1. Trump will face the far more pro-China world than 4 years ago
Trump has won the US presidential election. He will assume the US presidency from January 2025.
The world nations are embarrassed and preparing for the turbulence of Trump administration. Some countries are changing their governments to cope with selfish, arrogant and forceful way of the Trump administration.
However, what Trump will see is the world that has changed completely since he left the White House 4 years ago. That is the world that has become far more pro-China than 4 years ago.
[President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump]
As a result of that, what Trump can do has become far more limited than 4 years ago. Trump and his cabinet members will speak out anti-China rhetoric loudly with big mouths, but what they can do is only little things. The 47th President will be a "mini-Trump".
2. The Japanese government has turned to pro-China from pro-US
First of all, there is no blindly obedient pro-US PM like Shinzo Abe in Japan anymore. There is no powerful Abe faction or absolute majority of LDP in Japan anymore, which worked for Trump during his first term.
Japanese PM Shinzo Abe was so fanatically obedient to Trump that he visited Trump earlier than anyone else in the world immediately after Trump won 2016 US presidential election and before Trump's inauguration.
[Japanese PM Shinzo Abe visited President-elect Donald Trump even before the presidential inauguration to show his obedience and loyalty, November 2016]
With such a pro-Trump PM like Shinzo Abe in Japan, it was easy for Trump to apply pressure toward China. During the previous Trump administration, QUAD was organized for the purpose of containing China by the US, Japan, Australia and India. QUAD was proposed by PM Shinzo Abe.
Under the Abe of LDP administration, Japan decided to purchase as many as 100 F-35s in order to feed Lockheed Martin regular lucrative income. Under the Abe administration, the security act was enacted in Japan, which enables Japan to fight for the US even against China if the US is attacked and Japan's security is jeopardized.
[Former PM Shinzo Abe, who was fanatically obedient to US President Trump, was shot dead in 2022]
However, the situation has changed very much. Shinzo Abe is not anymore. He was assassinated in 2022.
In addition, after the latest general election of October 27th 2024, most of MPs of Abe faction lost their seats in the Japanese Parliament. Ruling LDP and Komeito-Party does not have the emajority in the Parliament. They need to ask for cooperation to a small party DPFP to form the majority required to pass an legislation and a budget. It's a very weak unstable position.
The current Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba doesn't have strong support both inside or outside of LDP. Instead of him, the current Japanese administration is controlled by two veteran seasoned politicians, i.e., LDP Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama and Vice President of LDP and former PM Yoshihide Suga, who worked together as kingmakers to make Shigeru Ishiba a PM of Japan.
[Mr. Moriyama (left) and Mr. Suga (right) are the king makers that made Mr. Ishiba (center) a Prime Minister of Japan]
[Mr. Moriyama, LDP Secretary General, and Mr. Suga, LDP Vice President and former PM of Japan]
Mr. Moriyama and Mr. Suga are relatively pro-China. Mr. Moriyama visited China in July 2024 and met with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi. It is apparent that Mr. Moriyama succeeded a position of China-Japan friendly channel from former LDP Secretary General Mr. Toshihiro Nikai, who had been working to promote China-Japan business relations for more than a decade.
[Hiroshi Moriyama, Chairman of LDP General Council (at that time) and Wang Yi, Foreign Minister of China, July 2024]
Mr. Suga is pro-China too. When he was a PM of Japan, he stated clearly that a Taiwan issue should be solved through dialogue between China and Taiwan.
Mr. Suga is also a Chairman of the Japan India Association, a foundation to promote Japan and India relations.
Mr. Suga is famous for his high-handed way of warning and threatening Japanese media. He will never allow Japanese TV stations such as NTV and Fuji TV to broadcast anti-China biased news. If they broadcast such news, they would be punished severely.
So, the current Japanese government is likely to promote relations with Asian countries especially China and India rather than the US, which is a desire of the majority of Japanese businesses.
