1. SCO's security guarantee to South Korea
As I mentioned in my previous article, SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) can make a proposal to provide security guarantee to South Korea in return for the US and South Korea’s (1) pledge that South Korea will become a neutral state to be a buffer state between SCO and the US and (2) acceptance that the US military will withdraw from the Korean Peninsula.
Almost every military expert agrees that the US can never overwhelm North Korea militarily. Even if the US military conducts its severest attack against North Korea including nuclear attack, North Korea's mobile nuclear ICBMs hidden deep in tunnels in its mountainous areas will be able to survive and be used to retaliate against the US.
[HNEMP (High Altitude Nuclear Electromagnetic Pulse)]
According to a US Congressional report, North Korea, with its nuclear ICBMs, can launch an EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) attack against the US by detonating nuclear bombs at high altitude over the US. An EMP attack would destroy the US electric grid and electronic equipment. Then, US food production, storage and distribution systems would break down quickly. In one year, up to 90% of the population could perish from starvation, disease and societal collapse.
In addition, there is no way for U.S. Forces in Korea to defend themselves against North Korea's missile attack with chemical and biological warheads.
Given the incapacity of the US military against North Korea, the US has no choice but accept the proposal.
2. US offshore balancing strategy and Japan's beefing up its military
Then, the withdrawal of US military from South Korea would create a momentum of withdrawal of US military from Japan because a major reason of US military forces’ staying in Japan is deterrence against North Korea.
Actually, there is already a symptom of US military forces’ withdrawal from Japan.
The US has already decided to replace a permanent station of F-15 fighters in Kadena Air Force base in Okinawa, Japan with a six-month temporary rotation of F-22 fighters.
[Only 4 direct missile hits on the runway would suffice to shut down US Kadena Air base. After that, each US warplane and facility would be destroyed one by one by China's ballistic and cruise missiles. - “The U.S.-China Military Scorecard”, Rand Corporation, 2015]
According to a news article of Stars and Stripes, Steve Ganyard, a former deputy assistant secretary of state and Marine fighter pilot, said, “You can look at it (removal of the F-15s) as the USAF coming to grips with the reality that nothing on the first island chain, especially not Kadena, will be survivable in a conflict with China.”
“China changes that and puts everything south of Kagoshima (in southern Japan) particularly at risk,” he said. Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, south of Hiroshima, and Yokota Air Base in western Tokyo may also be targeted, he said, “if things get really tough.” [1]
Considering that Stars and Stripes is an official US military newspaper, the above comment is supposed to reflect the US government’s position to some extent.
The Japanese main islands are well within the range of China’s thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles. Thus, in case of China-US military conflict, US bases in Japan as well as US war planes, war ships, artilleries and other weapons will be targeted and destroyed completely within weeks or even days.
US military forces in Japan can't defend themselves against China’s saturated missile attack still less defend Japan. The US doesn’t have military capacity to defend Japan.
Therefore, from a purely military viewpoint, it is reasonable that US military forces would withdraw from Japan. The US would rather move their military forces to Guam and Australia and consolidate US bases there.
US military may share Australian air force and naval bases.
The United States is reportedly planning to build facilities to deploy up to six nuclear-capable B-52 bombers in northern Australia at RAAF Tindal Air Base, south of the city of Darwin. [2]
The Australian government is currently building a dry dock facility in Henderson, near Perth, which will be able to serve large naval vessels including nuclear submarines. The RAN Henderson naval base can be a home base for several US Navy Virginia-class submarines. [3]
There was a report that the Australian government was planning a new commercial port in the Glyde Point area just outside Darwin, which could accommodate US marines and large amphibious warships such as the USS Wasp. [4]
However, moving US military forces from Japan to Guam and Australia will not decrease the possibility of military conflict in the East Asia. Rather, it will increase the possibility of military conflict because moving US military forces from Japan to Guam and Australia does suitably conform to the US Offshore Balancing strategy. [5]
The US doesn’t want to fight directly with China. The US rather would like its regional allies to fight against China. More specifically, the US wants Japan to fight a proxy war against China for the US just like Ukraine is fighting a proxy war against Russia for the US.
Facing US military forces’ gradual withdrawal from Japan, the Japanese conservative government will advocate to beef up Japan’s military forces.
Japan's ruling parties, LDP and Komeito-party, have agreed that Japan should procure "offensive weapons" to attack enemy bases, violating the constitution. The Japanese conservative government is planning to double its defense budget. [6]
The Japanese conservative government is planning to procure hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US, which would be equipped with dirty bombs.
The Japanese conservative government will try to revise the Japan’s pacifist constitution so that Japan would be able to arm itself with more offensive weapons including even having or sharing nuclear weapons.
Being under control of the US government implicitly, Japanese opposition parties would also support Japan's militarization.
