1. The US’s probable strategy under the Trump administration 2025-2028
Ukraine
It is likely that the Trump administration will demand President Zelensky of Ukraine to start a peace talk with Russia. A ceasefire would be agreed between Ukraine and Russia before long and be maintained for at least 4 years.
[President Putin, President Zelensky and President Trump]
But, this is exactly same as Minsk 2 agreement of 2015 under which the US and NATO had bought time to make plans and piled up weapons and ammunitions to wage Ukraine War.
As soon as the US, UK and NATO pile up sufficient weapons and ammunitions, they would start the second Ukraine War to attack Russia.
The ultimate purpose of the West is to conquer Russia and attack China from the north.
Taiwan
Given the pro-China Ishiba administration established in Japan based upon predominant pro-China businesses there, it is unlikely that the Trump administration would dare to force Taiwan President Lai Ching-te to declare independence of Taiwan so that China would be drawn into Taiwan War.
[Japanese pro-China PM Shigeru Ishiba and Chinese President Xi Jinping]
The pro-China Ishiba administration of Japan would indicate reluctance to permit US military to use US bases in Japan to intervene in a Taiwan contingency because, in case of a Taiwan war, Japan will be a battlefield and ruin.
Without using US bases in Japan, it is impossible for US military to conduct operations to intervene in a Taiwan contingency. US military would not be able to do even supplying weapons and ammunitions to combat units.
The Middle East
The US military industrial complex, which is a real ruler of the US, needs wars and conflicts to maintain sales and profits. If Europe and Asia become peaceful for at least 4 years, it needs wars and conflicts somewhere else.
Therefore, it is likely that the Trump administration will continue military, financial and economic support toward Israel and expand conflicts in the Middle East because it is profitable for US military industrial complex and US oil and gas industries.
[Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald Trump]
[A map of “Greater Israel”]
FBI said that New Orleans attacker had been inspired by ISIS. It is probable that the US will resume a war against ISIS and, using it as a pretext, invade Syria together with Israel in order to seize oil and gas in the Levant and the East Mediterranean.
[EastMed Pipeline Project]
South America
A Peruvian right wing politician once said that Peru should invade Bolivia and seize lithium resources there.
[The lithium triangle straddling Chile, Argentina and Bolivia, which holds 56% of the world’s lithium reserves] [1]
Currently, the Peruvian government and the Argentine government are pro-US. The Trump administration might make Peru and Argentina to attack Bolivia from the west and the south to seize lithium resources there.
Peru-Bolivia-Argentina War, if it happens, would disrupt lithium supply, delay the spread of EV and make Chancay smart port closed or even destroyed.
South Korea
It is likely that pro-Yoon protesters and anti-Yoon protesters would clash in front of the Constitutional Court and nationwide in South Korea before long. Then, after Trump is inaugurated, the ROK military would try to use the clash as a pretext and stage a coup, being helped by CIA.
The ROK military would advocate that the military governs to recover the order. However its real purpose is to disrupt the impeachment process and keep Yoon, who is pro-US, in the presidency.
Pakistan
Pakistan attacked Afghanistan in late December 2024. Also, Pakistan has military clash against Iran frequently. The Trump administration might encourage Pakistan to attack Afghanistan and Iran from time to time to disrupt China’s Belt and Road Initiative in the region. [2]
2. China, Russia, BRICS and SCO’s counter against the US
Against the above mentioned probable Trump administration’s strategy, how China and Russia could counter? China and Russia would counter together with BRICS plus and SCO (the Shanghai Cooperation Organization). China holds the chairmanship of SCO in 2025.
[BRICS plus and partner countries]
[SCO (the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) member states, observer states and dialogue partners]
Ukraine
China and Russia can turn a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, which the West wants to be short-lived, into lasting permanent peace in Europe.
First of all, China and Russia can request Ukraine to be a neutral state and give up an idea to be a member of NATO.
[The entire Ukraine should become a neutral state to form a buffer zone between NATO and Russia]
When Ukraine rejects the above request, China and Russia can request Ukraine to set up a neutral buffer zone between Russia’s occupied area (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Crimea) and the western part of Ukraine including Kiev.