PM Ishiba, who himself have been a political enemy against Abe faction, would fire and kick out of the government bureaucrats and government officials who are close to Abe faction. As a result of that, pro-US and pro-Trump members would be ousted and disappear from the Japanese government.
At the same time, Mr. Moriyama and Mr. Suga are well aware that they need to furnish a pro-US appearance to the government in order to mitigate the US government's skepticism and hostility. So, they appointed some pro-US members to relatively minor positions.
Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, PM Adviser Akihisa Nagashima and Chairman of LDP Policy Research Council Board Itsunori Onodera are relatively pro-US and would work as a channel to the US government. They would say what Trump and his cabinet members would please, but their words would turn out to be only empty promises because PM Ishiba is under the control of Mr. Moriyama and Mr. Suga, who would not allow anti-China policies.
[Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken]
[Chairman of LDP Policy Research Council Board Itsunori Onodera (center) and PM Adviser Akihisa Nagashima (right)]
Japanese Self Defense Forces (JSDF) may keep conducting military exercises with the US military forces, but JSDF's cooperation toward the US forces would be slow and lukewarm.
Trump will surely demand enormous increase of Japan's defense budget. But, unlike the Abe administration, the Ishiba administration would accept only token increase. Rather, the Ishiba administration would demand a more equal status against the US on the matter of national security.
[Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba and US President Donald Trump]
Trump may get furious and threaten PM Ishiba, saying that the US military forces might withdraw from Japan. PM Ishiba knows that such a threat is a mere bluff. Trump's coercive attitude would only result in making Japan and the Japanese people even more closer to China.
The Ishiba administration would pose a question toward the US's demand of deploying the US's medium-range missiles in Japan, explaining that it is not sure whether the deployment would enhance Japan's national security.
[US Air Force's Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan]
[US Air Force's F-22s at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan]
Above all, the Ishiba administration would indicate reluctance and decline to allow the US military to use the US military bases in Japan to intervene Taiwan contingencies, advocating that the Taiwan issue should be solved through dialogue between China and Taiwan.
Without cooperation of Japan, the US would never be able to intervene Taiwan contingency militarily. The pro-China Japanese government is one of the most effective deterrence against the US's military adventurism.
In addition, while Trump was out of the White House, China has been demonstrating through repeated military exercises that China's PLA can surround Taiwan and carry out a blockade effectively. Objectively and militarily speaking, the US's military intervention in Taiwan contingencies is futile and impossible.
[China's PLA can impose naval blockade around Taiwan]
The US's military intervention in Taiwan contingencies, if any, is interference in China's internal affairs and therefore will constitute an aggression and violation of international Law. The US has no legality, no legitimacy, or no military assets to intervene Taiwan contingencies militarily.
Under the Ishiba administration, LDP Secretary General Moriyama and LDP Vice President Suga, China-Japan business cooperation would expand steadily, which will make pro-China Japanese businesses in Japan even more dominating against pro-US businesses and keep working as the strong basis of pro-China government.
3. Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia have become pro-China
During his first term as US President, Trump had had a good personal relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. But, while Trump was out of the White House, Ukraine War broke out. As a result of that, Russia has become closer to and more dependent upon China. Trump will find Putin's attitude toward him become more businesslike rather than personal and amicable.
[President Vladimir Putin and President Xi Jinping]
The US has no choice but accept China's peace plan on Ukraine War that is probably supposed to propose setting up buffer zone between NATO and Russia. There was a news report that Trump is planning to offer a peace plan in which non-military zone should be created between Ukraine and Russia.
As for Israel-Palestine & Lebanon conflict, the US has no choice but accept China's peace plan that insists a two-state solution. During his first term as US President, Trump had destroyed Iran nuclear deal in order to destabilize the Middle East. But, while Trump was out of the White House, China successfully got Saudi Arabia and Iran to reconciliate, which has changed the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East completely.
[Saudi national security adviser Musaad bin Mohammed al-Aiban (Left), China's foreign minister Wang Yi and Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani in Beijing in March 2023]
While Trump was out of the White House, BRICS expanded and became even more powerful. So-called BRICS plus has Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates as new members.
