【Summary】
Israel is committing a brutal genocide and aggression in Gaza. The US is attacking Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria and the Houthis in Yemen. The US and Israel are trying to escalate the tension in the Middle East and draw Iran into a conflict.
Thus, in order to ensure the two state solution and peace and stability in the Middle East, China can hold an international peace conference, in which she proposes enlargement of buffer zone between Israel and Palestine, where BRICS, SCO and the global south send troops as UN peace-keeping forces.
If the US and Israel do not stop their attempt to escalate the conflict by attacking the Houthis and provoking Iran, Russia can lease its sophisticated weapons to Iran. Then, Iran can transfer them to the Houthis.
China, BRICS, SCO and the global south should continue to work together through the UN to supervise and regulate US/UK's proxies and quasi-proxies such as Israel, Ukraine and Japan.
【Text】
1. The US's attempt to escalate the tension in the Middle East
On February 3rd, the US carried out airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen yet again. This was its third attack against the Houthis. [1]
Obviously, the US is trying to gradually and deliberately escalate the tension in the Middle East.
[F/A-18 fighter jets from the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier took part in the strikes of February 3rd]
[Missiles were launched from US warships]
A day before the attack against the Houthis, on February 2nd, the US attacked Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Styria. [2]
[On February 2nd, B-1B Lancer long-range bombers flew an intercontinental combat mission from Dyess AFB in Texas to strike targets in Iraq and Syria]
Meanwhile, as the tension in the Middle East is intensfying, Antony Blinken is hastily making his 5th trip to the Middle East since October 7th. Ostensibly, he is making diplomatic efforts, trying to de-escalate the tension. It's a lie. As mentioned above, the US is gradually and deliberately escalating the tension in the Middle East.
[US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arriving in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, February 5th]
Actually, it is likely that Antony Blinken is suggesting to Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia that, if they really want Israel to stop genocide in Gaza, they should normalize relations with Israel. It is not persuasion but intimidation. [3]
Judging from the way the situation is being developed, it is probable that the White House is rather being driven and taken initiative by the US military especially CENTCOM that wants to gradually and deliberately escalate the tension in the Middle East.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was hospitalized in December 2023 without President Biden knowing about it. It might have been a warning to Biden that the US military can act independently if it likes. Lloyd Austin was a commander of CENTCOM from 2013 to 2016. The US military industrial complex seems to be masterminding behind the scene.
[US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Charles Brown attended the Israel War Cabinet meeting for coordination, December 2023] [4]
Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu and the US military industrial complex might be secretly communicating and conspiring to escalate the tension in the Middle East, bypassing the White House. Netanyahu wants to survive as a PM, diverting Israeli people's attention from his super-unpopular judicial reform. The US military industrial complex wants to destabilize the Middle East because it will increase demand for US weapons. It's a quiet coup so to speak.
According to a news report, facing disobedient and defiant Netanyahu, Biden got frustrated and did not call him for more than 20 days. [5]
[Biden and Netanyahu, not very friendly relations]
As the tension in the Middle East is escalating, finally, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan commented, "From the perspective of Tehran, if they chose to respond directly to the United States, they would be met with a swift and forceful response from us." [6]
[US national security adviser Jake Sullivan commenting on a condition on which the US would attack Iran]
Considering its past records of triggering a number of wars, it would be fair to say that there is a possibility that the US would stage a false-flag operation, in which the US will destroy its own warships or warplanes and claim that Iran attacked. Then, WW3 will break out.
Under these circumstances, China should expedite her efforts to deescalate the tension in the Middle East. China should expedite the Middle East peace conference to prevent the global war.
And, if what is suspected as the US's false-flag operation should happen, China should demand UN Security Council to set up an investigation committee to investigate the incident in detail.
In case the US vetoes against setting up the investigation committee, China, BRICS and SCO, gaining a consent resolution by UN General Assembly, should conduct an independent investigation.
2. China is a peace maker. The US is a warmonger
China expands peace in the Middle East while the US wants to destabilize the Middle East.
China brokered reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023. China vastly advanced the peace and stability in the Middle East. [7]
[Saudi national security adviser Musaad bin Mohammed al-Aiban (Left), Wang Yi, China's most senior diplomat and Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Beijing, March 2023]
In January 2024, Saudi Arabia and Iran, along with Egypt, UAE, Ethiopia, joined BRICS. BRICS expanded, welcoming countries from the Middle East and Africa. [8]
As relations between Arab countries and Iran was getting improved steadily, the tide of peace and stability was expanding in the Middle East.
The US doesn't like it. The US wants to destabilize the Middle East so that Arab countries would depend upon the US and that Iran would be isolated. "Divide and rule" is the maxim the US adheres to. Wars and conflicts increase demands for US weapons, which the US military industrial complex desires. Also, wars and conflicts make the oil and gas prices go up, which provides windfall profits to US oil and gas companies.
[President Biden visiting Lockheed Martin's plant]
Thus, the US has welcomed and supported Israel's attack against Palestine. Israel is a US/UK's proxy installed to destabilize the Middle East.
Also, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu needed a conflict because his judicial reform had been so unpopular in Israel that he wanted to divert Israeli people's attention to something else.
What was weird about Hamas' surprise missile attack against Israel on October 7th 2023 was that Israel's Mossad hadn't noticed about it in advance and that Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system wasn't operated against incoming missiles at all. There is a possibility that the incident was Israel's false flag operation.