[Alternatively, a vast neutral buffer zone should be established between Russian occupied regions and the western part of Ukraine including Kiev]
At the same time, China and Russia would propose that a neutral buffer zone should be set up in the eastern part of Poland and the western part of Belarus.
[A neutral buffer zone should be set up in the eastern part of Poland and the western part of Belarus]
Incidentally, Slovakia is in trouble because Ukraine has halted the transition of Russian natural gas into Slovakia. The US is trying to sell its natural gas, which is very expensive. [3][4]
Under such circumstances, Slovakia can switch importing Russian natural gas from via Ukraine to via Hungary.
Currently, Hungary is importing natural gas from Russia as an exemption of EU’s ban of importing Russian natural gas. Hungary is importing Russian natural gas via TurkStream pipeline that runs from Russia through the Black Sea, Bulgaria, Serbia to Hungary.
[TurkStream pipeline runs from Russia through the Black Sea, Bulgaria, Serbia to Hungary]
Slovakia would be able to import Russian natural gas from Hungary through Slovakia-Hungary Interconnector Gas Pipeline. [5]
However, the US, NATO and EU would strongly oppose such an arrangement. The US, NATO and EU would strongly blame Slovakia and Hungary. The US and possibly EU would impose economic sanctions against Slovakia and Hungary.
Under such circumstances, China, together with BRICS plus and SCO, can propose to Slovakia and Hungary that China, together with BRICS plus and SCO, support Slovakia and Hungary so that they can procure everything they need.
Goods and necessities can be shipped to Piraeus of Greece, from which goods and necessities would be transported by railway and freeway constructed by China.
[China’s proposed “Land Sea Express Route”]
As Slovakia and Hungary would realize that the US, NATO and EU are not reliable or trustworthy for their national security, China and Russia could suggest Slovakia and Hungary to leave NATO and become neutral states.
At the same time, China and Russia could suggest Bulgaria to leave NATO and become a neutral state.
Also, China and Russia could suggest Serbia to be a neutral state.
[In case the entire Ukraine becomes a neutral state:
Neutral buffer zones from the border region of Poland and Belarus, through Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary and Serbia to Bulgaria will be established]
[In case a neutral buffer zone is established between Russia’s occupied area (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Crimea) and the western part of Ukraine including Kiev:
Neutral buffer zones from the border region of Poland and Belarus, through Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary and Serbia to Bulgaria will be established]
Thereby, neutral buffer zones would be established from the border region of Poland and Belarus, through Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary and Serbia to Bulgaria. The neutral buffer zones would separate NATO and Russia and prevent them from facing directly, which therefore is expected to ensure lasting permanent peace of Europe.
However, having said that, even if whatever arrangement is reached, the West would ignore it and attack Russia before long just like Nazi Germany ignored the mutual non-aggression treaty with the Soviet. In other words, whatever arrangement is reached, it is only temporary.
Thus, China and Russia should never put their guards off even if neutral buffer zones are set up between NATO and Russia.
Taiwan
China will expect the pro-China Ishiba administration to cooperate and facilitate a reunification of China and Taiwan, which the Ishiba administration will do. PM Ishiba would visit Taiwan to meet Taiwan President Lai Ching-te and suggest him that a peaceful reunification with China is the only choice.
[Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba had visited Taiwan and met with Taiwan President Lai Ching-te in August 2024 before he became PM of Japan]
After the coming meeting with Lai Ching-te, PM Ishiba would publicly state that Japan believes that a peaceful reunification between China and Taiwan is the only choice, sending out the message to the world.
The Middle East
China can mobilize Arab countries of BRICS plus (Iran, UAE and Egypt) and SCO (Iran, Egypt and Saudi Arabia) so that the entire Arab countries would unite to impose severe economic sanctions against Israel to make it stop its aggression and genocide in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.
[China’s FM Wang Yi held talks with the delegation of Arab-Islamic foreign ministers, November 2023]
Russia can supply hypersonic missiles to Hezbollah and Houthis via Iran so that Hezbollah and Houthis will destroy the US and Israel’s military forces and prevent the US and Israel’s aggression and genocide in the Middle East.