[Egypt President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa, China President Xi Jinping, Russia President Vladimir Putin, India PM Narendra Modi, UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed, Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian at BRICS Summit 2024]
Israel's aggression and genocide will go nowhere. Israel will be isolated and severely criticized by the world nations. The US can never intervene militarily because Iran has hypersonic ballistic missiles against which the US has no defense. If the US intervenes, Iran would destroy the US military forces. The US and Israel have no choice but accept China's peace plan that insists a two-state solution.
4. South America, Africa, ASEAN have become more pro-China too
During his first term, relations between Trump and South American countries was not very amicable already. In 2018, Trump canceled his attendance at the Summit of the Americas, which is a gathering of heads of state that takes place every three years and is organized by the Organization of American States (OAS).
What’s more, while Trump was out of the White House, China constructed a mega smart port in Peru, which was inaugurated in November 2024 while APEC was held in Peru. Before the mega port was made, many products had needed to be transported to North America and exported from there to Asia. The mega port vastly shorten days required for shipping products from South America to Asia. Not only Peru but other South American countries such as Brazil, Chile, Columbia and Bolivia would benefit. Trade between South America and Asia, especially China would expand very much. South American countries will become pro-China more and more in the coming years and decades.
[The Chancay Mega-port, Chancay, Peru]
African nations have been and will be pro-China because, unlike the greedy exploiting Western countries including the US, China has been forging equal win-win relations with African countries and kept building essential infrastructures for decades.
For most of African countries, China is a top exporter and importer.
[President Xi Jinping and African leaders]
While Trump was out of the White House, China-ASEAN economic relations was vastly strengthened. It is only the Philippines that is obedient to the US. Trump and his cabinet members will find that there is little they can do in the South China Sea.
During his first term, Trump had met with Kim Jong Un of DPRK and had a negotiation. But, while Trump was out of the White House, North Korea improved its ballistic missiles even more. North Korea has ratified a landmark mutual defense treaty with Russia.
[Supreme Leader of DPRK Kim Jong Un and President Vladimir Putin]
If Trump resumes a negotiation with DPRK, he will find DPRK much tougher and stronger than before. Therefore, it is likely that Trump would avoid the negotiation.
5. The US's allies go down and move away from the US
Under these pro-China world and surrounded by pro-China countries worldwide, what Trump can do?
In the world far more pro-China than 4 years ago, what Trump and his cabinet members can do is only shouting with big mouths. They have very little to do.
At least, Trump can do his hallmark of bullying against European countries. He will insist that European countries must increase their defense budget and purchase more US weapons.
However, European countries' reactions would be lukewarm at the best. Some countries would even protest openly because European countries are in recession except for those countries having good relations with China such as Hungary.
For example, Britain is in recession. Britain has no bright future, having no promising industries. Britain has no strong EV company, no strong quantum computer company, no strong drone company, or no strong space company. Britain is in decline and will keep declining.
Germany is in recession too. German economy shrank in two consecutive years. German car industry is in trouble because gasoline cars that Germany is strong in manufacturing are fading away, being replaced by EV cars, and China is dominating in manufacturing EV cars.
Germany is so obedient and stupid that it has collapsed its ruling coalition and will have a general election in February. Obviously, Germany is trying to end its pro-Biden government and form a pro-Trump government. Germany is a slave of the US and knows no progress.
France will advocate that Europe should be more independent from the US and strengthen its own Eurocorps. However, as Germany is a slave of the US, Eurocorps will not expand.
For the purpose of threatening European countries and forcing them to accept increase of their defense budget, Trump may withdraw a part of the US military forces stationed in Europe.
6. The Trump administration will reach deadlock as the US economy collapses
In the world far more pro-China than 4 years ago, what Trump and his cabinet members can do is only shouting with big mouths. They have very little to do.
