【Summary】
Israel is committing a brutal genocide and aggression in Gaza. As Israel is a US/UK's proxy installed in the Middle East to destabilize the region, Israel is likely to repeat the same war crimes and military aggression over and over again.
Thus, in order to ensure the two state solution and peace and stability in the region, China can propose enlargement of buffer zone between Israel and Palestine where BRICS, SCO and the global south will send troops as UN peace-keeping forces.
If the US and Israel do not stop their attempt to escalate the conflict by attacking the Houthis and provoking Iran, Russia can lease its sophisticated weapons to Iran. Then, Iran can transfer them to the Houthis.
China, BRICS, SCO and the global south should continue to work together through the UN to supervise and regulate US/UK's proxies and quasi-proxies such as Israel, Ukraine and Japan.
【Background】
China has a tradition of "people first". The US has a tradition of "rich people first".
Thus China is a supporting equal partner. The US is an exploiting brutal burglar.
China is a peace maker. The US is a warmonger.
The world should unite with China.
【Article】
1. China is a peace maker. The US is a warmonger
China expands peace in the Middle East while the US wants to destabilize the Middle East.
China brokered reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023. China vastly advanced the peace and stability in the Middle East. [1]
[Saudi national security adviser Musaad bin Mohammed al-Aiban (Left), Wang Yi, China's most senior diplomat and Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Beijing, March 2023]
In January 2024, Saudi Arabia and Iran, along with Egypt, UAE, Ethiopia, joined BRICS. BRICS expanded, welcoming countries from the Middle East and Africa. [2]
As relations between Arab countries and Iran was getting improved steadily, the tide of peace and stability was expanding in the Middle East.
The US doesn't like it. The US wants to destabilize the Middle East so that Arab countries would depend upon the US and that Iran would be isolated. "Divide and rule" is the maxim the US adheres to. Wars and conflicts increase demands for US weapons, which the US military industrial complex desires. Also, wars and conflicts make the oil and gas prices go up, which provides windfall profits to US oil and gas companies.
[President Biden visiting Lockheed Martin's plant]
Thus, the US has welcomed and supported Israel's attack against Palestine. Israel is a US/UK's proxy installed to destabilize the Middle East.
Also, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu needed a conflict because his judicial reform had been so unpopular in Israel that he wanted to divert Israeli people's attention to something else.
What was weird about Hamas' surprise missile attack against Israel on October 7th 2023 was that Israel's Mossad hadn't noticed about it in advance and that Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system wasn't operated against incoming missiles at all. There is a possibility that the incident was Israel's false flag operation.
[Immediately after the war had begun, US President Joe Biden met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, confirming the US's support for Israel, in Tel Aviv, Israel on October 18th 2023]
Using as a pretext Hamas' surprise missile attack that killed at least 250 people and wounded 1,500, Israel launched an all-out attack against Gaza, killing Gaza citizens indiscriminately.
As of January 7th 2024, Gaza’s ministry of health reports that at least 22,835 Palestinians had been killed, with another 58,416 reportedly injured. It is estimated 70% are women and children. About 7,000 more are missing under rubble and most are likely dead. [3]
By definition, what Israel is doing is genocide, exceeding far beyond self-defense. It is a war crime, blatantly violating international laws. It is a crime against humanity.
Accordingly, South Africa, a member of BRICS, indicted Israel to the International Court of Justice, insisting that Israel is committing genocide. [4]
Meanwhile, the US, Instead of restraining Israel, acquiesces and allows Israel to continue the genocide, supporting Israel and supplying weapons and ammunitions.
[The US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution draft for a ceasefire in Gaza]
The US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution draft calling for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza, which means the US is and will be supporting Israel's genocide in Gaza. [5]
2. Iran's just support to Palestine people
Iran has been expressing its support for Palestine since the war began. Iran condemned Israel, insisting Arab Islamic countries to impose sanctions against Israel.
For the purpose of hampering Israel's war efforts, the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen has started missile and drone attacks against Israel-related ships in the Red Sea. As a result, the Red Sea has become impassable for commercial shipping. Israel can not import goods through the Red Sea.