Then, the US military and intelligence organizations may manipulate a certain “incident” which would make the relations between China and Japan become hostile and belligerent such as a skirmish or clash of China and Japan’s warships nearby Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.
When a conflict breaks out between China and Japan, the US would keep staying out of the conflict, taking a position that a territorial dispute should be solved between parties concerned and that the US direct fighting with China could lead to a nuclear war.
Meanwhile, Japanese media controlled by the US would incite the Japanese people to escalate the conflict just like the Ukraine people are incited to fight to the death.
The ultimate goal of the US is to let China and Japan wage a nuclear war.
The Japanese people underestimate the wrath of China. In case of Japan's attack against China, China will retaliate by attacking Japan with all her might. China will destroy all Japanese military bases in Japan.
If Japan attacks China's cities with its Tomahawk cruise missiles with dirty bombs, China will retaliate by attacking Japan's cities with tactical nuclear weapons.
Remember, during World War II, Imperial Japanese Army killed as many as more than 10 million Chinese people. China can retaliate by killing as many as more than 20 million Japanese people this time.
Meanwhile, supplying weapons and ammunitions to Japan so as to let Asian people kill one another, US defense industries will make a huge profit.
3. SCO's security guarantee to Japan
Under these probable circumstances, China, together with other member states of SCO, can make a proposal to Japan which will save Japan out of a wrong path of military frenzy and help it onto the right direction of peace.
SCO, more specifically President Xi Jinping representing entire member states of SCO, can declare and make a proposal to the US and Japan that SCO can provide security guarantee to Japan in return for the US & Japan’s (1) pledge that Japan will become a neutral state to be a buffer state between SCO & the US and (2) acceptance that the US military will withdraw from Japan.
SCO’s security guarantee to Japan is “the” only and real security for Japan instead of incompetent US military forces.
President Xi Jinping can directly appeal to the people of Japan who are currently feeling apathetic and hopeless without options for peace.
The Japanese people should sincerely take Xi Jinping's words. The Japanese people can newly establish a small vanguard party that is not under control of the US, which would spread SCO's proposal among the Japanese people and persuade the Japanese people to accept it.
The Japanese government and the Japanese people would not trust Russia even if Russia promises that it would not attack Japan because of the past history between Russia and Japan. In 1945, the Soviet Union violated the Japanese–Soviet Non-aggression Pact and attacked the Imperial Japanese Army in Manchuria and invaded Japanese territories of the Kuril Islands which Russia has been occupying up to today.
But, if SCO provides security guarantee to Japan, Russia will be bound by the obligation of SCO. Russia would not attack Japan over China's opposition.
As for China, China has never attacked or invaded Japan ever in her past thousands years of history. It is true that the Yuan dynasty of China attacked Japan in 1274 and 1281. But, the Yuan dynasty was a Mongol-led imperial dynasty of China. Therefore, they were invasions by the Mongol Empire, not by the Han people of China.
As Russia is a member state of SCO, Russia may accept returning to Japan the parts of Kuril Islands claimed by Japan and occupied by Russia if the US & Japan (1) pledge that Japan will become a neutral state to be a buffer state between SCO & the US and (2) accept that the US military will withdraw from Japan. Russia's suggestion on returning the islands would facilitate Japan's acceptance of the SCO's proposal.
At the same time, President Xi Jinping can indicate that China's Belt and Road Initiative will be able to be fully extended to Japan if Japan becomes a neutral state and the US military forces withdraws.
Japan can join China's Belt and Road Initiative in Asia and Africa, cooperating with China in infrastructure construction there.
Hokkaido (Japan's northern island) will prosper, becoming a ship repair services and logistics hub for China’s arctic shipping route.
Japanese businesses should find their future by working with Chinese companies and helping Asian and African countries.
In the future, two buffer states, South Korea and Japan, cooperating with North Korea, can form a nuclear weapon free zone to ensure prevention of a nuclear war.
If US military forces withdraw from South Korea and Japan, Taiwan will give up a hope for secession and accept that peaceful reunification with China is the only choice.
Thank you.
Reference:
(1) "Chinese threat to Japan and Okinawa bases behind F-15 phaseout, expert says", November 14th 2022, Stars and Stripes
(2) "US 'fortifying Australia into a forward operating base' with B-52 bomber deployment", November 4th 2022, The Manila Times
(3) "Former US Navy secretary calls Australia the “tip of the spear” against China", November 29th 2022, World Socialist Web Site
(4) "Secret plans for new port outside Darwin to accommodate visiting US Marines", June 23rd 2019, ABC News
(5) "The Case for Offshore Balancing - A Superior U.S. Grand Strategy" by John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2016 Issue
(6) "Japan ruling bloc to agree on acquiring 'counterstrike capability'", December 2nd 2022, The Mainichi
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
As I mentioned in my previous article, SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) can make a proposal to provide security guarantee to South Korea in return for the US and South Korea’s (1) pledge that South Korea will become a neutral state to be a buffer state between SCO and the US and (2) acceptance that the US military will withdraw from the Korean Peninsula.
