1. China's top diplomat Wang Yi strengthens China-Russia ties
On 25th July, it was announced that China's top diplomat Wang Yi, director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, also assumes the post of foreign minister of China.
Wang Yi was China's foreign minister from 2013 to 2022. So, he has "resumed" the post of foreign minister, to be exact.
Immediately after Wang Yi resumed the post of China's foreign minister, Russian President Putin's visit to China in October was announced. [1]
[Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov and Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi]
In middle of August, Wang Yi held a phone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to assure that China and Russia are reliable friends, partners to each other.
According to a news report, Wang emphasized that on the Ukraine crisis, China would uphold an independent and impartial position on any international multilateral occasion, sound an objective and rational voice, actively promote peace talks, and strive to seek a political solution.
Lavrov said that Russia highly endorsed the position paper put forward by China on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, and appreciated and welcomed the constructive role played by China in this regard. [2]
2. Russia will launch massive offensive or hold defensive lines
When Putin visits China in October, he would explain to Xi Jinping about Russia's plan on offensive against Ukraine.
(a) Case 1: Russia's massive offensive
Ukraine's so-called counter offensive has failed. Large number of Ukraine's tanks and armored personnel carriers were destroyed by mines of Russian robust defense lines. Ukraine forces' advance has been halted.
[Ukraine's tanks and armored personnel carriers were moving into a mine field of Russian defense lines...]
[... Then, Ukraine's tanks and armored personnel carriers were destroyed one after another. This happens everywhere in the front line]
So, against weakened Ukraine forces, Russia can start a massive and decisive offensive so as to advance, conquer Kiev and force Zelensky into an exile.
However, it is likely that, as Russian forces will advance, the US will provide more lethal weapons to Ukraine to slow down Russian advance and try to prolong the war as long as possible.
The US has already provided cluster bombs to Ukraine. If Russia counters by using cluster bombs, then, the US may let Ukraine use biological and chemical weapons. It is alleged that the US has developed and stock-piled biological and chemical weapons in a number of biological and chemical weapon laboratories in Ukraine. [3][4]
In May 2022, Putin said documentary evidence obtained suggested that these laboratories had been engaged in producing components that could be used to create biological weapons. [5]
The US may acquiesce in Ukraine military's seizing and confiscating biological and chemical weapons in the US laboratories in Ukraine so that Ukraine can use them against Russian forces despite the US and Ukraine being signatories of biological weapons and chemical weapons conventions.
As usual, the US and Ukraine will flatly deny the use of biological and chemical weapons and insist that it is Russia that used them.
Also, the US may persuade Poland and make it invade and occupy the Western regions of Ukraine to stop Russian forces' advancing. [6]
If these contingencies happen, Russia may decide to use tactical nuclear weapons and attack the Western regions of Ukraine so as to counter Ukraine's usage of biological and chemical weapons and prevent Poland forces from invading Ukraine.
When Putin visits China in October, he may communicate to Xi Jinping about the possibility of Russia's using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
The West will accuse Russia very much if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons. But, NATO including the US will never retaliate with tactical nuclear weapons, fearing an escalation to an all-out catastrophic nuclear war with Russia.
However, if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons, the world situation would become volatile and unpredictable. It would reduce the hurdle for the US to use tactical nuclear weapons against China in a Taiwan war in case it breaks out.
It would also stimulate and accelerate Japan, South Korea and even Australia to arm themselves with nuclear weapons. The NPT scheme would be broken apart. Actually, that's the situation the US and UK want to create - surrounding China with nuclear armed US proxies and letting them wage a nuclear war with China.
The US and UK want to provoke and get Russia to use tactical nuclear weapons.
(b) Case 2: Russia's holding defensive lines
Instead of launching a massive offensive, Russia may choose to maintain a defensive position to defend its occupied territories in Ukraine until an outcome of US presidential election of 2024 becomes available, hoping Donald Trump's victory.
Donald Trump is boasting that, if he is elected as a president of the US, he will end Ukraine War at once. [7]
[Russia's occupied territories in Ukraine where Russian speaking people are living]
Russia would defend its occupied territories in Ukraine where Russian speaking people are living. These are Crimea (annexed by Russia in 2014), Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Protecting Russian speaking people in Ukraine from mass-murdering by the Kiev regime is one of major objectives of the Russian special operation.