[Immediately after the war had begun, US President Joe Biden met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to find out Netanyahu's intention and a war plan, in Tel Aviv, Israel on October 18th 2023]
Using as a pretext Hamas' surprise missile attack that killed at least 250 people and wounded 1,500, Israel launched an all-out attack against Gaza, killing Gaza citizens indiscriminately.
As of January 7th 2024, Gaza’s ministry of health reports that at least 22,835 Palestinians had been killed, with another 58,416 reportedly injured. It is estimated 70% are women and children. About 7,000 more are missing under rubble and most are likely dead. [9]
By definition, what Israel is doing is genocide, exceeding far beyond self-defense. It is a war crime, blatantly violating international laws. It is a crime against humanity.
Accordingly, South Africa, a member of BRICS, indicted Israel to the International Court of Justice, insisting that Israel is committing genocide. [10]
Meanwhile, the US, instead of restraining Israel, acquiesces and allows Israel to continue the genocide, supporting Israel and supplying weapons and ammunitions.
[The US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution draft for a ceasefire in Gaza]
The US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution draft calling for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza, which means the US is and will be supporting Israel's genocide in Gaza. [11]
3. Iran's just support to Palestine people
Iran has been expressing its support for Palestine since the war began. Iran condemned Israel, insisting Arab Islamic countries to impose sanctions against Israel.
For the purpose of hampering Israel's war efforts, the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen has started missile and drone attacks against Israel-related ships in the Red Sea. As a result, the Red Sea has become impassable for commercial shipping. Israel can not import goods through the Red Sea.
[Strategic maritime choke points in Europe, Africa and the Middle East]
Furthermore, Iran is advocating shutting off the Strait of Gibraltar, thereby preventing Israel from importing goods through the Mediterranean, completing a blockade against Israel. [12]
[US air and naval bases in the Middle East]
Also, since October 2023, Iran-backed militias carried out more than one hundred attacks on US military bases and facilities in Syria and Iraq. Iran knows better than anyone else that it is the US that masterminds the destabilization of the Middle East. [13]
4. The US and Israel's attacks against Iran and Iran-related groups
The US and Israel retaliated against Iran by attacking Iran-related groups and forces.
On December 25th 2023, Israel killed Iran's top commander in Syria, Seyed Razi Mousavi, by an airstrike in a Damascus neighborhood . Iran has pledged to retaliate against Israel. [14]
[Iranian mourners hold up a photo of Seyed Razi Mousavi who was an Iran's top commander in Syria]
On January 3rd, two explosions killed 103 people and wounded scores at a ceremony held in Iran to commemorate Revolutionary Guards general Qassem Soleimani who was killed by a US drone in 2020. ISIS, which is supposed to have been fostered by the US, claimed the responsibility. [15]
[The commemoration ceremony on the 4th anniversary of General Qassem Soleimani's martyrdom was held at the Martyrs Cemetery in Kerman, Iran]
[The scene of explosions during a ceremony held to mark the martyrdom anniversary of former IRGC General Qassem Soleimani in Kerman, Iran]
On January 4th, the US military launched a retaliatory strike in Baghdad that killed a militia leader and a former commander it blames for recent attacks on U.S. personnel. [16]
[Mushtaq Talib al-Saeedi was a former commander of an Iranian proxy group in Iraq]
The Pentagon said the individuals targeted were Mushtaq Jawad Kazim al Jawari (a leader) and Mushtaq Talib al-Saeedi (a former commander) of an Iranian proxy group responsible for attacks against U.S. personnel.
Obviously, the US and Israel are trying to draw Iran into a war step by step. If Iran is drawn into a war, the conflict will become WW3, stopping oil export from the Middle East.
Finally, on January 12th, the US and UK military attacked the Houthis in Yemen. More than a dozen Houthi targets were attacked by missiles fired from air, surface warship and submarine platforms. [17]
[F/A-18s launched from a US aircraft carrier]
[A missile launched from a US warship]
[The US and UK struck 60 targets in 16 locations of the Houthis in Yemen]
And, on the next day January 13th, the US made another strike against the Houthis in Yemen.
The Houthis vowed strong retaliation.
The US and UK's attack against the Houthis will surely lead to further escalation and expansion of the conflict.
If the Houthis attacks US warships, the US may retaliate against Iran itself, attacking Iran homeland.
5. The US's fundamental strategy to destroy China
China might have been regarding Israel's genocide in Gaza only as a tragedy of Palestine people. However, it is actually a prelude of the US's global war against China.
The US has come to a conclusion that it would not be able to victorious against China in a Taiwan war because China has advantage of fighting from home station while the US has disadvantage of logistics problem. [18]
Therefore, presumably, the US has decided to wage a broader regional or even global fight against China over control of the sea lines of communication because the US could possibly defeat China in a simultaneous multi-concurrent global warfare, which, in other words, is WW3.
With this regard, allow me to make a relatively lengthy quote from the Brookings Institution's article "America can’t afford to ignore the logistics triad". [19]
//quote//
In the modern American defense debate, with its emphasis on great power competition and, most specifically, the deterrence of China, a number of military capabilities are getting lots of attention. They include hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence, precision munitions, long-range stealth bombers, and submarines. Less sexy, but just as crucial are military logistics — the systems that deploy forces around the world and supply them with the water, fuel, ammunition, food, spare parts, medical care, and other essentials needed to make them effective in combat. If the United States fights China in the Western Pacific, the Chinese can fight from “home station.” That advantage drastically reduces their logistics challenges relative to those faced by the United States (though if the United States can transform the conflict into a broader regional fight over control of the sea lines of communication, the challenges faced by the two sides may be comparable).
