So far, there have been made many Taiwan crisis simulations. However, they have been made only from military view points regarding which side would win, China or the US.
Instead, simulations should be made on how enormous civilian casualties could be if Taiwan crisis should happen and how devastating economic damages would be for countries in the regions and the world, so that the world people would realize that a peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan is "the" only option.
Also, in order to mitigate West’s fear and Sinophobia on China's rise and economic power, China can magnanimously propose to the West on setting up bilateral economic coordination talks by which China and the US, EU and Japan each coordinate harmonious supplemental win-win business development.
1. China is striving for peaceful unification with Taiwan while the US is trying to provoke China into a war
At the opening ceremony of China's 20th National Congress, Chinese President Xi Jinping said with regard to Taiwan, "We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort."
Peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan is what China is striving to achieve for decades. For that purpose, China is encouraging economic and business cooperation between China and Taiwan. China is supporting human communication and cultural exchange between China and Taiwan.
However, the US is trying to prevent reunification of China and Taiwan. Members of the US Congress including House Chairperson Nancy Pelosi have been visiting Taiwan. Former high ranking officials including former Defense Secretary Mark Esper visited Taiwan, who said, "One China policy has outlived its usefulness." The US is treating Taiwan more and more as if Taiwan were an independent country.
Taiwan is a part of China. Thus, US intervention in Taiwan is interference in China's internal affair and therefore illegal.
The reason why the US is interfering Taiwan affair is that, by making Taiwan declare independence, the US wants to provoke China into a prolonged quagmire of military conflict so as to destabilize China's regime and ultimately topple the Communist government.
China's economic expansion has been more rapid than anyone's expectation. Now, with huge R & D investment and superior technological advantage, China will dominate 6G/5G race against the US, EU and Japan, which means that China will dominate AI applied services, self-driving cars, IoT and Big Data. It means that China will dominate financial businesses, manufacturing businesses and service businesses in the near future.
The US has finally noticed that, if the US keeps allowing China's rise, it would be overwhelmed by China before long and would never be able to recover its dominance forever.
Therefore, it is quite likely that the US would let Taiwan declare independence so as to provoke China into a forceful reunification of Taiwan and a military conflict.
In that event, Japan would be used as a proxy to fight against China while the US would stay back and only provide military intelligence and military directions to Japan. The US would incite EU, Japan, Australia, Canada and so on to impose the severest economic sanctions against China.
Actually, that is exactly what the US is currently doing in Ukraine war. The US provoked Russia by Ukraine's possibility of joining NATO and get Russia into a military conflict with Ukraine. The US stays back and provide only weapons and military intelligence to Ukraine. The US, together with EU, Japan, Australia, Canada and so on, has imposed sanctions against Russia. Ukraine is to Russia what Japan would be to China.
2. Simulations on civilian casualties and economic damages in case of Taiwan crisis
European people did not predict on casualties and economic damages to be inflicted by Ukraine war. Now, it is estimated that escalating Ukraine war already caused more than fifteen thousands of Ukraine civilian casualties. Meanwhile, European people are suffering from terrible inflation. Germany even stopped import of Russian gas without finding alternative gas suppliers. As a result, German people are suffering from sky-rocketing gas prices and the freezing cold winter. Halting export of Ukraine grain resulted in food crisis in developing countries.
In contrast, unlike Europe, Asia can have wisdom and courage to dare to predict on casualties and economic damages to be inflicted by Taiwan crisis.
Conscientious and peace-loving professors and researchers of universities and think-tanks in China, Japan, US, South Korea, Taiwan and ASEAN can work together to publish a research paper on enormous civilian casualties and devastating economic damages to be inflicted if Taiwan military crisis happens so that peaceful China-Taiwan reunification is facilitated.
In preparing the research paper, AI and Big Data can be applied to calculate detailed and precise numbers of predicted civilian casualties and economic damages to be inflicted.
Currently, the Japanese people underestimate civilian casualties and economic damages on Japan which are to be inflicted if Taiwan crisis happens.
The Japanese people mistakenly expect that, even if Taiwan crisis happens, the battle field would be limited to only Ryukyu Islands and not be expanded to the mainland Japan. They are wrong. In case of China-US military conflict, China will launch ballistic missiles toward not only US bases in Okinawa but US bases in the mainland Japan as well because US warplanes and warships are to be dispatched from US bases in the mainland Japan to join the battle.
Japan's collateral civilian casualties will be enormous. Japan's economic damages will be devastating.
Likewise, the Philippines people underestimate civilian casualties and economic damages on Philippines in case of China-US military conflict. If the US uses US bases in Philippines, China will launch ballistic missiles toward US bases in Philippines. Philippines' collateral civilian casualties will be enormous. Philippines' economic damages will be devastating.