[Russia's defense line in Ukraine]
[An image illustration of Russia's dragon's teeth]
[An image illustration of Russia's layered defense line]
In this case, Russia would make only sporadic missile and drone attacks against Ukraine. Russian forces would not advance very much westward.
An outcome of US presidential election of 2024 will become available in November 2024. So, it's more than a year away.
But, as the Ukraine War is prolonged, the US and UK will try to intensify covert operations inside Russia to topple the Putin administration and replace it with a pro-West and anti-China administration.
In July, CIA Director William Burns said that disaffection in Russia with the war in Ukraine was a once-in-a-generation opportunity to recruit spies. [8]
[CIA's Headquarters, Langley, Virginia]
UK's MI6 has even openly urged Russians who are "appalled" by and opposing to the Ukraine War to become UK's spies, in an unusual public appeal for recruiting new agents. [9]
These are blatant violations of the UN Charter. The world must condemn the US and UK.
[UK's MI6 headquarters in London]
CIA and MI6 would say to Russian government officials, "Come to our side, then you can be a prime minister". CIA and MI6 would say to Russian military officers, "Come to our side, then you can be a general". CIA and MI6 would say to Russian oligarchs, "Come to our side, then you can double or even triple your assets".
If the Putin administration falls, China could fall too because, if an anti-China government is established in Russia, China's PLA would need to face two fronts and would not be able to concentrate upon a Taiwan crisis.
Actually, that's the situation the US and UK are trying to create. The US and UK's ultimate aim is to destroy China. The US and UK are firmly resolved that they must destroy China and Socialism with Chinese characteristics.
Under these circumstances, whether Russia launches a massive offensive or choose to maintain a defensive position, China's role as a peace-maker is getting even more important. The earlier a ceasefire and a peace deal is made, the better it would be for China.
3. China's 12 points peace plan on Ukraine War
In late February, China released "China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis" consisted of 12 points. [10]
The titles and excerpts of 12 points depicted in the statement are as follows:
1. Respecting the sovereignty of all countries. The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld.
2. Abandoning the Cold War mentality. All parties should, following the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security and bearing in mind the long-term peace and stability of the world, help forge a balanced, effective and sustainable European security architecture.
3. Ceasing hostilities.
4. Resuming peace talks.
5. Resolving the humanitarian crisis.
6. Protecting civilians and prisoners of war (POWs).
7. Keeping nuclear power plants safe.
8. Reducing strategic risks. Nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought.
9. Facilitating grain exports.
10. Stopping unilateral sanctions.
11. Keeping industrial and supply chains stable.
12. Promoting post-conflict reconstruction.
What is remarkable is that China is the only great power that put forward principles for the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.
The US, UK, France and Germany keep supplying weapons and military equipment to Ukraine so that the war would continue indefinitely.
Let me focus upon the 1st point and the 2nd point.
The 1st point of China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis provides "Respecting the sovereignty of all countries. The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld."
At first glance, this point may seem to support Ukraine's position as Ukraine asserts that it would never give up even an inch of its territory and that Russian troops should withdraw from Ukraine's territory.
However, Russia will never accept it. Russia stipulates that Crimea is an integral inherent part of Russia and that Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson belong to Russia after the respective referendums.
Ukraine and Russia are sharply contentious on territorial claims. Territorial contention is the most controversial and contentious issue between Ukraine and Russia.
How this conundrum can be solved?
To solve it, we should need to revisit and examine what "sovereignty" exactly means.
It is generally understood that the notion of state sovereignty contains four aspects consisting of territory, population, authority and recognition.
During the Age of Enlightenment of the 17th century, the "Social contract" was suggested as a theory for establishing sovereignty and, by the late 18th century, widely accepted, especially in such countries as the United States, France and UK.
Social contract arguments typically are that individuals have consented to surrender some of their powers and entrust them to the authority in exchange for protecting themselves and maintenance of the social order.
Accordingly, Thomas Hobbes' theory—that the ruler's sovereignty is contracted to him by the people in return for his maintaining their physical safety—led him to conclude that if and when the ruler fails, the people recover their ability to protect themselves by forming a new contract. [11]
[Thomas Hobbes and the original cover of his work Leviathan (1651)]
Now, let's apply this understanding on sovereignty to the situation of Ukraine since 2014 when so-called the Maidan Revolution happened.