[Strategic maritime choke points in Europe, Africa and the Middle East]
Furthermore, Iran is advocating shutting off the Strait of Gibraltar, thereby preventing Israel from importing goods through the Mediterranean, completing a blockade against Israel. [6]
[US air and naval bases in the Middle East]
Also, since October 2023, Iran-backed militias carried out more than one hundred attacks on US military bases and facilities in Syria and Iraq. Iran knows better than anyone else that it is the US that masterminds the destabilization of the Middle East. [7]
3. The US and Israel's attacks against Iran and Iran-related groups
The US and Israel retaliated against Iran by attacking Iran-related groups and forces.
On December 25th 2023, Israel killed Iran's top commander in Syria, Seyed Razi Mousavi, by an airstrike in a Damascus neighborhood . Iran has pledged to retaliate against Israel. [8]
[Iranian mourners hold up a photo of Seyed Razi Mousavi who was an Iran's top commander in Syria]
On January 3rd, two explosions killed 103 people and wounded scores at a ceremony held in Iran to commemorate Revolutionary Guards general Qassem Soleimani who was killed by a US drone in 2020. ISIS, which is supposed to have been fostered by the US, claimed the responsibility. [9]
[The commemoration ceremony on the 4th anniversary of General Qassem Soleimani's martyrdom was held at the Martyrs Cemetery in Kerman, Iran]
[The scene of explosions during a ceremony held to mark the martyrdom anniversary of former IRGC General Qassem Soleimani in Kerman, Iran]
On January 4th, the US military launched a retaliatory strike in Baghdad that killed a militia leader and a former commander it blames for recent attacks on U.S. personnel. [10]
[Mushtaq Talib al-Saeedi was a former commander of an Iranian proxy group in Iraq]
The Pentagon said the individuals targeted were Mushtaq Jawad Kazim al Jawari (a leader) and Mushtaq Talib al-Saeedi (a former commander) of an Iranian proxy group responsible for attacks against U.S. personnel.
Obviously, the US and Israel are trying to draw Iran into a war step by step. If Iran is drawn into a war, the conflict will become WW3, stopping oil export from the Middle East.
Finally, on January 12th, the US and UK military attacked the Houthis in Yemen. More than a dozen Houthi targets were attacked by missiles fired from air, surface warship and submarine platforms. [11]
[F/A-18s launched from a US aircraft carrier]
[A missile launched from a US warship]
[The US and UK struck 60 targets in 16 locations of the Houthis in Yemen]
And, on the next day January 13th, the US made another strike against the Houthis in Yemen.
The Houthis vowed strong retaliation.
The US and UK's attack against the Houthis will surely lead to further escalation and expansion of the conflict.
If the Houthis attacks US warships, the US may retaliate against Iran itself, attacking Iran homeland.
4. The US's fundamental strategy to destroy China
China might have been regarding Israel's genocide in Gaza only as a tragedy of Palestine people. However, it is actually a prelude of the US's global war against China.
The US has come to a conclusion that it would not be able to victorious against China in a Taiwan war because China has advantage of fighting from home station while the US has disadvantage of logistics problem. [12]
Therefore, presumably, the US has decided to wage a broader regional or even global fight against China over control of the sea lines of communication because the US could possibly defeat China in a simultaneous multi-concurrent global warfare, which, in other words, is WW3.
With this regard, allow me to make a relatively lengthy quote from the Brookings Institution's article "America can’t afford to ignore the logistics triad". [13]
//quote//
In the modern American defense debate, with its emphasis on great power competition and, most specifically, the deterrence of China, a number of military capabilities are getting lots of attention. They include hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence, precision munitions, long-range stealth bombers, and submarines. Less sexy, but just as crucial are military logistics — the systems that deploy forces around the world and supply them with the water, fuel, ammunition, food, spare parts, medical care, and other essentials needed to make them effective in combat. If the United States fights China in the Western Pacific, the Chinese can fight from “home station.” That advantage drastically reduces their logistics challenges relative to those faced by the United States (though if the United States can transform the conflict into a broader regional fight over control of the sea lines of communication, the challenges faced by the two sides may be comparable).