Almost every military expert agrees that the US can never overwhelm North Korea militarily. Even if the US military conducts its severest attack against North Korea including nuclear attack, North Korea's mobile nuclear ICBMs hidden deep in tunnels in its mountainous areas will be able to survive and be used to retaliate against the US.
[HNEMP (High Altitude Nuclear Electromagnetic Pulse)]
According to a US Congressional report, North Korea, with its nuclear ICBMs, can launch an EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) attack against the US by detonating nuclear bombs at high altitude over the US. An EMP attack would destroy the US electric grid and electronic equipment. Then, US food production, storage and distribution systems would break down quickly. In one year, up to 90% of the population could perish from starvation, disease and societal collapse.
In addition, there is no way for U.S. Forces in Korea to defend themselves against North Korea's missile attack with chemical and biological warheads.
Given the incapacity of the US military against North Korea, the US has no choice but accept the proposal.
2. US offshore balancing strategy and Japan's beefing up its military
Then, the withdrawal of US military from South Korea would create a momentum of withdrawal of US military from Japan because a major reason of US military forces’ staying in Japan is deterrence against North Korea.
Actually, there is already a symptom of US military forces’ withdrawal from Japan.
The US has already decided to replace a permanent station of F-15 fighters in Kadena Air Force base in Okinawa, Japan with a six-month temporary rotation of F-22 fighters.
[Only 4 direct missile hits on the runway would suffice to shut down US Kadena Air base. After that, each US warplane and facility would be destroyed one by one by China's ballistic and cruise missiles. - “The U.S.-China Military Scorecard”, Rand Corporation, 2015]
According to a news article of Stars and Stripes, Steve Ganyard, a former deputy assistant secretary of state and Marine fighter pilot, said, “You can look at it (removal of the F-15s) as the USAF coming to grips with the reality that nothing on the first island chain, especially not Kadena, will be survivable in a conflict with China.”
“China changes that and puts everything south of Kagoshima (in southern Japan) particularly at risk,” he said. Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, south of Hiroshima, and Yokota Air Base in western Tokyo may also be targeted, he said, “if things get really tough.” [1]
Considering that Stars and Stripes is an official US military newspaper, the above comment is supposed to reflect the US government’s position to some extent.
The Japanese main islands are well within the range of China’s thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles. Thus, in case of China-US military conflict, US bases in Japan as well as US war planes, war ships, artilleries and other weapons will be targeted and destroyed completely within weeks or even days.
US military forces in Japan can't defend themselves against China’s saturated missile attack still less defend Japan. The US doesn’t have military capacity to defend Japan.
Therefore, from a purely military viewpoint, it is reasonable that US military forces would withdraw from Japan. The US would rather move their military forces to Guam and Australia and consolidate US bases there.
US military may share Australian air force and naval bases.
The United States is reportedly planning to build facilities to deploy up to six nuclear-capable B-52 bombers in northern Australia at RAAF Tindal Air Base, south of the city of Darwin. [2]
The Australian government is currently building a dry dock facility in Henderson, near Perth, which will be able to serve large naval vessels including nuclear submarines. The RAN Henderson naval base can be a home base for several US Navy Virginia-class submarines. [3]
There was a report that the Australian government was planning a new commercial port in the Glyde Point area just outside Darwin, which could accommodate US marines and large amphibious warships such as the USS Wasp. [4]
However, moving US military forces from Japan to Guam and Australia will not decrease the possibility of military conflict in the East Asia. Rather, it will increase the possibility of military conflict because moving US military forces from Japan to Guam and Australia does suitably conform to the US Offshore Balancing strategy. [5]
The US doesn’t want to fight directly with China. The US rather would like its regional allies to fight against China. More specifically, the US wants Japan to fight a proxy war against China for the US just like Ukraine is fighting a proxy war against Russia for the US.
Facing US military forces’ gradual withdrawal from Japan, the Japanese conservative government will advocate to beef up Japan’s military forces.
Japan's ruling parties, LDP and Komeito-party, have agreed that Japan should procure "offensive weapons" to attack enemy bases, violating the constitution. The Japanese conservative government is planning to double its defense budget. [6]
The Japanese conservative government is planning to procure hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US, which would be equipped with dirty bombs.
The Japanese conservative government will try to revise the Japan’s pacifist constitution so that Japan would be able to arm itself with more offensive weapons including even having or sharing nuclear weapons.
Being under control of the US government implicitly, Japanese opposition parties would also support Japan's militarization.