After the Maidan Revolution, which was actually a coup backed by the US, pro-Russian protesters were killed and massacred in such places as Odessa. So, people in Crimea who were mostly Russian speaking people held a referendum and decided to belong to Russia, asking for protection. [12]
[The burning trade union building in Odessa where pro-Russian people were staying, May 2, 2014. REUTERS/Yevgeny Volokin]
Also, since a civil war took place in Donbas region, the Kiev government have mobilized SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) and its military, suppressing and mass-murdering Russian speaking people in the region. [13]
[Ukraine soldiers during the civil war]
[Damaged building in Donetsk, November 2014]
As mentioned above, sovereignty comes from people. People form a government and entrust their sovereignty to the government in exchange for protecting themselves. Therefore, when the Kiev regime start mass-murdering Russian speaking people in Ukraine territory after 2014, the Kiev government abused its sovereignty and therefore lost its sovereignty over them.
When the Kiev regime started mass-murdering Russian speaking people within Ukraine territory, Ukraine lost its sovereignty over them. Then, those Russian speaking people exercised their own sovereignty by holding referendums and decided to belong to Russia.
Thus, it can be concluded that that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson should belong to Russia after the respective referendums. Ukraine's acceptance that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson belong to Russia should be a part of the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.
Also, demographically speaking, as people in these regions are Russian speaking people and traditionally have strong ties with Russia, Ukraine's acceptance that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson belong to Russia would contribute to lasting peace and stability of the regions.
However, in case Ukraine can never accept that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson belong to Russia, a compromise might be reached by Ukraine's leasing Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson to Russia for 99 years.
In this case, Ukraine would keep territories of Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson while Russia would govern and control these regions. It depends on the coming development of military situation in Ukraine.
The 2nd point of China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis provides "Abandoning the Cold War mentality. All parties should, following the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security and bearing in mind the long-term peace and stability of the world, help forge a balanced, effective and sustainable European security architecture."
The key word is "Sustainable European security architecture".
How "Sustainable European security architecture" can be achieved?
Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has kept expanding eastward. It has included former Soviet's satellite states such as Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. Finally, Ukraine which had been a part of the Soviet Union started talking about joining NATO. This NATO's eastward expansion has destabilized the region and caused Ukraine war.
As China's 2nd point indicates the Cold War mentality should be abandoned. Adjacent hostile powers surely lead to a conflict.
Therefore, instead of the Cold War mentality and the military bloc of NATO, a buffer zone of neutral states should be formed in Europe for the purpose of establishing sustainable European security architecture and lasting peace.
Thus, Ukraine should become a neutral state and pledge that it will never join NATO. The neutrality of Ukraine should be a part of the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.
4. China's efforts to make peace in Ukraine
In May, Li Hui, Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs, visited Ukraine and Russia to present China's 12 points peace plan on Ukraine War. [14][15]
[Li Hui, Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs]
In early August, Li Hui attended a peace conference held in Saudi Arabia and explained to nearly 40 countries attending the conference about China's 12 points peace plan on Ukraine War. [16]
By presenting objectively to the world nations a grim and gloomy prospect of Ukraine War that can possibly escalate to a biological and chemical warfare and even a nuclear war, China can continue to persuade and make the world nations demand an immediate ceasefire and a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.
Li Hui together with Chinese ambassadors worldwide can present and explain China's 12 points peace plan to the world nations strenuously and patiently.
China can persuade the world countries, explaining that, when the Kiev government started mass-murdering Russian speaking people in Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the Kiev government lost its sovereignty over these regions.
Then, people in these regions exercised their sovereignty and conducted referendums, result of which clearly indicated their willingness to belong to Russia. Therefore, Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson should belong to Russia.
In case Ukraine can never accept that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson belong to Russia, a compromise might be reached by Ukraine's leasing Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson to Russia for 99 years.
China can also explain to the world nations that European countries and Russia has been waging wars repeatedly for centuries and that, as long as European countries and Russia lie adjacently another war would be inevitable. China can persuade the world nations that creating a buffer zone by making Ukraine a neutral state is the way for European lasting peace.
[Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China]
Being warmongers, G7 countries are unlikely to accept China’s proposal. But, middle powers and small countries in Asia, Africa, and Central & South American countries would accept China’s proposal.
There is BRICS Summit meeting in South Africa from August 22nd to 24th. There, China can share her 12 points peace plan with other BRICS countries.