//unquote//
This is exactly what the US is trying to do against China.
The US and Israel are now trying to provoke and draw Iran into actual military combat. Israel keeps committing brutal inhuman genocide in Gaza, and the US doesn't persuade Israel to stop the genocide. The US started attack against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.
The US will escalate the conflict by finally attacking the Iranian mainland here and there, and Iran will counter by attacking US military bases in the Middle East such as Bahrain, exchanging missiles each other.
Then, the Strait of Hormuz will be shut down. Half of China’s oil imports, and a little more than a third of all the oil burned in China, comes from the Persian Gulf. Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz will stop China's oil import from the Middle East, which will be an extremely major economic blow to China. [14]
The stoppage of oil import from the Middle East will cause serious economic and social disruption in China, which the US will attempt to make the most of in order to destabilize and ultimately topple the Chinese Communist government, mobilizing saboteurs and agents implanted in China and driving Chinese people toward antigovernmental protests.
In Taiwan's presidential election of January 13th 2024, a pro-independence DPP candidate Lai Ching-te won. The US can let him declare Taiwan's de facto or even formal independence to provoke China into a military conflict exactly when China has a trouble of importing oil from the Middle East. Japan and the Philippines will join the US's intervention in the Taiwan crisis.
The wars and conflicts will spread from Ukraine to the Middle East and Asia. It will be WW3.
This is a fundamental US strategy. It doesn't change whether Biden remains to be the US President or Trump snatches the US presidency from Biden. Whoever becomes the US President, the US's fundamental strategy won't change.
5. China's diplomatic counter-actions against the US
Under these circumstances, China should immediately revive and strengthen the tide of the peace and stability in the Middle East.
China has been calling for a ceasefire of the Israel and Palestine conflict since the war began.
China has expressed her concern on escalation of tension in the Red Sea and urged all parties to exercise restraint to prevent the conflict from expanding.
To prevent further escalation of the conflict, China can hold an international conference on the Gaza and Red Sea conflict, inviting BRICS, SCO and the Global South.
[The 15th BRICS Summit held in South Africa in August 2023]
At the conference, China can propose an enlargement of buffer zone between Israel and Palestine where BRICS, SCO and the Global South will send troops as UN peace-keeping forces.
Israel already set up 1 kilometer-width buffer zone between Israel and Palestine. However, it was set up on the side of Palestine territoriy, diminishing Palestine area. It didn't work to prevent a conflict as Israel itself trespassed the buffer zone. [15]
[Existing Israel/Palestine buffer zone enforced by Israel is as narrow as 1 kilometer and does not work]
China can propose significant enlargement of the buffer zone in the direction of Israel territory too so that sufficient space will be created. China can also propose that BRICS, SCO and the Global South will send troops as UN peace-keeping forces to stay in the enlarged buffer zone and ensure the peace and stability.
If the US and Israel don't accept China's proposal, continuing their attempt to escalate the conflict, China, BRICS, SCO and the Global South, especially Arab Islamic countries should impose utmost sanctions against Israel.
[China and Arab-Islamic countries foreign ministers' talk held in Beijing, China in November 2023]
Also, Arab Islamic countries should boycott and reduce importing US weapons, which will be a significant blow to the US military industrial complex.
At the same time, China needs to minimize impact of the stoppage of oil and gas export from the Middle East.
China needs to make agreements with Russia and oil and gas producing countries in Africa and Asia such as Algeria, Angola and Egypt so that, if oil and gas export from the Middle East is stopped, China would be able to procure increased amount of oil and gas from these countries at predetermined prices.
For example, Russia would divert oil and gas that were bound for Japan and export them to China instead.
China, BRICS, SCO and the Global South should continue to work together through the UN to supervise and regulate US/UK's proxies and quasi-proxies such as Israel, Ukraine and Japan.
6. Military deterrence against the US and Israel
The US and Israel understand only power and money. So, ultimately, the most effective way to deter them is to let them taste the power of superior weapons.
