According to news articles, Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, is planning to visit Taiwan and meet with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen in August.
The speaker is the leader of the House's majority party and, therefore, the political and parliamentary leader of the House of Representatives.
The US legislature (the US Congress) has the power of making laws which provide authorities as to what the US President can do.
The US legislature (the US Congress) has the power of determining the US budget which regulates how much money the US President can spend.
Presidential Succession Act of 1947 provides that the speaker is second in the United States presidential line of succession after the vice president, coming above President pro tempore of the Senate and Secretary of State. In other words, the speaker is politically No.3 in the US.
If it is carried out, Pelosi's visit to Taiwan would encourage and facilitate Taiwan's separatists' movement.
The visit could be even interpreted as de facto US formal recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign and independent country.
Thus, China is strongly opposing Pelosi's visit to Taiwan with the most powerful words because Taiwan is China's renegade province and should be reunified with China. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan will be a clear violation of the one-China principle and an intervention in China’s internal affair.
China's foreign ministry have clearly and strongly warned, "If the US side insists on making the visit, the Chinese side will take firm & strong measures. The US must assume full responsibility for any severe consequence arising thereof."
China means what it says. Pelosi’s plane could be intercepted by PLA Air Force.
It is likely that a no-fly zone would be set up over Taiwan by China. An entering plane will be shot down no matter who is onboard.
As for the US side, a dozen of the US Air Force’s F-22 Raptors, four F-35 stealth jets, and 13 heavyweight F-15 jets conducted an exercise over the Sea of Japan, the Pacific Ocean, and the East China Sea in late July.
20 Japanese F-15 and F-2 fighters joined the exercise.
Also, USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier and its strike group have entered the South China Sea.
Under these circumstances, some F-22s and F-35s may escort Pelosi's plane flying to Taiwan in coming August.
In that case, China will counter by mobilizing hundreds of warplanes.
China's warplanes would send a strong warning communication to Pelosi's plane, ordering not to enter the no-fly zone. They would fire warning flares and make warning machine-gun shooting.
If Pelosi's plane doesn't change its course and F-22s and F-35s should dare to let Pelosi's plane to land Taiwan, there could be a dogfight between US warplanes and China's warplanes over the East China Sea, exchanging air-to-air missiles.
A tension between China and the US would become as high as or even higher than that of Cuban crisis of 1962.
Also, China could launch ballistic missiles to make warning shots against a US carrier attack group.
Currently, President Biden is expressing a concern on Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. He is saying that Pelosi should call off her visit to Taiwan.
If Pelosi doesn't listen to Biden's advice and carry out her visit to Taiwan, and in case Pelosi's plane should be shot down whether accidentally or intentionally, it could trigger World War 3.
This time, Pelosi may accept Biden's advice and decline from visiting Taiwan.
However, in the US midterm election of November, Republicans may gain a large number of seats and become the majority party of the House. Then, Republican speaker of the House would try to visit Taiwan whatever President Biden would say.
In order to deter and foil the US's intervention to China's internal affair, China can solidify its relations with Russia and BRICS plus.
At the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) foreign ministers' meeting of late July, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov asserted Russia supported 'one China' policy on Taiwan.
If Russia supports China militarily in case of Taiwan crisis, Sino-Russian alliance will overwhelm the US and become invincible and victorious.
Also, BRICS plus can make a declaration that the US's intervention to China's internal affair is illegal and that China and Taiwan should reunify peacefully.
ASEAN will suffer economically very much if there is a military conflict over Taiwan between China and the US. So, ASEAN can declare that the US's intervention to China's internal affair is illegal and that China and Taiwan should reunify peacefully.
Japan will be a battlefield if China and the US have a military conflict over Taiwan. So, Japan can declare that the US's intervention to China's internal affair is illegal and that China and Taiwan should reunify peacefully.
Japanese warplanes should not join the escort of Pelosi's plane.
Also, China may retaliate by stopping the purchase of US treasury bonds, which would make the US government shut down.
China may confiscate assets of some of US companies operating in China.
China may repel Tesla out of China because of certain violations of China’s domestic regulations, which would make Tesla go bankrupted.
The US wants to let China shoot first. There are many ways for China to retaliate and discipline the US, short of military measures.