Therefore, until the midterm election of 2026, the Trump administration would concentrate on domestic policies.
As expected, the Trump administration will impose higher tariffs against imported goods especially goods from China. Higher tariffs are actually higher taxes over the American people. Increased revenues would be used to finance swelling defense budget for the profit of the US military industrial complex. The US is essentially military industry complex with a disguise of democracy.
Tax reduction that Trump promised during the election campaign will be wiped out by higher tariffs. It's a scam.
Meanwhile, despite protection by higher tariffs, US domestic manufacturing industries would not revive at all because labor unions would oppose against laying off and firing, and therefore introducing AI and automation in manufacturing industries would be stalled.
Trump's cabinet members are a gathering of junks. Birds of a feather flock together
Trump nominated Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary. He was a biased commentator of Fox news and has no experience of government positions at all. He was a member of National Guard, not regular US army. Therefore, he went to Iraq and Afghanistan only after regular US military forces overwhelmed enemies and peace and stability were secured. He is a chicken hawk.
Using his chicken military career, he was admitted to Kennedy School of Harvard University. However, compared to Harvard Law School and Harvard Business School, Kennedy School is a 3rd rate graduate school, whose purpose is to gather foreign government officials and make them work as pro-US officials after returning to their home countries. Watching videos of his comments and behavior reveals that he is a vulgar ignorant low-IQ person.
Trump nominated Hegseth only for the purpose of liquidating pro-Democrats military generals and admirals and letting him shout loudly with a big mouth anti-China rhetoric so that defense budget would be doubled and the US military industrial complex would be happy. The US can never fight against China because it will be defeated by China.
[Matt Gaetz and Pete Hegseth]
Another rogue is Matt Gaetz. Trump nominated Gaetz as Attorney General only for the purpose of firing pro-Democrats hostile officials in the Justice Department and other law enforcing organizations so that they can never indict Trump and would indict Democrats instead. It is a personal retaliation.
The commonality of Hegseth and Gaetz is that they are loyal to Trump. What Hegseth and Gaetz to Trump is what Haldeman and Ehrlichman to Nixon.
Another commonality is that Hegseth and Gaetz are under sexual assault allegations. They are the worst.
Susie Wiles, a would be Chief of Staff, is an expert of election but has zero experience in diplomacy. Applying her small knowledge on domestic election to diplomacy, she would keep making mistakes.
Trump did not meet with Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba despite PM Ishiba's willingness because Susie Wiles advised Trump not to meet foreign leaders before inauguration. Trump lost opportunity to have a personal amicable relations with PM Ishiba.
[Marco Rubio and Susie Wiles]
Trump nominated Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. Just like Pete Hegseth, all what Rubio can do is shouting with a big mouth anti-China rhetoric. He can do nothing.
Having such low-level fanatic persons in his cabinet, Trump would not be able to do anything effective in his diplomacy. Instead, Trump will be very busily occupied with deteriorating economy conditions of the US.
Boeing would collapse due to its trouble maker 737 Max and its dwindling space department.
[Boeing will keep going down]
US Steel would collapse too because of failure of being taken over by a Japanese steel company and because of unions that vehemently oppose laying off and firing.
[Rusty factories of US Steel]
After pouring billions of dollars tax money into these companies in vain, Boeing and US Steel might be nationalized.
China applies AI to manufacturing and farming and succeeds in making them more effective and efficient. On the other hand, the US applies AI to drafting contract documents and other corporate documents, which results in many mistakes and being sued for expensive damages. The US doesn't know how to make the use of AI.
As a result, US companies will be defeated by Chinese companies everywhere in the world markets.
Lacking excellent engineers, no new excellent weapons is developed in the US while China launches newly developed fighter jets J-35 and J-20, a newly developed aircraft carrier and so on and on.
The American people will suffer due to hyper-inflation caused by tariffs, economic downturn and unemployment. They will regret having voted for Trump.
Hitting deadlocks domestically and internationally, the Trump administration will start blaming each other internally, be broken apart and collapse within years.
