【Summary】

PM Ishiba’s meeting with Trump where no bad news appeared has firmly set up a good stage for the coming PM Ishiba’s meeting with President Xi Jinping, where lots of good and pleasant news for Japanese people and Chinese people are expected to be announced.

1. PM Ishiba’s meeting with President Trump

Japan’s PM Shigeru Ishiba had a meeting with US President Donald Trump in early February in Washington DC. It was his first face to face meeting with Trump.

Although Trump had been bullying Canada, Mexico, Greenland (Denmark) and Panama until then, Trump did not bully PM Ishiba at the meeting. Instead, Trump was cozy and considerate to PM Ishiba. Why?

[PM Ishiba looked confident when he met with President Trump in early February 2025]

Because PM Ishiba have already established a close tie with China. Immediately after he had been elected as a PM, PM Ishiba met with Chinese President Xi Jinping during APEC in Peru in November 2024.

[Japanese pro-China PM Shigeru Ishiba and Chinese President Xi Jinping, November 2024]

After that, Japanese FM Takeshi Iwaya visited China and met with Chinese FM Wang Yi in December 2024.

[Japanese FM Takeshi Iwaya and Chinese FM Wang Yi, December 2024]

Also, Mr. Hiroshi Moriyama, Secretary General of Japanese ruling party LDP, visited China and met with FM Wang Yi in January 2025.

Actually, Mr. Moriyama is a king maker who made Mr. Ishiba a PM by rallying and organizing support for Mr. Ishiba among LDP MPs.

[Mr. Hiroshi Moriyama, Secretary General of Japanese ruling party LDP, and Chinese FM Wang Yi, January 2025]

Thanks to such layered and multiple meetings between leadership of China and Japan, Japan has already established close diplomatic relations with China.

Unlike previous pro-US Abe administration and pro-US Kishida administration, the current Ishiba administration of Japan is pro-China.

[late Japanese PM Shinzo Abe was anti-China. Therefore, he needed help and support of the US, which made him flatter Trump. He would have even licked Trump’s shoes if he had been requested to do so. February 2017]

Japan’s top countries to which it exports and from which it imports are China. Japan’s economy is dependent upon China. Pro-China businesses are getting more and more dominating in Japan than pro-US businesses. These economic situations are reflected to the political sphere, and pro-China Ishiba administration has been established.

No bad news is good news. Obviously, when PM Ishiba met with Trump, the elephant in the room was China. Trump could not bully Japan, fearing bullying would make Japan even closer to China.

Also, as they say, money talks. PM Ishiba’s verbal promises that Japan would invest a trillion dollars to the US sufficed to please Trump.

[Trump was cozy and considerate to PM Ishiba, February 2025]

PM Ishiba’s meeting with Trump where no bad news appeared has firmly set up a good stage for the coming PM Ishiba’s meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping, where lots of good and pleasant news for both Japanese people and Chinese people are expected to be announced.

PM Ishiba has already indicated that he would like to visit China and meet with President Xi Jinping as expeditiously as possible so as to solidify trusted relations between them.

China sounded whether PM Ishiba could visit China in the first half of February. [1]

Therefore, it is expected PM Ishiba would visit China within as early as February. Preparation for the meeting with President Xi Jinping must be currently being made by the Japanese foreign ministry and the Chinese foreign ministry diligently.

2. Agenda for the coming meeting between President Xi Jinping and PM Ishiba

At the coming meeting between President Xi Jinping and PM Ishiba, it is expected that China and Japan solidify their relations by win-win relations based upon mutual respect and equal status.

(1) China would propose to Japan the followings:

Investment in China

China would extend her invitation to Japan on more investment in China.

China has already implemented a visa-free policy for Japan. Citizens of Japan can visit China without a visa for up to 30 days, which helps Japanese business persons to visit and facilitate businesses effectively.

China’s consumer market of 1.4 billion people is expanding rapidly. Japan can find lots of business opportunities in China.

[The world’s largest shopping mall in Guangdong Province, China]

E-commerce

China would implement policies and enact legislations to promote e-commerce with Japan and live streaming by Japanese individuals. China would apply AIs to facilitate e-commerce with Japan by developing cyber AI shopping platforms where translation of Chinese and Japanese would be made simultaneously.

BRI and GDI

Also, China would extend her invitation to Japan to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative and cooperate in China’s Global Development Initiative.

China would invite Japanese construction companies to build infrastructures in developing countries.

For example, Japan might be invited to build and prepare an industrial zone around Chancay smart port in Peru so that local Peruvian companies would construct offices and factories there.

