UK & the US assume that Ukraine war will continue indefinitely and keep wearing down Russia as long as they keep supplying weapons and money to Ukraine.
For example, a certain UK professor even declares that Putin now faces only different kinds of defeat. [1]
They are wrong.
Firstly, Russian summer offensive will encircle Ukraine army in Donbass and force them surrender en masse. Losing 40% of troops, Ukraine's fighting capability will crack.
Most of Russian army which had participated in the besiege of Mariupol already moved northward. Thus, Russian army will make a pincer movement from Izyum and Donetsk to encircle Ukraine army in Donbas and force them to surrender en masse, which will crack Ukraine fighting capability.
(The situation map from a tweet by Jomini of the West of May 4th 2022 @JominiW)
According to the above situation map made by Jomini of the West (@JominiW), in addition to 2 armored regiments that are currently engaged in fighting at the front line, Russia has 2 more armored divisions & 1 more armored regiment ready around Izyum. They will form a spearhead of a pincer movement from Izyum.
On the other hand, Russian armored brigades which had participated in the besiege of Mariupol must have already moved northward. They will form a spearhead of a pincer movement from Donetsk.
When Russia puts them into the battle together, break through will be made.
The coming Russian summer armored offensive in Donbas would start with intensive air and artillery bombardment to clear Ukraine troops off advance routes, which may include using vacuum bombs. As there is no civilian human shield unlike Mariupol, Russian attack will be most ferocious.
Russian army is just waiting for the best condition for a major operation. Unlike muddy spring, summer dry ground will enable Russian armored divisions and mechanized infantry divisions to make swift assault. Accustomed to Russian slow move so far, Ukraine army will be taken surprise and get collapsed.
Ukrainian army is in a very bad shape as it pushes barely trained conscripts to the frontline where Russian artillery will eat them up. Conscripts up to age 40+. These are not well trained warriors but teachers, car mechanics or farmers drafted into the war.
Secondly, UK & the US assume that Russia would not attack them as they are merely supplying weapons and money. But, Russia would attack UK & US forces to stop weapon supply to Ukraine.
Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said that the US admitted that it was involved in coordinating Ukraine’s combat operations and thereby was directly participating in military actions against Russia. If the Kremlin shares his view, Russia would attack US military forces. [2]
Also, Russian army may intentionally retreat in Kharkiv to let Ukraine army cross the border and attack Russian territory with UK weapons, which will give Russia excuse and justification to attack UK military forces.
For example, Russia can attack and sink HMS Queen Elizabeth, HMS Prince of Wales and USS Harry S. Truman with Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missiles. These aircraft carriers are easy prey as UK & the US have no defense against hypersonic weapons. Sinking them will prove that aircraft carriers are useless and substantially damage US-UK global hegemony.
Also, sinking US & UK aircraft carriers will be the strongest deterrence against NATO & AUKUS intervention toward the coming Taiwan crisis. Thus, it will enhance national security of Sino-Russian alliance significantly.
UK & the US will never retaliate by attacking Russia with nuclear weapons, fearing a global nuclear war. Russia has Sarmat hypersonic nuclear missiles against which UK & the US have no defense.
Thirdly, before long, China, BRICS & all the nations except for UK & the US would urge Ukraine & Russia to reach armistice.
Asian and African nations suffer higher prices of oil & gas and a shortage of foods such as wheat, corn and barley.
Germany expects its economy will shrink due to a shortage of gas. Hungary openly opposes and pledges that it will veto EU's Russian oil embargo to be imposed by the end of this year.
It is only UK & US warmongering elites and military-industrial-complex that advocate and incite a prolonged war in Ukraine.
Thus, China, BRICS and other nations including Turkey will mediate and urge Ukraine and Russia to reach armistice.
After the armistice, China, BRICS and other nations including Turkey will propose that Ukraine should become a neutral state to be a buffer zone between NATO and Russia so as to establish lasting peace and stability in Europe.
As for the economic aspect of the war, no damage is inflicted upon Russia by economic sanctions. Visa and Mastercard will be replaced by UnionPay and Alipay. Apple will be replaced by Huawei, Xiaomi and Lenovo. Ford and Volkswagen will be replaced by BYD. Russian people's lives will be more comfortable and convenient.
Russian economy will be integrated to China's Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in the coming years. As a result of that, Russian economy will be boosted and very much prosperous. Russian people's lives will be more better-off.
China and India will enjoy purchasing Russian oil & gas at relatively less expensive prices while EU nations need to import oil & gas from somewhere else if any and at highly expensive prices.
US economic sanctions against Russia proved that using US dollar would make you at the mercy of US sanctions including asset freezing. More and more nations will go away from US dollar and use local currencies instead.
Incidentally, China will dominate 6G/5G race against the US & EU, which means China will steadily dominate financial, manufacturing and service businesses worldwide.
As a whole, despite UK & the US's desperate efforts to weaken Russia and Sino-Russian alliance, Ukraine war will only facilitate the decline of UK & the US and the rise of Sino-Russian alliance.
Thank you.