Also, if US warplanes deployed in South Korea join the battle, China will launch ballistic missiles toward US bases in South Korea too. South Korea's collateral civilian casualties will be enormous. South Korea's economic damages will be devastating.
And, if China-US military conflict escalates to a tactical nuclear war, civilian casualties and economic damages in the region could rise exponentially and become more than ten to one hundred times larger.
Furthermore, economic damages will not be limited to the region. As Chinese economy is integrated to the world, devastating economic damages will be inflicted in all the nations across the world.
These contingencies must be avoided by all means.
Once the research paper is completed, members of the Japanese Parliament will be able to use the research paper to ask specific questions to the Japanese government, thereby widely spreading information among the Japanese people on potential enormous casualties and devastating economic damages.
Currently, deliberations on Taiwan crisis at the Japanese Parliament are only vague ambiguous ones. The concrete numbers of enormous casualties and devastating economic damages will change the debate.
At the same time, a lot of symposium can be held, using the research paper, on potential enormous casualties and devastating economic damages.
University students and high school students can organize reading groups to use the research paper to learn potential enormous casualties and devastating economic damages.
Overseas Chinese in Japan can use the research paper to discuss with their Japanese business counterparts on potential enormous casualties and devastating economic damages.
Eventually, after these nation-wide efforts, the majority of the Japanese people will come to oppose Japan's joining a military intervention to Taiwan crisis. Instead, the Japanese people will support a peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan because that's the only way to avoid their civilian casualties and economic damages.
Likewise, the research paper can be used in South Korea, Philippines and other ASEAN countries, Asian and African countries, Pacific island countries, South American countries, European countries and even Taiwan and the US.
CGTN and Xinhua can report and broadcast to the world audience about potential enormous casualties and devastating economic damages. CGTN and Xinhua can overwhelm US and EU's war propaganda, based upon accurate prediction of civilian casualties and economic damages detailed in the research paper.
The sheer numbers of predicted enormous casualties and devastating economic damages will strengthen and multiply voices calling for avoiding Taiwan crisis in nations across the world.
The sheer numbers of predicted enormous casualties and devastating economic damages will mobilize the world people to support a peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan.
3. China can coordinate co-prosperity with the US, EU and Japan
The US and EU's radical reactions against China stem from their fear toward China. They are appalled by China's rapid economic and technological rise and horrified with a nightmare that they would be surpassed, overwhelmed and left behind in despair and poverty.
In order to mitigate West’s fear and Sinophobia, China can magnanimously propose to the West on setting up bilateral economic coordination talks by which China and the US, EU and Japan each coordinate harmonious supplemental win-win business development.
China can start with setting up China-Japan Industrial Coordination Round Table and inviting Japan to join. In the past, during the rapid Japan's economic growth after World War 2, the Japanese government implemented industrial policies under which coordinated competition and guaranteed prosperity of Japanese companies in each industrial sector were realized. Compared to US and EU companies, Japanese companies are accustomed to industrial policies. Through China-Japan Industrial Coordination Round Table, China can set up an example for the US and EU as to how to coordinate harmonious supplemental win-win economic growth between China and Western countries. [1]
At China-Japan Industrial Coordination Round Table, China can lecture to Japanese government officials, business leaders and economic experts on China's 5 year plan and how China is planning to develop her industries, cooperating with Asian and African countries, in the coming 5 years. Through discussions and exchange of information, China's industrial sectors and Japanese industrial sectors will find how to coordinate and supplement each other between China and Japan, which will then be summarized into a coordination guideline that will enable each Chinese and Japanese company to calculate and formulate a detailed business plan.
During the discussions, China can provide a concrete realistic picture of potential fruits of coordination, showing predicted numbers on sales and profits meticulously calculated with applying AI and Big Data, which Japan, the US and EU cannot do. China can provide predicted numbers of employment to be created too.
The guideline doesn't include any obligation to China and Japan. Instead, it only provides a loose vision on the possibility and potential as to how China and Japan can coordinate and grow together harmoniously. The guideline functions to encourage coordination and cooperation between China and Japan.
After demonstrating that China-Japan Industrial Coordination Round Table works well, China can set up China-US Industrial Coordination Round Table and China-EU Industrial Coordination Round Table.
Given the guidelines, US and EU will not have to fear China's economic juggernaut anymore. After all, "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself," as indicated by FDR.
Belt and Road Initiative is not imperialism. China is not trying to make Asian and African countries into her exclusive colonies. Asian and African countries are open for investment of US, EU and other western countries.
Human beings do not have to fear anymore. The world can coordinate and cooperate to flourish and prosper toward the shared future of the mankind.
Thank you.