//unquote//
This is exactly what the US is trying to do against China.
The US and Israel are now trying to provoke and draw Iran into actual military combat. Israel keeps committing brutal inhuman genocide in Gaza, and the US doesn't persuade Israel to stop the genocide. The US started attack against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.
The US will escalate the conflict by finally attacking the Iranian mainland here and there, and Iran will counter by attacking US military bases in the Middle East such as Bahrain, exchanging missiles each other.
Then, the Strait of Hormuz will be shut down. Half of China’s oil imports, and a little more than a third of all the oil burned in China, comes from the Persian Gulf. Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz will stop China's oil import from the Middle East, which will be an extremely major economic blow to China. [20]
The stoppage of oil import from the Middle East will cause serious economic and social disruption in China, which the US will attempt to make the most of in order to destabilize and ultimately topple the Chinese Communist government, mobilizing saboteurs and agents implanted in China and driving Chinese people toward antigovernmental protests.
In Taiwan's presidential election of January 13th 2024, a pro-independence DPP candidate Lai Ching-te won. The US can let him declare Taiwan's de facto or even formal independence to provoke China into a military conflict exactly when China has a trouble of importing oil from the Middle East. Japan and the Philippines will join the US's intervention in the Taiwan crisis. In early February, Japan designated China as "a hypothetical enemy" in US-Japan military exercise. [21]
The wars and conflicts will spread from Ukraine to the Middle East and Asia. It will be WW3.
This is a fundamental US strategy. It doesn't change whether Biden remains to be the US President or Trump snatches the US presidency from Biden. Whoever becomes the US President, the US's fundamental strategy won't change.
6. China's diplomatic counter-actions against the US
Under these circumstances, China should immediately revive and strengthen the tide of the peace and stability in the Middle East.
China has been calling for a ceasefire of the Israel and Palestine conflict since the war began.
China has expressed her concern on escalation of tension in the Red Sea and urged all parties to exercise restraint to prevent the conflict from expanding.
To prevent further escalation of the conflict, China can hold an international conference on the Gaza and Red Sea conflict, inviting BRICS, SCO and the Global South.
[The 15th BRICS Summit held in South Africa in August 2023]
At the conference, China can propose an enlargement of buffer zone between Israel and Palestine where BRICS, SCO and the Global South will send troops as UN peace-keeping forces.
Israel already set up 1 kilometer-width buffer zone between Israel and Palestine. However, it was set up on the side of Palestine territoriy, diminishing Palestine area. It didn't work to prevent a conflict as Israel itself trespassed the buffer zone. [22]
[Existing Israel/Palestine buffer zone enforced by Israel is as narrow as 1 kilometer and does not work]
China can propose significant enlargement of the buffer zone in the direction of Israel territory too so that sufficient space will be created. China can also propose that BRICS, SCO and the Global South will send troops as UN peace-keeping forces to stay in the enlarged buffer zone and ensure the peace and stability.
If the US and Israel don't accept China's proposal, continuing their attempt to escalate the conflict, China, BRICS, SCO and the Global South, especially Arab Islamic countries should impose utmost sanctions against Israel.
[China and Arab-Islamic countries foreign ministers' talk held in Beijing, China in November 2023]
Also, Arab Islamic countries should boycott and reduce importing US weapons, which will be a significant blow to the US military industrial complex.
At the same time, China needs to minimize impact of the stoppage of oil and gas export from the Middle East.
China needs to make agreements with Russia and oil and gas producing countries in Africa and Asia such as Algeria, Angola and Egypt so that, if oil and gas export from the Middle East is stopped, China would be able to procure increased amount of oil and gas from these countries at predetermined prices.
For example, Russia would divert oil and gas that were bound for Japan and export them to China instead.
China, BRICS, SCO and the Global South should continue to work together through the UN to supervise and regulate US/UK's proxies and quasi-proxies such as Israel, Ukraine and Japan.
7. Iran-backed militias and Hezbollah would shift their targets to US and Israel's supply lines
Iran should not be provoked by the US and Israel. If Iran-backed militias keep attacking US military bases, the US would stage a false-flag operation to gain an excuse to attack Iran's mainland.
Under these circumstances, it is likely that Iran would suggest Iran-backed militias in Iraq to stop attacking US military bases and shift targets to supply lines for US military assets in the Middle East.
A war is all about logistics. The best way to neutralize military forces is to cut off their supply lines. Supply lines are much easier to attack and very difficult to defend. It is likely that Iran-backed militias would shift their targets to supply lines for US military assets in the Middle East, which would gradually and effectively undermine and neutralize US military presence in the Middle East. [23][24]
[Supply lines are vulnerable and very difficult to defend]
[Massive amount of road-side bombs and drones would be used to cripple US supply lines]
Russia may provide precious intelligence to Iran as to how the US is supplying its military forces in the Middle East and which parts of supply lines are most vulnerable and effective to attack.
If Iran-backed militias shift their attack to US supply lines, it would be difficult for the US to escalate the tension in the Middle East. As long as US military bases are attacked, the US can retaliate by conspicuous air-bombardment and missile attack to escalate the tension. But, if supply lines are attacked, the US will find it difficult to make a showy retaliation. Attack against supply lines are less obvious but most effective to neutralize US military forces.
Also, Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon may deploy anti-ship missiles and drones and start attacking Israeli shipping in the Mediterranean.