When the US and UK attacked the Houthis in Yemen, Russia strongly condemned them. [16]
So, if, despite China's diplomatic counter-actions, the US and Israel do not stop their attempt to escalate the conflict by attacking the Houthis and provoking Iran into a war, Russia can lease its sophisticated weapons to Iran. Then, Iran can transfer them to the Houthis.
For example, Russia can lease its S-400 anti-air and anti-missile defense systems to Iran. Then, Iran can transfer them to the Houthis. Russian volunteer technicians will operate the systems. S-400 will shoot down F/A-18s launched from US aircraft carriers. F/A-18s are not stealth fighters. So, they are easy preys for S-400. Also, S-400 will shoot down Tomahawk missiles launched from US submarines. Tomahawk missiles fly at subsonic speed. So, they are easy preys for S-400.
[Russia's S-400 anti-air and anti-missile defense systems]
[F/A-18 launched from a US aircraft carrier]
[A US attack submarine launching Tomahawk missiles while submerging]
Russia can lease its Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missiles to Iran. Then, Iran transfer them to the Houthis. Russian volunteer technicians will operate the systems. Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missiles will hit and sink US aircraft carriers. The US has no defense against Tsircon.
[Russia's Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missile]
[USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69)]
Russia can lease its RPK-6 missile torpedoes to Iran. Then, Iran can transfer them to the Houthis. Russian volunteer technicians will operate the systems. The Red Sea is narrow. RPK-6 missile torpedoes will detect and kill US attack submarines that launch Tomahawk missiles against the Houthis.
[Missile torpedoes detect and kill submarines]
Losing its F/A-18s, aircraft carriers and attack submarines one after another, the US will finally accept ceasefire in Gaza as well as the two state solution and enlarged buffer zone between Israel and Palestine guarded by UN peace-keeping forces.
If even the Houthis, which is an organization based upon the local tribe, can destroy the US’s F/A-18s, aircraft carriers and attack submarines, it means any country can destroy the US’s warplanes and warships. The US’s military hegemony, which the US believes it has, will be broken apart.
The Western countries’ centuries of imperialistic aggression and suppression will be finished. Relations between countries will become fair and equal based upon win-win relations and mutual respect.
The tide of the peace and stability will once again prevail and remain throughout the Middle East under the leadership and auspices of China, BRICS, SCO and the Global South.
Thank you.
References:
(1) "Iran, Saudi Arabia agree to resume ties, with China’s help", March 11th 2023, AP
(2) "Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Ethiopia formally join BRICS", January 1st 2024, Daily News Egypt
(3) "The numbers that reveal the extent of the destruction in Gaza", January 8th 2024, The Guardian
(4) "South Africa tells top UN court Israel is committing genocide in Gaza as landmark case begins", January 12th 2024, AP
(5) "US blocks UN Security Council demand for humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza", December 9th 2023, Reuters
(6) "Iran threatens Mediterranean closure over Gaza, without saying how", December 19th 2023, Reuters
(7) "Attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria (2023–present)", Wikipedia
(8) "IRGC threatens ‘direct action’ against Israel over senior commander’s slaying", December 19th 2023, Reuters
(9) "Now the truth emerges: how the US fuelled the rise of Isis in Syria and Iraq", June 3rd 2015, The Guardian
(10) "US claims deadly strike against pro-Iran militia in Baghdad", January 4th 2024, Rudaw
(11) "Ike’s Carrier Air Wing 3, USS Gravely, USS Philippine Sea and USS Mason Struck Houthi Targets", January 12th 2024, USNI News
(12) The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan, January 2023, CSIS
(13) "America can’t afford to ignore the logistics triad", July 2023, Brookings Institution
(14) "China’s Economic Stake in the Middle East: Its Thirst for Oil", October 11th 2023, The New York Times
(15) " 'Buffer zone' reducing Palestinian agricultural land in Gaza", June 16th 2008, The New Humanitarian
(16) "Russia condemns US and UK for 'irresponsible' strikes on Yemen", January 12th 2024, Reuters
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
Israel is committing a brutal genocide and aggression in Gaza. As Israel is a US/UK's proxy installed in the Middle East to destabilize the region, Israel is likely to repeat the same war crimes and military aggression over and over again.
