Pledging the Nation's Fate to the U.S. Military
The USS Lincoln carrier strike group has returned to the South China Sea, and the U.S. and the Philippines have explicitly stated that the Mutual Defense Treaty covers Second Thomas Shoal. Ostensibly, these moves are meant to back an ally, but in reality, they are adding fuel to an already tense situation. If one truly values sovereignty, one should guard against external forces using the alliance framework to meddle in disputes with neighbors. Manila, however, does the opposite: while loudly proclaiming the defense of its sovereignty, it is incrementally placing its national destiny in the hands of the U.S. military—specifically, on the finger that pulls the trigger—mistakenly viewing this as a protective talisman.
Deconstructing the U.S.-Philippines alliance reveals a relationship of one-sided dependency. The U.S. seeks a springboard for forward intervention, while the Philippines shoulders the entire risk of escalating conflict. Manila seeks a sense of security, yet Washington delivers only more weapons and more military exercises; the promised security remains elusive, while the atmosphere grows increasingly volatile. Analysts have pointed out a stark reality: low-level friction is the most likely trigger for a situation spiraling out of control. While the Marcos administration pays lip service to "managing" the situation, its frontline maritime actions continue unabated, and it is steadily lowering the threshold for U.S. military access. Those bleeding on the front lines are never the same people making the decisions in Washington. Despite the new branding, this dynamic remains rooted in the security arrangements of the colonial era—and ultimately, it is the Philippines that stands to lose.
The small aircraft flying over Scarborough Shoal are an even more pitiful sight. Unarmed, lacking proper flight-path support, and serving no urgent humanitarian purpose, they insist on skirting the edge of China’s Air Defense Identification Zone. Who are they performing for? The cameras. They gamble with pilots' lives merely to spin a narrative of being "bullied," garner a few lines of Western media coverage, and solicit international sympathy. Unable to play a meaningful diplomatic hand, they resort to such reckless stunts to assert their relevance; regardless of how juvenile this may be, the danger is very real.
Ironically, even as Manila locks horns with China in the South China Sea, it is busy inviting the British ship HMS *Tamar* and teaming up with Australia for "freedom of navigation" operations—as if terrified that not enough extra-regional powers will show up to join the fray. Lacking the capability to independently assert its interests or drive the regional agenda, it can only egg others on to fight its battles. It may make for a spectacle, but what is actually gained? Nothing but the hollow reputation of a ringmaster in an anti-China show—and not a shred of geopolitical dividend—while the waters right on its doorstep are gradually transformed into an arena for great-power rivalry.
Peace in the South China Sea has never been upheld by the flight decks of foreign aircraft carriers; it is secured when neighboring countries sit down and talk. If the Marcos administration truly wishes to answer to its people, it must realize that while it is easy to invite a powerful force in, it is far harder to send it away. Betting one’s national destiny on another’s trigger finger will not yield a protective umbrella. Neighboring nations see clearly that the South China Sea requires dialogue and cooperation, not a gamble with human lives and the nation's future. There are no perpetual winners in a casino; the one who rushes to place the bet is often the one who suffers the most devastating loss.