[Haifa is Israel's major seaport located on the Mediterranean coastline]
Hezbollah may deploy anti-air missiles too and start attacking transport planes by which military supplies are transported into Israel.
Israel's supply lines via the Red Sea, the Mediterranean and air might be choked. Israel's war-fighting capabilities would be hampered significantly.
8. Military deterrence against the US and Israel with sophisticated weapons
The US and Israel understand only power and money. So, ultimately, the most effective way to deter them is to let them taste the power of superior weapons.
When the US and UK attacked the Houthis in Yemen, Russia strongly condemned them. [25]
So, if, despite China's diplomatic counter-actions, the US and Israel do not stop their attempt to escalate the conflict by attacking the Houthis and provoking Iran into a war, Russia can lease its sophisticated weapons to Iran. Then, Iran can transfer them to the Houthis.
For example, Russia can lease its S-400 anti-air and anti-missile defense systems to Iran. Then, Iran can transfer them to the Houthis. Russian volunteer technicians will operate the systems. S-400 will shoot down F/A-18s launched from US aircraft carriers. F/A-18s are not stealth fighters. So, they are easy preys for S-400. Also, S-400 will shoot down Tomahawk missiles launched from US submarines. Tomahawk missiles fly at subsonic speed. So, they are easy preys for S-400.
[Russia's S-400 anti-air and anti-missile defense systems]
[F/A-18 launched from a US aircraft carrier]
[A US attack submarine launching Tomahawk missiles while submerging]
Russia can lease its Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missiles to Iran. Then, Iran transfer them to the Houthis. Russian volunteer technicians will operate the systems. Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missiles will hit and sink US aircraft carriers. The US has no defense against Tsircon.
[Russia's Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missile]
[USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69)]
Russia can lease its RPK-6 missile torpedoes to Iran. Then, Iran can transfer them to the Houthis. Russian volunteer technicians will operate the systems. The Red Sea is narrow. RPK-6 missile torpedoes will detect and kill US attack submarines that launch Tomahawk missiles against the Houthis.
[Missile torpedoes detect and kill submarines]
Losing its F/A-18s, aircraft carriers and attack submarines one after another, the US will finally accept ceasefire in Gaza as well as the two state solution and enlarged buffer zone between Israel and Palestine guarded by UN peace-keeping forces.
If even the Houthis, which is an organization based upon the local tribe, can destroy the US’s F/A-18s, aircraft carriers and attack submarines, it means any country can destroy the US’s warplanes and warships. The US’s military hegemony, which the US believes it has, will be broken apart.
The Western countries’ centuries of imperialistic aggression and suppression will be finished. Relations between countries will become fair and equal based upon win-win relations and mutual respect.
The tide of the peace and stability will once again prevail and remain throughout the Middle East under the leadership and auspices of China, BRICS, SCO and the Global South.
Thank you.
References:
(1) "US and UK strike Houthi targets in Yemen one day after US strikes in Iraq and Syria", February 4th 2024, CNN
(2) "US strikes Iranian militants in Iraq and Syria in response to deadly drone attack in Jordan", February 2nd 2024, POLITICO
(3) "Blinken meets Saudi crown prince amid heightened Mideast tensions", February 6th 2024, Reuters
(4) Statements by PM Netanyahu and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, December 18th 2023, Prime Minister's Office of Israel
(5) "Biden losing patience with Israel's Netanyahu over Gaza: Report", January 14th 2024, Anadolu Agency
(6) "US plans 'more action' after striking militants in response to killing of 3 American troops", February 5th 2024, ABC News
(7) "Iran, Saudi Arabia agree to resume ties, with China’s help", March 11th 2023, AP
(8) "Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Ethiopia formally join BRICS", January 1st 2024, Daily News Egypt
(9) "The numbers that reveal the extent of the destruction in Gaza", January 8th 2024, The Guardian
(10) "South Africa tells top UN court Israel is committing genocide in Gaza as landmark case begins", January 12th 2024, AP
(11) "US blocks UN Security Council demand for humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza", December 9th 2023, Reuters
(12) "Iran threatens Mediterranean closure over Gaza, without saying how", December 19th 2023, Reuters
(13) "Attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria (2023–present)", Wikipedia
(14) "IRGC threatens ‘direct action’ against Israel over senior commander’s slaying", December 19th 2023, Reuters
(15) "Now the truth emerges: how the US fuelled the rise of Isis in Syria and Iraq", June 3rd 2015, The Guardian
(16) "US claims deadly strike against pro-Iran militia in Baghdad", January 4th 2024, Rudaw
(17) "Ike’s Carrier Air Wing 3, USS Gravely, USS Philippine Sea and USS Mason Struck Houthi Targets", January 12th 2024, USNI News
(18) The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan, January 2023, CSIS
(19) "America can’t afford to ignore the logistics triad", July 2023, Brookings Institution
(20) "China’s Economic Stake in the Middle East: Its Thirst for Oil", October 11th 2023, The New York Times
(21) 「『中国』明示し日米初演習 台湾有事の作戦計画反映へ」、２０２４年２月４日、共同通信
(22) " 'Buffer zone' reducing Palestinian agricultural land in Gaza", June 16th 2008, The New Humanitarian
(23) "Supply lines vital to US campaign", March 28th 2003, BBC
(24) "This Is What A Homemade Bomb Can Do To The Army's Toughest Truck", May 10th 2012, Business Insider
(25) "Russia condemns US and UK for 'irresponsible' strikes on Yemen", January 12th 2024, Reuters
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
Israel is committing a brutal genocide and aggression in Gaza. The US is attacking Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria and the Houthis in Yemen. The US and Israel are trying to escalate the tension in the Middle East and draw Iran into a conflict.