Reference:
(1) " "China and japan can be an engine for Asian development," said a president of the China-Japan Friendship association", October 20th 2022, the Sankei News
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
Instead, simulations should be made on how enormous civilian casualties could be if Taiwan crisis should happen and how devastating economic damages would be for countries in the regions and the world, so that the world people would realize that a peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan is "the" only option.
Also, in order to mitigate West’s fear and Sinophobia on China's rise and economic power, China can magnanimously propose to the West on setting up bilateral economic coordination talks by which China and the US, EU and Japan each coordinate harmonious supplemental win-win business development.
1. China is striving for peaceful unification with Taiwan while the US is trying to provoke China into a war
At the opening ceremony of China's 20th National Congress, Chinese President Xi Jinping said with regard to Taiwan, "We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort."
Peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan is what China is striving to achieve for decades. For that purpose, China is encouraging economic and business cooperation between China and Taiwan. China is supporting human communication and cultural exchange between China and Taiwan.
However, the US is trying to prevent reunification of China and Taiwan. Members of the US Congress including House Chairperson Nancy Pelosi have been visiting Taiwan. Former high ranking officials including former Defense Secretary Mark Esper visited Taiwan, who said, "One China policy has outlived its usefulness." The US is treating Taiwan more and more as if Taiwan were an independent country.
Taiwan is a part of China. Thus, US intervention in Taiwan is interference in China's internal affair and therefore illegal.
The reason why the US is interfering Taiwan affair is that, by making Taiwan declare independence, the US wants to provoke China into a prolonged quagmire of military conflict so as to destabilize China's regime and ultimately topple the Communist government.
China's economic expansion has been more rapid than anyone's expectation. Now, with huge R & D investment and superior technological advantage, China will dominate 6G/5G race against the US, EU and Japan, which means that China will dominate AI applied services, self-driving cars, IoT and Big Data. It means that China will dominate financial businesses, manufacturing businesses and service businesses in the near future.
The US has finally noticed that, if the US keeps allowing China's rise, it would be overwhelmed by China before long and would never be able to recover its dominance forever.
Therefore, it is quite likely that the US would let Taiwan declare independence so as to provoke China into a forceful reunification of Taiwan and a military conflict.
In that event, Japan would be used as a proxy to fight against China while the US would stay back and only provide military intelligence and military directions to Japan. The US would incite EU, Japan, Australia, Canada and so on to impose the severest economic sanctions against China.
Actually, that is exactly what the US is currently doing in Ukraine war. The US provoked Russia by Ukraine's possibility of joining NATO and get Russia into a military conflict with Ukraine. The US stays back and provide only weapons and military intelligence to Ukraine. The US, together with EU, Japan, Australia, Canada and so on, has imposed sanctions against Russia. Ukraine is to Russia what Japan would be to China.
2. Simulations on civilian casualties and economic damages in case of Taiwan crisis
European people did not predict on casualties and economic damages to be inflicted by Ukraine war. Now, it is estimated that escalating Ukraine war already caused more than fifteen thousands of Ukraine civilian casualties. Meanwhile, European people are suffering from terrible inflation. Germany even stopped import of Russian gas without finding alternative gas suppliers. As a result, German people are suffering from sky-rocketing gas prices and the freezing cold winter. Halting export of Ukraine grain resulted in food crisis in developing countries.
In contrast, unlike Europe, Asia can have wisdom and courage to dare to predict on casualties and economic damages to be inflicted by Taiwan crisis.
Conscientious and peace-loving professors and researchers of universities and think-tanks in China, Japan, US, South Korea, Taiwan and ASEAN can work together to publish a research paper on enormous civilian casualties and devastating economic damages to be inflicted if Taiwan military crisis happens so that peaceful China-Taiwan reunification is facilitated.
In preparing the research paper, AI and Big Data can be applied to calculate detailed and precise numbers of predicted civilian casualties and economic damages to be inflicted.
Currently, the Japanese people underestimate civilian casualties and economic damages on Japan which are to be inflicted if Taiwan crisis happens.
The Japanese people mistakenly expect that, even if Taiwan crisis happens, the battle field would be limited to only Ryukyu Islands and not be expanded to the mainland Japan. They are wrong. In case of China-US military conflict, China will launch ballistic missiles toward not only US bases in Okinawa but US bases in the mainland Japan as well because US warplanes and warships are to be dispatched from US bases in the mainland Japan to join the battle.
Japan's collateral civilian casualties will be enormous. Japan's economic damages will be devastating.
Likewise, the Philippines people underestimate civilian casualties and economic damages on Philippines in case of China-US military conflict. If the US uses US bases in Philippines, China will launch ballistic missiles toward US bases in Philippines. Philippines' collateral civilian casualties will be enormous. Philippines' economic damages will be devastating.
