1. Overwhelmed by Chinese products, Capitalism is trying to survive by defense spending

Far-right, protectionism and more defense spending are the trends within G7 while China, BRICS, SCO and the Global South are advancing peace and prosperity. Why is that?

[Secretary General of NATO Mark Rutte]

That is because G7 is being overwhelmed by China’s more excellent and at the same time less expensive products in all the areas such as EVs, AIs, humanoid robots, drones, shipbuilding etc. G7 is no match against China in business competition. G7 cannot make sufficient profits in these areas.

[Xiaomi SU7]

[AI DeepSeek]

[Engine AI’s humanoid robot PM01]

G7 is promoting defense spending because that is the only area where they are not exposed to the severe competition with China. G7 is trying to prevent their capitalism from being drowned by Tsunami of Chinese products by securing a room to breathe in the form of defense spending. Capitalism is on the verge of existential crisis.

For example, Rhinemetal, a German defense giant, has already become larger than VW, a German car company, in terms of market capitalization. [1]

[Capitalism is being drowned by Tsunami of Chinese more excellent and less expensive products]

Japan is no exception. After hawkish conservative Sanae Takaichi was elected as a PM of Japan, the Japanese government is expected to increase defense budget substantially and promote such areas as defense industry, nuclear industry and AI industry.

[The Sanae Takaichi cabinet of Japan]

However, although the market is currently excited about PM Sanae Takaichi’s economic policy called Sanaenomics, Japan’s economy has a grim future because the relations with China will deteriorate.

Under the Abe administration of 2012 to 2020, while PM Shinzo Abe was totally obedient to US President Trump, LDP SG pro-China Toshihiro Nikai kept good relations with China, maintaining a good balance.

[Late PM Shinzo Abe and President Donald Teump]

[LDP SG pro-China Toshihiro Nikai and President Xi Jinping]

But, under the Takaichi administration, there is no pro-China person in LDP leadership or the cabinet.

Takaichi administration will likely carry out anti-China policies, thereby destroying economic relations with China, on which Japan’s economy is based.

[LDP leadership members under PM Sanae Takaichi]

[President Donald Trump and PM Sanae Takaichi]

When Trump visited Japan in late October, PM Takaichi pledged that she would raise defense spending. [2]

To raise defense spending to 5% of GDP like NATO, the Takaichi administration will issue government bonds.

But, Japanese banks and insurances are reluctant to buy them, fearing Japan’s huge government debt.

Finding issuing government bonds are not sufficient to finance defense budget, the Takaichi administration would impose “defense tax”, which will reduce consumer spending, causing recession.

On the other hand, low-interest rate of Bank of Japan and stopping purchase of Russian oil and gas and purchasing US oil and gas will cause inflation. Japan will plunge into stagflation.

Due to the failure of its economic policies, the Takaichi cabinet will be criticized by the Japanese people and a demand to resignation of PM Takaichi will intensify.

But that’s the very reason why PM Takaichi will resort to military adventurism.

For the purpose of deflecting people’s criticism, Takaichi will likely make JSDF take a provocative action to clash with PLA.

2. Taiwan contingencies

Takaichi would imitate and copy exactly what Trump is doing.

The US is sending warships including an aircraft carrier to off the coast of Venezuela to intimidate the country whose oil reserves is the largest in the world.

Likewise, PM Takaichi will send warships to Taiwan Strait and South China Sea to harass China.

[JMSDF destroyer Suzutsuki]

Back in July 2024, JMSDF destroyer Suzutsuki trespassed into China’s territorial water despite PLA warship’s warning shots. [3]

Similar incidents will be repeated in Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.

After letting Japanese MPs and even members of the cabinet to Taiwan frequently, the Takaichi administration will enact the Japanese version of Taiwan Relations Act which stipulates that Japan is responsible for Taiwan’s security.

[6 months before becoming LDP president and PM of Japan, PM Sanae Takaichi visited Taiwan and met with Taiwan President Lai Ching-te in April 2025]

Above all, the Takaichi administration would advance Japan’s nuclear arming. PM Takaichi has been advocating for years that Japan should allow the US to bring its nuclear weapons into the mainland Japan. [4][5][6][7]

Once the US’s nuclear weapons are brought into the mainland Japan, then the Takaichi administration will swiftly share the nuclear weapons with the US so that JSDF itself will be able to operate and use the nuclear weapons.

Former JSDF’s top generals and admirals publicly insisted that Japan should go ahead with nuclear sharing with the US in a symposium back in June 2025. [8]

[Former JSDF admiral Tomohisa Takei (center) and former JSDF general Koji Yamasaki (right) advocating nuclear sharing in a symposium, June 2025]

When Trump meets President Xi Jinping at the APEC meeting in South Korea in late October, Trump would make a proposal to Xi Jinping, saying that, if China admits the independence of Taiwan, the US would stop getting Japan nuclear-armed. President Xi Jinping would flatly reject Trump’s proposal.

