1. China's initiative on Korean Peninsula affairs
In April 2021, Ambassador Liu Xioming, seasoned brilliant Chinese diplomat, was appointed as the Special Representative of the Chinese Government on the Korean Peninsula Affairs. He is a former Chinese Ambassador to Egypt, North Korea and the UK.
This appointment indicates that China is about to take initiative on Korean Peninsula affairs, that is, denuclearization of North Korea and economic connection between North Korea and South Korea.
Under the Trump administration, meetings was held between President Trump and Kim Jong-un. However, the meetings were just a photo shooting ceremony. There was no substantial progress on denuclearization of North Korea.
Meanwhile, North Korea has been steadily developing new weapon systems. It has developed even a 3000-ton class submarine which can carry three submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
North Korea may resume nuclear tests and test launching of ICBM anytime.
Unlike the U.S., China seeks for peace and stability. Her purpose is the prosperity of people. Currently, the Korean War is still not ended technically. If the war is formally ended and economic cooperation between North Korea and South Korea is advanced, peace and stability of the region will be established and the prosperity of people will be promoted.
Thus, it is expected that China, together with Russia, takes initiative on Korean Peninsula affairs. As the initiative of the U.S. is unthinkable, China would go forward with Russia, North Korea and South Korea, maintaining communication with the U.S.
2. Gradual step-by-step denuclearization in exchange for the relaxation of sanctions
China, working with Russia, is expected to facilitate denuclearization of DPRK by applying a scheme of gradual step-by-step denuclearization in exchange for the relaxation of sanctions, which North Korea has called for.
The 1st phase:
The process would start with humanitarian economic aid to North Korea by China and Russia, including providing vaccines for COVID-19. In return, North Korea would accept international inspections of its nuclear activities.
The 2nd phase:
In the 2nd phase of denuclearization and the relaxation of sanctions, China and Russia would facilitate the connection of railways and freeways between North Korea and South Korea. In return, North Korea accepts the halt of further development of nuclear weapons.
The 2nd phase needs to be accomplished by the end of 2021 as the term of South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who is pro-China, is to be expired in May 2022.
The 3rd phase:
In the 3rd phase of denuclearization, China and Russia would provide security guarantee to North Korea. Also, China would make investment to North Korea to boost its tourism industries. Russia would start laying pipelines to supply natural gas to North Korea. In return, North Korea would hand over to China and Russia a part of its nuclear weapons.
The final phase:
In the final phase of denuclearization and the relaxation of sanctions, China and Russia would invite the U.S. to join the process. The U.S., North Korea, South Korea and China would sign a peace treaty and declare the end of Korean War. In return, North Korea would hand over all of its nuclear weapons to China and Russia.
The establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone which covers Korean Peninsula and Japan would continue to be discussed among the parties concerned.
The US mining companies may be allowed to invest in North Korea's precious metal mines.
3. The establishment of peace and stability and the prosperity of Korean Peninsula
As the end of Korean War is declared, the reason for the US military to stay in South Korea disappears. The U.S. would withdraw its military forces from South Korea. After all, forward deployment of US forces in South Korea has been regarded as useless as they would be destroyed at the initial phase if a military conflict happens.
The connection of railways and freeways between North Korea and South Korea would enable North Korea and South Korea to join China's Belt and Road initiative, which would bring forth huge economic boost for North Korea and South Korea.
Thank you.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
In April 2021, Ambassador Liu Xioming, seasoned brilliant Chinese diplomat, was appointed as the Special Representative of the Chinese Government on the Korean Peninsula Affairs. He is a former Chinese Ambassador to Egypt, North Korea and the UK.
This appointment indicates that China is about to take initiative on Korean Peninsula affairs, that is, denuclearization of North Korea and economic connection between North Korea and South Korea.
Under the Trump administration, meetings was held between President Trump and Kim Jong-un. However, the meetings were just a photo shooting ceremony. There was no substantial progress on denuclearization of North Korea.
Meanwhile, North Korea has been steadily developing new weapon systems. It has developed even a 3000-ton class submarine which can carry three submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
North Korea may resume nuclear tests and test launching of ICBM anytime.
Unlike the U.S., China seeks for peace and stability. Her purpose is the prosperity of people. Currently, the Korean War is still not ended technically. If the war is formally ended and economic cooperation between North Korea and South Korea is advanced, peace and stability of the region will be established and the prosperity of people will be promoted.
Thus, it is expected that China, together with Russia, takes initiative on Korean Peninsula affairs. As the initiative of the U.S. is unthinkable, China would go forward with Russia, North Korea and South Korea, maintaining communication with the U.S.
2. Gradual step-by-step denuclearization in exchange for the relaxation of sanctions
China, working with Russia, is expected to facilitate denuclearization of DPRK by applying a scheme of gradual step-by-step denuclearization in exchange for the relaxation of sanctions, which North Korea has called for.
The 1st phase:
The process would start with humanitarian economic aid to North Korea by China and Russia, including providing vaccines for COVID-19. In return, North Korea would accept international inspections of its nuclear activities.
The 2nd phase:
In the 2nd phase of denuclearization and the relaxation of sanctions, China and Russia would facilitate the connection of railways and freeways between North Korea and South Korea. In return, North Korea accepts the halt of further development of nuclear weapons.
The 2nd phase needs to be accomplished by the end of 2021 as the term of South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who is pro-China, is to be expired in May 2022.
The 3rd phase:
In the 3rd phase of denuclearization, China and Russia would provide security guarantee to North Korea. Also, China would make investment to North Korea to boost its tourism industries. Russia would start laying pipelines to supply natural gas to North Korea. In return, North Korea would hand over to China and Russia a part of its nuclear weapons.
The final phase:
In the final phase of denuclearization and the relaxation of sanctions, China and Russia would invite the U.S. to join the process. The U.S., North Korea, South Korea and China would sign a peace treaty and declare the end of Korean War. In return, North Korea would hand over all of its nuclear weapons to China and Russia.
The establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone which covers Korean Peninsula and Japan would continue to be discussed among the parties concerned.
The US mining companies may be allowed to invest in North Korea's precious metal mines.
3. The establishment of peace and stability and the prosperity of Korean Peninsula
As the end of Korean War is declared, the reason for the US military to stay in South Korea disappears. The U.S. would withdraw its military forces from South Korea. After all, forward deployment of US forces in South Korea has been regarded as useless as they would be destroyed at the initial phase if a military conflict happens.
The connection of railways and freeways between North Korea and South Korea would enable North Korea and South Korea to join China's Belt and Road initiative, which would bring forth huge economic boost for North Korea and South Korea.
Thank you.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.