China and South Africa can persuade African countries. China and India can persuade Asian countries. China, Brazil and Argentina can persuade Central & South American countries.
China should demand that CIA and MI6 should stop recruiting their spies in Russia. China can send her experts of counter-espionage who would work with Russian FSB in identifying and neutralizing CIA and MI6's agents.
China can also warn to the US and UK that, unless CIA and MI6 stop recruiting their spies in Russia, China will consider exporting to Russia various products including tens of thousands of industrial drones that can be turned into a military use.
Speed is vital. The US and UK are very quick in making decisions and implementing them. China should not allow the US and UK to take an initiative on international affairs. China should take an initiative on international affairs.
Then, China, together with BRICS and Global South can make a resolution with the overwhelming majority at the UN, which demands the West and Ukraine to accept that (1) Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson should become Russian territories and (2) Ukraine should become a neutral state, because these will lead to the lasting peace in Europe.
China, together with BRICS and Global South can make warmonger G7 and the West isolated.
Thereafter, China, together with BRICS and Global South, can demand the West and Ukraine to accept that (1) Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson should become Russian territories and (2) Ukraine should become a neutral state to make a buffer zone between NATO and Russia, because these will lead to the lasting peace in Europe.
G7 and the West will have no choice but accept China’s peace plan.
Thank you.
References:
(1) "Putin's visit to China during BRI forum in October shows Russia's support to China: experts", July 26th 2023, The Global Times
(2) "China and Russia 'trustworthy and reliable good friends': Wang Yi", August 8th 2023, The Global Times
(3) "China urges U.S. to disclose more details about biolabs in Ukraine", March 8th 2022, CGTN
(4) "U.S. biolabs in Ukraine must be investigated", April 11th 2022, CGTN
(5) "Evidence obtained by Russia reveals U.S. biolabs in Ukraine developing biological weapons: Putin", May 17th 2022, CGTN
(6) "Putin is again warning that Ukraine could be invaded and occupied by Poland", July 22nd 2023, Business Insider
(7) "Trump says he would ‘solve’ war in Ukraine in 24 hours if reelected ", March 28th 2023, The Hill
(8) "CIA says wartime Russia is a rare spy-recruiting opportunity", July 2nd 2023, Reuters
(9) "UK Spy Chief Urges Anti-War Russians to ‘Join Hands With Us’ ", July 19th 2023, Kyiv Post
(10) China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis, February 24th 2023, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China
(11) Sovereignty, Wikipedia
(12) "Ukraine clashes: dozens dead after Odessa building fire", May 2nd 2014, The Gurdian
(13) "Ukrainian military open fire on Donetsk Republic", November 19th 2016, TASS
(14) "Envoy Li Hui's meeting with Zelensky marks a good start to his European tour", May 19th 2023, The Global Times
(15) "China's special envoy wraps up European tour; China to unite more forces willing to promote peaceful resolution of Ukraine crisis: experts", May 27th 2023, The Global Times
(16) "China to send special envoy to Saudi Arabia for Ukraine talks", August 4th 2023, Reuters
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
On 25th July, it was announced that China's top diplomat Wang Yi, director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, also assumes the post of foreign minister of China.
Wang Yi was China's foreign minister from 2013 to 2022. So, he has "resumed" the post of foreign minister, to be exact.
Immediately after Wang Yi resumed the post of China's foreign minister, Russian President Putin's visit to China in October was announced. [1]
[Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov and Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi]
In middle of August, Wang Yi held a phone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to assure that China and Russia are reliable friends, partners to each other.
According to a news report, Wang emphasized that on the Ukraine crisis, China would uphold an independent and impartial position on any international multilateral occasion, sound an objective and rational voice, actively promote peace talks, and strive to seek a political solution.
Lavrov said that Russia highly endorsed the position paper put forward by China on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, and appreciated and welcomed the constructive role played by China in this regard. [2]
2. Russia will launch massive offensive or hold defensive lines
When Putin visits China in October, he would explain to Xi Jinping about Russia's plan on offensive against Ukraine.
(a) Case 1: Russia's massive offensive
Ukraine's so-called counter offensive has failed. Large number of Ukraine's tanks and armored personnel carriers were destroyed by mines of Russian robust defense lines. Ukraine forces' advance has been halted.
[Ukraine's tanks and armored personnel carriers were moving into a mine field of Russian defense lines...]