Thank you.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
The speaker is the leader of the House's majority party and, therefore, the political and parliamentary leader of the House of Representatives.
The US legislature (the US Congress) has the power of making laws which provide authorities as to what the US President can do.
The US legislature (the US Congress) has the power of determining the US budget which regulates how much money the US President can spend.
Presidential Succession Act of 1947 provides that the speaker is second in the United States presidential line of succession after the vice president, coming above President pro tempore of the Senate and Secretary of State. In other words, the speaker is politically No.3 in the US.
If it is carried out, Pelosi's visit to Taiwan would encourage and facilitate Taiwan's separatists' movement.
The visit could be even interpreted as de facto US formal recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign and independent country.
Thus, China is strongly opposing Pelosi's visit to Taiwan with the most powerful words because Taiwan is China's renegade province and should be reunified with China. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan will be a clear violation of the one-China principle and an intervention in China’s internal affair.
China's foreign ministry have clearly and strongly warned, "If the US side insists on making the visit, the Chinese side will take firm & strong measures. The US must assume full responsibility for any severe consequence arising thereof."
China means what it says. Pelosi’s plane could be intercepted by PLA Air Force.
It is likely that a no-fly zone would be set up over Taiwan by China. An entering plane will be shot down no matter who is onboard.
As for the US side, a dozen of the US Air Force’s F-22 Raptors, four F-35 stealth jets, and 13 heavyweight F-15 jets conducted an exercise over the Sea of Japan, the Pacific Ocean, and the East China Sea in late July.
20 Japanese F-15 and F-2 fighters joined the exercise.
Also, USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier and its strike group have entered the South China Sea.
Under these circumstances, some F-22s and F-35s may escort Pelosi's plane flying to Taiwan in coming August.
In that case, China will counter by mobilizing hundreds of warplanes.
China's warplanes would send a strong warning communication to Pelosi's plane, ordering not to enter the no-fly zone. They would fire warning flares and make warning machine-gun shooting.
If Pelosi's plane doesn't change its course and F-22s and F-35s should dare to let Pelosi's plane to land Taiwan, there could be a dogfight between US warplanes and China's warplanes over the East China Sea, exchanging air-to-air missiles.
A tension between China and the US would become as high as or even higher than that of Cuban crisis of 1962.
Also, China could launch ballistic missiles to make warning shots against a US carrier attack group.
Currently, President Biden is expressing a concern on Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. He is saying that Pelosi should call off her visit to Taiwan.
If Pelosi doesn't listen to Biden's advice and carry out her visit to Taiwan, and in case Pelosi's plane should be shot down whether accidentally or intentionally, it could trigger World War 3.
This time, Pelosi may accept Biden's advice and decline from visiting Taiwan.
However, in the US midterm election of November, Republicans may gain a large number of seats and become the majority party of the House. Then, Republican speaker of the House would try to visit Taiwan whatever President Biden would say.
In order to deter and foil the US's intervention to China's internal affair, China can solidify its relations with Russia and BRICS plus.
At the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) foreign ministers' meeting of late July, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov asserted Russia supported 'one China' policy on Taiwan.
If Russia supports China militarily in case of Taiwan crisis, Sino-Russian alliance will overwhelm the US and become invincible and victorious.
Also, BRICS plus can make a declaration that the US's intervention to China's internal affair is illegal and that China and Taiwan should reunify peacefully.
ASEAN will suffer economically very much if there is a military conflict over Taiwan between China and the US. So, ASEAN can declare that the US's intervention to China's internal affair is illegal and that China and Taiwan should reunify peacefully.
Japan will be a battlefield if China and the US have a military conflict over Taiwan. So, Japan can declare that the US's intervention to China's internal affair is illegal and that China and Taiwan should reunify peacefully.
Japanese warplanes should not join the escort of Pelosi's plane.
Also, China may retaliate by stopping the purchase of US treasury bonds, which would make the US government shut down.
China may confiscate assets of some of US companies operating in China.
China may repel Tesla out of China because of certain violations of China’s domestic regulations, which would make Tesla go bankrupted.
The US wants to let China shoot first. There are many ways for China to retaliate and discipline the US, short of military measures.
Thank you.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.