Thank you.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
Trump has won the US presidential election. He will assume the US presidency from January 2025.
The world nations are embarrassed and preparing for the turbulence of Trump administration. Some countries are changing their governments to cope with selfish, arrogant and forceful way of the Trump administration.
However, what Trump will see is the world that has changed completely since he left the White House 4 years ago. That is the world that has become far more pro-China than 4 years ago.
[President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump]
As a result of that, what Trump can do has become far more limited than 4 years ago. Trump and his cabinet members will speak out anti-China rhetoric loudly with big mouths, but what they can do is only little things. The 47th President will be a "mini-Trump".
2. The Japanese government has turned to pro-China from pro-US
First of all, there is no blindly obedient pro-US PM like Shinzo Abe in Japan anymore. There is no powerful Abe faction or absolute majority of LDP in Japan anymore, which worked for Trump during his first term.
Japanese PM Shinzo Abe was so fanatically obedient to Trump that he visited Trump earlier than anyone else in the world immediately after Trump won 2016 US presidential election and before Trump's inauguration.
[Japanese PM Shinzo Abe visited President-elect Donald Trump even before the presidential inauguration to show his obedience and loyalty, November 2016]
With such a pro-Trump PM like Shinzo Abe in Japan, it was easy for Trump to apply pressure toward China. During the previous Trump administration, QUAD was organized for the purpose of containing China by the US, Japan, Australia and India. QUAD was proposed by PM Shinzo Abe.
Under the Abe of LDP administration, Japan decided to purchase as many as 100 F-35s in order to feed Lockheed Martin regular lucrative income. Under the Abe administration, the security act was enacted in Japan, which enables Japan to fight for the US even against China if the US is attacked and Japan's security is jeopardized.
[Former PM Shinzo Abe, who was fanatically obedient to US President Trump, was shot dead in 2022]
However, the situation has changed very much. Shinzo Abe is not anymore. He was assassinated in 2022.
In addition, after the latest general election of October 27th 2024, most of MPs of Abe faction lost their seats in the Japanese Parliament. Ruling LDP and Komeito-Party does not have the emajority in the Parliament. They need to ask for cooperation to a small party DPFP to form the majority required to pass an legislation and a budget. It's a very weak unstable position.
The current Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba doesn't have strong support both inside or outside of LDP. Instead of him, the current Japanese administration is controlled by two veteran seasoned politicians, i.e., LDP Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama and Vice President of LDP and former PM Yoshihide Suga, who worked together as kingmakers to make Shigeru Ishiba a PM of Japan.
[Mr. Moriyama (left) and Mr. Suga (right) are the king makers that made Mr. Ishiba (center) a Prime Minister of Japan]
[Mr. Moriyama, LDP Secretary General, and Mr. Suga, LDP Vice President and former PM of Japan]
Mr. Moriyama and Mr. Suga are relatively pro-China. Mr. Moriyama visited China in July 2024 and met with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi. It is apparent that Mr. Moriyama succeeded a position of China-Japan friendly channel from former LDP Secretary General Mr. Toshihiro Nikai, who had been working to promote China-Japan business relations for more than a decade.
[Hiroshi Moriyama, Chairman of LDP General Council (at that time) and Wang Yi, Foreign Minister of China, July 2024]
Mr. Suga is pro-China too. When he was a PM of Japan, he stated clearly that a Taiwan issue should be solved through dialogue between China and Taiwan.
Mr. Suga is also a Chairman of the Japan India Association, a foundation to promote Japan and India relations.
Mr. Suga is famous for his high-handed way of warning and threatening Japanese media. He will never allow Japanese TV stations such as NTV and Fuji TV to broadcast anti-China biased news. If they broadcast such news, they would be punished severely.
So, the current Japanese government is likely to promote relations with Asian countries especially China and India rather than the US, which is a desire of the majority of Japanese businesses.