Thus, in order to ensure the two state solution and peace and stability in the Middle East, China can hold an international peace conference, in which she proposes enlargement of buffer zone between Israel and Palestine, where BRICS, SCO and the global south send troops as UN peace-keeping forces.
If the US and Israel do not stop their attempt to escalate the conflict by attacking the Houthis and provoking Iran, Russia can lease its sophisticated weapons to Iran. Then, Iran can transfer them to the Houthis.
China, BRICS, SCO and the global south should continue to work together through the UN to supervise and regulate US/UK's proxies and quasi-proxies such as Israel, Ukraine and Japan.
【Text】
1. The US's attempt to escalate the tension in the Middle East
On February 3rd, the US carried out airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen yet again. This was its third attack against the Houthis. [1]
Obviously, the US is trying to gradually and deliberately escalate the tension in the Middle East.
[F/A-18 fighter jets from the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier took part in the strikes of February 3rd]
[Missiles were launched from US warships]
A day before the attack against the Houthis, on February 2nd, the US attacked Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Styria. [2]
[On February 2nd, B-1B Lancer long-range bombers flew an intercontinental combat mission from Dyess AFB in Texas to strike targets in Iraq and Syria]
Meanwhile, as the tension in the Middle East is intensfying, Antony Blinken is hastily making his 5th trip to the Middle East since October 7th. Ostensibly, he is making diplomatic efforts, trying to de-escalate the tension. It's a lie. As mentioned above, the US is gradually and deliberately escalating the tension in the Middle East.
[US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arriving in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, February 5th]
Actually, it is likely that Antony Blinken is suggesting to Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia that, if they really want Israel to stop genocide in Gaza, they should normalize relations with Israel. It is not persuasion but intimidation. [3]
Judging from the way the situation is being developed, it is probable that the White House is rather being driven and taken initiative by the US military especially CENTCOM that wants to gradually and deliberately escalate the tension in the Middle East.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was hospitalized in December 2023 without President Biden knowing about it. It might have been a warning to Biden that the US military can act independently if it likes. Lloyd Austin was a commander of CENTCOM from 2013 to 2016. The US military industrial complex seems to be masterminding behind the scene.
[US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Charles Brown attended the Israel War Cabinet meeting for coordination, December 2023] [4]
Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu and the US military industrial complex might be secretly communicating and conspiring to escalate the tension in the Middle East, bypassing the White House. Netanyahu wants to survive as a PM, diverting Israeli people's attention from his super-unpopular judicial reform. The US military industrial complex wants to destabilize the Middle East because it will increase demand for US weapons. It's a quiet coup so to speak.
According to a news report, facing disobedient and defiant Netanyahu, Biden got frustrated and did not call him for more than 20 days. [5]
[Biden and Netanyahu, not very friendly relations]
As the tension in the Middle East is escalating, finally, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan commented, "From the perspective of Tehran, if they chose to respond directly to the United States, they would be met with a swift and forceful response from us." [6]
[US national security adviser Jake Sullivan commenting on a condition on which the US would attack Iran]
Considering its past records of triggering a number of wars, it would be fair to say that there is a possibility that the US would stage a false-flag operation, in which the US will destroy its own warships or warplanes and claim that Iran attacked. Then, WW3 will break out.
Under these circumstances, China should expedite her efforts to deescalate the tension in the Middle East. China should expedite the Middle East peace conference to prevent the global war.
And, if what is suspected as the US's false-flag operation should happen, China should demand UN Security Council to set up an investigation committee to investigate the incident in detail.
In case the US vetoes against setting up the investigation committee, China, BRICS and SCO, gaining a consent resolution by UN General Assembly, should conduct an independent investigation.
2. China is a peace maker. The US is a warmonger
China expands peace in the Middle East while the US wants to destabilize the Middle East.
China brokered reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023. China vastly advanced the peace and stability in the Middle East. [7]
[Saudi national security adviser Musaad bin Mohammed al-Aiban (Left), Wang Yi, China's most senior diplomat and Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Beijing, March 2023]
In January 2024, Saudi Arabia and Iran, along with Egypt, UAE, Ethiopia, joined BRICS. BRICS expanded, welcoming countries from the Middle East and Africa. [8]
As relations between Arab countries and Iran was getting improved steadily, the tide of peace and stability was expanding in the Middle East.
The US doesn't like it. The US wants to destabilize the Middle East so that Arab countries would depend upon the US and that Iran would be isolated. "Divide and rule" is the maxim the US adheres to. Wars and conflicts increase demands for US weapons, which the US military industrial complex desires. Also, wars and conflicts make the oil and gas prices go up, which provides windfall profits to US oil and gas companies.
[President Biden visiting Lockheed Martin's plant]
Thus, the US has welcomed and supported Israel's attack against Palestine. Israel is a US/UK's proxy installed to destabilize the Middle East.
Also, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu needed a conflict because his judicial reform had been so unpopular in Israel that he wanted to divert Israeli people's attention to something else.
What was weird about Hamas' surprise missile attack against Israel on October 7th 2023 was that Israel's Mossad hadn't noticed about it in advance and that Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system wasn't operated against incoming missiles at all. There is a possibility that the incident was Israel's false flag operation.
