Russian army has started summer campaign against Ukraine army in Donbas.
Russian summer offensive will encircle Ukraine army in Donbass and force them surrender en masse. Losing 40% of troops, Ukraine's fighting capability will crack.
(The situation map from a tweet by Jomini of the West @JominiW of May 4th 2022)
Most of Russian army which had participated in the besiege of Mariupol already moved northward. Thus, Russian army will make a pincer movement from Izyum and Donetsk to encircle Ukraine army in Donbas and force them to surrender en masse, which will crack Ukraine fighting capability.
Russian army was just waiting for the best condition for a major operation. Unlike muddy spring, summer dry ground enables Russian armored divisions and mechanized infantry divisions to make swift assault. Accustomed to Russian slow move so far, Ukraine army is taken surprise and gets collapsed.
Russian intensive air and artillery bombardment is made to clear Ukraine troops off advance routes.
On May 9th, Russian army took Popasna, a strategic fortified high-ground town located in the eastern flank of the salient of Ukraine army in Donbas. Russian army's breakthroughs to encircle Ukraine army in Donbas has begun.
[Russian breakthrough at Popasna: The picture from a tweet by The OSINT Aggregator @AggregateOsint of May 17th 2022]
On May 12th, Russain army took Rubizhne, a town just north-west of Severodonetsk.
[Russian encirclement of Severodonetsk: The picture from a tweet by The OSINT Aggregator @AggregateOsint of May 12th 2022]
Currently, Russian army’s encirclement in Donbas is twofold. The 1st one is the encirclement of Severodonetsk.
The 2nd one is the encirclement by a pincer movement from Popasna and Belogorovka (near Yampil).
The 3rd one is expected to be even larger. Possibly, a pincer movement from Izyum and Popasna or Donetsk to encircle Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.
Ukraine army in Donbas is getting collapsed.
Russian army’s encirclement operations are very steady and solid. By starting with a smaller encirclement and moving to a larger encirclement, Russian Army can avoid their pincer movements being cut off and counter-encircled. Very tactical and professional.
As Severodonetsk is about to be encircled by Russian army, Ukraine army needs to send reenforcement from Kramatorsk area, Popasna area and Donetsk area, which will make defense of these areas weak and allow Russian army’s breakthroughs there. Ukraine army in Donbas will collapse.
Ukrainian army is in a very bad shape as it pushes barely trained conscripts to the frontline where Russian artillery will eat them up. Conscripts up to age 40+. These are not well trained warriors but teachers, car mechanics or farmers drafted into the war.
As Severodonetsk is about to be encircled by Russian army, reportedly, a conflict grows between military leaders and political leaders in Kiev. [1]
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny insists on the fact that it is necessary to withdraw troops to Slovyansk/Kramotorsk in order not to repeat the fate of Mariupol. Valery Zaluzhny is sure that it makes no sense to lose the most combat-ready units because of one city, but the political leadership does not support his position. [2]
Military leaders’ judgement is right, but they have to obey decisions of political leaders who are puppets of UK and the US that demand Ukraine to fight to death.
After victory in Donbas, Russia can reach an agreement with Kiev that Kiev accepts independence of Luhansk and Donetsk Republics and leases each territories to them for 99 years, that Kiev leases Crimea, Kherson and Mariupol to Russia for 99 years, and that Ukraine becomes neutral.
By leasing Luhansk, Donetsk, Crimea, Kherson and Mariupol, Ukraine can preserve its territorial integrity. By becoming a neutral state, Ukraine can maintain national sovereignty.
These are compatible with China’s assertion that a nation’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity must be protected.
After Russian victory in Donbas, if Kiev doesn't agree with Russia's terms and conditions for a peace agreement, Russian army will just march northward to conquer Kharkiv, Dnipro and Kiev, forcing the Zelensky-clan into exile. Russia will conclude a peace agreement with a new Ukraine government.
After Russian victory in Donbas, China, BRICS and other nations including Turkey can mediate and urge Ukraine and Russia to reach armistice.
After the armistice, China, BRICS and other nations including Turkey can propose that Ukraine should become a neutral state to be a buffer zone between NATO and Russia so as to establish lasting peace and stability in Europe.
Thank you.