PM Ishiba, who himself have been a political enemy against Abe faction, would fire and kick out of the government bureaucrats and government officials who are close to Abe faction. As a result of that, pro-US and pro-Trump members would be ousted and disappear from the Japanese government.
At the same time, Mr. Moriyama and Mr. Suga are well aware that they need to furnish a pro-US appearance to the government in order to mitigate the US government's skepticism and hostility. So, they appointed some pro-US members to relatively minor positions.
Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, PM Adviser Akihisa Nagashima and Chairman of LDP Policy Research Council Board Itsunori Onodera are relatively pro-US and would work as a channel to the US government. They would say what Trump and his cabinet members would please, but their words would turn out to be only empty promises because PM Ishiba is under the control of Mr. Moriyama and Mr. Suga, who would not allow anti-China policies.
[Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken]
[Chairman of LDP Policy Research Council Board Itsunori Onodera (center) and PM Adviser Akihisa Nagashima (right)]
Japanese Self Defense Forces (JSDF) may keep conducting military exercises with the US military forces, but JSDF's cooperation toward the US forces would be slow and lukewarm.
Trump will surely demand enormous increase of Japan's defense budget. But, unlike the Abe administration, the Ishiba administration would accept only token increase. Rather, the Ishiba administration would demand a more equal status against the US on the matter of national security.
[Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba and US President Donald Trump]
Trump may get furious and threaten PM Ishiba, saying that the US military forces might withdraw from Japan. PM Ishiba knows that such a threat is a mere bluff. Trump's coercive attitude would only result in making Japan and the Japanese people even more closer to China.
The Ishiba administration would pose a question toward the US's demand of deploying the US's medium-range missiles in Japan, explaining that it is not sure whether the deployment would enhance Japan's national security.
[US Air Force's Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan]
[US Air Force's F-22s at Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan]
Above all, the Ishiba administration would indicate reluctance and decline to allow the US military to use the US military bases in Japan to intervene Taiwan contingencies, advocating that the Taiwan issue should be solved through dialogue between China and Taiwan.
Without cooperation of Japan, the US would never be able to intervene Taiwan contingency militarily. The pro-China Japanese government is one of the most effective deterrence against the US's military adventurism.
In addition, while Trump was out of the White House, China has been demonstrating through repeated military exercises that China's PLA can surround Taiwan and carry out a blockade effectively. Objectively and militarily speaking, the US's military intervention in Taiwan contingencies is futile and impossible.
[China's PLA can impose naval blockade around Taiwan]
The US's military intervention in Taiwan contingencies, if any, is interference in China's internal affairs and therefore will constitute an aggression and violation of international Law. The US has no legality, no legitimacy, or no military assets to intervene Taiwan contingencies militarily.
Under the Ishiba administration, LDP Secretary General Moriyama and LDP Vice President Suga, China-Japan business cooperation would expand steadily, which will make pro-China Japanese businesses in Japan even more dominating against pro-US businesses and keep working as the strong basis of pro-China government.
3. Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia have become pro-China
During his first term as US President, Trump had had a good personal relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. But, while Trump was out of the White House, Ukraine War broke out. As a result of that, Russia has become closer to and more dependent upon China. Trump will find Putin's attitude toward him become more businesslike rather than personal and amicable.
[President Vladimir Putin and President Xi Jinping]
The US has no choice but accept China's peace plan on Ukraine War that is probably supposed to propose setting up buffer zone between NATO and Russia. There was a news report that Trump is planning to offer a peace plan in which non-military zone should be created between Ukraine and Russia.
As for Israel-Palestine & Lebanon conflict, the US has no choice but accept China's peace plan that insists a two-state solution. During his first term as US President, Trump had destroyed Iran nuclear deal in order to destabilize the Middle East. But, while Trump was out of the White House, China successfully got Saudi Arabia and Iran to reconciliate, which has changed the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East completely.
[Saudi national security adviser Musaad bin Mohammed al-Aiban (Left), China's foreign minister Wang Yi and Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani in Beijing in March 2023]
While Trump was out of the White House, BRICS expanded and became even more powerful. So-called BRICS plus has Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates as new members.