[Immediately after the war had begun, US President Joe Biden met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to find out Netanyahu's intention and a war plan, in Tel Aviv, Israel on October 18th 2023]
Using as a pretext Hamas' surprise missile attack that killed at least 250 people and wounded 1,500, Israel launched an all-out attack against Gaza, killing Gaza citizens indiscriminately.
As of January 7th 2024, Gaza’s ministry of health reports that at least 22,835 Palestinians had been killed, with another 58,416 reportedly injured. It is estimated 70% are women and children. About 7,000 more are missing under rubble and most are likely dead. [9]
By definition, what Israel is doing is genocide, exceeding far beyond self-defense. It is a war crime, blatantly violating international laws. It is a crime against humanity.
Accordingly, South Africa, a member of BRICS, indicted Israel to the International Court of Justice, insisting that Israel is committing genocide. [10]
Meanwhile, the US, instead of restraining Israel, acquiesces and allows Israel to continue the genocide, supporting Israel and supplying weapons and ammunitions.
[The US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution draft for a ceasefire in Gaza]
The US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution draft calling for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza, which means the US is and will be supporting Israel's genocide in Gaza. [11]
3. Iran's just support to Palestine people
Iran has been expressing its support for Palestine since the war began. Iran condemned Israel, insisting Arab Islamic countries to impose sanctions against Israel.
For the purpose of hampering Israel's war efforts, the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen has started missile and drone attacks against Israel-related ships in the Red Sea. As a result, the Red Sea has become impassable for commercial shipping. Israel can not import goods through the Red Sea.
[Strategic maritime choke points in Europe, Africa and the Middle East]
Furthermore, Iran is advocating shutting off the Strait of Gibraltar, thereby preventing Israel from importing goods through the Mediterranean, completing a blockade against Israel. [12]
[US air and naval bases in the Middle East]
Also, since October 2023, Iran-backed militias carried out more than one hundred attacks on US military bases and facilities in Syria and Iraq. Iran knows better than anyone else that it is the US that masterminds the destabilization of the Middle East. [13]
4. The US and Israel's attacks against Iran and Iran-related groups
The US and Israel retaliated against Iran by attacking Iran-related groups and forces.
On December 25th 2023, Israel killed Iran's top commander in Syria, Seyed Razi Mousavi, by an airstrike in a Damascus neighborhood . Iran has pledged to retaliate against Israel. [14]
[Iranian mourners hold up a photo of Seyed Razi Mousavi who was an Iran's top commander in Syria]
On January 3rd, two explosions killed 103 people and wounded scores at a ceremony held in Iran to commemorate Revolutionary Guards general Qassem Soleimani who was killed by a US drone in 2020. ISIS, which is supposed to have been fostered by the US, claimed the responsibility. [15]
[The commemoration ceremony on the 4th anniversary of General Qassem Soleimani's martyrdom was held at the Martyrs Cemetery in Kerman, Iran]
[The scene of explosions during a ceremony held to mark the martyrdom anniversary of former IRGC General Qassem Soleimani in Kerman, Iran]
On January 4th, the US military launched a retaliatory strike in Baghdad that killed a militia leader and a former commander it blames for recent attacks on U.S. personnel. [16]
[Mushtaq Talib al-Saeedi was a former commander of an Iranian proxy group in Iraq]
The Pentagon said the individuals targeted were Mushtaq Jawad Kazim al Jawari (a leader) and Mushtaq Talib al-Saeedi (a former commander) of an Iranian proxy group responsible for attacks against U.S. personnel.
Obviously, the US and Israel are trying to draw Iran into a war step by step. If Iran is drawn into a war, the conflict will become WW3, stopping oil export from the Middle East.
Finally, on January 12th, the US and UK military attacked the Houthis in Yemen. More than a dozen Houthi targets were attacked by missiles fired from air, surface warship and submarine platforms. [17]
[F/A-18s launched from a US aircraft carrier]
[A missile launched from a US warship]
[The US and UK struck 60 targets in 16 locations of the Houthis in Yemen]
And, on the next day January 13th, the US made another strike against the Houthis in Yemen.
The Houthis vowed strong retaliation.
The US and UK's attack against the Houthis will surely lead to further escalation and expansion of the conflict.
If the Houthis attacks US warships, the US may retaliate against Iran itself, attacking Iran homeland.
5. The US's fundamental strategy to destroy China
China might have been regarding Israel's genocide in Gaza only as a tragedy of Palestine people. However, it is actually a prelude of the US's global war against China.
The US has come to a conclusion that it would not be able to victorious against China in a Taiwan war because China has advantage of fighting from home station while the US has disadvantage of logistics problem. [18]
Therefore, presumably, the US has decided to wage a broader regional or even global fight against China over control of the sea lines of communication because the US could possibly defeat China in a simultaneous multi-concurrent global warfare, which, in other words, is WW3.
With this regard, allow me to make a relatively lengthy quote from the Brookings Institution's article "America can’t afford to ignore the logistics triad". [19]
//quote//
In the modern American defense debate, with its emphasis on great power competition and, most specifically, the deterrence of China, a number of military capabilities are getting lots of attention. They include hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence, precision munitions, long-range stealth bombers, and submarines. Less sexy, but just as crucial are military logistics — the systems that deploy forces around the world and supply them with the water, fuel, ammunition, food, spare parts, medical care, and other essentials needed to make them effective in combat. If the United States fights China in the Western Pacific, the Chinese can fight from “home station.” That advantage drastically reduces their logistics challenges relative to those faced by the United States (though if the United States can transform the conflict into a broader regional fight over control of the sea lines of communication, the challenges faced by the two sides may be comparable).