Reference:
(1) @Levi_godman tweets of 6:11 PM · May 16, 2022
(2) @Levi_godman tweets of 6:11 PM · May 16, 2022
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
Russian summer offensive will encircle Ukraine army in Donbass and force them surrender en masse. Losing 40% of troops, Ukraine's fighting capability will crack.
(The situation map from a tweet by Jomini of the West @JominiW of May 4th 2022)
Most of Russian army which had participated in the besiege of Mariupol already moved northward. Thus, Russian army will make a pincer movement from Izyum and Donetsk to encircle Ukraine army in Donbas and force them to surrender en masse, which will crack Ukraine fighting capability.
Russian army was just waiting for the best condition for a major operation. Unlike muddy spring, summer dry ground enables Russian armored divisions and mechanized infantry divisions to make swift assault. Accustomed to Russian slow move so far, Ukraine army is taken surprise and gets collapsed.
Russian intensive air and artillery bombardment is made to clear Ukraine troops off advance routes.
On May 9th, Russian army took Popasna, a strategic fortified high-ground town located in the eastern flank of the salient of Ukraine army in Donbas. Russian army's breakthroughs to encircle Ukraine army in Donbas has begun.
[Russian breakthrough at Popasna: The picture from a tweet by The OSINT Aggregator @AggregateOsint of May 17th 2022]
On May 12th, Russain army took Rubizhne, a town just north-west of Severodonetsk.
[Russian encirclement of Severodonetsk: The picture from a tweet by The OSINT Aggregator @AggregateOsint of May 12th 2022]
Currently, Russian army’s encirclement in Donbas is twofold. The 1st one is the encirclement of Severodonetsk.
The 2nd one is the encirclement by a pincer movement from Popasna and Belogorovka (near Yampil).
The 3rd one is expected to be even larger. Possibly, a pincer movement from Izyum and Popasna or Donetsk to encircle Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.
Ukraine army in Donbas is getting collapsed.
Russian army’s encirclement operations are very steady and solid. By starting with a smaller encirclement and moving to a larger encirclement, Russian Army can avoid their pincer movements being cut off and counter-encircled. Very tactical and professional.
As Severodonetsk is about to be encircled by Russian army, Ukraine army needs to send reenforcement from Kramatorsk area, Popasna area and Donetsk area, which will make defense of these areas weak and allow Russian army’s breakthroughs there. Ukraine army in Donbas will collapse.
Ukrainian army is in a very bad shape as it pushes barely trained conscripts to the frontline where Russian artillery will eat them up. Conscripts up to age 40+. These are not well trained warriors but teachers, car mechanics or farmers drafted into the war.
As Severodonetsk is about to be encircled by Russian army, reportedly, a conflict grows between military leaders and political leaders in Kiev. [1]
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny insists on the fact that it is necessary to withdraw troops to Slovyansk/Kramotorsk in order not to repeat the fate of Mariupol. Valery Zaluzhny is sure that it makes no sense to lose the most combat-ready units because of one city, but the political leadership does not support his position. [2]
Military leaders’ judgement is right, but they have to obey decisions of political leaders who are puppets of UK and the US that demand Ukraine to fight to death.
After victory in Donbas, Russia can reach an agreement with Kiev that Kiev accepts independence of Luhansk and Donetsk Republics and leases each territories to them for 99 years, that Kiev leases Crimea, Kherson and Mariupol to Russia for 99 years, and that Ukraine becomes neutral.
By leasing Luhansk, Donetsk, Crimea, Kherson and Mariupol, Ukraine can preserve its territorial integrity. By becoming a neutral state, Ukraine can maintain national sovereignty.
These are compatible with China’s assertion that a nation’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity must be protected.
After Russian victory in Donbas, if Kiev doesn't agree with Russia's terms and conditions for a peace agreement, Russian army will just march northward to conquer Kharkiv, Dnipro and Kiev, forcing the Zelensky-clan into exile. Russia will conclude a peace agreement with a new Ukraine government.
After Russian victory in Donbas, China, BRICS and other nations including Turkey can mediate and urge Ukraine and Russia to reach armistice.
After the armistice, China, BRICS and other nations including Turkey can propose that Ukraine should become a neutral state to be a buffer zone between NATO and Russia so as to establish lasting peace and stability in Europe.
Thank you.
Reference:
(1) @Levi_godman tweets of 6:11 PM · May 16, 2022
(2) @Levi_godman tweets of 6:11 PM · May 16, 2022
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.