References:
(1) "Viewpoint: Putin now faces only different kinds of defeat", BBC News, May 8th 2022
(2) "US in fact admits it coordinates Ukraine’s military operations against Russia — speaker", TASS, 8th 2022
For example, a certain UK professor even declares that Putin now faces only different kinds of defeat. [1]
They are wrong.
Firstly, Russian summer offensive will encircle Ukraine army in Donbass and force them surrender en masse. Losing 40% of troops, Ukraine's fighting capability will crack.
Most of Russian army which had participated in the besiege of Mariupol already moved northward. Thus, Russian army will make a pincer movement from Izyum and Donetsk to encircle Ukraine army in Donbas and force them to surrender en masse, which will crack Ukraine fighting capability.
(The situation map from a tweet by Jomini of the West of May 4th 2022 @JominiW)
According to the above situation map made by Jomini of the West (@JominiW), in addition to 2 armored regiments that are currently engaged in fighting at the front line, Russia has 2 more armored divisions & 1 more armored regiment ready around Izyum. They will form a spearhead of a pincer movement from Izyum.
On the other hand, Russian armored brigades which had participated in the besiege of Mariupol must have already moved northward. They will form a spearhead of a pincer movement from Donetsk.
When Russia puts them into the battle together, break through will be made.
The coming Russian summer armored offensive in Donbas would start with intensive air and artillery bombardment to clear Ukraine troops off advance routes, which may include using vacuum bombs. As there is no civilian human shield unlike Mariupol, Russian attack will be most ferocious.
Russian army is just waiting for the best condition for a major operation. Unlike muddy spring, summer dry ground will enable Russian armored divisions and mechanized infantry divisions to make swift assault. Accustomed to Russian slow move so far, Ukraine army will be taken surprise and get collapsed.
Ukrainian army is in a very bad shape as it pushes barely trained conscripts to the frontline where Russian artillery will eat them up. Conscripts up to age 40+. These are not well trained warriors but teachers, car mechanics or farmers drafted into the war.
Secondly, UK & the US assume that Russia would not attack them as they are merely supplying weapons and money. But, Russia would attack UK & US forces to stop weapon supply to Ukraine.
Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said that the US admitted that it was involved in coordinating Ukraine’s combat operations and thereby was directly participating in military actions against Russia. If the Kremlin shares his view, Russia would attack US military forces. [2]
Also, Russian army may intentionally retreat in Kharkiv to let Ukraine army cross the border and attack Russian territory with UK weapons, which will give Russia excuse and justification to attack UK military forces.
For example, Russia can attack and sink HMS Queen Elizabeth, HMS Prince of Wales and USS Harry S. Truman with Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missiles. These aircraft carriers are easy prey as UK & the US have no defense against hypersonic weapons. Sinking them will prove that aircraft carriers are useless and substantially damage US-UK global hegemony.
Also, sinking US & UK aircraft carriers will be the strongest deterrence against NATO & AUKUS intervention toward the coming Taiwan crisis. Thus, it will enhance national security of Sino-Russian alliance significantly.
UK & the US will never retaliate by attacking Russia with nuclear weapons, fearing a global nuclear war. Russia has Sarmat hypersonic nuclear missiles against which UK & the US have no defense.
Thirdly, before long, China, BRICS & all the nations except for UK & the US would urge Ukraine & Russia to reach armistice.
Asian and African nations suffer higher prices of oil & gas and a shortage of foods such as wheat, corn and barley.
Germany expects its economy will shrink due to a shortage of gas. Hungary openly opposes and pledges that it will veto EU's Russian oil embargo to be imposed by the end of this year.
It is only UK & US warmongering elites and military-industrial-complex that advocate and incite a prolonged war in Ukraine.
Thus, China, BRICS and other nations including Turkey will mediate and urge Ukraine and Russia to reach armistice.
After the armistice, China, BRICS and other nations including Turkey will propose that Ukraine should become a neutral state to be a buffer zone between NATO and Russia so as to establish lasting peace and stability in Europe.
As for the economic aspect of the war, no damage is inflicted upon Russia by economic sanctions. Visa and Mastercard will be replaced by UnionPay and Alipay. Apple will be replaced by Huawei, Xiaomi and Lenovo. Ford and Volkswagen will be replaced by BYD. Russian people's lives will be more comfortable and convenient.
Russian economy will be integrated to China's Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in the coming years. As a result of that, Russian economy will be boosted and very much prosperous. Russian people's lives will be more better-off.
China and India will enjoy purchasing Russian oil & gas at relatively less expensive prices while EU nations need to import oil & gas from somewhere else if any and at highly expensive prices.
US economic sanctions against Russia proved that using US dollar would make you at the mercy of US sanctions including asset freezing. More and more nations will go away from US dollar and use local currencies instead.
Incidentally, China will dominate 6G/5G race against the US & EU, which means China will steadily dominate financial, manufacturing and service businesses worldwide.
As a whole, despite UK & the US's desperate efforts to weaken Russia and Sino-Russian alliance, Ukraine war will only facilitate the decline of UK & the US and the rise of Sino-Russian alliance.
Thank you.
References:
(1) "Viewpoint: Putin now faces only different kinds of defeat", BBC News, May 8th 2022
(2) "US in fact admits it coordinates Ukraine’s military operations against Russia — speaker", TASS, 8th 2022