Also, if US warplanes deployed in South Korea join the battle, China will launch ballistic missiles toward US bases in South Korea too. South Korea's collateral civilian casualties will be enormous. South Korea's economic damages will be devastating.
And, if China-US military conflict escalates to a tactical nuclear war, civilian casualties and economic damages in the region could rise exponentially and become more than ten to one hundred times larger.
Furthermore, economic damages will not be limited to the region. As Chinese economy is integrated to the world, devastating economic damages will be inflicted in all the nations across the world.
These contingencies must be avoided by all means.
Once the research paper is completed, members of the Japanese Parliament will be able to use the research paper to ask specific questions to the Japanese government, thereby widely spreading information among the Japanese people on potential enormous casualties and devastating economic damages.
Currently, deliberations on Taiwan crisis at the Japanese Parliament are only vague ambiguous ones. The concrete numbers of enormous casualties and devastating economic damages will change the debate.
At the same time, a lot of symposium can be held, using the research paper, on potential enormous casualties and devastating economic damages.
University students and high school students can organize reading groups to use the research paper to learn potential enormous casualties and devastating economic damages.
Overseas Chinese in Japan can use the research paper to discuss with their Japanese business counterparts on potential enormous casualties and devastating economic damages.
Eventually, after these nation-wide efforts, the majority of the Japanese people will come to oppose Japan's joining a military intervention to Taiwan crisis. Instead, the Japanese people will support a peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan because that's the only way to avoid their civilian casualties and economic damages.
Likewise, the research paper can be used in South Korea, Philippines and other ASEAN countries, Asian and African countries, Pacific island countries, South American countries, European countries and even Taiwan and the US.
CGTN and Xinhua can report and broadcast to the world audience about potential enormous casualties and devastating economic damages. CGTN and Xinhua can overwhelm US and EU's war propaganda, based upon accurate prediction of civilian casualties and economic damages detailed in the research paper.
The sheer numbers of predicted enormous casualties and devastating economic damages will strengthen and multiply voices calling for avoiding Taiwan crisis in nations across the world.
The sheer numbers of predicted enormous casualties and devastating economic damages will mobilize the world people to support a peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan.
3. China can coordinate co-prosperity with the US, EU and Japan
The US and EU's radical reactions against China stem from their fear toward China. They are appalled by China's rapid economic and technological rise and horrified with a nightmare that they would be surpassed, overwhelmed and left behind in despair and poverty.
In order to mitigate West’s fear and Sinophobia, China can magnanimously propose to the West on setting up bilateral economic coordination talks by which China and the US, EU and Japan each coordinate harmonious supplemental win-win business development.
China can start with setting up China-Japan Industrial Coordination Round Table and inviting Japan to join. In the past, during the rapid Japan's economic growth after World War 2, the Japanese government implemented industrial policies under which coordinated competition and guaranteed prosperity of Japanese companies in each industrial sector were realized. Compared to US and EU companies, Japanese companies are accustomed to industrial policies. Through China-Japan Industrial Coordination Round Table, China can set up an example for the US and EU as to how to coordinate harmonious supplemental win-win economic growth between China and Western countries. [1]
At China-Japan Industrial Coordination Round Table, China can lecture to Japanese government officials, business leaders and economic experts on China's 5 year plan and how China is planning to develop her industries, cooperating with Asian and African countries, in the coming 5 years. Through discussions and exchange of information, China's industrial sectors and Japanese industrial sectors will find how to coordinate and supplement each other between China and Japan, which will then be summarized into a coordination guideline that will enable each Chinese and Japanese company to calculate and formulate a detailed business plan.
During the discussions, China can provide a concrete realistic picture of potential fruits of coordination, showing predicted numbers on sales and profits meticulously calculated with applying AI and Big Data, which Japan, the US and EU cannot do. China can provide predicted numbers of employment to be created too.
The guideline doesn't include any obligation to China and Japan. Instead, it only provides a loose vision on the possibility and potential as to how China and Japan can coordinate and grow together harmoniously. The guideline functions to encourage coordination and cooperation between China and Japan.
After demonstrating that China-Japan Industrial Coordination Round Table works well, China can set up China-US Industrial Coordination Round Table and China-EU Industrial Coordination Round Table.
Given the guidelines, US and EU will not have to fear China's economic juggernaut anymore. After all, "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself," as indicated by FDR.
Belt and Road Initiative is not imperialism. China is not trying to make Asian and African countries into her exclusive colonies. Asian and African countries are open for investment of US, EU and other western countries.
Human beings do not have to fear anymore. The world can coordinate and cooperate to flourish and prosper toward the shared future of the mankind.
Thank you.
Reference:
(1) " "China and japan can be an engine for Asian development," said a president of the China-Japan Friendship association", October 20th 2022, the Sankei News
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.