【Summary】

Back in 1990, the US vigorously mediated Pakistan and India to avoid a nuclear war. But, the US doesn’t mediate diligently this time.

The US wants Pakistan and India to wage a nuclear war so that a nuclear arming domino happens. The US wants Japan to get nuclear armed and attack China.

【Text】

1. Pakistan-India conflict over Kashmir region

The conflict between Pakistan and India, which was sparked by the massacre of tourists last month in Indian-controlled Kashmir, has only kept escalating.

April 22nd 2025, 26 Hindus were killed in India administered Kashmir. [1]

[Pakistan controlled Kashmir and India controlled Kashmir]

From the fact that Hindus tourists were killed, India jumped into a conclusion that Pakistan-backed militants, which oppose India’s control over Kashmir, must have killed the Hindus tourists.

Pakistan denied its involvement in the incident and demanded an International investigation.

However, India unilaterally decided to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, as a result of which Pakistan lost water supply from the Indus River.

On May 7th, India launched "Operation Sindoor", striking what it described as "terrorist infrastructure" in Pakistan, using IAF jets equipped with missiles.

[India’s air raid against what it described as "terrorist infrastructure" in Pakistan]

Countering India’s air raid, Pakistan shot down 5 India warplanes including Rafale that India imported from France.

[Pakistan’s J-10 fighter jet imported from China]

India and Pakistan exchanged drone attacks each other.

On May 10th, India launched missiles at Pakistan’s military bases, including a base close to the capital of Islamabad.

[India’s attack against Pakistan’s military base]

Pakistan retaliated by attacking India’s army infrastructure and bases.

[Pakistan’s retaliation against India’s military base]

Attacking each other’s military bases made the Pakistan-India conflict on the brink of all out warfare.

Pakistan obtained the capability to detonate a nuclear weapon by the end of 1984. It is estimated that Pakistan currently has 160-170 nuclear warheads.
India conducted a nuclear test in 1974 and declared itself a nuclear weapons state in 1998. It is estimated that India currently has 180 nuclear warheads.

Therefore, the war between Pakistan and India could become the first nuclear war in the history.

Incidentally, however, it is still unclear and ambiguous how the Kasimir massacre was carried out. It is not confirmed whether Pakistan backed militants really killed 26 Hindus although India alleges they did.

There is a possibility that CIA or/and MI6 controlled groups started shooting to trigger the Pakistan-India conflicts. Such clandestine operations are their business usual. MI6 has been linked to a series of insurgency and destabilization activities in Pakistan, according to various reports. [2][3]

It seems that the US wants to escalate the conflict into even a nuclear war. Why? Let me explain.

2. The US’s plan to trigger a nuclear domino effect

Back in 1990, the US vigorously mediated Pakistan and India to avoid a nuclear war when exactly the same crisis over Kashmir region took place between Pakistan and India, both of which were supposed to have already gotten nuclear-armed.

George Bush Sr, the US President at that time, decided to send Robert Gates, a Deputy National Security Advisor, to Pakistan and India to cool down them and prevent a nuclear war from breaking out. [4]

[The US President George Bush Sr (right) and Robert Gates, a Deputy National Security Advisor]

Gates was authorized to share the US’s most sensitive satellite intelligence with the leadership in Islamabad and New Delhi.

In Islamabad, showing satellite images, Gates said to the Pakistan leadership, "Our military has war-gamed every conceivable scenario between you and the Indians, and there isn't a single way you win." Gates also warned Pakistan that if a war breaks out "Don't expect any help from us." Gates’ objective powerful warning sufficed to make Pakistan abandon the idea of attacking India.

Gates then went to New Delhi with this assurance. A nuclear war between Pakistan and India was averted.

In 1990, nuclear non-proliferation was a priority for the US. Therefore, the US wanted to prevent a nuclear war by all means.

However, 35 years later, today, the US does not mediate Pakistan and India vigorously. Why?

If a nuclear war breaks out between Pakistan and India, nations of the world would realize that the age of nuclear wars has come and hurriedly start planning to develop and procure nuclear weapons. In other words, a nuclear arming domino would kick off.