Then, the US military and intelligence organizations may manipulate a certain “incident” which would make the relations between China and Japan become hostile and belligerent such as a skirmish or clash of China and Japan’s warships nearby Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.
When a conflict breaks out between China and Japan, the US would keep staying out of the conflict, taking a position that a territorial dispute should be solved between parties concerned and that the US direct fighting with China could lead to a nuclear war.
Meanwhile, Japanese media controlled by the US would incite the Japanese people to escalate the conflict just like the Ukraine people are incited to fight to the death.
The ultimate goal of the US is to let China and Japan wage a nuclear war.
The Japanese people underestimate the wrath of China. In case of Japan's attack against China, China will retaliate by attacking Japan with all her might. China will destroy all Japanese military bases in Japan.
If Japan attacks China's cities with its Tomahawk cruise missiles with dirty bombs, China will retaliate by attacking Japan's cities with tactical nuclear weapons.
Remember, during World War II, Imperial Japanese Army killed as many as more than 10 million Chinese people. China can retaliate by killing as many as more than 20 million Japanese people this time.
Meanwhile, supplying weapons and ammunitions to Japan so as to let Asian people kill one another, US defense industries will make a huge profit.
3. SCO's security guarantee to Japan
Under these probable circumstances, China, together with other member states of SCO, can make a proposal to Japan which will save Japan out of a wrong path of military frenzy and help it onto the right direction of peace.
SCO, more specifically President Xi Jinping representing entire member states of SCO, can declare and make a proposal to the US and Japan that SCO can provide security guarantee to Japan in return for the US & Japan’s (1) pledge that Japan will become a neutral state to be a buffer state between SCO & the US and (2) acceptance that the US military will withdraw from Japan.
SCO’s security guarantee to Japan is “the” only and real security for Japan instead of incompetent US military forces.
President Xi Jinping can directly appeal to the people of Japan who are currently feeling apathetic and hopeless without options for peace.
The Japanese people should sincerely take Xi Jinping's words. The Japanese people can newly establish a small vanguard party that is not under control of the US, which would spread SCO's proposal among the Japanese people and persuade the Japanese people to accept it.
The Japanese government and the Japanese people would not trust Russia even if Russia promises that it would not attack Japan because of the past history between Russia and Japan. In 1945, the Soviet Union violated the Japanese–Soviet Non-aggression Pact and attacked the Imperial Japanese Army in Manchuria and invaded Japanese territories of the Kuril Islands which Russia has been occupying up to today.
But, if SCO provides security guarantee to Japan, Russia will be bound by the obligation of SCO. Russia would not attack Japan over China's opposition.
As for China, China has never attacked or invaded Japan ever in her past thousands years of history. It is true that the Yuan dynasty of China attacked Japan in 1274 and 1281. But, the Yuan dynasty was a Mongol-led imperial dynasty of China. Therefore, they were invasions by the Mongol Empire, not by the Han people of China.
As Russia is a member state of SCO, Russia may accept returning to Japan the parts of Kuril Islands claimed by Japan and occupied by Russia if the US & Japan (1) pledge that Japan will become a neutral state to be a buffer state between SCO & the US and (2) accept that the US military will withdraw from Japan. Russia's suggestion on returning the islands would facilitate Japan's acceptance of the SCO's proposal.
At the same time, President Xi Jinping can indicate that China's Belt and Road Initiative will be able to be fully extended to Japan if Japan becomes a neutral state and the US military forces withdraws.
Japan can join China's Belt and Road Initiative in Asia and Africa, cooperating with China in infrastructure construction there.
Hokkaido (Japan's northern island) will prosper, becoming a ship repair services and logistics hub for China’s arctic shipping route.
Japanese businesses should find their future by working with Chinese companies and helping Asian and African countries.
In the future, two buffer states, South Korea and Japan, cooperating with North Korea, can form a nuclear weapon free zone to ensure prevention of a nuclear war.
If US military forces withdraw from South Korea and Japan, Taiwan will give up a hope for secession and accept that peaceful reunification with China is the only choice.
Thank you.
Reference:
(1) "Chinese threat to Japan and Okinawa bases behind F-15 phaseout, expert says", November 14th 2022, Stars and Stripes
(2) "US 'fortifying Australia into a forward operating base' with B-52 bomber deployment", November 4th 2022, The Manila Times
(3) "Former US Navy secretary calls Australia the “tip of the spear” against China", November 29th 2022, World Socialist Web Site
(4) "Secret plans for new port outside Darwin to accommodate visiting US Marines", June 23rd 2019, ABC News
(5) "The Case for Offshore Balancing - A Superior U.S. Grand Strategy" by John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2016 Issue
(6) "Japan ruling bloc to agree on acquiring 'counterstrike capability'", December 2nd 2022, The Mainichi
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.