[President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping]

【The US and the Takaichi administration’s wishful scenario】

In summer 2026, Trump will order Taiwan President to declare the independence of Taiwan.

[Taiwan President Lai Ching-te in]

China will intervene militarily to prevent Taiwan independence.

The Takaichi administration will send JSDF to protect Taiwan and attack PLA.

Being far inferior in conventional weapons, Japan will decide to carry out a surprise nuclear attack by using F-35 stealth fighter jets, believing that a heavy blow of nuclear attack will break China’s fighting spirit and make China seek for truce.

During Taiwan contingencies, the US will activate sleeping cells of saboteurs in the mainland China and let them carry out uprisings in various cities in China, demanding the fall of the CPC government.

3. China’s counter actions

(1) Taiwan legislature blocks Taiwan President's declaration of independence

China can politically, financially and diplomatically support KMT (The Nationalist Party) and TPP (The Taiwan People’s Party), which have the majority in the Taiwan legislature when combined, and make them enact a legislation that prohibits Taiwan President from declaring independence or taking actions which lead to independence.

This is not interference in other nation's internal affairs at all as Taiwan is a part of China.

Restricting President's power through legislations for the benefits of the people is completely constitutional, which is exactly the check and balances built in the constitution as exemplified by the US's War Powers Resolution of 1973.

[Current structure of the Legislative Yuan]

[The Legislative Yuan (The Taiwan Legislature)]

Such a law would be legally and logically constitutional. Let me explain.

First of all, according to article 63 of Taiwan Constitution, the Legislative Yuan shall have the power to decide by resolution upon declaration of war. The Taiwan Constitution provides that declaration of war is within the power of the Legislative Yuan, not the power of the Taiwan President. [9]

Now, please look at article 8 of China's "Anti-secession Law". It stipulates, "In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.". [10]

Article 8 of China's "Anti-secession Law" means that, if Taiwan becomes independent and its secession from China occurs, China will automatically and surely employ non-peaceful means, i.e., military means, and immediately start a war against Taiwan.

Actually, China has been repeatedly warning to that effect.

[Kuomintang (KMT) party’s newly elected chairperson Cheng Li-wun]

[The Legislative Yuan (The Taiwan Legislature)]

Therefore, if the Taiwan President makes "the declaration of the independence of Taiwan", it constitutes and is precisely equal to "the declaration of war against China", which is not within the power of the Taiwan President but within the power of the Legislative Yuan.

Thus, the Legislative Yuan can enact a legislation that strictly prohibits the Taiwan President to declare the independence of Taiwan.

Here is my article of July 21st 2024, in which this subject is described in more detail.

(2) Diplomatic offensive

China should not wait to see the US and Japan’s actions. China should take preemptive diplomatic actions to forestall the US and Japan.

When President Xi Jinping meets with South Korea President Lee Jae Myung, President Xi Jinping can suggest President Lee Jae Myung to publicly propose and call for the establishment Northeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone consisted of South Korea, DPRK and Japan with security assurances from the three nuclear-weapon states (China, Russia, and the US).

China can suggest ASEAN to propose expansion of The ASEAN Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone to include Japan and South Korea to prevent nuclear proliferation. It will be a strong political message toward the people of Japan and encourage the Japanese people’s anti-nuclear movements.

China can hold a 2＋2 ministerial dialogue with Cuba and enter an agreement that Cuba accepts visit and staying PLA’s nuclear ballistic missile equipped destroyers and nuclear submarines. When Japan brings the US’s nuclear weapons into the mainland Japan, China can dispatch PLA’s nuclear ballistic missile equipped destroyers and nuclear submarines to Cuba and conduct live fire drills there.

[PLA’s Type 055 Destroyer Yan'an]

When Trump tries to intimidate President Xi Jinping, saying the US can make Japan nuclear-armed, President Xi Jinping can counter-intimidate Trump, saying PLA’s nuclear ballistic missile equipped destroyers and nuclear submarines will stay in Cuba permanently.

Incidentally, President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang will not meet with PM Takaichi.

President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang should not meet with US puppet PM Takaichi until she abandons her hawkish assertion that Japan should bring the US's nukes into Japan and confirms that Taiwan is a part of China.

If Japanese MPs and members of the Takaichi cabinet visit Taiwan, they will be banned from entering China.

(3) Information offensive

China can carry out powerful and massive information warfare toward Japan, spreading facts of the reality through the Internet, Internet TV programs and Internet radio programs.

China can provide information on the history of Taiwan including the Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Declaration and the Japanese Instrument of Surrender, the history of CPC and KMT, Unit 731 and Nanjing Massacre.