The purpose of the US is to trigger a nuclear arming domino in Asia so that such countries as South Korea and Japan get nuclear-armed.

There is a possibility that the US scheduled the Kashmir crisis would break out and escalate exactly during Chinese President Xi Jinping and FM Wang Yi’s visit to Russia to attend the 80th anniversary VE event in Moscow so that China would not be able to mediate Pakistan and India effectively.

3. A nuclear domino effect toward South Korea

According to polls, almost 70% of South Korean people believe that South Korea should get nuclear-armed. This is understandable, given the situation that South Korea borders with a nuclear state North Korea. [5]

If Pakistan and India wage a nuclear war, it will affect the South Korean presidential election scheduled on June 3rd. Whether South Korea should gets nuclear-armed would become the most significant debate point in the presidential election, And, probably, a candidate for nuclear-arming would win.

4. A nuclear domino effect toward Japan

If South Korea decides to go ahead with nuclear-arming, it will surely affect the opinion of Japanese people. That’s what a nuclear arming domino is.

Currently, most Japanese people oppose Japan’s nuclear arming.

[According to a poll conducted among college students in Hiroshima, Japan, more than 75% respondents opposed Japan’s nuclear arming] [6]

But, if South Korea decides to get nuclear-armed, it is likely that Japan would follow the suit and get nuclear-armed as well.

Hawkish Japanese politicians such as Sanae Takaichi and Takayuki Kobayashi would strongly advocate that Japan should get nuclear-armed in order to protect itself.

[Sanae Takaichi (left) and Takayuki Kobayashi]

While visiting the US in early May, Takayuki Kobayashi indicated that Japan should pursue “strategic autonomy”, the meaning of which can be interpreted that Japan should protect its territory by itself with nuclear weapons without being dependent on US military forces stationed in Japan. [7]

[Takayuki Kobayashi in Washington DC in May 2025]

Also, in order to facilitate Japan’s nuclear arming, the US would announce that it would withdraw most of its warships and warplanes from Japan, saying that, given China’s thousands of intermediate and short range ballistic missiles, stationing warships and warplanes in Japan is too vulnerable. US warships and warplanes would be moved to Guam and Hawaii.

Japan has already decided to deploy intermediate range missile that can hit Beijing by 2027. If Japan combines intermediate range missiles with nuclear warheads, it would be enormous menace toward China.

It is likely that Japan would get nuclear-armed by leasing nuclear weapons from the US because the US would want to hold a final decision on detonation.

Once Japan gets nuclear-armed, all what the US had to do is to manipulate media to incite anti-China sentiment among Japanese people so that a far-right government would be established in Japan and start a war against China.

Then, the US would make the far-right Japanese government to make provocative actions against China (Diaoyu Islands) such as sending warships around Senkaku Islands and even letting Japanese troops land on Senkaku Islands.

[There is a territorial dispute over Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands) between China and Japan]

[A Japanese coast guard ship and a Chinese coast guard ship near Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands)]

Just like Russia attacked Ukraine because of Ukraine’s provocative actions such as suppressing and executing Russian-speaking people in the eastern regions of Ukraine, China would attack Japanese warships and troops to protect her national sovereignty and territorial integrity. A war between China and Japan would break out.

Because Japan is inferior to China in conventional weapons, Japan would immediately use nuclear weapons against China, believing nuclear attacks would scare and subdue China. Japan would attack such cities as Shanghai, Beijing and Hangzhou with nuclear ballistic missiles. Millions of Chinese people would die.

But, China would not be subdued and rather retaliate against Japan with massive nuclear weapon attacks. Tens of millions of Japanese people would die.

5. China and Russia’s mediation over Pakistan and India

A nuclear war must be prevented. A nuclear arming domino must be prevented.

Therefore, China and Russia should do everything they can do to persuade Pakistan and India to de-escalate the tensions so that a nuclear war would be avoided by all means. China and Russia should immediately start mediation toward Pakistan and India, because the conflict between Pakistan and India could escalate into exchanges of nuclear attacks anytime soon. China mediates and persuades Pakistan. Russia mediates and persuades India.