Thus, in order to ensure the two state solution and peace and stability in the region, China can propose enlargement of buffer zone between Israel and Palestine where BRICS, SCO and the global south will send troops as UN peace-keeping forces.
If the US and Israel do not stop their attempt to escalate the conflict by attacking the Houthis and provoking Iran, Russia can lease its sophisticated weapons to Iran. Then, Iran can transfer them to the Houthis.
China, BRICS, SCO and the global south should continue to work together through the UN to supervise and regulate US/UK's proxies and quasi-proxies such as Israel, Ukraine and Japan.
【Background】
China has a tradition of "people first". The US has a tradition of "rich people first".
Thus China is a supporting equal partner. The US is an exploiting brutal burglar.
China is a peace maker. The US is a warmonger.
The world should unite with China.
【Article】
1. China is a peace maker. The US is a warmonger
China expands peace in the Middle East while the US wants to destabilize the Middle East.
China brokered reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023. China vastly advanced the peace and stability in the Middle East. [1]
[Saudi national security adviser Musaad bin Mohammed al-Aiban (Left), Wang Yi, China's most senior diplomat and Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Beijing, March 2023]
In January 2024, Saudi Arabia and Iran, along with Egypt, UAE, Ethiopia, joined BRICS. BRICS expanded, welcoming countries from the Middle East and Africa. [2]
As relations between Arab countries and Iran was getting improved steadily, the tide of peace and stability was expanding in the Middle East.
The US doesn't like it. The US wants to destabilize the Middle East so that Arab countries would depend upon the US and that Iran would be isolated. "Divide and rule" is the maxim the US adheres to. Wars and conflicts increase demands for US weapons, which the US military industrial complex desires. Also, wars and conflicts make the oil and gas prices go up, which provides windfall profits to US oil and gas companies.
[President Biden visiting Lockheed Martin's plant]
Thus, the US has welcomed and supported Israel's attack against Palestine. Israel is a US/UK's proxy installed to destabilize the Middle East.
Also, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu needed a conflict because his judicial reform had been so unpopular in Israel that he wanted to divert Israeli people's attention to something else.
What was weird about Hamas' surprise missile attack against Israel on October 7th 2023 was that Israel's Mossad hadn't noticed about it in advance and that Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system wasn't operated against incoming missiles at all. There is a possibility that the incident was Israel's false flag operation.
[Immediately after the war had begun, US President Joe Biden met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, confirming the US's support for Israel, in Tel Aviv, Israel on October 18th 2023]
Using as a pretext Hamas' surprise missile attack that killed at least 250 people and wounded 1,500, Israel launched an all-out attack against Gaza, killing Gaza citizens indiscriminately.
As of January 7th 2024, Gaza’s ministry of health reports that at least 22,835 Palestinians had been killed, with another 58,416 reportedly injured. It is estimated 70% are women and children. About 7,000 more are missing under rubble and most are likely dead. [3]
By definition, what Israel is doing is genocide, exceeding far beyond self-defense. It is a war crime, blatantly violating international laws. It is a crime against humanity.
Accordingly, South Africa, a member of BRICS, indicted Israel to the International Court of Justice, insisting that Israel is committing genocide. [4]
Meanwhile, the US, Instead of restraining Israel, acquiesces and allows Israel to continue the genocide, supporting Israel and supplying weapons and ammunitions.
[The US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution draft for a ceasefire in Gaza]
The US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution draft calling for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza, which means the US is and will be supporting Israel's genocide in Gaza. [5]
2. Iran's just support to Palestine people
Iran has been expressing its support for Palestine since the war began. Iran condemned Israel, insisting Arab Islamic countries to impose sanctions against Israel.
For the purpose of hampering Israel's war efforts, the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen has started missile and drone attacks against Israel-related ships in the Red Sea. As a result, the Red Sea has become impassable for commercial shipping. Israel can not import goods through the Red Sea.