[Russia’s “Tsirkon” hypersonic anti-ship missile]
China can exert her diplomacy power and economic influence over such countries as Cyprus and Jordan so that China can make these countries refrain from functioning as logistical channels to supply the US and European countries’ weapons and ammunitions to Israel.
South America
China constructed most sophisticated AI automated smart port in Chancay, Peru, which was inaugurated in November 2024. The Chancay Port is expected to contribute to drastically increase trade between South America and Asia. [6]
[Chancay smart port in Chancay, Peru]
China can persuade Peru that Peru’s prosperity would lie in its trade and industrialization, not in aggression into Bolivia to seize Bolivia’s lithium resources.
Brazil, which is a member of BRICS plus can check and warn against Argentina not to embark on invading Bolivia.
[Brazil has the strongest military in South America]
Also, Brazil (a member of BRICS plus) and Bolivia (a BRICS partner) can enter a mutual security treaty.
South Korea
Chinese intelligence organizations can covertly help monitoring the ROK military and provide a warning to the ROK people in an unofficial way so that a coup by the ROK military would be prevented.
Pakistan
Pakistan is a member state of SCO. Also, China has been supporting and promoting Pakistan’s economic growth through Belt and Road Initiative.
China can exert her diplomacy power and economic power to persuade Pakistan not to attack Afghanistan or Iran. China can warn Pakistan that, if Pakistan doesn’t comply, she might have to halt economic investment to and cooperation with Pakistan.
Thank you.
References:
(1) The Lithium Triangle, July 9, 2024, Global Business Reports
(2) “Pakistani airstrikes on Afghanistan kill 46 people, Taliban official says”, December 26, 2024, Reuters
(3) “Russian gas via Ukraine to Slovakia halted”, January 2, 2025, Xinhua
(4) “Poland to supply natural gas to Slovakia via Lithuania LNG terminal”, July 8, 2024, Upstream
(5) “Hungary turns itself into hub for Russian gas”, December 11, 2024, Balkan Insight
(6) ” ‘From Chancay to Shanghai’: New China-Peru BRI project to become hub, gateway port of Latin America”, November 15, 2024, The Global Times
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
Ukraine
It is likely that the Trump administration will demand President Zelensky of Ukraine to start a peace talk with Russia. A ceasefire would be agreed between Ukraine and Russia before long and be maintained for at least 4 years.
[President Putin, President Zelensky and President Trump]
But, this is exactly same as Minsk 2 agreement of 2015 under which the US and NATO had bought time to make plans and piled up weapons and ammunitions to wage Ukraine War.
As soon as the US, UK and NATO pile up sufficient weapons and ammunitions, they would start the second Ukraine War to attack Russia.
The ultimate purpose of the West is to conquer Russia and attack China from the north.
Taiwan
Given the pro-China Ishiba administration established in Japan based upon predominant pro-China businesses there, it is unlikely that the Trump administration would dare to force Taiwan President Lai Ching-te to declare independence of Taiwan so that China would be drawn into Taiwan War.
[Japanese pro-China PM Shigeru Ishiba and Chinese President Xi Jinping]
The pro-China Ishiba administration of Japan would indicate reluctance to permit US military to use US bases in Japan to intervene in a Taiwan contingency because, in case of a Taiwan war, Japan will be a battlefield and ruin.
Without using US bases in Japan, it is impossible for US military to conduct operations to intervene in a Taiwan contingency. US military would not be able to do even supplying weapons and ammunitions to combat units.
The Middle East
The US military industrial complex, which is a real ruler of the US, needs wars and conflicts to maintain sales and profits. If Europe and Asia become peaceful for at least 4 years, it needs wars and conflicts somewhere else.
Therefore, it is likely that the Trump administration will continue military, financial and economic support toward Israel and expand conflicts in the Middle East because it is profitable for US military industrial complex and US oil and gas industries.
[Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald Trump]
[A map of “Greater Israel”]
FBI said that New Orleans attacker had been inspired by ISIS. It is probable that the US will resume a war against ISIS and, using it as a pretext, invade Syria together with Israel in order to seize oil and gas in the Levant and the East Mediterranean.