AI applications

China is clever enough to apply AIs to manufacturing industries and farming industries and make them super-efficient and super-effective. Also, China applies AIs to drones and robots etc.

China can propose cooperation with Japan as to how to devise and apply AIs to make people happy.

Quantum computer

China might propose China-Japan cooperation in the area of development of quantum computer. Chinese scientists and engineers and Japanese scientists and engineers would cooperate for the benefit of the mankind.

Welcoming students

China would welcome Japanese university students and high school students to come to China to study together with Chinese students, financially supporting them by setting up scholarship.

Japanese seafoods

China might partially or entirely lift its import ban against Japanese seafoods on condition that the monitoring system over discharged radioactive contaminated water by international inspectors including Chinese inspectors would continue to be allowed full inspection anywhere and anytime and that, if any radioactive contamination in discharged water is detected, the import ban would be resumed immediately.

Amnesty

Amnesty to a Japanese businessman currently on trial under suspicion of espionage might be considered on condition that Japanese government would enact strict regulations to prevent Japanese companies and individuals from attempting espionage activities in China. [2]

Or, a verdict might be made to the Japanese businessman soon, giving him a sentence of relatively shorter period of imprisonment than expected.

[China’s local court of law]

(2) Japan would propose to China the followings:

E-commerce

In his address to the Japanese Parliament of January 2025, PM Ishiba pledged that he would promote Japanese local regions’ economy.

The Japanese central government and each local government would set up an e-commerce facilitation office and vigorously encourage local companies and individuals to start and get engaged in e-commerce with China in the fields of farming industries, manufacturing industries and service industries.

For the purpose of promoting Japan’s local economies, Japanese central government and each local government would implement various measures to support local companies and individuals’ in their e-commerce activities with China, including providing subsidies and favorable tax treatments.

[Chinese Ambassador to Japan Wu Jianghao and Aichi Prefectural Governor Hideaki Omura]

[Kagawa Prefectural Governor Toyohito Ikeda and Chinese Ambassador to Japan Wu Jianghao]

[Tottori Prefectural Governor Shinji Hirai signed a memorandum with Jilin Province to facilitate cooperation of Chinese and Japanese companies in the area of EV, October 2018. PM Ishiba is from Tottori Prefecture] [3]

For example, receiving technical advice and equipments from China, Japan can deploy AI equipped drones in local regions so that drones would carry foods, medicine and other necessities to senior people in scarcely populated mountainous areas or business people working remotely in the nature or people in a disaster stricken area.

BRI and GDI

Japan would start examining joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Global Development initiative.

Chinese and Japanese government officials start consultation to prepare Japan’s joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Global Development initiative as soon as possible.

Japanese construction companies would be happy to gain business opportunities to build infrastructures in developing countries. Then, they would support the Ishiba administration even more, which would help the Ishiba administration to solidify its political basis in Japan.

Semi-conductor manufacturing machine

Japan would slacken its regulation on restricting export of semi-conductor manufacturing machines to China and permit export of them on the case by case basis.

Taiwan

In the coming meeting between President Xi Jinping and PM Ishiba, Japan would clearly state that the Taiwan issue is “China’s internal affairs”.

So far, traditionally, the Japanese government has repeated the following relatively ambiguous statement when it mentions about the Taiwan issue:

“We expect that the issue surrounding Taiwan will be resolved peacefully through dialogue, thereby contributing to the peace and stability in the region.” [4]

From now on, Japan would insert a phrase “because the Taiwan issue is internal affairs of China” at the initial part of the statement as follows:

“Because the Taiwan issue is internal affairs of China, we expect that the issue surrounding Taiwan will be resolved peacefully through dialogue, thereby contributing to the peace and stability in the region.”

The revised statement with the insertion would be included in the joint statement to be published by the Chinese government and the Japanese government.

This insertion will make a big difference. By officially recognizing that the Taiwan issue is China’s internal affairs, Japan would logically admit that interfering in the Taiwan issue is interference in other country’s internal affairs and, therefore, it is a violation of international law.

PM Ishiba would clearly and publicly state about it during a press conference after the meeting with President Xi Jinping.

Furthermore, the logic proceeds even further. Since Taiwan issue is China’s internal affairs, if a third country intervenes with military force, it would constitute aggression and that, therefore, Japanese Self Defense Force will never join military operation in case of Taiwan contingencies.

PM Ishiba would clearly and publicly state about it during a press conference after the meeting with President Xi Jinping.

Also, during the press conference, PM Ishiba would calmly indicate reluctance to permit US military to use US bases in Japan to intervene in a Taiwan contingency, because, if Japan permits it, Japan will be a battlefield and ruin.

