中国の貿易黒字は過大計上？

公表対米貿易黒字の２/3は、資本流入？（ビジネス・ウィーク誌）

China's Trade Surplus May Be an Illusion

By Stephen Green

Standard Chartered Bank's senior economist argues that the enormous global trade surplus could be the result of data smoke and mirrors

中国の05年度の対米貿易黒字は1兆ドルということですが、この著者の推計では、僅か350億ドルだそうです。

（前略）China shocked much of the world last year when it reported that its global trade surplus had more than tripled to $102 billion or 4.5% of revised gross domestic product. To some trade hawks and U.S. congressmen this number provided yet more evidence that Chinese exports were contributing to the hollowing out of the U.S. manufacturing sector and stealing American jobs. And they believed this was achieved unfairly, that Beijing had manipulated its currency and engaged in suspect policies such as extending unfair utilities subsidies to Chinese factories and banning workers from joining trade unions to give China an economic edge.

A CLOSER LOOK. Because of China's comparative advantage in labor-intensive manufacturing, plenty of others accepted the big spike at face value. Given China's international image as the "world's factory," it made sense to them that China's exports should have swelled. But the sudden rise in the number puzzled economists.

Why? Well, first, we know countries that export a lot tend also to import a lot -- and none more so than China. It's a developing country with few natural resources, dependent on Asian and Western firms sending in components to be assembled in coastal factories. As a percentage of GDP, China's trade surplus was actually declining through 1999 to 2004.

Economists also puzzled over what had changed from 2004 (when the trade account was only $32 billion) to 2005. A big swing like that usually means something serious is changing within the domestic economy, such as either a big increase in savings or a drop in investment inside China's own borders. But when we looked, we could not see evidence of either scenario.　（後略）

独断的コメント：

この差額の670億ドルは、様々な形態での資本流入ということだそうです。

先ごろ亡くなったガルブレイス教授は信用できる経済理論というものはなく、それ以上に無責任なのがエコノミストと呼ばれる人種だといっています。このグリーン氏のロジックでは、元高プレッシャーは誤りということになりますが・・・・・。

詳しい議論に興味のある方は、　　　　　　↓

http://www.businessweek.com/print/globalbiz/content/may2006/gb20060522_ 662112.htm

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