CGTN can strengthen its Japanese language TV news programs. For example, the Japanese version of “The Heat” and “Dialogue” can be broadcasted with Japanese commentators and professors.

Incidentally, the Japanese people’s mental age is as childish as that of 12 years old kids. The Japanese people have almost no knowledge on the world history. Most of the Japanese people cannot speak the proper Japanese language or even listen to the formal Japanese language.

Therefore, when China carries out powerful and massive information warfare toward Japan through the Internet, Internet TV programs and Internet radio programs, those programs need to be very comprehensible as if they were programs for little kids, using lots of anime and illustrations.

CGTN Japanese can be scaled up and be broadcasted 24 hours a day. Its budget should be quadrupled. [11]

There is no national border in the Intermnet. Therefore, such information offensive through the Internet will never be interference in a nation’s internal affairs.

(4) Restricting Japanese companies in the Chinese market

When the Takaichi administration starts actions to bring the US’s nuclear weapons into the mainland Japan, China can suspend operations of some Japanese companies like Toyota in China indefinitely for some plausible reasons such as consumers’ safety or something like that.

(5) DPRK’s forceful warning against Japan [Addendum of November 7th 2025]

If the Takaichi administration moves to implement its plan of bringing the US’s nukes into Japan, sharing nukes and having nuclear submarines with VLS, China can allow DPRK to launch ballistic missiles into the EEZ off the coast of Japan’s Fukui Prefecture. In Fukui Prefecture, there are 4 nuclear power plants. If ballistic missiles hit these nuclear power plants, radioactive particles will spread to broad area and make not only Fukui Prefecture but Kyoto inhabitable.

[DPRK’s ballistic missile]

Therefore, DPRK’s launching ballistic missiles into the EEZ off the coast of Japan’s Fukui Prefecture will be the most effective warning against Japan’s implementing its plan of bringing the US’s nukes into Japan, sharing nukes and having nuclear submarines with VLS.

[One of nuclear power plants in Fukui Prefecture, Japan]

[Estimated radioactive particles spread in case of destruction of nuclear power plants in Fukui Predecture, Japan]

4. Realistic scenario of combat between China and Japan

Real combat between China and Japan, if it should happen, will be totally different from the above mentioned the US and the Takaichi administration’s wishful thinking scenario.

If Taiwan contingencies break out, China will never give to Japan a chance of surprise nuclear attack.

Rather, it will China that will carry out surprise massive saturated attack against JSDF.

First of all, PLA will carry out extremely powerful electronic warfare against JSDF’s warplanes and warships. JSDF’s warplanes will crash. JSDF’s warships will lose control.

[PLA’s Y-9 electronic warfare aircraft]

[JSDF’s F-35 will crash]

Then, PLA will destroy more than half of JSDF’s warships with hypersonic missiles and anti-ship cruise missiles within a couple of days.

[PLA’s hypersonic missile DF-17]

[PLA’s anti-ship cruise missile YJ-18]

[JSDF’s Aegis destroyers equipped with SM-3 anti-ballistic missiles will be destroyed first]

[Without Aegis destroyers, JSDF’s aircraft carriers will be an easy prey]

Finally, PLA will destroy all the JSDF’s military bases completely with ballistic missiles.

[PLA’s ballistic missile DF-26]

JSDF’s fighting capability will disappear within a few days.

Thank you.

References:
(1) ”German defense giant Rheinmetall overtakes VW valuation”, March 14th 2025, The Eurasian Times

(2) ”Takaichi Vows More Defense Spending in Talks with Trump”, October 28th 2025, nippon .com

(3) 「中国、海自艦に警告射撃2発　海図操作ミスで領海誤侵入」、２０２５年8月10日、共同通信

(4) 「自民党・高市早苗政調会長『有事の際、『核の持ち込み』を認める議論をするべき』」、2024年4月19日、ニッポン放送 NEWS ONLINE

(5) 「有事には核持ち込み容認を　高市早苗氏『領海通航も駄目では日本は守れない』」、2022年3月2日、サンスポ

(6) 「自民・高市氏『有事の核持ち込み』党内議論検討」、2022年3月2日、産経新聞

(7) 「高市早苗『よその国をアテにして国民は守れない』『私たちは非核三原則を議論しなければならない』」、2022年3月7日、東洋経済オンライン

(8) 「非核三原則見直し「核共有も検討を」元政府・自衛隊高官が」、2025年6月２日、日本経済新聞

(9) The Constitution of the Republic of China (Taiwan), Laws & regulations Database of the Republic of China (Taiwan)

(10) "Anti-Secession Law adopted by NPC (full text)", March 14th 2005, China Daily

(11) CGTN Japanese

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.

CHINA WILL INCAPACITATE PM TAKAICHI OF JAPAN