1. US forward operating bases in Japan are untenable
US forward operating bases in Japan are untenable simply because they will be destroyed instantly by China and Russia's thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles in the event of military conflicts. US forward operating bases in Japan, together with US warships, warplanes, tanks, artilleries and facilities such as fuel tanks and ammunition damps, will be destroyed within as a matter of weeks or even days by China and Russia's saturated missile attacks.
[Only 4 direct missile hits on the runway would suffice to shut down US Kadena Air base. After that, each US warplane and facility would be destroyed one by one by China's ballistic and cruise missiles. - “The U.S.-China Military Scorecard”, Rand Corporation, 2015]
[US forward operating bases in Japan are completely within the range of China's thousands of ballistic missiles]
Also, US forward operating bases in Japan are so hard and difficult to be supplied in military conflicts as the Chinese and Russian Navies will intercept and sink US supply ships sailing all the way from the US mainland to Japan over the vast Pacific Ocean. US supply ships will be an easy prey for China and Russia's attack submarines as the US doesn't have sufficient cruisers and destroyers to protect its supply ships. A war is all about logistics. Military bases that can't be supplied are untenable.
Actually, the US military has already started gradual withdrawal from Japan. In November, it was announced that a permanent deployment of US Airforce's F-15 fighter jets in Kadena Airforce base, Okinawa, Japan would be ceased and that it will be replaced by 6-month rotational temporally deployment of F-22s. [1]
Objective purely military consideration dictates that, in the coming years and decades, the US will gradually reduce and downsize its military bases in Japan. In place of military bases in Japan, the US will consolidate its military bases in Guam. Also, the US will increase and scale-up its sharing of military bases with Australia. [2][3][4]
2. Japan faces 2 options
Under these circumstances, Japan will face two options: either (1) beefing up its military to defend by itself, revising its pacifist constitution, and hyping up taxation to finance huge defense budget, or (2) promoting friendship with China and Russia and transforming itself into a neutral state to be a buffer zone between China/Russia and the US.
The option 1 is a path to Japan's destruction and ruin. Actually, the US is trying to let Japan take this option as the US wants to transform Japan into a US proxy that attacks China and Russia just like the US has transformed Ukraine into a US proxy that provokes an attacks Russia. If Japan takes the option 1, the US will demand Japan to restrict businesses with China and Russia, which will damage Japan's economy. Also, the Japanese people will suffer heavy tax burden, which will shrink Japan's consumer spending and result in Japan's economic downturn. [5]
In contrast, the option 2 is a path to the peace and prosperity of Japan. By becoming a neutral state, Japan will be able to avoid being involved in a military conflict. By having friendly relations with China, Japan's economy can keep growing. If Japan joins China's Belt and Road Initiative, Japanese businesses will be able to operate in not only huge China's consumer markets but fast growing Eurasian markets all the way up to Central Asia, the Middle East, Eastern and Central Europe. Without heavy tax burden for defense budget, the Japanese people can enjoy better and favorable consumption.
3. Japan's path to peace and prosperity and SCO's security guarantee
Thus, Japan should take the option 2. In order to implement and ensure the option 2, the Japanese people should pick up and assemble pro-China and pro-Russia politicians from LDP and CDP and let them establish a new party that will seek for friendly relations with China and Russia. Then, the Japanese people should make the newly established pro-China and pro-Russia party cooperate with pro-China Komeito-party so that the two parties can form a coalition government.
In order to support and facilitate the above Japanese people's move, China and Russia can propose to Japan that the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), members of which include China, Russia and India among others, will provide security guarantee to Japan if Japan becomes a neutral state and form a buffer zone between China/Russia and the US.
For the sake of peace and prosperity of Japan, the Japanese people, Japanese businesses, Japanese civil society and Japanese students should work together to establish a pro-China and pro-Russia government and make Japan transform into a neutral state to become a buffer zone between China/Russia and the US. Joining the process itself will make the Japanese people happy as it is the task to make Japan peaceful and prosperous for its existing and coming generations and contribute to the peace and prosperity of Asia and the world.
Thank you.
Reference:
(1) "Chinese threat to Japan and Okinawa bases behind F-15 phaseout, expert says", November 14th 2022, Stars and Stripes
(2) "US 'fortifying Australia into a forward operating base' with B-52 bomber deployment", November 4th 2022, The Manila Times
(3) "Former US Navy secretary calls Australia the “tip of the spear” against China", November 29th 2022, World Socialist Web Site
(4) "Secret plans for new port outside Darwin to accommodate visiting US Marines", June 23rd 2019, ABC News
(5) "The Case for Offshore Balancing - A Superior U.S. Grand Strategy" by John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2016 Issue
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
US forward operating bases in Japan are untenable simply because they will be destroyed instantly by China and Russia's thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles in the event of military conflicts. US forward operating bases in Japan, together with US warships, warplanes, tanks, artilleries and facilities such as fuel tanks and ammunition damps, will be destroyed within as a matter of weeks or even days by China and Russia's saturated missile attacks.