[Egypt President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa, China President Xi Jinping, Russia President Vladimir Putin, India PM Narendra Modi, UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed, Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian at BRICS Summit 2024]
Israel's aggression and genocide will go nowhere. Israel will be isolated and severely criticized by the world nations. The US can never intervene militarily because Iran has hypersonic ballistic missiles against which the US has no defense. If the US intervenes, Iran would destroy the US military forces. The US and Israel have no choice but accept China's peace plan that insists a two-state solution.
4. South America, Africa, ASEAN have become more pro-China too
During his first term, relations between Trump and South American countries was not very amicable already. In 2018, Trump canceled his attendance at the Summit of the Americas, which is a gathering of heads of state that takes place every three years and is organized by the Organization of American States (OAS).
What’s more, while Trump was out of the White House, China constructed a mega smart port in Peru, which was inaugurated in November 2024 while APEC was held in Peru. Before the mega port was made, many products had needed to be transported to North America and exported from there to Asia. The mega port vastly shorten days required for shipping products from South America to Asia. Not only Peru but other South American countries such as Brazil, Chile, Columbia and Bolivia would benefit. Trade between South America and Asia, especially China would expand very much. South American countries will become pro-China more and more in the coming years and decades.
[The Chancay Mega-port, Chancay, Peru]
African nations have been and will be pro-China because, unlike the greedy exploiting Western countries including the US, China has been forging equal win-win relations with African countries and kept building essential infrastructures for decades.
For most of African countries, China is a top exporter and importer.
[President Xi Jinping and African leaders]
While Trump was out of the White House, China-ASEAN economic relations was vastly strengthened. It is only the Philippines that is obedient to the US. Trump and his cabinet members will find that there is little they can do in the South China Sea.
During his first term, Trump had met with Kim Jong Un of DPRK and had a negotiation. But, while Trump was out of the White House, North Korea improved its ballistic missiles even more. North Korea has ratified a landmark mutual defense treaty with Russia.
[Supreme Leader of DPRK Kim Jong Un and President Vladimir Putin]
If Trump resumes a negotiation with DPRK, he will find DPRK much tougher and stronger than before. Therefore, it is likely that Trump would avoid the negotiation.
5. The US's allies go down and move away from the US
Under these pro-China world and surrounded by pro-China countries worldwide, what Trump can do?
In the world far more pro-China than 4 years ago, what Trump and his cabinet members can do is only shouting with big mouths. They have very little to do.
At least, Trump can do his hallmark of bullying against European countries. He will insist that European countries must increase their defense budget and purchase more US weapons.
However, European countries' reactions would be lukewarm at the best. Some countries would even protest openly because European countries are in recession except for those countries having good relations with China such as Hungary.
For example, Britain is in recession. Britain has no bright future, having no promising industries. Britain has no strong EV company, no strong quantum computer company, no strong drone company, or no strong space company. Britain is in decline and will keep declining.
Germany is in recession too. German economy shrank in two consecutive years. German car industry is in trouble because gasoline cars that Germany is strong in manufacturing are fading away, being replaced by EV cars, and China is dominating in manufacturing EV cars.
Germany is so obedient and stupid that it has collapsed its ruling coalition and will have a general election in February. Obviously, Germany is trying to end its pro-Biden government and form a pro-Trump government. Germany is a slave of the US and knows no progress.
France will advocate that Europe should be more independent from the US and strengthen its own Eurocorps. However, as Germany is a slave of the US, Eurocorps will not expand.
For the purpose of threatening European countries and forcing them to accept increase of their defense budget, Trump may withdraw a part of the US military forces stationed in Europe.
6. The Trump administration will reach deadlock as the US economy collapses
In the world far more pro-China than 4 years ago, what Trump and his cabinet members can do is only shouting with big mouths. They have very little to do.
Therefore, until the midterm election of 2026, the Trump administration would concentrate on domestic policies.