//unquote//
This is exactly what the US is trying to do against China.
The US and Israel are now trying to provoke and draw Iran into actual military combat. Israel keeps committing brutal inhuman genocide in Gaza, and the US doesn't persuade Israel to stop the genocide. The US started attack against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.
The US will escalate the conflict by finally attacking the Iranian mainland here and there, and Iran will counter by attacking US military bases in the Middle East such as Bahrain, exchanging missiles each other.
Then, the Strait of Hormuz will be shut down. Half of China’s oil imports, and a little more than a third of all the oil burned in China, comes from the Persian Gulf. Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz will stop China's oil import from the Middle East, which will be an extremely major economic blow to China. [20]
The stoppage of oil import from the Middle East will cause serious economic and social disruption in China, which the US will attempt to make the most of in order to destabilize and ultimately topple the Chinese Communist government, mobilizing saboteurs and agents implanted in China and driving Chinese people toward antigovernmental protests.
In Taiwan's presidential election of January 13th 2024, a pro-independence DPP candidate Lai Ching-te won. The US can let him declare Taiwan's de facto or even formal independence to provoke China into a military conflict exactly when China has a trouble of importing oil from the Middle East. Japan and the Philippines will join the US's intervention in the Taiwan crisis. In early February, Japan designated China as "a hypothetical enemy" in US-Japan military exercise. [21]
The wars and conflicts will spread from Ukraine to the Middle East and Asia. It will be WW3.
This is a fundamental US strategy. It doesn't change whether Biden remains to be the US President or Trump snatches the US presidency from Biden. Whoever becomes the US President, the US's fundamental strategy won't change.
6. China's diplomatic counter-actions against the US
Under these circumstances, China should immediately revive and strengthen the tide of the peace and stability in the Middle East.
China has been calling for a ceasefire of the Israel and Palestine conflict since the war began.
China has expressed her concern on escalation of tension in the Red Sea and urged all parties to exercise restraint to prevent the conflict from expanding.
To prevent further escalation of the conflict, China can hold an international conference on the Gaza and Red Sea conflict, inviting BRICS, SCO and the Global South.
[The 15th BRICS Summit held in South Africa in August 2023]
At the conference, China can propose an enlargement of buffer zone between Israel and Palestine where BRICS, SCO and the Global South will send troops as UN peace-keeping forces.
Israel already set up 1 kilometer-width buffer zone between Israel and Palestine. However, it was set up on the side of Palestine territoriy, diminishing Palestine area. It didn't work to prevent a conflict as Israel itself trespassed the buffer zone. [22]
[Existing Israel/Palestine buffer zone enforced by Israel is as narrow as 1 kilometer and does not work]
China can propose significant enlargement of the buffer zone in the direction of Israel territory too so that sufficient space will be created. China can also propose that BRICS, SCO and the Global South will send troops as UN peace-keeping forces to stay in the enlarged buffer zone and ensure the peace and stability.
If the US and Israel don't accept China's proposal, continuing their attempt to escalate the conflict, China, BRICS, SCO and the Global South, especially Arab Islamic countries should impose utmost sanctions against Israel.
[China and Arab-Islamic countries foreign ministers' talk held in Beijing, China in November 2023]
Also, Arab Islamic countries should boycott and reduce importing US weapons, which will be a significant blow to the US military industrial complex.
At the same time, China needs to minimize impact of the stoppage of oil and gas export from the Middle East.
China needs to make agreements with Russia and oil and gas producing countries in Africa and Asia such as Algeria, Angola and Egypt so that, if oil and gas export from the Middle East is stopped, China would be able to procure increased amount of oil and gas from these countries at predetermined prices.
For example, Russia would divert oil and gas that were bound for Japan and export them to China instead.
China, BRICS, SCO and the Global South should continue to work together through the UN to supervise and regulate US/UK's proxies and quasi-proxies such as Israel, Ukraine and Japan.
7. Iran-backed militias and Hezbollah would shift their targets to US and Israel's supply lines
Iran should not be provoked by the US and Israel. If Iran-backed militias keep attacking US military bases, the US would stage a false-flag operation to gain an excuse to attack Iran's mainland.
Under these circumstances, it is likely that Iran would suggest Iran-backed militias in Iraq to stop attacking US military bases and shift targets to supply lines for US military assets in the Middle East.
A war is all about logistics. The best way to neutralize military forces is to cut off their supply lines. Supply lines are much easier to attack and very difficult to defend. It is likely that Iran-backed militias would shift their targets to supply lines for US military assets in the Middle East, which would gradually and effectively undermine and neutralize US military presence in the Middle East. [23][24]
[Supply lines are vulnerable and very difficult to defend]
[Massive amount of road-side bombs and drones would be used to cripple US supply lines]
Russia may provide precious intelligence to Iran as to how the US is supplying its military forces in the Middle East and which parts of supply lines are most vulnerable and effective to attack.
If Iran-backed militias shift their attack to US supply lines, it would be difficult for the US to escalate the tension in the Middle East. As long as US military bases are attacked, the US can retaliate by conspicuous air-bombardment and missile attack to escalate the tension. But, if supply lines are attacked, the US will find it difficult to make a showy retaliation. Attack against supply lines are less obvious but most effective to neutralize US military forces.
Also, Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon may deploy anti-ship missiles and drones and start attacking Israeli shipping in the Mediterranean.