[Strategic maritime choke points in Europe, Africa and the Middle East]
Furthermore, Iran is advocating shutting off the Strait of Gibraltar, thereby preventing Israel from importing goods through the Mediterranean, completing a blockade against Israel. [6]
[US air and naval bases in the Middle East]
Also, since October 2023, Iran-backed militias carried out more than one hundred attacks on US military bases and facilities in Syria and Iraq. Iran knows better than anyone else that it is the US that masterminds the destabilization of the Middle East. [7]
3. The US and Israel's attacks against Iran and Iran-related groups
The US and Israel retaliated against Iran by attacking Iran-related groups and forces.
On December 25th 2023, Israel killed Iran's top commander in Syria, Seyed Razi Mousavi, by an airstrike in a Damascus neighborhood . Iran has pledged to retaliate against Israel. [8]
[Iranian mourners hold up a photo of Seyed Razi Mousavi who was an Iran's top commander in Syria]
On January 3rd, two explosions killed 103 people and wounded scores at a ceremony held in Iran to commemorate Revolutionary Guards general Qassem Soleimani who was killed by a US drone in 2020. ISIS, which is supposed to have been fostered by the US, claimed the responsibility. [9]
[The commemoration ceremony on the 4th anniversary of General Qassem Soleimani's martyrdom was held at the Martyrs Cemetery in Kerman, Iran]
[The scene of explosions during a ceremony held to mark the martyrdom anniversary of former IRGC General Qassem Soleimani in Kerman, Iran]
On January 4th, the US military launched a retaliatory strike in Baghdad that killed a militia leader and a former commander it blames for recent attacks on U.S. personnel. [10]
[Mushtaq Talib al-Saeedi was a former commander of an Iranian proxy group in Iraq]
The Pentagon said the individuals targeted were Mushtaq Jawad Kazim al Jawari (a leader) and Mushtaq Talib al-Saeedi (a former commander) of an Iranian proxy group responsible for attacks against U.S. personnel.
Obviously, the US and Israel are trying to draw Iran into a war step by step. If Iran is drawn into a war, the conflict will become WW3, stopping oil export from the Middle East.
Finally, on January 12th, the US and UK military attacked the Houthis in Yemen. More than a dozen Houthi targets were attacked by missiles fired from air, surface warship and submarine platforms. [11]
[F/A-18s launched from a US aircraft carrier]
[A missile launched from a US warship]
[The US and UK struck 60 targets in 16 locations of the Houthis in Yemen]
And, on the next day January 13th, the US made another strike against the Houthis in Yemen.
The Houthis vowed strong retaliation.
The US and UK's attack against the Houthis will surely lead to further escalation and expansion of the conflict.
If the Houthis attacks US warships, the US may retaliate against Iran itself, attacking Iran homeland.
4. The US's fundamental strategy to destroy China
China might have been regarding Israel's genocide in Gaza only as a tragedy of Palestine people. However, it is actually a prelude of the US's global war against China.
The US has come to a conclusion that it would not be able to victorious against China in a Taiwan war because China has advantage of fighting from home station while the US has disadvantage of logistics problem. [12]
Therefore, presumably, the US has decided to wage a broader regional or even global fight against China over control of the sea lines of communication because the US could possibly defeat China in a simultaneous multi-concurrent global warfare, which, in other words, is WW3.
With this regard, allow me to make a relatively lengthy quote from the Brookings Institution's article "America can’t afford to ignore the logistics triad". [13]
//quote//
In the modern American defense debate, with its emphasis on great power competition and, most specifically, the deterrence of China, a number of military capabilities are getting lots of attention. They include hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence, precision munitions, long-range stealth bombers, and submarines. Less sexy, but just as crucial are military logistics — the systems that deploy forces around the world and supply them with the water, fuel, ammunition, food, spare parts, medical care, and other essentials needed to make them effective in combat. If the United States fights China in the Western Pacific, the Chinese can fight from “home station.” That advantage drastically reduces their logistics challenges relative to those faced by the United States (though if the United States can transform the conflict into a broader regional fight over control of the sea lines of communication, the challenges faced by the two sides may be comparable).