[Only 4 direct missile hits on the runway would suffice to shut down US Kadena Air base. After that, each US warplane and facility would be destroyed one by one by China's ballistic and cruise missiles. - “The U.S.-China Military Scorecard”, Rand Corporation, 2015]
[US forward operating bases in Japan are completely within the range of China's thousands of ballistic missiles]
Also, US forward operating bases in Japan are so hard and difficult to be supplied in military conflicts as the Chinese and Russian Navies will intercept and sink US supply ships sailing all the way from the US mainland to Japan over the vast Pacific Ocean. US supply ships will be an easy prey for China and Russia's attack submarines as the US doesn't have sufficient cruisers and destroyers to protect its supply ships. A war is all about logistics. Military bases that can't be supplied are untenable.
Actually, the US military has already started gradual withdrawal from Japan. In November, it was announced that a permanent deployment of US Airforce's F-15 fighter jets in Kadena Airforce base, Okinawa, Japan would be ceased and that it will be replaced by 6-month rotational temporally deployment of F-22s. [1]
Objective purely military consideration dictates that, in the coming years and decades, the US will gradually reduce and downsize its military bases in Japan. In place of military bases in Japan, the US will consolidate its military bases in Guam. Also, the US will increase and scale-up its sharing of military bases with Australia. [2][3][4]
2. Japan faces 2 options
Under these circumstances, Japan will face two options: either (1) beefing up its military to defend by itself, revising its pacifist constitution, and hyping up taxation to finance huge defense budget, or (2) promoting friendship with China and Russia and transforming itself into a neutral state to be a buffer zone between China/Russia and the US.
The option 1 is a path to Japan's destruction and ruin. Actually, the US is trying to let Japan take this option as the US wants to transform Japan into a US proxy that attacks China and Russia just like the US has transformed Ukraine into a US proxy that provokes an attacks Russia. If Japan takes the option 1, the US will demand Japan to restrict businesses with China and Russia, which will damage Japan's economy. Also, the Japanese people will suffer heavy tax burden, which will shrink Japan's consumer spending and result in Japan's economic downturn. [5]
In contrast, the option 2 is a path to the peace and prosperity of Japan. By becoming a neutral state, Japan will be able to avoid being involved in a military conflict. By having friendly relations with China, Japan's economy can keep growing. If Japan joins China's Belt and Road Initiative, Japanese businesses will be able to operate in not only huge China's consumer markets but fast growing Eurasian markets all the way up to Central Asia, the Middle East, Eastern and Central Europe. Without heavy tax burden for defense budget, the Japanese people can enjoy better and favorable consumption.
3. Japan's path to peace and prosperity and SCO's security guarantee
Thus, Japan should take the option 2. In order to implement and ensure the option 2, the Japanese people should pick up and assemble pro-China and pro-Russia politicians from LDP and CDP and let them establish a new party that will seek for friendly relations with China and Russia. Then, the Japanese people should make the newly established pro-China and pro-Russia party cooperate with pro-China Komeito-party so that the two parties can form a coalition government.
In order to support and facilitate the above Japanese people's move, China and Russia can propose to Japan that the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), members of which include China, Russia and India among others, will provide security guarantee to Japan if Japan becomes a neutral state and form a buffer zone between China/Russia and the US.
For the sake of peace and prosperity of Japan, the Japanese people, Japanese businesses, Japanese civil society and Japanese students should work together to establish a pro-China and pro-Russia government and make Japan transform into a neutral state to become a buffer zone between China/Russia and the US. Joining the process itself will make the Japanese people happy as it is the task to make Japan peaceful and prosperous for its existing and coming generations and contribute to the peace and prosperity of Asia and the world.
Thank you.
Reference:
(1) "Chinese threat to Japan and Okinawa bases behind F-15 phaseout, expert says", November 14th 2022, Stars and Stripes
(2) "US 'fortifying Australia into a forward operating base' with B-52 bomber deployment", November 4th 2022, The Manila Times
(3) "Former US Navy secretary calls Australia the “tip of the spear” against China", November 29th 2022, World Socialist Web Site
(4) "Secret plans for new port outside Darwin to accommodate visiting US Marines", June 23rd 2019, ABC News
(5) "The Case for Offshore Balancing - A Superior U.S. Grand Strategy" by John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2016 Issue
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.