[Haifa is Israel's major seaport located on the Mediterranean coastline]
Hezbollah may deploy anti-air missiles too and start attacking transport planes by which military supplies are transported into Israel.
Israel's supply lines via the Red Sea, the Mediterranean and air might be choked. Israel's war-fighting capabilities would be hampered significantly.
8. Military deterrence against the US and Israel with sophisticated weapons
The US and Israel understand only power and money. So, ultimately, the most effective way to deter them is to let them taste the power of superior weapons.
When the US and UK attacked the Houthis in Yemen, Russia strongly condemned them. [25]
So, if, despite China's diplomatic counter-actions, the US and Israel do not stop their attempt to escalate the conflict by attacking the Houthis and provoking Iran into a war, Russia can lease its sophisticated weapons to Iran. Then, Iran can transfer them to the Houthis.
For example, Russia can lease its S-400 anti-air and anti-missile defense systems to Iran. Then, Iran can transfer them to the Houthis. Russian volunteer technicians will operate the systems. S-400 will shoot down F/A-18s launched from US aircraft carriers. F/A-18s are not stealth fighters. So, they are easy preys for S-400. Also, S-400 will shoot down Tomahawk missiles launched from US submarines. Tomahawk missiles fly at subsonic speed. So, they are easy preys for S-400.
[Russia's S-400 anti-air and anti-missile defense systems]
[F/A-18 launched from a US aircraft carrier]
[A US attack submarine launching Tomahawk missiles while submerging]
Russia can lease its Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missiles to Iran. Then, Iran transfer them to the Houthis. Russian volunteer technicians will operate the systems. Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missiles will hit and sink US aircraft carriers. The US has no defense against Tsircon.
[Russia's Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missile]
[USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69)]
Russia can lease its RPK-6 missile torpedoes to Iran. Then, Iran can transfer them to the Houthis. Russian volunteer technicians will operate the systems. The Red Sea is narrow. RPK-6 missile torpedoes will detect and kill US attack submarines that launch Tomahawk missiles against the Houthis.
[Missile torpedoes detect and kill submarines]
Losing its F/A-18s, aircraft carriers and attack submarines one after another, the US will finally accept ceasefire in Gaza as well as the two state solution and enlarged buffer zone between Israel and Palestine guarded by UN peace-keeping forces.
If even the Houthis, which is an organization based upon the local tribe, can destroy the US’s F/A-18s, aircraft carriers and attack submarines, it means any country can destroy the US’s warplanes and warships. The US’s military hegemony, which the US believes it has, will be broken apart.
The Western countries’ centuries of imperialistic aggression and suppression will be finished. Relations between countries will become fair and equal based upon win-win relations and mutual respect.
The tide of the peace and stability will once again prevail and remain throughout the Middle East under the leadership and auspices of China, BRICS, SCO and the Global South.
Thank you.
References:
(1) "US and UK strike Houthi targets in Yemen one day after US strikes in Iraq and Syria", February 4th 2024, CNN
(2) "US strikes Iranian militants in Iraq and Syria in response to deadly drone attack in Jordan", February 2nd 2024, POLITICO
(3) "Blinken meets Saudi crown prince amid heightened Mideast tensions", February 6th 2024, Reuters
(4) Statements by PM Netanyahu and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, December 18th 2023, Prime Minister's Office of Israel
(5) "Biden losing patience with Israel's Netanyahu over Gaza: Report", January 14th 2024, Anadolu Agency
(6) "US plans 'more action' after striking militants in response to killing of 3 American troops", February 5th 2024, ABC News
(7) "Iran, Saudi Arabia agree to resume ties, with China’s help", March 11th 2023, AP
(8) "Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Ethiopia formally join BRICS", January 1st 2024, Daily News Egypt
(9) "The numbers that reveal the extent of the destruction in Gaza", January 8th 2024, The Guardian
(10) "South Africa tells top UN court Israel is committing genocide in Gaza as landmark case begins", January 12th 2024, AP
(11) "US blocks UN Security Council demand for humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza", December 9th 2023, Reuters
(12) "Iran threatens Mediterranean closure over Gaza, without saying how", December 19th 2023, Reuters
(13) "Attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria (2023–present)", Wikipedia
(14) "IRGC threatens ‘direct action’ against Israel over senior commander’s slaying", December 19th 2023, Reuters
(15) "Now the truth emerges: how the US fuelled the rise of Isis in Syria and Iraq", June 3rd 2015, The Guardian
(16) "US claims deadly strike against pro-Iran militia in Baghdad", January 4th 2024, Rudaw
(17) "Ike’s Carrier Air Wing 3, USS Gravely, USS Philippine Sea and USS Mason Struck Houthi Targets", January 12th 2024, USNI News
(18) The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan, January 2023, CSIS
(19) "America can’t afford to ignore the logistics triad", July 2023, Brookings Institution
(20) "China’s Economic Stake in the Middle East: Its Thirst for Oil", October 11th 2023, The New York Times
(21) 「『中国』明示し日米初演習 台湾有事の作戦計画反映へ」、２０２４年２月４日、共同通信
(22) " 'Buffer zone' reducing Palestinian agricultural land in Gaza", June 16th 2008, The New Humanitarian
(23) "Supply lines vital to US campaign", March 28th 2003, BBC
(24) "This Is What A Homemade Bomb Can Do To The Army's Toughest Truck", May 10th 2012, Business Insider
(25) "Russia condemns US and UK for 'irresponsible' strikes on Yemen", January 12th 2024, Reuters
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.