[... Then, Ukraine's tanks and armored personnel carriers were destroyed one after another. This happens everywhere in the front line]
So, against weakened Ukraine forces, Russia can start a massive and decisive offensive so as to advance, conquer Kiev and force Zelensky into an exile.
However, it is likely that, as Russian forces will advance, the US will provide more lethal weapons to Ukraine to slow down Russian advance and try to prolong the war as long as possible.
The US has already provided cluster bombs to Ukraine. If Russia counters by using cluster bombs, then, the US may let Ukraine use biological and chemical weapons. It is alleged that the US has developed and stock-piled biological and chemical weapons in a number of biological and chemical weapon laboratories in Ukraine. [3][4]
In May 2022, Putin said documentary evidence obtained suggested that these laboratories had been engaged in producing components that could be used to create biological weapons. [5]
The US may acquiesce in Ukraine military's seizing and confiscating biological and chemical weapons in the US laboratories in Ukraine so that Ukraine can use them against Russian forces despite the US and Ukraine being signatories of biological weapons and chemical weapons conventions.
As usual, the US and Ukraine will flatly deny the use of biological and chemical weapons and insist that it is Russia that used them.
Also, the US may persuade Poland and make it invade and occupy the Western regions of Ukraine to stop Russian forces' advancing. [6]
If these contingencies happen, Russia may decide to use tactical nuclear weapons and attack the Western regions of Ukraine so as to counter Ukraine's usage of biological and chemical weapons and prevent Poland forces from invading Ukraine.
When Putin visits China in October, he may communicate to Xi Jinping about the possibility of Russia's using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
The West will accuse Russia very much if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons. But, NATO including the US will never retaliate with tactical nuclear weapons, fearing an escalation to an all-out catastrophic nuclear war with Russia.
However, if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons, the world situation would become volatile and unpredictable. It would reduce the hurdle for the US to use tactical nuclear weapons against China in a Taiwan war in case it breaks out.
It would also stimulate and accelerate Japan, South Korea and even Australia to arm themselves with nuclear weapons. The NPT scheme would be broken apart. Actually, that's the situation the US and UK want to create - surrounding China with nuclear armed US proxies and letting them wage a nuclear war with China.
The US and UK want to provoke and get Russia to use tactical nuclear weapons.
(b) Case 2: Russia's holding defensive lines
Instead of launching a massive offensive, Russia may choose to maintain a defensive position to defend its occupied territories in Ukraine until an outcome of US presidential election of 2024 becomes available, hoping Donald Trump's victory.
Donald Trump is boasting that, if he is elected as a president of the US, he will end Ukraine War at once. [7]
[Russia's occupied territories in Ukraine where Russian speaking people are living]
Russia would defend its occupied territories in Ukraine where Russian speaking people are living. These are Crimea (annexed by Russia in 2014), Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Protecting Russian speaking people in Ukraine from mass-murdering by the Kiev regime is one of major objectives of the Russian special operation.
[Russia's defense line in Ukraine]
[An image illustration of Russia's dragon's teeth]
[An image illustration of Russia's layered defense line]
In this case, Russia would make only sporadic missile and drone attacks against Ukraine. Russian forces would not advance very much westward.
An outcome of US presidential election of 2024 will become available in November 2024. So, it's more than a year away.
But, as the Ukraine War is prolonged, the US and UK will try to intensify covert operations inside Russia to topple the Putin administration and replace it with a pro-West and anti-China administration.
In July, CIA Director William Burns said that disaffection in Russia with the war in Ukraine was a once-in-a-generation opportunity to recruit spies. [8]
[CIA's Headquarters, Langley, Virginia]
UK's MI6 has even openly urged Russians who are "appalled" by and opposing to the Ukraine War to become UK's spies, in an unusual public appeal for recruiting new agents. [9]
These are blatant violations of the UN Charter. The world must condemn the US and UK.
[UK's MI6 headquarters in London]
CIA and MI6 would say to Russian government officials, "Come to our side, then you can be a prime minister". CIA and MI6 would say to Russian military officers, "Come to our side, then you can be a general". CIA and MI6 would say to Russian oligarchs, "Come to our side, then you can double or even triple your assets".
If the Putin administration falls, China could fall too because, if an anti-China government is established in Russia, China's PLA would need to face two fronts and would not be able to concentrate upon a Taiwan crisis.