//unquote//
This is exactly what the US is trying to do against China.
The US and Israel are now trying to provoke and draw Iran into actual military combat. Israel keeps committing brutal inhuman genocide in Gaza, and the US doesn't persuade Israel to stop the genocide. The US started attack against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.
The US will escalate the conflict by finally attacking the Iranian mainland here and there, and Iran will counter by attacking US military bases in the Middle East such as Bahrain, exchanging missiles each other.
Then, the Strait of Hormuz will be shut down. Half of China’s oil imports, and a little more than a third of all the oil burned in China, comes from the Persian Gulf. Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz will stop China's oil import from the Middle East, which will be an extremely major economic blow to China. [14]
The stoppage of oil import from the Middle East will cause serious economic and social disruption in China, which the US will attempt to make the most of in order to destabilize and ultimately topple the Chinese Communist government, mobilizing saboteurs and agents implanted in China and driving Chinese people toward antigovernmental protests.
In Taiwan's presidential election of January 13th 2024, a pro-independence DPP candidate Lai Ching-te won. The US can let him declare Taiwan's de facto or even formal independence to provoke China into a military conflict exactly when China has a trouble of importing oil from the Middle East. Japan and the Philippines will join the US's intervention in the Taiwan crisis.
The wars and conflicts will spread from Ukraine to the Middle East and Asia. It will be WW3.
This is a fundamental US strategy. It doesn't change whether Biden remains to be the US President or Trump snatches the US presidency from Biden. Whoever becomes the US President, the US's fundamental strategy won't change.
5. China's diplomatic counter-actions against the US
Under these circumstances, China should immediately revive and strengthen the tide of the peace and stability in the Middle East.
China has been calling for a ceasefire of the Israel and Palestine conflict since the war began.
China has expressed her concern on escalation of tension in the Red Sea and urged all parties to exercise restraint to prevent the conflict from expanding.
To prevent further escalation of the conflict, China can hold an international conference on the Gaza and Red Sea conflict, inviting BRICS, SCO and the Global South.
[The 15th BRICS Summit held in South Africa in August 2023]
At the conference, China can propose an enlargement of buffer zone between Israel and Palestine where BRICS, SCO and the Global South will send troops as UN peace-keeping forces.
Israel already set up 1 kilometer-width buffer zone between Israel and Palestine. However, it was set up on the side of Palestine territoriy, diminishing Palestine area. It didn't work to prevent a conflict as Israel itself trespassed the buffer zone. [15]
[Existing Israel/Palestine buffer zone enforced by Israel is as narrow as 1 kilometer and does not work]
China can propose significant enlargement of the buffer zone in the direction of Israel territory too so that sufficient space will be created. China can also propose that BRICS, SCO and the Global South will send troops as UN peace-keeping forces to stay in the enlarged buffer zone and ensure the peace and stability.
If the US and Israel don't accept China's proposal, continuing their attempt to escalate the conflict, China, BRICS, SCO and the Global South, especially Arab Islamic countries should impose utmost sanctions against Israel.
[China and Arab-Islamic countries foreign ministers' talk held in Beijing, China in November 2023]
Also, Arab Islamic countries should boycott and reduce importing US weapons, which will be a significant blow to the US military industrial complex.
At the same time, China needs to minimize impact of the stoppage of oil and gas export from the Middle East.
China needs to make agreements with Russia and oil and gas producing countries in Africa and Asia such as Algeria, Angola and Egypt so that, if oil and gas export from the Middle East is stopped, China would be able to procure increased amount of oil and gas from these countries at predetermined prices.
For example, Russia would divert oil and gas that were bound for Japan and export them to China instead.
China, BRICS, SCO and the Global South should continue to work together through the UN to supervise and regulate US/UK's proxies and quasi-proxies such as Israel, Ukraine and Japan.
6. Military deterrence against the US and Israel
The US and Israel understand only power and money. So, ultimately, the most effective way to deter them is to let them taste the power of superior weapons.
