていると？
再送：金融緩和に副作用や限界、商品市況や金融システム安定に配慮必要＝白川日銀総裁
2012年 03月 26日 13:57 JST
http://jp.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idJPTK076475220120326
・・・
なお、白川総裁は講演の冒頭で、バブル崩壊後の日本の低成長が「大胆な政策を日銀が迅速に実行しなかったためだ」と片づけられることが多かったと指摘。住宅バブル崩壊後に日米の採った政策が似ている点を挙げ、日銀がゼロ金利政策や量的緩和政策、時間軸などを打ち出した際「同じような政策を数年後にＦＲＢが採用することになるなどとは私自身、想像もしていなかった」と述べた。
日銀は、バーナンキさんが昔の考え方を捨てて日銀に近づいてきたようにみえているのかもしれませんが、バーナンキさんは15年前と全く考え方を変えていないようです。
Bernanke Takes On Krugman’s Criticism He Ignores His Own Advice
By Jeff Kearns and Craig Torres - Apr 26, 2012 1:00 PM GMT bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-25/bernanke-rejects-criticism-he-ignores-his-own-policy-advice.html
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke took on Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman yesterday and called his advice to reduce unemployment by boosting inflation “reckless.”
“The question is, does it make sense to actively seek a higher inflation rate in order to achieve” a slightly faster reduction in the unemployment rate, Bernanke said yesterday to reporters after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting. “The view of the committee is that that would be very reckless.”
Krugman, whom Bernanke hired at Princeton University in 2000 when he was chairman of the economics department, said in a New York Times Magazine article that the Fed should raise its 2 percent inflation target to cut unemployment. Such a policy shift would align with Bernanke’s comment in 2000 that the Bank of Japan (8301) should pursue faster inflation to escape deflation, he said. Japan’s consumer prices fell 0.2 percent that year.
“While the Fed went to great lengths to rescue the financial system, it has done far less to rescue workers,” Krugman wrote. “Higher expected inflation would aid an economy” because it would persuade investors and businesses “that sitting on cash is a bad idea,” Krugman said.
Bernanke, during yesterday’s press conference in Washington, denied that the FOMC’s policy contradicts his prior academic work. The chairman spoke in response to a reporter’s question referring to Krugman’s story, titled “Earth to Ben Bernanke,” published April 24. The article cited “the divergence between what Professor Bernanke advocated and what Chairman Bernanke has actually done.”
‘Absolutely Incorrect’
“So there’s this view circulating that the views I expressed about 15 years ago on the Bank of Japan are somehow inconsistent with our current policies,” Bernanke said. “That is absolutely incorrect. My views and our policies today are completely consistent with the views that I held at that time.”
Krugman didn’t respond to telephone and email messages to his publicist, Sarah Fogarty.
Bernanke said the main difference between Japan’s economic slump 15 years ago and the U.S. today is that Japan was in deflation and the world’s largest economy isn’t, with an inflation rate that’s close to the Fed’s objective.
The U.S. today doesn’t face a deflation threat, in part because the Fed expanded its balance sheet to $2.88 trillion through $2.3 trillion in bond purchases, Bernanke said. The FOMC today raised its estimate for the personal consumption expenditures price index for this year to 1.9 percent to 2 percent versus 1.4 percent to 1.8 percent in January.
Inflation, Deflation
Bernanke said pushing the increase in prices above the Fed’s 2 percent goal would risk undermining inflation expectations and erode the central bank’s credibility as a force for stable prices.
As a result, “we would in fact have less rather than more flexibility to use accommodative monetary policy to achieve our employment goals,” he said.
“We, the Federal Reserve, have spent 30 years building up credibility for low and stable inflation, which has proved extremely valuable in that we’ve been able to take strong accommodative actions in the last four, five years,” Bernanke told reporters. “To risk that asset for what I think would be quite tentative and perhaps doubtful gains on the real side would be, I think, an unwise thing to do.”
Krugman, who won the 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics, said in a blog posting on the New York Times’ opinion page yesterday that Bernanke’s response was “disappointing stuff.”
Krugman, 59, has previously proposed higher inflation to boost employment and criticized Bernanke in a Bloomberg News interview last year for not taking more aggressive action.
Professor Bernanke
Bernanke, 58, joined Princeton, in New Jersey, as a professor in 1985, according to the central bank’s website. He was a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors from 2002 to 2005 and chairman of President George W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers from 2005 to 2006, when he took office as Fed Chairman.
“Krugman’s views are not closely related to the reality in which Bernanke is forced to operate,” said Anthony Karydakis, an adjunct professor of economics at New York University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business and former chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “One of them has the responsibility of steering the economy through treacherous waters and the other has the luxury of sitting in his office and sending articles to the New York Times,” Karydakis said.
ＦＲＢ議長会見（１）ゼロ金利継続、判断の指針を検討公開日時
2012/4/26 7:59 日経新聞
http://www.nikkei.com/markets/features/12.aspx?g=DGXNASGN2600A_26042012000000
●学者時代の見解と現在の姿勢の差について
日銀の政策について15年前に私が示した見解は現在の自分の見解と異なるとの批判を受けるがそれはまったく間違いだ。今の金融政策は15年前に示した見解と首尾一貫している。当時、私は日銀の金融政策に関連して２つの点について見解を述べた。１つは、確固とした意志を持つ中央銀行はデフレをなくすための政策を実施する必要があるということ。２つ目が、短期金利がゼロになっても中央銀行は金融緩和を実施することができるということだ。
米国では2010年の終盤にはデフレのリスクが多少あったものの、（量的緩和をつかった）バランスシートの調整により目標の２％にインフレ率を近づけることができたおかげで、現在の米国にはデフレはない。15年前の日本と今の米国の決定的な違いは、日本はデフレで、デフレとリセッション下ではさらなるデフレを招くという状況だった。
現在の米国で追加緩和は必要かどうかは、失業率の低下を早めるために多少のインフレをまねいても追加緩和を正当化すべきかどうかを問うことになる。ＦＯＭＣは、それは非常に無謀なことという見解を持っている。我々ＦＲＢは過去30年間にわたり、安定的で低水準の物価上昇率を維持することで信頼を獲得してきた。過去４～５年間にわたる金融政策も不安定な物価上昇を招くことなく積極的な緩和を実施することができた。一時的な効果を狙う緩和によって、我々のそうした財産をリスクにさらすのは愚かなことだ。
→バーナンキさんは15年前の、日銀の政策に対する「確固とした意志を持つ中央銀行はデフレをなくすための政策を実施する必要がある」「短期金利がゼロになっても中央銀行は金融緩和を実施することができる」という考え方を変えていないようです。日銀は変ったのでしょうか？日銀は変わらず、バーナンキさんが日銀をまねていると？
再送：金融緩和に副作用や限界、商品市況や金融システム安定に配慮必要＝白川日銀総裁
2012年 03月 26日 13:57 JST
http://jp.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idJPTK076475220120326
・・・
なお、白川総裁は講演の冒頭で、バブル崩壊後の日本の低成長が「大胆な政策を日銀が迅速に実行しなかったためだ」と片づけられることが多かったと指摘。住宅バブル崩壊後に日米の採った政策が似ている点を挙げ、日銀がゼロ金利政策や量的緩和政策、時間軸などを打ち出した際「同じような政策を数年後にＦＲＢが採用することになるなどとは私自身、想像もしていなかった」と述べた。