As expected, the Trump administration will impose higher tariffs against imported goods especially goods from China. Higher tariffs are actually higher taxes over the American people. Increased revenues would be used to finance swelling defense budget for the profit of the US military industrial complex. The US is essentially military industry complex with a disguise of democracy.
Tax reduction that Trump promised during the election campaign will be wiped out by higher tariffs. It's a scam.
Meanwhile, despite protection by higher tariffs, US domestic manufacturing industries would not revive at all because labor unions would oppose against laying off and firing, and therefore introducing AI and automation in manufacturing industries would be stalled.
Trump's cabinet members are a gathering of junks. Birds of a feather flock together
Trump nominated Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary. He was a biased commentator of Fox news and has no experience of government positions at all. He was a member of National Guard, not regular US army. Therefore, he went to Iraq and Afghanistan only after regular US military forces overwhelmed enemies and peace and stability were secured. He is a chicken hawk.
Using his chicken military career, he was admitted to Kennedy School of Harvard University. However, compared to Harvard Law School and Harvard Business School, Kennedy School is a 3rd rate graduate school, whose purpose is to gather foreign government officials and make them work as pro-US officials after returning to their home countries. Watching videos of his comments and behavior reveals that he is a vulgar ignorant low-IQ person.
Trump nominated Hegseth only for the purpose of liquidating pro-Democrats military generals and admirals and letting him shout loudly with a big mouth anti-China rhetoric so that defense budget would be doubled and the US military industrial complex would be happy. The US can never fight against China because it will be defeated by China.
[Matt Gaetz and Pete Hegseth]
Another rogue is Matt Gaetz. Trump nominated Gaetz as Attorney General only for the purpose of firing pro-Democrats hostile officials in the Justice Department and other law enforcing organizations so that they can never indict Trump and would indict Democrats instead. It is a personal retaliation.
The commonality of Hegseth and Gaetz is that they are loyal to Trump. What Hegseth and Gaetz to Trump is what Haldeman and Ehrlichman to Nixon.
Another commonality is that Hegseth and Gaetz are under sexual assault allegations. They are the worst.
Susie Wiles, a would be Chief of Staff, is an expert of election but has zero experience in diplomacy. Applying her small knowledge on domestic election to diplomacy, she would keep making mistakes.
Trump did not meet with Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba despite PM Ishiba's willingness because Susie Wiles advised Trump not to meet foreign leaders before inauguration. Trump lost opportunity to have a personal amicable relations with PM Ishiba.
[Marco Rubio and Susie Wiles]
Trump nominated Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. Just like Pete Hegseth, all what Rubio can do is shouting with a big mouth anti-China rhetoric. He can do nothing.
Having such low-level fanatic persons in his cabinet, Trump would not be able to do anything effective in his diplomacy. Instead, Trump will be very busily occupied with deteriorating economy conditions of the US.
Boeing would collapse due to its trouble maker 737 Max and its dwindling space department.
[Boeing will keep going down]
US Steel would collapse too because of failure of being taken over by a Japanese steel company and because of unions that vehemently oppose laying off and firing.
[Rusty factories of US Steel]
After pouring billions of dollars tax money into these companies in vain, Boeing and US Steel might be nationalized.
China applies AI to manufacturing and farming and succeeds in making them more effective and efficient. On the other hand, the US applies AI to drafting contract documents and other corporate documents, which results in many mistakes and being sued for expensive damages. The US doesn't know how to make the use of AI.
As a result, US companies will be defeated by Chinese companies everywhere in the world markets.
Lacking excellent engineers, no new excellent weapons is developed in the US while China launches newly developed fighter jets J-35 and J-20, a newly developed aircraft carrier and so on and on.
The American people will suffer due to hyper-inflation caused by tariffs, economic downturn and unemployment. They will regret having voted for Trump.
Hitting deadlocks domestically and internationally, the Trump administration will start blaming each other internally, be broken apart and collapse within years.
Thank you.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.