[China’s President Xi Jinping (right) and Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif]

[China’s President Xi Jinping (right) and India’s PM Narendra Modi]

[Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (right) and India’s PM Narendra Modi]

Unlike in 1990, the US would not mediate vigorously this time. It is for China and Russia to mediate.

It is hoped that China would reconcile Pakistan and India just like she reconciled Saudi Arabia and Iran.

[Saudi national security adviser Musaad bin Mohammed al-Aiban (Left), China's foreign minister Wang Yi and Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani in Beijing in March 2023]

Ultimately, the Kashmir territorial dispute should be put on the shelf so that Pakistan and India focus upon economic cooperation and development.

Thank you.

[Addendum]

According to the Foreign Ministry spokes person Lin Jian’s X posting of May 10th, “China is closely following the ongoing situation between India and Pakistan and is deeply concerned about the escalation. We strongly urge both sides to act in the larger interest of peace and stability, exercise calm and restraint, return to the track of political settlement through peaceful means, and refrain from any action that could further escalate tension. This will be important for the fundamental interest of both India and Pakistan, and for a stable and peaceful region. This is also what the international community hopes to see. China is willing to continue to play a constructive role to this end.” [8]

[China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs]

Then, in the evening of May 10th, Pakistan and India announced that they agreed to ceasefire. [9]

Obviously, China’s mediation has lead to ceasefire.
Probably, China mediated Pakistan. Russia mediated India.

On the other hand, the US claims that it mediated Pakistan and India. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he and US Vice-President JD Vance had spent 48 hours with senior Indian and Pakistani officials, including their respective Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Shehbaz Sharif. [10]

Marco Rubio is exaggerating the US’s engagement. The US doesn’t have influence over India very much.

In fact, India’s Ministry of Information said the ceasefire agreement was worked out “directly between the two countries,” downplaying US involvement and contradicting the US’s claim. [11]

Incidentally, even after the ceasefire, India and Pakistan accuse each other of 'violations'. [12]

The US might try to manipulate covert operations to provoke Pakistan and India so that they would resume hostility.

China and Russia are expected to do everything they could to mediate Pakistan and India.

The ceasefire must continue and lead to swift recovering of normal relations between Pakistan and India.

Furthermore, China, cooperating with Pakistan and India, can build highways and mountain railways in Kashmir region and develop entire Kashmir region, whether administered by Pakistan or administered by India, promoting tourism and other industries.

The development of Kashmir will drive militant and insurgency groups out of the region. Militant and insurgency groups would just evaporate and disappear under the sunshine.

References:
(1) ” ‘Act of war’: What happened in Kashmir attack that killed 26 tourists?”, April 23rd 2025, Al Jazeera

(2) ”The Hidden Hand: MI6, MI5, and RAW as Catalysts of Instability in Pakistan”, March 2025, Policy Wire

(3) ”Kashmir will remain 'Achilles heel' of Indo-Pak relations: CIA report”, January 9th 2017, Deccan Herald

(4) ”Gates closed window of Indo-Pak war”, November 9th 2006, The Times of India

(5) ”Is South Korea Going Nuclear?”, February 3rd 2023, 38 North

(6) 「５人に１人が核兵器保有容認　広島県内の大学生」、２００８年８月７日、中国新聞ヒロシマ平和メディアセンター

(7) 「『日本は戦略的自律を迫られる』　訪米の自民・小林鷹之氏」、２０２５年５月２日、共同通信

(8) The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of PRC spokes person Lin Jian’s X posting of May 10th, May 10th 2025, The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of PRC

(9) ”India and Pakistan agree to a ceasefire, but will it hold? Here’s what to know”, May 10th 2025, CNN

(10) ”India-Pakistan ceasefire appears to hold after accusations of violations”, May 10th 2025, BBC

(11) ”India and Pakistan agree to a ceasefire, but will it hold? Here’s what to know”, May 10th 2025, CNN

(12) ”India-Pakistan ceasefire appears to hold after accusations of violations”, May 10th 2025, BBC

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.

PAKISTAN-INDIA WAR AND NUCLEAR DOMINO TO JAPAN