Actually, that's the situation the US and UK are trying to create. The US and UK's ultimate aim is to destroy China. The US and UK are firmly resolved that they must destroy China and Socialism with Chinese characteristics.
Under these circumstances, whether Russia launches a massive offensive or choose to maintain a defensive position, China's role as a peace-maker is getting even more important. The earlier a ceasefire and a peace deal is made, the better it would be for China.
3. China's 12 points peace plan on Ukraine War
In late February, China released "China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis" consisted of 12 points. [10]
The titles and excerpts of 12 points depicted in the statement are as follows:
1. Respecting the sovereignty of all countries. The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld.
2. Abandoning the Cold War mentality. All parties should, following the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security and bearing in mind the long-term peace and stability of the world, help forge a balanced, effective and sustainable European security architecture.
3. Ceasing hostilities.
4. Resuming peace talks.
5. Resolving the humanitarian crisis.
6. Protecting civilians and prisoners of war (POWs).
7. Keeping nuclear power plants safe.
8. Reducing strategic risks. Nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought.
9. Facilitating grain exports.
10. Stopping unilateral sanctions.
11. Keeping industrial and supply chains stable.
12. Promoting post-conflict reconstruction.
What is remarkable is that China is the only great power that put forward principles for the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.
The US, UK, France and Germany keep supplying weapons and military equipment to Ukraine so that the war would continue indefinitely.
Let me focus upon the 1st point and the 2nd point.
The 1st point of China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis provides "Respecting the sovereignty of all countries. The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld."
At first glance, this point may seem to support Ukraine's position as Ukraine asserts that it would never give up even an inch of its territory and that Russian troops should withdraw from Ukraine's territory.
However, Russia will never accept it. Russia stipulates that Crimea is an integral inherent part of Russia and that Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson belong to Russia after the respective referendums.
Ukraine and Russia are sharply contentious on territorial claims. Territorial contention is the most controversial and contentious issue between Ukraine and Russia.
How this conundrum can be solved?
To solve it, we should need to revisit and examine what "sovereignty" exactly means.
It is generally understood that the notion of state sovereignty contains four aspects consisting of territory, population, authority and recognition.
During the Age of Enlightenment of the 17th century, the "Social contract" was suggested as a theory for establishing sovereignty and, by the late 18th century, widely accepted, especially in such countries as the United States, France and UK.
Social contract arguments typically are that individuals have consented to surrender some of their powers and entrust them to the authority in exchange for protecting themselves and maintenance of the social order.
Accordingly, Thomas Hobbes' theory—that the ruler's sovereignty is contracted to him by the people in return for his maintaining their physical safety—led him to conclude that if and when the ruler fails, the people recover their ability to protect themselves by forming a new contract. [11]
[Thomas Hobbes and the original cover of his work Leviathan (1651)]
Now, let's apply this understanding on sovereignty to the situation of Ukraine since 2014 when so-called the Maidan Revolution happened.
After the Maidan Revolution, which was actually a coup backed by the US, pro-Russian protesters were killed and massacred in such places as Odessa. So, people in Crimea who were mostly Russian speaking people held a referendum and decided to belong to Russia, asking for protection. [12]
[The burning trade union building in Odessa where pro-Russian people were staying, May 2, 2014. REUTERS/Yevgeny Volokin]
Also, since a civil war took place in Donbas region, the Kiev government have mobilized SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) and its military, suppressing and mass-murdering Russian speaking people in the region. [13]
[Ukraine soldiers during the civil war]
[Damaged building in Donetsk, November 2014]
As mentioned above, sovereignty comes from people. People form a government and entrust their sovereignty to the government in exchange for protecting themselves. Therefore, when the Kiev regime start mass-murdering Russian speaking people in Ukraine territory after 2014, the Kiev government abused its sovereignty and therefore lost its sovereignty over them.
When the Kiev regime started mass-murdering Russian speaking people within Ukraine territory, Ukraine lost its sovereignty over them. Then, those Russian speaking people exercised their own sovereignty by holding referendums and decided to belong to Russia.
Thus, it can be concluded that that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson should belong to Russia after the respective referendums. Ukraine's acceptance that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson belong to Russia should be a part of the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.
Also, demographically speaking, as people in these regions are Russian speaking people and traditionally have strong ties with Russia, Ukraine's acceptance that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson belong to Russia would contribute to lasting peace and stability of the regions.