[EastMed Pipeline Project]
South America
A Peruvian right wing politician once said that Peru should invade Bolivia and seize lithium resources there.
[The lithium triangle straddling Chile, Argentina and Bolivia, which holds 56% of the world’s lithium reserves] [1]
Currently, the Peruvian government and the Argentine government are pro-US. The Trump administration might make Peru and Argentina to attack Bolivia from the west and the south to seize lithium resources there.
Peru-Bolivia-Argentina War, if it happens, would disrupt lithium supply, delay the spread of EV and make Chancay smart port closed or even destroyed.
South Korea
It is likely that pro-Yoon protesters and anti-Yoon protesters would clash in front of the Constitutional Court and nationwide in South Korea before long. Then, after Trump is inaugurated, the ROK military would try to use the clash as a pretext and stage a coup, being helped by CIA.
The ROK military would advocate that the military governs to recover the order. However its real purpose is to disrupt the impeachment process and keep Yoon, who is pro-US, in the presidency.
Pakistan
Pakistan attacked Afghanistan in late December 2024. Also, Pakistan has military clash against Iran frequently. The Trump administration might encourage Pakistan to attack Afghanistan and Iran from time to time to disrupt China’s Belt and Road Initiative in the region. [2]
2. China, Russia, BRICS and SCO’s counter against the US
Against the above mentioned probable Trump administration’s strategy, how China and Russia could counter? China and Russia would counter together with BRICS plus and SCO (the Shanghai Cooperation Organization). China holds the chairmanship of SCO in 2025.
[BRICS plus and partner countries]
[SCO (the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) member states, observer states and dialogue partners]
Ukraine
China and Russia can turn a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, which the West wants to be short-lived, into lasting permanent peace in Europe.
First of all, China and Russia can request Ukraine to be a neutral state and give up an idea to be a member of NATO.
[The entire Ukraine should become a neutral state to form a buffer zone between NATO and Russia]
When Ukraine rejects the above request, China and Russia can request Ukraine to set up a neutral buffer zone between Russia’s occupied area (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Crimea) and the western part of Ukraine including Kiev.
[Alternatively, a vast neutral buffer zone should be established between Russian occupied regions and the western part of Ukraine including Kiev]
At the same time, China and Russia would propose that a neutral buffer zone should be set up in the eastern part of Poland and the western part of Belarus.
[A neutral buffer zone should be set up in the eastern part of Poland and the western part of Belarus]
Incidentally, Slovakia is in trouble because Ukraine has halted the transition of Russian natural gas into Slovakia. The US is trying to sell its natural gas, which is very expensive. [3][4]
Under such circumstances, Slovakia can switch importing Russian natural gas from via Ukraine to via Hungary.
Currently, Hungary is importing natural gas from Russia as an exemption of EU’s ban of importing Russian natural gas. Hungary is importing Russian natural gas via TurkStream pipeline that runs from Russia through the Black Sea, Bulgaria, Serbia to Hungary.
[TurkStream pipeline runs from Russia through the Black Sea, Bulgaria, Serbia to Hungary]
Slovakia would be able to import Russian natural gas from Hungary through Slovakia-Hungary Interconnector Gas Pipeline. [5]
However, the US, NATO and EU would strongly oppose such an arrangement. The US, NATO and EU would strongly blame Slovakia and Hungary. The US and possibly EU would impose economic sanctions against Slovakia and Hungary.
Under such circumstances, China, together with BRICS plus and SCO, can propose to Slovakia and Hungary that China, together with BRICS plus and SCO, support Slovakia and Hungary so that they can procure everything they need.
Goods and necessities can be shipped to Piraeus of Greece, from which goods and necessities would be transported by railway and freeway constructed by China.
[China’s proposed “Land Sea Express Route”]
As Slovakia and Hungary would realize that the US, NATO and EU are not reliable or trustworthy for their national security, China and Russia could suggest Slovakia and Hungary to leave NATO and become neutral states.
At the same time, China and Russia could suggest Bulgaria to leave NATO and become a neutral state.
Also, China and Russia could suggest Serbia to be a neutral state.