Without using US bases in Japan, it is impossible for US military to conduct operations to intervene in a Taiwan contingency. US military would not be able to do even supplying weapons and ammunitions to combat units.

[US Air Force Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan]

[US Air Force’s F-22 fighter jets in Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan]

The majority of Taiwan people don’t believe that the US would come to protect them in case of Taiwan contingencies.

Watching PM Ishiba’s statements and reading the China-Japan joint statement, the Taiwan people will finally realize that a peaceful reunification with China is the only choice and start moving forward to the peaceful reunification.

[Addendum on Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands)]

Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands)

PM Ishiba would highly praise Deng Xiaoping’s approach and wisdom of “shelving differences and seeking joint development” regarding territorial disputes on the Senkaku Islands (the Diaoyu Islands), which Deng Xiaoping proposed when he visited Japan in 1978. PM Ishiba would propose to China that China and Japan should return to that arrangement of shelving territorial disputes about the islands. China would welcome it and agree.

(Let’s see the video of Deng Xiaoping’s comment of wisdom that he made at the press conference when he visited Japan in 1978.)

[Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands)]

[Addendum on the South China Sea]

The South China Sea

Furthermore, PM Ishiba would propose that Deng Xiaoping’s wisdom of “shelving differences and seeking joint development” should be applied to the South China Sea.

PM Ishiba would state, “ASEAN is the largest trade partner for China. China and ASEAN have so much to cooperate like BRI, E-commerce, AI, high-speed railways, infrastructures etc. The development should not be hindered by territorial disputes, much less by military interference by a third party country. Military exercises by any member of ASEAN countries with a third party country in the South China Sea must be stopped.” China would agree. [5]

PLA warship’s friendly visit to Japan

In January 2025, A delegation of military generals from PLA’s Eastern Theater Command visited Japan and met with senior officials of Japan’s Defense Ministry.

The delegation also inspected JMSDF’s Maizuru naval base on the western coast of Japan. It is expected China’s warships will visit there. [6]

The Japanese government would invite PLA’s warships to make friendly visits to Japan to demonstrate and symbolize an improved national security situation between China and Japan.

Also, cooperation and exchange of information as to defense against cyber attack by a third country might be proposed.

After the meeting between President Xi Jinping and PM Ishiba, a joint statement would be published to indicate agreed matters and declare that China and Japan promote strategic relationship of mutual benefit in an all-round way.

3. Invitation to President Xi Jinping to visit Japan as a state guest

Back in 2020, the Chinese government and the Japanese government were preparing for President Xi Jinping’s visit to Japan as a state guest.

However, due to the pandemic of Covid-19, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga had to announce that President Xi Jinping’s visit to Japan was postponed indefinitely. [7]

After that, Mr. Suga became a PM of Japan. He tried to welcome President Xi Jinping as a state guest but couldn’t.

[Mr. Hiroshi Moriyama, Secretary General of LDP (left), PM Shigeru Ishiba, Mr. Yoshihide Suga, Vice President of LDP]

Currently, former PM Suga is the Vice Prresident of LDP. Actually, along with Mr. Moriyama, Mr. Suga was a king maker who made Mr. Ishiba a PM by rallying and organizing support for Mr. Ishiba among LDP MPs.

During the coming meeting, PM Ishiba would respectfully invite President Xi Jinping to visit Japan as a state guest, which President Xi Jinping would accept.

Having solidified the tie with Japan through the coming meeting with PM Ishiba, President Xi Jinping would be able to have a strong position against Trump in a meeting with him, which is expected to be held within this year.

Thank you.

References:
(1) 「石破首相の2月訪中提案　王外相、対日安定化急ぐ」、２０２５年１月３１日、共同通信

(2) 「中国で起訴の製薬会社日本人男性初公判が11月下旬に行われる」、２０２４年１２月９日、NHK

(3) 「平井伸治鳥取県知事：コナン・緑化・第三国市場で協力進化」、２０１９年３月１９日、人民中国

(4) Result of the Presidential Election in Taiwan
(Statement by Foreign Minister KAMIKAWA Yoko), January 13th 2024, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan

(5) Deng Xiaoping’s South China Sea resolution could work again, June 18th 2024, ThinkChina

(6) 「中国軍東部戦区が訪日、衝突回避へ議論　トランプ政権見据え接近か」、２０２５年１月１７日、朝日新聞

(7) 「習近平主席の国賓来日を延期　政府発表、新型コロナ感染拡大で」、２０２０年３月５日、毎日新聞

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.

TRUMP-ISHIBA MEETING AND XI-ISHIBA MEETING