The war between Ukraine and Russia has turned into a war between NATO and Russia as NATO countries especially the US keeps providing massive weapon supply to Ukraine.
However, the US weapon supply to Ukraine may shrink after the US midterm election because Trumpian Republicans are expected to win both the House and the Senate and block major flow of weapon supply to Ukraine.
Also, US arsenal inventory is out of stock. The US doesn't have Javelin or HIMARS to send to Ukraine anymore. The latest US military support for Ukraine is refurbishing its Soviet-era tanks. [1]
On the other hand, with added mobilized soldiers, Russian Army's winter offensive can be swift and decisive. Russia having secured Russian-speaking regions, the rest of Ukraine is an absolute enemy of Russia. Thus, Russia doesn't care civilian casualties anymore.
Since the US and UK have a total control over the Kiev puppet government and would not allow Ukraine to make a peace deal with Russia, Russia needs to overwhelm Ukraine Army, advance to Kiev and make Zelensky exiled. Then, Russia can conclude a peace deal with its set-up pro-Russian government, ending the war.
According to news reports, Iran has supplied attack drones, and DPRK is supplying munitions to Russia. In order to conquer Kiev, Russia may need more weapons. [2][3]
Under such circumstances, SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) member states of Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kirgizstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) may provide weapons, munitions and equipment to Russia.
Furthermore, China can make a so-called lend-lease arrangement with Central Asian countries under which China lends huge amount of weapons, munitions and equipment to Central Asian countries in the name of counter-terrorism because there was a coup attempt in Kazakhstan in January. Then, Central Asian countries can supply superfluous Russian-made weapons, munitions and equipment to Russia that they already had.
Making such an arrangement, China can maintain neutrality with regard to the Ukraine War, avoiding being a target of the West's economic sanctions while indirectly supplying weapons, munitions and equipment to Russia.
It is likely that, even if Russia accomplishes seizing Kiev militarily and setting up a pro-Russian government, the majority of Ukraine people would still have anti-Russian sentiment. So, the pro-Russian Ukraine government would immediately need to ask China and India to help the reconstruction of Ukraine. BRICS plus too may assist the reconstruction.
Following the disarmament of Ukraine Army, Russian Army would need to stay in Ukraine until the situation becomes calm. Belarus and Central Asian SCO member states may provide security forces to maintain the peace and order of Ukraine.
After Russia overwhelms Ukraine Army, seizes Kiev, and sets up a pro-Russian government to end the war, SCO may expand westward to deter NATO's eastward expansion. SCO can expand westward to include Hungary, Serbia, Croatia and Bulgaria, which will counter and block NATO's eastward expansion.
Thereafter, Russia can use and extend the existing TurkStream pipeline to supply oil and gas to Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Hungary via Turkey. Also, China can extend Belt and Road Initiative to Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Hungary to construct infrastructures including 5G networks and boost trade with these countries.
Having access to cheap Russian oil and gas and China's growing consumer market and most advanced 5G technologies, Southeastern European countries will rapidly grow economically and become much more competitive and prosperous than Western Europe which has to import very expensive liquified gas from the Middle East. Western Europe will become stagnated and decline forever unless it accepts the multipolar world is the reality.
Thank you.
Reference:
(1) "Pentagon will pay to upgrade dozens of Soviet-era tanks for Ukraine", November 4th 2022, Politico
(2) "Iran acknowledges drone shipments to Russia before Ukraine war", November 5th 2022, Reuters
(3) "White House says North Korea supplying Russia with artillery shells", November 3rd 2022, Reuters
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
However, the US weapon supply to Ukraine may shrink after the US midterm election because Trumpian Republicans are expected to win both the House and the Senate and block major flow of weapon supply to Ukraine.
Also, US arsenal inventory is out of stock. The US doesn't have Javelin or HIMARS to send to Ukraine anymore. The latest US military support for Ukraine is refurbishing its Soviet-era tanks. [1]
On the other hand, with added mobilized soldiers, Russian Army's winter offensive can be swift and decisive. Russia having secured Russian-speaking regions, the rest of Ukraine is an absolute enemy of Russia. Thus, Russia doesn't care civilian casualties anymore.
Since the US and UK have a total control over the Kiev puppet government and would not allow Ukraine to make a peace deal with Russia, Russia needs to overwhelm Ukraine Army, advance to Kiev and make Zelensky exiled. Then, Russia can conclude a peace deal with its set-up pro-Russian government, ending the war.
According to news reports, Iran has supplied attack drones, and DPRK is supplying munitions to Russia. In order to conquer Kiev, Russia may need more weapons. [2][3]
Under such circumstances, SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) member states of Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kirgizstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) may provide weapons, munitions and equipment to Russia.
Furthermore, China can make a so-called lend-lease arrangement with Central Asian countries under which China lends huge amount of weapons, munitions and equipment to Central Asian countries in the name of counter-terrorism because there was a coup attempt in Kazakhstan in January. Then, Central Asian countries can supply superfluous Russian-made weapons, munitions and equipment to Russia that they already had.
Making such an arrangement, China can maintain neutrality with regard to the Ukraine War, avoiding being a target of the West's economic sanctions while indirectly supplying weapons, munitions and equipment to Russia.
It is likely that, even if Russia accomplishes seizing Kiev militarily and setting up a pro-Russian government, the majority of Ukraine people would still have anti-Russian sentiment. So, the pro-Russian Ukraine government would immediately need to ask China and India to help the reconstruction of Ukraine. BRICS plus too may assist the reconstruction.
Following the disarmament of Ukraine Army, Russian Army would need to stay in Ukraine until the situation becomes calm. Belarus and Central Asian SCO member states may provide security forces to maintain the peace and order of Ukraine.
After Russia overwhelms Ukraine Army, seizes Kiev, and sets up a pro-Russian government to end the war, SCO may expand westward to deter NATO's eastward expansion. SCO can expand westward to include Hungary, Serbia, Croatia and Bulgaria, which will counter and block NATO's eastward expansion.
Thereafter, Russia can use and extend the existing TurkStream pipeline to supply oil and gas to Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Hungary via Turkey. Also, China can extend Belt and Road Initiative to Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Hungary to construct infrastructures including 5G networks and boost trade with these countries.
Having access to cheap Russian oil and gas and China's growing consumer market and most advanced 5G technologies, Southeastern European countries will rapidly grow economically and become much more competitive and prosperous than Western Europe which has to import very expensive liquified gas from the Middle East. Western Europe will become stagnated and decline forever unless it accepts the multipolar world is the reality.
Thank you.
Reference:
(1) "Pentagon will pay to upgrade dozens of Soviet-era tanks for Ukraine", November 4th 2022, Politico
(2) "Iran acknowledges drone shipments to Russia before Ukraine war", November 5th 2022, Reuters
(3) "White House says North Korea supplying Russia with artillery shells", November 3rd 2022, Reuters
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.