[In case the entire Ukraine becomes a neutral state:
Neutral buffer zones from the border region of Poland and Belarus, through Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary and Serbia to Bulgaria will be established]
[In case a neutral buffer zone is established between Russia’s occupied area (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Crimea) and the western part of Ukraine including Kiev:
Neutral buffer zones from the border region of Poland and Belarus, through Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary and Serbia to Bulgaria will be established]
Thereby, neutral buffer zones would be established from the border region of Poland and Belarus, through Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary and Serbia to Bulgaria. The neutral buffer zones would separate NATO and Russia and prevent them from facing directly, which therefore is expected to ensure lasting permanent peace of Europe.
However, having said that, even if whatever arrangement is reached, the West would ignore it and attack Russia before long just like Nazi Germany ignored the mutual non-aggression treaty with the Soviet. In other words, whatever arrangement is reached, it is only temporary.
Thus, China and Russia should never put their guards off even if neutral buffer zones are set up between NATO and Russia.
Taiwan
China will expect the pro-China Ishiba administration to cooperate and facilitate a reunification of China and Taiwan, which the Ishiba administration will do. PM Ishiba would visit Taiwan to meet Taiwan President Lai Ching-te and suggest him that a peaceful reunification with China is the only choice.
[Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba had visited Taiwan and met with Taiwan President Lai Ching-te in August 2024 before he became PM of Japan]
After the coming meeting with Lai Ching-te, PM Ishiba would publicly state that Japan believes that a peaceful reunification between China and Taiwan is the only choice, sending out the message to the world.
The Middle East
China can mobilize Arab countries of BRICS plus (Iran, UAE and Egypt) and SCO (Iran, Egypt and Saudi Arabia) so that the entire Arab countries would unite to impose severe economic sanctions against Israel to make it stop its aggression and genocide in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.
[China’s FM Wang Yi held talks with the delegation of Arab-Islamic foreign ministers, November 2023]
Russia can supply hypersonic missiles to Hezbollah and Houthis via Iran so that Hezbollah and Houthis will destroy the US and Israel’s military forces and prevent the US and Israel’s aggression and genocide in the Middle East.
[Russia’s “Tsirkon” hypersonic anti-ship missile]
China can exert her diplomacy power and economic influence over such countries as Cyprus and Jordan so that China can make these countries refrain from functioning as logistical channels to supply the US and European countries’ weapons and ammunitions to Israel.
South America
China constructed most sophisticated AI automated smart port in Chancay, Peru, which was inaugurated in November 2024. The Chancay Port is expected to contribute to drastically increase trade between South America and Asia. [6]
[Chancay smart port in Chancay, Peru]
China can persuade Peru that Peru’s prosperity would lie in its trade and industrialization, not in aggression into Bolivia to seize Bolivia’s lithium resources.
Brazil, which is a member of BRICS plus can check and warn against Argentina not to embark on invading Bolivia.
[Brazil has the strongest military in South America]
Also, Brazil (a member of BRICS plus) and Bolivia (a BRICS partner) can enter a mutual security treaty.
South Korea
Chinese intelligence organizations can covertly help monitoring the ROK military and provide a warning to the ROK people in an unofficial way so that a coup by the ROK military would be prevented.
Pakistan
Pakistan is a member state of SCO. Also, China has been supporting and promoting Pakistan’s economic growth through Belt and Road Initiative.
China can exert her diplomacy power and economic power to persuade Pakistan not to attack Afghanistan or Iran. China can warn Pakistan that, if Pakistan doesn’t comply, she might have to halt economic investment to and cooperation with Pakistan.
Thank you.
References:
(1) The Lithium Triangle, July 9, 2024, Global Business Reports
(2) “Pakistani airstrikes on Afghanistan kill 46 people, Taliban official says”, December 26, 2024, Reuters
(3) “Russian gas via Ukraine to Slovakia halted”, January 2, 2025, Xinhua
(4) “Poland to supply natural gas to Slovakia via Lithuania LNG terminal”, July 8, 2024, Upstream
(5) “Hungary turns itself into hub for Russian gas”, December 11, 2024, Balkan Insight
(6) ” ‘From Chancay to Shanghai’: New China-Peru BRI project to become hub, gateway port of Latin America”, November 15, 2024, The Global Times
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.