However, in case Ukraine can never accept that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson belong to Russia, a compromise might be reached by Ukraine's leasing Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson to Russia for 99 years.
In this case, Ukraine would keep territories of Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson while Russia would govern and control these regions. It depends on the coming development of military situation in Ukraine.
The 2nd point of China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis provides "Abandoning the Cold War mentality. All parties should, following the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security and bearing in mind the long-term peace and stability of the world, help forge a balanced, effective and sustainable European security architecture."
The key word is "Sustainable European security architecture".
How "Sustainable European security architecture" can be achieved?
Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has kept expanding eastward. It has included former Soviet's satellite states such as Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. Finally, Ukraine which had been a part of the Soviet Union started talking about joining NATO. This NATO's eastward expansion has destabilized the region and caused Ukraine war.
As China's 2nd point indicates the Cold War mentality should be abandoned. Adjacent hostile powers surely lead to a conflict.
Therefore, instead of the Cold War mentality and the military bloc of NATO, a buffer zone of neutral states should be formed in Europe for the purpose of establishing sustainable European security architecture and lasting peace.
Thus, Ukraine should become a neutral state and pledge that it will never join NATO. The neutrality of Ukraine should be a part of the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.
4. China's efforts to make peace in Ukraine
In May, Li Hui, Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs, visited Ukraine and Russia to present China's 12 points peace plan on Ukraine War. [14][15]
[Li Hui, Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs]
In early August, Li Hui attended a peace conference held in Saudi Arabia and explained to nearly 40 countries attending the conference about China's 12 points peace plan on Ukraine War. [16]
By presenting objectively to the world nations a grim and gloomy prospect of Ukraine War that can possibly escalate to a biological and chemical warfare and even a nuclear war, China can continue to persuade and make the world nations demand an immediate ceasefire and a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.
Li Hui together with Chinese ambassadors worldwide can present and explain China's 12 points peace plan to the world nations strenuously and patiently.
China can persuade the world countries, explaining that, when the Kiev government started mass-murdering Russian speaking people in Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the Kiev government lost its sovereignty over these regions.
Then, people in these regions exercised their sovereignty and conducted referendums, result of which clearly indicated their willingness to belong to Russia. Therefore, Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson should belong to Russia.
In case Ukraine can never accept that Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson belong to Russia, a compromise might be reached by Ukraine's leasing Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson to Russia for 99 years.
China can also explain to the world nations that European countries and Russia has been waging wars repeatedly for centuries and that, as long as European countries and Russia lie adjacently another war would be inevitable. China can persuade the world nations that creating a buffer zone by making Ukraine a neutral state is the way for European lasting peace.
[Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China]
Being warmongers, G7 countries are unlikely to accept China’s proposal. But, middle powers and small countries in Asia, Africa, and Central & South American countries would accept China’s proposal.
There is BRICS Summit meeting in South Africa from August 22nd to 24th. There, China can share her 12 points peace plan with other BRICS countries.
China and South Africa can persuade African countries. China and India can persuade Asian countries. China, Brazil and Argentina can persuade Central & South American countries.
China should demand that CIA and MI6 should stop recruiting their spies in Russia. China can send her experts of counter-espionage who would work with Russian FSB in identifying and neutralizing CIA and MI6's agents.
China can also warn to the US and UK that, unless CIA and MI6 stop recruiting their spies in Russia, China will consider exporting to Russia various products including tens of thousands of industrial drones that can be turned into a military use.
Speed is vital. The US and UK are very quick in making decisions and implementing them. China should not allow the US and UK to take an initiative on international affairs. China should take an initiative on international affairs.
Then, China, together with BRICS and Global South can make a resolution with the overwhelming majority at the UN, which demands the West and Ukraine to accept that (1) Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson should become Russian territories and (2) Ukraine should become a neutral state, because these will lead to the lasting peace in Europe.
China, together with BRICS and Global South can make warmonger G7 and the West isolated.
Thereafter, China, together with BRICS and Global South, can demand the West and Ukraine to accept that (1) Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson should become Russian territories and (2) Ukraine should become a neutral state to make a buffer zone between NATO and Russia, because these will lead to the lasting peace in Europe.
G7 and the West will have no choice but accept China’s peace plan.
Thank you.
References:
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(10) China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis, February 24th 2023, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China
(11) Sovereignty, Wikipedia
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(16) "China to send special envoy to Saudi Arabia for Ukraine talks", August 4th 2023, Reuters
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.