When the US and UK attacked the Houthis in Yemen, Russia strongly condemned them. [16]
So, if, despite China's diplomatic counter-actions, the US and Israel do not stop their attempt to escalate the conflict by attacking the Houthis and provoking Iran into a war, Russia can lease its sophisticated weapons to Iran. Then, Iran can transfer them to the Houthis.
For example, Russia can lease its S-400 anti-air and anti-missile defense systems to Iran. Then, Iran can transfer them to the Houthis. Russian volunteer technicians will operate the systems. S-400 will shoot down F/A-18s launched from US aircraft carriers. F/A-18s are not stealth fighters. So, they are easy preys for S-400. Also, S-400 will shoot down Tomahawk missiles launched from US submarines. Tomahawk missiles fly at subsonic speed. So, they are easy preys for S-400.
[Russia's S-400 anti-air and anti-missile defense systems]
[F/A-18 launched from a US aircraft carrier]
[A US attack submarine launching Tomahawk missiles while submerging]
Russia can lease its Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missiles to Iran. Then, Iran transfer them to the Houthis. Russian volunteer technicians will operate the systems. Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missiles will hit and sink US aircraft carriers. The US has no defense against Tsircon.
[Russia's Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missile]
[USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69)]
Russia can lease its RPK-6 missile torpedoes to Iran. Then, Iran can transfer them to the Houthis. Russian volunteer technicians will operate the systems. The Red Sea is narrow. RPK-6 missile torpedoes will detect and kill US attack submarines that launch Tomahawk missiles against the Houthis.
[Missile torpedoes detect and kill submarines]
Losing its F/A-18s, aircraft carriers and attack submarines one after another, the US will finally accept ceasefire in Gaza as well as the two state solution and enlarged buffer zone between Israel and Palestine guarded by UN peace-keeping forces.
If even the Houthis, which is an organization based upon the local tribe, can destroy the US’s F/A-18s, aircraft carriers and attack submarines, it means any country can destroy the US’s warplanes and warships. The US’s military hegemony, which the US believes it has, will be broken apart.
The Western countries’ centuries of imperialistic aggression and suppression will be finished. Relations between countries will become fair and equal based upon win-win relations and mutual respect.
The tide of the peace and stability will once again prevail and remain throughout the Middle East under the leadership and auspices of China, BRICS, SCO and the Global South.
Thank you.
References:
(1) "Iran, Saudi Arabia agree to resume ties, with China’s help", March 11th 2023, AP
(2) "Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Ethiopia formally join BRICS", January 1st 2024, Daily News Egypt
(3) "The numbers that reveal the extent of the destruction in Gaza", January 8th 2024, The Guardian
(4) "South Africa tells top UN court Israel is committing genocide in Gaza as landmark case begins", January 12th 2024, AP
(5) "US blocks UN Security Council demand for humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza", December 9th 2023, Reuters
(6) "Iran threatens Mediterranean closure over Gaza, without saying how", December 19th 2023, Reuters
(7) "Attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria (2023–present)", Wikipedia
(8) "IRGC threatens ‘direct action’ against Israel over senior commander’s slaying", December 19th 2023, Reuters
(9) "Now the truth emerges: how the US fuelled the rise of Isis in Syria and Iraq", June 3rd 2015, The Guardian
(10) "US claims deadly strike against pro-Iran militia in Baghdad", January 4th 2024, Rudaw
(11) "Ike’s Carrier Air Wing 3, USS Gravely, USS Philippine Sea and USS Mason Struck Houthi Targets", January 12th 2024, USNI News
(12) The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan, January 2023, CSIS
(13) "America can’t afford to ignore the logistics triad", July 2023, Brookings Institution
(14) "China’s Economic Stake in the Middle East: Its Thirst for Oil", October 11th 2023, The New York Times
(15) " 'Buffer zone' reducing Palestinian agricultural land in Gaza", June 16th 2008, The New Humanitarian
(16) "Russia condemns US and UK for 'irresponsible' strikes on Yemen", January 12th 2024, Reuters
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.